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Mes1

Day 90 — Wiping Out 2 Days of ProfitsDay 90— Trading Only S&P Futures Daily P/L: -495 Sleep: 4 hours Well-Being: Good 🔔News Highlights: *DOW, S&P 500 END HIGHER IN VOLATILE TRADING, VIX FALLS AS CHIP, BANK STOCKS RALLY 📈Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6984= Bullish Level Below 6974= Bearish Level 💭Today’s Trade thoughts: Started the day down $200+ due to overnight orders hitting stoploss, so it was a grinding back day from there. However, I was pretty tilted from that loss and due to lack of sleep as well. things got worse, I ended up placing a pretty big order at 5 min MOB as well and it hit end of the day but stopped me out before recovering. ended up taking a big loss from that at the close of the day and wiping out 2 days of good progress. 📊Reviewing signals for today (9:30am – 2pm EST): Yesterday at 4:45 PMVXAlgo ES X7 Buy signal 9:00 AM VXAlgo NQ X3DP Buy Signal, :check~2: 9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Overbought/toppy Signal, :check~2: 10:30 AM VXAlgo NQ X1DP Buy Signal :check~2: 10:50 AM ES1! Phase Change: Bearish 10:57 AM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal 11:00 AM Market flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 12:00 PM Market flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 12:14 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Overbought/toppy Signal :check~2: 12:25 PM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal :check~2: 1:00 PM ES1! Phase Change: Bearish :check~2: 1:30 PM Market flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check~2:
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
MES - Descending Channel + Liquidity Sweep at 6,940 | Reversal? What's up traders! 👋 Interesting setup developing on MES1! right now. We've got a descending channel in play, but something caught my eye - a liquidity sweep just happened around 6,940. Let's break it down. What I'm Seeing MES1! is trading at 6,966 inside a descending channel on the 45-minute timeframe. Price has been making lower highs and lower lows - textbook bearish structure. BUT we just saw a liquidity sweep around 6,940 where sellers couldn't close their positions. This is where it gets interesting. When liquidity gets swept and price bounces, it often signals smart money stepping in. The question is: reversal into the FVG zone, or continuation down to the lows? The Liquidity Sweep Setup Price swept below 6,940 - grabbed liquidity from weak longs Sellers couldn't close at those prices - trapped shorts Bounce happening now - buyers potentially stepping in FVG zone at 6,965-6,985 is the first target if reversal confirms If FVG fails to hold, continuation to 6,925 and 6,912.25 lows Market Context The broader picture: S&P 500 fell 0.53% to 6,926.60 today - risk-off sentiment JPMorgan dropped 4% despite beating earnings (credit card cap fears) Financials dragging the market lower Core CPI came in cooler (0.2% vs 0.3%) - but market still selling Trump vs Powell drama continues - uncertainty elevated Forward curve still pricing 7,100+ by end of 2026 - long-term bullish Key Levels to Watch Resistance: 6,965-6,985 - FVG zone (first target if reversal) 7,002 - Day's high 7,036 - 52-WEEK HIGH / Major resistance Support: 6,940 - Liquidity sweep zone 6,925 - Horizontal support 6,912.25 - LOWEST LOW (channel bottom) Two Scenarios Bullish reversal: The liquidity sweep at 6,940 trapped shorts and smart money is stepping in. Price bounces into the FVG zone (6,965-6,985), reclaims it, and pushes toward 7,000+. This would be a classic sweep → reversal pattern. Bearish continuation: The descending channel continues to dominate. Price retests the FVG zone but gets rejected, then breaks below 6,940 and targets 6,925, eventually hitting 6,912.25 (the lowest low). High impact news or Fed drama could accelerate this. My Take I'm NEUTRAL here but watching closely for the reversal. The liquidity sweep at 6,940 is significant - that's where trapped sellers create buying pressure. If we can reclaim the FVG zone and hold above 6,965, the reversal thesis gains strength. However, the descending channel is still intact. Until we break above the upper trendline, the trend is technically bearish. Don't fight the trend unless you see clear reversal confirmation. Watch the FVG zone reaction. That's your tell. Drop your thoughts below - reversal or continuation? 👇
CME_MINI:MES1!
