RIO TINTO (Waiting for Confirmation)Rio Tinto – Mining
Market Cap: €1.35 bln
Price: $61.74
6 Month Dividend: $2.24 (c.3.2%) – March 2023 Quote
Dividends recently cut significantly from $4.79 in March 22 (c.5.7%) to $2.24 April 2023 (c.3.2%).
Chart
- Whilst the long term trend is up with higher lows on the large pennant since 1990, we have not made a higher high since May 2008 and this is a little concerning long term.
- On Balance Volume continues increasing which is position and offers some reassurance. We do have our first lower high here on the short term and this could signify a change in price direction.
- In terms of a trade, I’m inconclusive for now. I would like the RSI to come back down to the bottom of the purple RSI pennant at minimum (Short Term Buy potential) or become totally oversold
on the RSI for a confident buy in.
- Any tests of the bottom of the large pennant would be ideal but this may never happen again, time will tell so we focus on the RSI for now.
- At present price is pincered between the 200 week SMA and key support. This is likely an inflection point. A good time to wait and see.
- An upward sloping 200 week is positive but it is also acts as resistance and until we are above it again, it will remain resistance. Getting a hold above it could offer a buying opportunity.
- I will update the chart when we have some confirmation of direction
Miningstocks
Barrick: Dig Deeper! ⛏Barrick still has got heaps of digging operations to do. The share should continue the downwards movement it has started from the last high of wave (iv) in blue and drop below the support line at $12.65. Thereupon, Barrick should enter the yellow zone between $11.97 and $6.32 to develop wave (2) in yellow, whose low should then complete the overarching downwards trend and thus initiate fresh upwards movement. However, there is a 35% chance that Barrick could turn northwards earlier, climbing above the resistance at $22.80. In that case, the share should proceed and rise above $26.07 and $31.22 as well.
Pan American Silver: Resurfacing? 🤿After it had initially been dragged back to the bottom of the blue zone between $13.94 and $21.88, Pan American Silver is currently taking another whack at resurfacing from its depths. By now, the course has managed to establish a new high since the end of wave (ii) in blue and should continue the ascent. We expect the share to leave the blue zone on the northern side, heading for the resistance at $40.11, which should be conquered in due time. However, there is still a 48% chance that Pan American Silver could slip out of the blue zone and drop below the support at $10.61, thus initiating further downwards movement below the next mark at $5.38.
Fresnillo: Easter Egg Hunt 🥚🐣🐰Has Fresnillo gotten lost, hunting for Easter eggs? We don’t think so! We rather understand the share to be swerving, interspersing its way with a little counter movement. Soon, the course should return to the main path and fall below both the supports at GBP 610 and GBP 456.60 to continue the descent. However, a 30% chance remains for Fresnillo to make a more extensive detour. In that case, the share would climb above the resistance at GBP 997 to develop wave alt.B in turquoise in the turquoise zone between GBP 1086.00 and GBP 1292.50 first before heading downwards again.
Gold Gold and GDXJ on 9hr chart
Gold rising here again
-Miners lagging
-Miners may be doubting this move
-Buying back my miners, I still think theres banking risk in the system
None of this should be interpreted as financial advice, I am not a professional or certified financial adviser! all charts, and or analysis' are my personal opinions and observations only!
First Majestic: Room for Maneuver 🤏First Majestic is still wading through the turquoise zone between $12.36 and $6.89 to finish wave 2 in turquoise. To achieve this, the course still has got some room for maneuver – at least until the bottom of the turquoise zone. However, it also might have already completed the current movement, thus continuing the ascent. As soon as that is the case, we expect First Majestic to climb out of the turquoise zone, heading for the resistance at $19.41. There is a 45% chance, though, that the course could drop out of the turquoise zone and slip below the support at $5.30. Should this indeed happen, the share should develop a new low in the form of wave alt.2 in green near $2.91.
Newmont: Flirty 😉Newmont is flirting quite heavily with our alternative scenario, moving closer and closer to the support at $37.45. By now, it is touching the upper edge of the yellow zone between $42.50 and $23.41, on the verge of slumping deeper. There is a 40% chance that the course might do so, dropping below the support at $37.45 to develop wave alt.(2) in yellow earlier already. However, primarily, we still expect Newmont to turn upwards first to head for the turquoise zone between $67.68 and $80.84. There, the share should place the top of wave B in turquoise before starting a fresh downwards movement, which should then lead into the yellow zone and thus below $37.45. Beneath this mark, Newmont should complete the overarching descent in the form of wave (2) in yellow.
