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Momentumshift

XAUUSD- Strength near 4000 key InflectionThe Support Level The 4000 zone has acted as a key inflection point, both as support and resistance, since October. Price has been oscillating around this level, consistently finding strength above it and struggle below it. At present, the market is once again retesting this crucial level. As price approaches 4000, several technical cues are signaling potential underlying strength. Loss of Downside Momentum To begin with, there is a clear loss of downside momentum. We witnessed a sharp 100-point decline from the 13 Nov swing high in just three candles. This was followed by a -179 point slide over six candles (acceptable) but then a much slower -106 point drop stretched across 18 candles. Why did the market suddenly take significantly longer to cover a similar distance from the 14 Nov highs? This deceleration suggests waning bearish momentum as price nears support. This observation is further validated by a bullish RSI divergence forming at the lows. Decreasing Volumes Additionally, the recent downswing from 4054 has been accompanied by declining volume- a classic sign of seller exhaustion. When falling price is not supported by expanding volume, it often hints at an impending reversal or at least a relief bounce. Potential for Buy Structurally, the market is still in a short-term downtrend, printing lower highs and lower lows since the 13 Nov peak. Aggressive traders may look for a bullish reversal signal in the 4000 demand zone, while conservative traders might prefer waiting for a confirmed shift in market structure, a higher high followed by a higher low on lower timeframes, before positioning long. At this juncture, it’s difficult to justify a fresh short, given the confluence of support, momentum divergence, and volume behavior. How do you usually evaluate the market when it approaches major support or resistance zones? 📣Disclaimer: Everything shared here is meant for education and general awareness only. It’s not financial advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Do your own research, manage your risk, and make sure you understand what you’re getting into.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bravetotrade
9
BTCUSD Analysis – Riding the Mind Curve & Bullish Setup Target🔎 Technical Narrative & Market Structure Analysis Bitcoin is currently respecting a textbook parabolic support structure represented by the Black Mind Curve—a dynamic visual model reflecting the psychology of crowd behavior transitioning from uncertainty to confidence. This curved structure often precedes strong bullish continuation patterns, especially when paired with evidence of smart money involvement. The current price action shows sequential higher lows, each of which is supported directly by the Mind Curve. These bounces confirm demand stepping in consistently at higher levels, a strong sign of controlled accumulation and momentum building. 🧠 Key Chart Components Explained ✅ 1. Mind Curve (Dynamic Support) A custom-drawn parabolic curve reflects the ongoing upward force from buyers. Bitcoin has tested and bounced from this curve multiple times, showing it is respected by market participants. As price hugs the curve more tightly, the compression could lead to a volatility breakout. ✅ 2. Major BOS (Break of Structure) A significant market structure break occurred as price took out a previous swing high. This BOS confirms a shift in market sentiment from ranging/sideways to uptrend formation. The BOS now acts as a reference point for bullish momentum and could serve as support on a potential retest. ✅ 3. QFL Zone (Quantity following line ) Located just below the BOS, this zone marks the last area where aggressive buyers stepped in before the breakout. These levels are often defended on a retest and are used by institutional traders to re-enter positions. ✅ 4. Evidence Candle This sharp bullish impulse candle is what we call an "evidence candle"—it pierces minor resistances with strength and volume. It represents institutional-level interest and confirms smart money accumulation. Such candles typically precede either continuation or minor pullback for re-accumulation. ✅ 5. Reversal Zone (Target Zone) This zone lies ahead at approximately 112,500 to 113,000, a confluence of previous supply, key psychological level, and potential liquidity pool. It's the next logical area where price may pause, react, or break through if momentum sustains. ⚔️ Scenarios to Watch 🟩 Bullish Scenario: Price continues riding the curve support upward. Breaks and closes above the Reversal Zone, ideally with volume and continuation candle. Potential upside extension toward 114,000–115,000. 🟨 Neutral/Consolidation Scenario: Price consolidates just below the Reversal Zone. May form a flag/pennant or triangle structure. Bullish continuation likely if the curve holds beneath. 🟥 Bearish/Invalidation Scenario: Price breaks below the Mind Curve and BOS, closing below with momentum. This would signal a potential breakdown of the bullish structure. Invalidation zone likely sits below 110,000, and a breakdown could open room to revisit the 108,500–109,000 area. 📌 Confluence Factors Supporting the Bullish Bias: Respect of Mind Curve over time = hidden institutional support Presence of BOS and QFL = structure and order block confluence Evidence candle = high-volume trigger point Reversal Zone = logical magnet for price, supported by liquidity and previous reactions 📈 Summary & Trading Thesis Bitcoin is currently in a bullish microstructure within a larger range. The parabola-style Mind Curve suggests that this structure is maturing toward an inflection point. The break above BOS, evidence of strength, and alignment with demand zones all support a move toward the 112,500–113,000 Reversal Zone. If momentum sustains, this could become the start of a broader bullish leg. 📢 Final Thought: While the setup is bullish, discipline and patience are key. Watching how price behaves around the Reversal Zone will be critical. A clean breakout or solid rejection will provide the next high-probability signal.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
S&P 500 Weakness Relative to Gold?In this weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index denominated in gold (SPX/XAU), I’m observing a noticeable loss of momentum (relative to gold prices). This is evidenced by the decreasing gap between the 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and the 130 EMA at the latest local high compared to the previous one. Additionally, there is a shift in the 'behavior' of these moving averages — they have entered a phase of 'indecision' regarding trend direction. This is quite significant because, for decades, these moving averages have reliably provided a single crossover, followed by a clean multi-year trend. The last period when there were as many crossovers between the 50 and 130 EMAs within such a short time span was between early 1967 and late 1971. The period marked by the final MA-crossover of that range ultimately led to a dramatic decline of about 95% relative to gold, lasting approximately 8 years and 5 months, culminating in a bottom in January 1980. I also see additional evidence in the form of price struggling to hold above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the major cycle peak of late 2000. While price did break above this level several times in 2021 and even managed to hold above it for about six weeks (late November 2021 through early January 2022), it has since failed to reclaim that level. The most recent attempt in February of this year led to a rejection that resulted in a 16% decline over the subsequent eight weeks. Currently, the price relative to gold remains about 15% below that critical level. If we consider that a 72% decline in the S&P 500 (relative to gold) would be required to revisit the major cycle low seen in early September 2011, it’s clear that there’s significant room for downward movement. It’s important to note that the S&P 500 could continue delivering positive returns in nominal terms for years to come, regardless of how it performs against gold. The point here is to highlight a potential argument for relative weakness in the S&P 500 when compared to gold, which has been a strong performer so far this year. If this chart is indicative of broader trends, gold has a good chance to continue outperforming, even if this index continues to grind upward.
SP:SPX
by JamesBrown