by officialjackofalltrades
S&P Futures Trading Day 89 — Don't Chase: How I Fixed My Morning🔔News Highlights: *STOCKS END LOWER FOR A SECOND DAY, VIX JUMPS AS BANK OF AMERICA, WELLS FARGO FALL AFTER EARNINGS 📈Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6990= Bullish Level Below 6980= Bearish Level 💭Today’s Trade thoughts: I started the day bearish because we had x7 market structure bearish signal yesterday and we broke over key levels overnight during EU session. So when market opened, I was looking for shorts at 1 min MOB but didnt get fill so i made a fomo trade and lost $100. Eventually we dropped to 30 min MOB and I went long from there and made most of my money there and stepped away for the day. 📊Reviewing signals for today (9:30am – 2pm EST): 9:00 AM MES Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check~2: 9:30 AM NQ VXAlgo NQ X3DP Sell Signal :check~2: 9:45 AM ES1! Phase Change: Bearish :check~2: 10:50 AM ES1! Phase Change: Bearish :check~2: 12:00 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DP Sell Signal 12:30 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal :check~2: 1:30 PM ES1! Phase Change :check~2: 1:55 PM ES1! Phase Change: Bullish :check~2: 2:30 PM Market flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check~2:
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DiYWALLST
S&P Futures Trading Day 88 — Bullish Bias vs. Bearish RealityEnded the day +$12 trading S&P Futures... essentially a scratch. I started the session with a strong bullish bias off the 8:30 AM CPI print, which completely blinded me to the bearish flip at 9:48 AM. I spent the morning on the wrong side of the move, battling back and forth—making money on one trade only to give it back on the next. It was a choppy, frustrating session where the market phases shifted constantly, and I felt disconnected from the flow. In hindsight, the only clean play was trusting the 5-minute and 10-minute MOBs. 🔔News Highlights: *DOW ENDS DOWN 400 POINTS, VIX JUMPS AS JPMORGAN NYSE:JPM SLIDES AFTER WEAK EARNINGS 📈Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6990= Bullish Level Below 6975= Bearish Level
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
Day 87 — Sniping the 195M Support for +$260Ended the day +$261.25 trading S&P Futures. I came into the session watching a specific area of interest and took a long trade right at the 30-minute and 195-minute support level of 6953. I added to the position at the market open, and the setup played out perfectly. Once the trade hit my $200+ profit target for the day, I made the decision to lock it in, walk away, and focus on other things rather than risking a give-back. 🔔News Highlights: *NVIDIA TO INVEST $1B IN AI DRUG LAB WITH ELI LILLY OVER 5 YEARS 📈Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6975= Bullish Level Below 6950= Bearish Level
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DiYWALLST
Day 86 — First day back after a long break.Ended the day +$272.50 trading S&P Futures. My goal today was simple: ignore the noise and only execute on a high-probability setup. I spent most of the session just waiting for the perfect alignment. Once the market hit the 5-minute MOB resistance and confirmed with a bearish market structure, I took the short, grabbed a few points, and ran away with the profit. It wasn’t about catching the whole move today; it was about getting in, getting paid, and protecting the capital. 🔔News Highlights: *DOW ENDS UP 270 POINTS, S&P 500 AND NASDAQ SLIP AS INVESTORS ROTATE OUT OF TECH 📈Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6935= Bullish Level Below 6915= Bearish Level
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
3
MES - Descending Wedge at 6,900 | Support Zones Below For Bounce Executive Summary Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures (MES1!) trading at 6,900.50 within a descending wedge on the 4H timeframe. After the S&P 500's third consecutive year of gains (+16.56% 1Y), price is consolidating below the 52-week high of 6,995. Multiple support zones below offer potential bounce opportunities. Descending wedge typically bullish reversal pattern. BIAS: NEUTRAL - Watching Support Zones for Direction Current Market Data Current: 6,900.50 (+0.12%) Day's Range: 6,866.50 - 6,939.75 52-Week: 4,832.50 - 6,995.00 Open Interest: 130.39K Front Month: MESH2026 Performance: 1W: -1.15% | 1M: +0.51% | 3M: +2.02% 6M: +9.41% | YTD: -0.01% | 1Y: +16.56% Key Market Context S&P 500 just completed 3rd consecutive year of gains 50% odds of 4th straight year based on history Valuation indicators at extreme levels (98th percentile) Breadth oscillators on sell signals Equity put-call ratios rising (bearish) VIX still complacent - bullish for stocks Fed rate cuts expected in 2026 AAII bears at lowest since Oct 2024 Technical Structure - 4H Descending Wedge Pattern: Falling resistance trendline (yellow dashed) Falling support trendline (yellow dashed) Wedge narrowing - compression before breakout Typically bullish reversal (70% break up) Key Levels: Resistance: 6,940 - Day's high / immediate resistance 6,970 - Upper resistance (red line) 6,995 - 52-WEEK HIGH 7,000+ - Psychological / breakout target Support Zones (Purple): 6,860 - 6,880 - Upper support zone 6,800 - 6,820 - Middle support zone 6,720 - 6,760 - Lower support zone 6,675 - Major support (red line at bottom) SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH: Wedge Breakout Trigger: Break above 6,970 with volume Targets: 6,995 (52-week high) → 7,000+ → 7,100 BEARISH: Test Support Zones Price tests 6,860-6,880 first support If fails, drops to 6,800-6,820 Deeper support at 6,720-6,760 Major support at 6,675 (must hold) My Assessment Descending wedge at 6,900 with multiple support zones below. Market breadth weakening but VIX complacent. Expect test of support zones before potential breakout. Watch 6,860-6,880 for bounce. Break below 6,675 invalidates bullish thesis. Strategy: Watch for bounce at 6,860-6,880 support Long on wedge breakout above 6,970 Target 6,995 (52-week high), then 7,000+ Stop below 6,675 major support List your thoughts below!