Future of RIO, BHP and the sectorI have had a pretty large position in RIO and BHP since end of July 2022, I bought expecting the market to recover and for copper/iron demand to jump from the re-opening of China and the rest of the world. These positions have given me quite the return with their pretty high yields.
Having said this, we can see that the steam from the market's comeback has slowed down, copper, iron and ore prices in general have met some resistance and both RIO and BHP have taken a step back from their highs. I don't think there is much more gain to be made with these stocks even though their structure and their fundamentals are highly attractive.
I like to invest in one sector at a time, trying to spot which one will be the next to glow up. I think the mining and refining sector has had it's run. Therefore, I'll most probably be exiting my positions in both these companies after collecting dividends and the most probable upside from the upcoming earnings.
Extra:
I am mostly exiting my position because of what I said above, but I've slowly started to consider the rising tensions between China and the western world. Though sanctions would be an economical blunder for everyone in play, having your biggest consumers be in a cat fight is certainly not preferable for business.
Fresnillo: Getting Down for Business 👇Since the end of wave B in turquoise, Fresnillo has been continually getting down for business. And the share should keep going as we expect it to march below both the supports at GBP 610 and at GBP 456.60. There is a 35% chance, though, that the course could turn upwards and climb above the resistance at GBP 997 instead. In that case, Fresnillo should enter the turquoise zone between GBP 1085.80 and GBP 1292.80 to develop a new high in the form of wave alt.B in turquoise before moving southwards again.
WATCHING THIS ONE… TMC has great potential!! People are up in arms after photos broke yesterday, showing the terrible conditions of a cobalt mine in the Congo. Of course, the irony here is that a lot of cobalt, along with many other materials powering the green revolution, are often sourced from places like the Congo with little regard for environmental or labor law.
The reason I'm telling you this is that while all this was going on, a report came out of Norway. They went largely ignored by the media in which they announced they found a substantial amount of rare earth minerals on their seabed, many of which are currently being sourced from places like the Cobalt mine and the Congo I mentioned earlier.
And here's the catch. They estimated to have found 3.1 million tons of cobalt alone. So how much is that? Let's do some quick math. The current market rate of cobalt is about $21 a pound. $21 a pound equals about $42,000 a ton. Multiply that by 3.1 million tons. That cobalt is worth 1.3 trillion, give or take, or three times Norway's total GDP.
Now, of course, if Norway were to extract all that cobalt, it would be worth far less than 1.3 trillion because they'd flood the market with it. But nevertheless, when you consider all the other materials they found and how much of it, it's difficult to ignore the deep sea mining opportunity laying under the sea.
Now, here's where I ran into some issues. There's only a few deep sea mining stocks and none of them have been able to commercialize yet, so they're all bleeding money. I was about to give up. Then I came across as CEO of a deep sea mining company with a ticker TMC that has been buying shares of his own company recently.
This intrigued me, so I started researching them more and that's when I noticed that TMC second and third biggest shareholders are Maersk and Allseas Group. If you don't know, the reason that this is such a big deal is because Maersk is the largest container shipping company in the world by tonnage, and AllSeas is a major offshore construction company.
The fact they both have major share positions in TMC, a company that has almost zero ceiling as far as economic and environmental benefits, along with the CEO buying shares all while the company is down 90% from its IPO. Makes me wonder if there's more than meet’s the eye. This might be more of a lottery ticket than an investment, but what do you guys think?
To see what stocks, politicians, hedge funds, and CEOs are buying. Check out Quiver Quantitative
www.quiverquant.com
ADMR: Can it Be The Start of the Markup Phase?Technical Analysis
After moving in the sideways trend for a while, ADMR made a descending broadening wedge pattern. Furthermore, ADMR has broken out of the Falling Wedge Pattern. The Breakout could indicate a possible starting point for the Markup Phase. The Markup Phase is the stage of price breakout of the trading range and starts to rise steadily. Therefore, we are forecasting a potential upside movement to the target area.
All other explanations are presented in the chart.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area.
"Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position in the ADMR"
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First Majestic: Shy…While First Majestic had actually already made it to the upper edge of the turquoise zone between $6.89 and $12.36, it has shied away and drawn back again until the retracement at 61.80%. Thus, we still give it some time to finish wave 2 in turquoise – although it could also continue the ascent from here. As soon as wave 2 in turquoise is completed, First Majestic should indeed move upwards, heading for the resistance at $19.41. However, there is also a 40% chance that First Majestic could slip through the turquoise zone and drop below the support at $5.30. In that case, it should extend the downwards movement until $2.91.
