Gold Stuck Below 4,050$: Bears Eye a Liquidity Flush Under 4,000🔍 Market Context
Gold has been under pressure for four consecutive sessions as expectations for a December Fed cut fade.
The Dollar is supported by growth worries but not strong enough to trigger a clean risk-off bid into gold.
Result: XAU/USD keeps hovering near weekly lows, with sellers patiently watching the 4,000$ liquidity shelf.
📊 Technical Structure – H1 (MMFLOW View)
Overall bias remains bearish, with price capped by a descending trendline from the recent 4,24x high.
Price is compressing inside a tight 4,053–4,000$ distribution range, which also aligns with a Volume Profile POC around 4,053$.
The last leg down is tracked with Fibonacci extensions:
Key downside liquidity cluster: 3,945$ → 3,876$ (1.272–1.618 extensions).
Current PA looks like a bear flag / tight consolidation under resistance – a classic setup for either:
a clean break below 4,000$ into deeper liquidity,
or a shakeout dip into demand before a sharp short-covering bounce.
In short: gold is coiling under POC 4,053$, preparing either a final flush to 3,945–3,876$ or a squeeze back into the old value area.
🎯 Idea Scenarios (for study, not signals)
Scenario 1 – Trend Continuation: Break of 4,000$
As long as H1 closes stay below 4,053$, bearish bias is valid.
A decisive break and retest failure at 4,000$ opens the door toward:
🎯 3,945$ – first liquidity pocket / 1.272 ext.
🎯 3,876$ – deeper liquidity / 1.618 ext. & key demand.
For existing shorts from higher, those zones are logical areas to scale out / manage exits.
Scenario 2 – Liquidity Sweep Then Short-Covering Bounce
If price spikes into 3,945$ ± a few dollars and shows:
long downside wicks, or
clear M15–M30 rejection structure,
Gold could stage a counter-trend rebound toward:
4,000–4,015$, then 4,053$ (POC), and potentially 4,098$ if momentum extends.
This would be a liquidity-reaction play, not a confirmed trend reversal unless bulls reclaim and hold above 4,098$.
Invalidation of the bearish view
A sustained move with H4 closes above 4,098$ would weaken the current down-structure and force a reassessment of the medium-term bias.
⚜️ MMFLOW TRADING Insight
When price is trapped under POC, patience beats FOMO.
Let the market either:
break and accept below 4,000$, or
reclaim 4,053$–4,098$
…before committing heavily.
Bears still have the upper hand, but bulls will only regain narrative if they defend 3,945–3,876$ and push price back into the old value area.
“In a downtrend, your job isn’t to call the bottom – it’s to sell weak rallies and let liquidity do the heavy lifting.”