CME_MINI:MES1!
by officialjackofalltrades
MES – NY Open BreakdownBias remains bullish, but MES moves with a lot more intention. Double top formed, neckline broke, and now I’m looking for a measured pullback into value. I’ve mapped out two buy zones and I’m letting price do the work: 🟩 Buy Zone 1 First area of interest. I’ll look for structure, acceptance, and continuation before getting involved. 🟩 Buy Zone 2 Lower zone. If we pull back deeper, I’m happy to wait for a cleaner, higher-quality setup there. MES doesn’t usually sprint, it walks you into the trade if you’re patient enough 🧘‍♂️ NY open will tell me whether there’s opportunity or just noise. Either way, no forcing trades. Process first. Execution second.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by natron
1
S&P Futures Trading Day 85 — Watching the Market Run Without MeEnded the day +$80 trading S&P Futures. My pre-market analysis spotted a potential breakout from the recent downtrend, with the only major resistance looming ahead at the 6890s. I set my plan to short that resistance and look for longs at the 5-minute MOB. Unfortunately, I was just a step too late on the long entry, and the market ripped higher without filling my order. It’s always frustrating to watch a planned move happen without you, but I stayed disciplined, took the small win on the shorts, and respected the bullish market structure. 📰 News Highlights S&P 500 CLIMBS AS ONGOING AI-LED REBOUND PUSHES TECH HIGHER 🔔 VX Algo Signals 9:29 AM — MES Market Structure flipped bullish (X3) ✅ 11:20 AM — VXAlgo NQ X1DP Buy Signal ✅ 2:00 PM — VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal ✅ 3 out of 3 signals worked — 100% accuracy today. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6925 = Bullish Below 6900 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
3
S&P Futures Trading Day 83 — Riding the Trendline: Bearish ThesiEnded the day +$250 trading S&P Futures. Today was a textbook session where the morning analysis played out perfectly. My bearish thesis was strong right out of the gate, based on the price being under the trendline and confirming the bearish market structure. I opened my short positions at the open and set a crucial batch of orders at the 2-hour MOB. The market played out exactly as anticipated, delivering a clean profit day. It's always satisfying when the planning, structure, and execution align this well. 📰 News Highlights *DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ END LOWER AS TECH STOCKS TUMBLE AHEAD OF JOBS REPORT 🔔 VX Algo Signals 9:30 AM — MES Market Structure flipped bearish (X3) (Assuming Yes, aligning with thesis) ✅ 10:00 AM — VXAlgo NQ X3DP Buy Signal (Assuming No, as it's a Buy signal in a Bearish Market) Yes 1:30 PM — VXAlgo ES X1 Oversold signal (Assuming Yes, marking the low) ✅ 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6925 = Bullish Below 6900 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
Day 82 — Falling Asleep During the Session (But Still Green)Ended the day +$130 trading S&P Futures. I came into the session bearish, spotting a setup right at the 10-minute resistance. I managed to execute a short at the open and secure the profit, but the reality of trading US markets from Asia hours caught up with me. I was completely exhausted and literally fell asleep right after that first trade. While I’m happy to be green, it stings to wake up and realize I missed some great movements, including a perfect chance to go long when the market hit the oversold and longer-timeframe MOB levels. 📰 News Highlights *DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ END LOWER AS TECH STOCKS TUMBLE AHEAD OF JOBS REPORT 🔔 VX Algo Signals 9:42 AM — MES Market Structure flipped bearish (X3) ✅ 10:40 AM — VXAlgo ES X1 Oversold signal ✅ 2 out of 2 signals worked — 100% accuracy today. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6925 = Bullish Below 6910 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DiYWALLST
1
Day 81 — 100% Signal Accuracy & Back in RhythmEnded the day +$287.49 trading S&P Futures. After the stress of the last few sessions, I’m finally feeling better and getting back into a solid rhythm. Today was one of those rare days where the system was absolute perfection—we went 6 for 6 on the signals. With the market clinching a 4-day winning streak ahead of the Fed meeting, it was all about trusting the data, following the market structure flips, and executing cleanly without overthinking it. 🔔News Highlights:*DOW ENDS UP 100 POINTS, S&P 500 AND NASDAQ CLINCH 4-DAY WINNING STREAK AHEAD OF FED MEETING 📈Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6855= Bullish Level Below 6842= Bearish Level
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
2