Fresnillo: ReasonableFresnillo is back to being reasonable and – in accordance with our expectations – has moved downwards again. Now, it should keep up this drive to make it below the support at GBP 456.60 and thus into the turquoise zone between GBP 473.60 and GBP 250.00, where it should finish wave (2) in yellow. There is a 35% chance, though, that Fresnillo could escape above the resistance at GBP 997.60, thus triggering further ascent above the next mark at GBP 1379.
SCCO:Correction or Reversal?SOUTHERN COPPER CORPORATION
Short Term - We look to Buy a break of 48.98 (stop at 45.51)
Price action produced another positive week, last week. Trading within the Wedge formation. The bias is to break to the upside. A higher correction is expected.
Our profit targets will be 58.22 and 60.00
Resistance: 48.90 / 60.00 / 80.00
Support: 46.80 / 42.00 / 34.00
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Pan American Silver: Little Room Left… 🤏Pan American Silver has made extensive use of the blue zone between $21.88 and $13.94 and has little room left to finish the overarching downwards movement. As soon as it has completed wave (ii) in blue, though, it should turn around and gather enough upwards momentum to head for the resistance at $40.11. However, there is still a 45% chance that Pan American Silver could break through the bottom of the blue zone and drop below the support at $10.61, which would then trigger further descent below the next mark at $5.38.
Newmont: Humpty Dumpty 🥚🧱Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the king’s horses and all the king’s men
Couldn’t put Humpty together again .
Well, Newmont shouldn’t have such a great fall that it can’t be put together again. Tough, just like the egg headed character from the British nursery rhyme, it is sitting on the big yellow wall between $42.50 and $23.41, in which it should drop to finish wave (2) in yellow. Afterwards, Newmont should turn upwards, heading for the resistance at $86.37.
Agnico Eagle Mines: Knock on Wood…🪵… or rather: Knock on the resistance at $45.42. Thrice, Agnico has rapped on this mark, without surmounting it, however. Now, the bears are back in charge and should continue to drag the price below the support at $31.03. There, Agnico should enter the yellow zone between $19.10 and $10.08 to finish wave (2) in yellow. There is a 35% chance, though, that the bulls could intervene and drag the price above the resistance at $74.50, thus enforcing further ascent above $89.16 as well.
First Majestic Silver AG - Rare OpportunityFirst Majestic silver along with the rest of the mining stocks have been pummeled the last few weeks.. or months..er I mean years. It is my strong opinion that a rare opportunity has opened up in many of these stocks - historical.
These monthly candles really help depict the birds eye view necessary to spot the larger patterns and trend. AG has been forming a large wedge for many years and broke out a few years ago.. Price is now on the launchpad. It might be a slow rocket getting off the ground but it has a tremendous amount of fuel.
First Majestic: Refinishing…Like an artist with their painting, a craftsperson with their handiwork or a cook with their most exquisite dish, First Majestic seems not yet ready to let go of its work in the turquoise zone between $12.36 and $6.89 and apparently wants to add a finishing touch. Thus, it has arched back downwards and could aim for completing wave 2 in turquoise a bit deeper still in the turquoise zone. As soon as the current downwards movement is concluded, though, First Majestic should turn upwards and head for the resistance at $19.41. However, there is a remarkable 45% chance that First Majestic could break through the bottom of the turquoise zone and drop below the support at $5.30, which would then trigger further downwards movement.
Barrick: To the Beach ⛱The bears have grabbed Barrick and are dragging it along southwards to the warm and sandy beach strip between $11.97 and $6.32, which is seated picturesquely below the support at $12.65. Once there, though, there’s not too much time to relax but also work to be done: Barrick should finish the long-term corrective movement in the form of wave (2) in yellow. Afterwards, the bulls should take over so enthusiastically that the beach sand is swirled up and push Barrick northwards. However, there is a 35% chance that the bulls could intervene earlier already and shove Barrick above the resistance at $26.07, thus eliciting further ascent above the next mark at $31.22.
Pan American Silver: Low 🎤 🎧She hit the floor (she hit the floor)
Next thing you know
Shawty got low, low, low, low, low, low, low, low…
“Shawty”, in this case, is Pan American Silver, which is shaking its “big booty” in its “apple bottom jeans” to the beat of Flo Rida’s song Low and is progressing deeper into the blue zone between $21.88 and $13.94. It has not (yet) “hit the floor” but could of course use the blue zone until the bottom to finish wave (ii) in blue. Afterwards, though, Pan American Silver should take off, heading for the resistance at $40.11. However, there is a 38% chance that Pan American Silver could get too low and thus drop below the support at $10.61, which would then trigger further downwards movement below the next mark at $5.38.






