Day 80 — From Green to Red: The Danger of OverstayingEnded the day -$256 trading S&P Futures. I was actually up +$250 early in the session, but I made the mistake of itching for more after playing it safe with small gains all week. I decided to size up to 6 contracts on a Buy signal that looked solid, but the market had other plans. We saw a "flash crash" out of nowhere that stopped me out, only for price to rip all the way back up after tagging the 10-minute MOB. It felt scammy, stressful, and honestly, it ruined the day. It’s a harsh reminder that right now, the longer you stay in this market, the more dangerous it gets. 🔔News Highlights: *S&P 500, NASDAQ END HIGHER, VIX FALLS AS INVESTORS BRACE FOR KEY INFLATION DATA 📈 Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6840= Bullish Level Below 6830= Bearish Level
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
8
Day 79 — 100% Accuracy: When Market Structure Just Works Ended the day +$254 trading S&P Futures. Today was one of those rare "easy" days where the market structure and signals aligned perfectly. We saw some early volatility when news broke regarding MSFT, causing a quick market drop. However, once it was confirmed that the news was fake, the market pumped right back up. I stayed calm, trusted the signals, and let the market play out, resulting in a stress-free green day. Well-Being: Good 🔔News Highlights: *DOW JUMPS 400 POINTS, VIX TUMBLES AS STOCKS END HIGHER ON RATE CUT HOPES 📈Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6830= Bullish Level Below 6800= Bearish Level
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
Day 78 — Surviving the Chop: When Nothing WorksEnded the day +$36.64 trading S&P Futures. Today was super stressful despite the small green finish. The market structure was flipping up and down constantly, with no real trend and moving averages/zones failing to hold. It honestly felt like one of those days where the Market Makers are specifically trying to break trader psychology and force mistakes. Usually, when I see this kind of chop and manipulation, it signals that a big directional move is brewing for later in the week. 📰 News Highlights OPENAI DECLARES ‘CODE RED’ AS GOOGLE NASDAQ:GOOGL CLOSES IN 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6830 = Bullish Below 6800 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
2
S&P Futures Trading Day 77 — Locking Gains in a Scary MarketEnded the day +$247.39 trading S&P Futures. I came into the session with a bullish bias thanks to the market structure, and initially, things looked great as I caught a nice move breaking over the 1-minute MOB. However, the market had some tricks up its sleeve—I got stop-hunted trying to play the breakout zone at 6828, giving back some profits. I didn't let that rattle me, though; I went long again at support off the 11:10 signal, made the money back, and hit my ~$250 goal. With how "scary" and fragile everything feels lately, I decided to just lock in the smaller gains and call it a day. 📰 News Highlights *BITCOIN TUMBLES 5% TO $86K AMID CRYPTO SELLOFF 🔔 VX Algo Signals 9:00 AM — MES Market Structure flipped bullish (X3) ✅ 11:10 AM — VXAlgo NQ X1DP Buy Signal ✅ 2 out of 2 signals worked — 100% accuracy today. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6830 = Bullish Below 6800 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
S&P Futures Trading Day 76 — Trading Away From the Keyboard GoneEnded the day -$921 trading S&P Futures. This was a tough one to swallow. I was busy running around and away from the screens, so I set limit orders at major levels I was confident would reject. Unfortunately, the market had other plans—a surprise short squeeze triggered by the Ukraine peace deal news broke through everything. In hindsight, I should have sized down to 5 MES instead of 10 given I wasn't watching the charts, but truthfully, this felt like one of those unavoidable losses where a macro shock simply invalidates the technicals. 🔔News Highlights: *UKRAINE AGREES TO PEACE DEAL WITH US, TALKS WITH RUSSIA UNDERWAY 📈 Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6790= Bullish Level Below 6740= Bearish Level
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
Day 75 — 3/3 Win Rate on 4 Hours of SleepEnded the day +$234.68 trading S&P Futures. Running on just 4 hours of sleep, I knew I wasn’t operating at 100% this morning. The market open was showing mixed signals, and given how wild the action has been lately, I decided the smartest move was to sit on my hands. I waited until later in the session when things slowed down, found my spots, and sniped a few setups. I ended up going 3/3 on my trades and decided to walk away green before the fatigue set in and the market took it back. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6720 = Bullish Below 6705 = Bearish 📰 News Highlights *FED’S WALLER SUPPORTS DECEMBER RATE CUT, FED CHAIR TALKS
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
Day 74 — Surviving a 242-Point Crash MoveEnded the day +$450.40 trading S&P Futures, but I’m walking away feeling tilted despite the profit. We sniped the 48-minute MOB resistance right out of the gate—just as planned in last night’s video—but I never expected the market to flush 242 points from top to bottom. That is a "market crash" level move. My P/L was a complete rollercoaster, swinging from +$400 to negative and back again. I’m grateful to end green, but after a session this volatile, I’m likely locking my account and taking a mental break tomorrow. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6725 = Bullish Below 6710 = Bearish 📰 News Highlights BITCOIN FALLS 3% TO $87,000, LOWEST SINCE APRIL
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DiYWALLST
2
Day 73 — Perfect Rejection at the 2-Hour MOB | S&P Futures TradiEnded the day +$529.40 trading S&P Futures. Today was a solid bounce back, with the morning analysis playing out almost perfectly. I managed to catch the top of the day and ride the momentum down right as we rejected the 2-hour MOB. It felt good to be in sync with the market structure, especially with the volatility leading up to the Nvidia earnings release. The signals were clean, the execution was sharp, and it was just one of those days where the plan came together. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6725 = Bullish Below 6710 = Bearish 📰 News Highlights NVIDIA SHARES JUMP 5% AFTER 4Q REVENUE OUTLOOK TOPS ESTIMATE
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
Day 72 — AI Bubble Fears Hit the Market | S&P Futures RecapStarting to get a bit worried about the stock market. Everything feels tied to NVDA earnings this week, and we’re starting to lose major support levels across multiple timeframes. I took a few losses overnight, so I went into the morning a bit more hesitant and wanted to wait until the market slowed down before committing. I made some small profits trading off Bia's order and took a few scalp trades off the 1-minute MOB, which helped stabilize the day. This wasn’t a high-conviction environment for me, so I stayed defensive and focused on execution. 📈 Key Levels for Tomorrow 🔼 Bullish Above: 6725 🔽 Bearish Below: 6710 These are the two main pivot levels I’m watching. Above 6725 we may see buyers regain control. Below 6710 the bearish wave accelerates.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
2
Survived a Market Selloff | +$241 Trading S&P Futures (Day 71)Ended the day +$241 trading S&P Futures, but it didn’t come easy. The market started off range-bound, and I traded the highs and lows cleanly — up $300 by 1PM. Then the bottom fell out, and I got caught in a false range break, watching my account swing from +300 to -500. Thankfully, I bought at BIA’s key support zone during the late-session recovery and clawed my way back. Today was all about staying composed when everything flips fast. Two takeaways today: Walk away when you say you will — extra orders can cost you. Range days can break suddenly; keep wider stops when volatility increases. Above 6820 is bullish, below 6782 turns bearish. We’re seeing signs of momentum fading, so tomorrow might bring continuation or deeper retracement.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
5
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zones, Setups for Tue (Nov 18th)ES experienced a notable decline, concluding the day with a sharp downturn but managed a late-session rebound off a significant demand zone. At this juncture, it appears to be a robust corrective phase within an overarching uptrend, with a reasonable probability of a bounce or a range-bound trading day ahead, barring any unexpected developments from data releases or commentary from Federal Reserve speakers. Looking ahead to tomorrow, November 18, 2025, the economic calendar is unusually packed for a Tuesday, as various U.S. data are set to be released following delays caused by a government shutdown. Key indicators to watch that could influence ES during the New York session include the import and export price indexes for October at 8:30 AM ET, industrial production and capacity utilization figures also for October at 9:15 AM ET, and the NAHB housing market index for November at 10:00 AM ET. Additionally, several Federal Reserve officials, including Barr, Waller, Williams, and Kashkari, are scheduled to speak throughout the day. The market is particularly attuned to their insights regarding the likelihood of another rate cut, especially in light of the recently released October FOMC minutes and this week’s jobs report. Given the abundance of potential market-moving information, I would consider the period from 9:15 to 10:15 AM ET as a critical window for "headline risk" tomorrow. The recent market decline can largely be attributed to macroeconomic factors: The S&P 500 cash index ended the day down approximately 0.9%, with the Dow falling around 1.2% and the Nasdaq declining by about 0.8%. This pullback has moved the indices further away from their all-time highs established last month. The selling pressure was particularly acute among mega-cap technology stocks and the AI sector. Major players such as Nvidia, Apple, Palantir, and AMD faced heavy trading as investors began to question whether the recent surge in tech stocks, driven by AI enthusiasm, had outpaced underlying fundamentals ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release on Wednesday. Market sentiment was further dampened by a noteworthy prediction from Stifel's chief strategist, who suggested a potential 5% drop in the S&P 500, targeting a level around 6,350 in the coming months. This outlook was based on concerns regarding high valuations and uncertainties surrounding the Fed’s future policy as delayed economic data begins to materialize. Interestingly, the yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped slightly towards ~4.13% , indicating that today’s selloff was more of a de-risking/profit-taking maneuver specific to equities rather than a reflection of widespread risk aversion typically signaled by bond market movements. From a technical perspective on the ES futures: Intraday trading patterns reflected a continuation of last week’s trend of lower highs and lower lows. Prices faltered near the 6,800–6,805 mark during the overnight session before entering a clear downtrend through the morning. The volume accelerated during the late-morning selloff, ultimately reaching a low around the 6,658–6,660 band, which coincides with established daily demand zones. Following this drop, we observed a pronounced shift in behavior: significant buying volume surged at the lows, leading to a rejected price at that demand zone and a controlled short-covering rally back above 6,690, approaching the 6,700–6,705 range as the day closed. The Nasdaq exhibited a similar trajectory, with a heavy selloff subsequently followed by a recovery. Structurally, today’s activity reflects: A strong continuation of downside movement, stemming from last week’s lower-high structure and macro-driven de-risking, culminating in a liquidity flush into a previously identified demand pocket followed by short-covering toward the close. From a broader perspective, is this the beginning of a genuine downtrend? On the daily chart, ES remains within a larger uptrend originating from the summer lows. A higher peak above 6,900 was established in late October, with the current pullback representing a decline of approximately 3–4% from that peak. Today's trading reached the 6,650–6,670 support region, which previously served as a vital higher low space, before closing back above it. Daily momentum indicators have rolled over but are beginning to flatten, indicating they are not yet deeply oversold. In contrast, the shorter-term 4-hour and 1-hour views present a more bearish outlook: a sequence of lower highs has formed, and the retest of prior higher low levels appears to be underway. Short-term moving averages have shifted downward, and 4-hour momentum remains negative, albeit with initial signs of a slight positive divergence compared to new price lows. In summary: I interpret this phase as a significant corrective downswing within a larger uptrend rather than the onset of a new bear market. The potential for a more substantial correction exists, particularly if Nvidia’s earnings disappoint or if the run of delayed economic data proves weak. However, the day's trading indicates more of a necessary adjustment rather than the onset of a catastrophic decline, aligning with institutional views that this pullback signifies a "healthy reset" following a robust advance, rather than an indication of a market bubble bursting. Should ES close below the 6,650 mark on a daily basis and subsequently begin to print lower highs under that level, I would increase my assessment of the risk of a transition into a more enduring downtrend, with targets around the 6,350–6,400 range over the coming weeks, echoing Stifel's projections. For the time being, however, buyers continue to defend this crucial daily support zone. Key zones to monitor for tomorrow, in the futures market: I identify the following support zones: 6,658–6,650: This region marks today’s New York PM low and aligns with the prior day’s low. It serves as the first critical intraday support level. As long as ES maintains closes above this area on 1-hour and 4-hour charts, I consider the movement to be a corrective phase rather than a broader downtrend.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex