Monero: brave enough for a bounce? key levels to watch todayMonero. Who’s brave enough to touch the privacy bad boy after this liquidation candle? Recent headlines keep hammering privacy coins with more regulatory heat and talk of delistings, and the market clearly dumped first, asking questions later. Now price is sitting on a major 4H demand zone that last launched the big pump on this chart.
On the 4H, we just flushed into the 300 area with RSI buried in oversold and starting to curl up, hinting at bullish divergence. Volume profile shows a fat node above around 360 where a lot of bags changed hands, so any bounce has “magnet” potential. I’m leaning toward a short‑term relief rally rather than fresh lows right away, especially if sellers start to stall here.
My base case: hold 300 and we squeeze back into 345‑365, with a stretch target near 390 if momentum really clicks ✅. If 300 gives way on strong volume, the trap flips and I’ll look for continuation down toward 260‑270 instead. I’m waiting for a clear 4H reversal candle to join a bounce play here… and yeah, I might be wrong, but catching panic after forced selling is where some of the best trades are born.
Monero
XMR Accumulation Time, dont miss the entrySUMMARY - DW no longer accepts BTC, the demand for this has increased significantly as many more users must acquire this to transact on that platform. Technicals lean bull
This post will be broken down by
Section 1 - Metcalfes law X XMR
Section 2 - Technical Overview
1. Quick refresher: Metcalfe’s Law (applied correctly)
Metcalfe’s Law says:
Network value ∝ (number of active users)²
Key word: active.
Not holders.
Not speculators.
Participants who actually need the network to function.
This distinction matters a lot for XMR.
2. Forced migration ≠ organic adoption — but it still counts
If BTC is no longer accepted on a platform and users are forced to use XMR, you get:
Immediate increase in:
Active wallets
Transactions
Liquidity demand
Not just “interest” — usage
From a Metcalfe perspective:
This is high-quality node growth
Each new user must interact with others using XMR
That creates real network connections, not passive edges
This is actually stronger than speculative onboarding.
3. Why XMR benefits more than BTC under Metcalfe’s Law
BTC already has:
Massive user base
Diminishing marginal network effects
Many users who don’t transact
XMR has:
Smaller but high-intent user base
Utility-driven usage (privacy, censorship resistance)
Much higher marginal value per new user
In Metcalfe terms:
Adding 100k forced users to BTC barely moves the needle
Adding 100k forced users to XMR can reshape the network graph
This is convex growth.
4. The “forced-use flywheel”
Here’s where it gets interesting.
When a platform forces XMR usage:
Users acquire XMR
Merchants hold or recycle XMR
Liquidity deepens
Infrastructure improves (wallets, bridges, rails)
Friction drops
XMR becomes default elsewhere (DW)
That’s second-order network expansion, which Metcalfe’s Law underestimates.
BTC already ran this loop years ago.
XMR is still early in it.
5. Price impact vs network value
Metcalfe’s Law explains value, not price timing.
Forced adoption increases velocity
Velocity increases liquidity premiums
Liquidity premiums reduce risk
Reduced risk raises valuation multiples
Price pressure increases because XMR must be held and circulated
Supply is relatively inelastic (tail emission still small vs demand spikes)
This is why XMR often moves in step-function jumps, not smooth curves.
6. The critical risk (and limitation)
Metcalfe’s Law only holds if:
Users stay after the forcing function
They reuse XMR beyond that platform
OTHERWISE DW may also start accepting ZEC
If users:
Enter → transact → exit immediately
Or use custodial wrappers that abstract XMR away
Then the network graph does not densify, and the effect fades.
Persistence matters more than onboarding count.
7. Net assessment
If BTC is banned and XMR is forced:
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
Structural demand increase
Durable network expansion
Nonlinear valuation impact
WORST CASE
Temporary volume spike
Short-term price volatility
Minimal long-term effect
but with a long term floor at 200, the R:R is favorable
But asymmetry favors XMR.
Metcalfe’s Law applies extremely well to XMR in forced-adoption scenarios because:
XMR users are active by necessity
Each new user adds disproportionate network value
Privacy coins scale through usage density, not hype
TECHNICALS
1. Trend & Structure (Weekly)
Primary trend: Still up on the higher timeframe.
Price is well above the 200-week MA (~203) → long-term bull structure intact.
the last 3–4 candles show distribution / pullback behavior after a blow-off top near ~$600–650. This appears to be a retracement rather than a trend reversal as there are still signs of price acceleration.
This looks like a healthy weekly pullback, not a trend break—yet.
2. 200-Week Moving Average (Orange)
Strong historical cycle support
3. Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
Upper band expansion preceded the spike = classic volatility expansion
Price tagged the upper band hard, then snapped back inside
Current candle closing near the BB midline (~403)
This is mean reversion, not breakdown
This is textbook post-impulse behavior.
4. Volume
Huge volume spike on the recent sell-off candle
Volume spike occurred above the 200-week MA
Often this marks local bottoms, not tops, on higher timeframes
**Watch next 2–3 weekly candles**
Falling price + falling volume = bearish continuation
Flat price + declining volume = consolidation
Green candle + solid volume = next leg setup
5. MFI (Money Flow Index – 14)
Currently around 51
Previously overheated near 70+
Now reset to neutral without entering oversold
MFI holding 40–50 zone = accumulation range
6. Key Levels to Watch
Support
~$400 → BB midline + psychological
~$350 → prior structure + consolidation zone
~$300 → must-hold for bull continuation
~$200 → macro support
Resistance
~$450–480 → local supply
~$550–600 → prior high close
TLDR; Im going to ACCUMULATE. Not financial Advice and for research/entertainment purposes only =)
Monero at support, I get a feeling that it isn't overJust as there is a reaction at resistance; whenever a strong resistance level is hit, the market always produces a retrace or correction. In reverse, when the action reaches support a reversal can happen even if only a small one.
Monero is now trading at support after three red weeks. The session that produced the all-time high can also be considered negative.
Now, trading at support, there can be a reversal and this reversal can lead to a challenge of the same resistance from last month. It works in two ways.
If the bullish reversal stops around $600-$650 we know a lower high will result followed by lower prices. If the rise can go beyond this level, we know the ATH range can be tested as resistance once more.
If Monero can go toward a new all-time high fully depends on price action—live. It is hard to make such a prediction because the market already produce outstanding growth so anything goes.
Lower high, double-top or higher high, the chart calls for a reaction at support. This means some sort of bullish action before XMRUSDT moves lower. There is growth potential on this chart.
Since the entire market is turning bullish now, this supports the signals here present for a new rising wave.
Namaste.
#XMR Triangle Is Almost Complete — The Final Flush Could Be Brut
Yello Paradiser! Are you watching closely, or are you going to be late again to one of the cleanest wave-based setups on #XMR? We may be approaching the final stages of a larger corrective cycle, but the trap is being set — and only those with patience and discipline will be ready when the real move begins.
💎#Monero has been unfolding in a textbook five-wave decline from its major high near $800, and right now, we are deep in wave 4 of an extended wave 5 — a critical stage where most traders either overcommit too early or get completely shaken out before the actual reversal. The current structure is forming a contracting triangle, which is a classic characteristic of wave 4. These patterns are notorious for building tension and compressing volatility before a sharp final move in the direction of the prevailing trend.
💎The price action is also perfectly respecting a well-defined descending channel, reinforcing the idea that the broader bearish structure remains intact. This channel, along with the triangular consolidation, suggests that there’s one final flush to come — the terminal wave 5 of the extended fifth — which could complete the entire corrective cycle from the macro top.
💎Our projected completion zone for this entire move lies in the $400–$420 region. This area isn’t just a psychological round number zone; it also represents the convergence of structural channel support and historically reactive levels from earlier phases of the trend. This makes it a high-probability demand zone, where we expect long-term buyers to step in, especially if broader market sentiment hits capitulation.
💎It’s important to highlight that the invalidation level for the current count is sitting around the $600 mark. A sustained move above that level would negate the triangle and invalidate the current interpretation of this being a final wave 4–5 sequence. Until then, however, the structure remains technically valid and offers a clear road map.
💎As with all wave 4 triangles, we must remain extremely cautious. These patterns are designed to frustrate both sides of the market, producing multiple fake breakouts and whipsaws. Acting prematurely — especially in a late-stage wave structure — can be extremely dangerous, and most traders lose capital here not because they’re wrong, but because they’re impatient.
💎If the final wave 5 unfolds as expected, we’ll likely see sharp liquidation and emotional selling that clears out weak hands. That would align with the psychology of a terminal move — marked by panic, exhaustion, and climax volume. It’s at that moment, when everyone gives up, that we’ll begin hunting for the reversal confirmation.
💎A big liquidation event, which will first take both longs and shorts and fully get rid of all inexperienced traders before the real move happens, is very close to happening again, so make sure you are playing it safe, Paradisers. It will be a huge money-maker for some and a total disaster again for the majority.
Stay focused Paradisers , follow the structure, and avoid emotional decisions. As always — timing and disciplined execution will separate those who succeed from those who just watch the market move without them.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
[LOI] - Levels of Interest - SCRT - SCRT
Key Points
Secret Bridge for XMR Enhances Privacy in Cross-Chain Transfers: It addresses exposure risks in standard bridges by enabling confidential bridging of Monero (XMR) to Secret Network as sXMR, preserving anonymity while allowing DeFi participation without revealing transaction details.
Long-Term Bullish Outlook for SCRT: Driven by growing demand for programmable privacy in DeFi and AI.
Crypto Macro Influences: Recent oil seizures and tariffs may boost illicit trade (estimated at $2-3 trillion globally), increasing need for privacy tools like SCRT; pro-crypto shifts under Trump could spark altcoin growth, but economic pressures like inflation might delay it.
AI Push in Privacy Landscape: Secret Network leads with confidential AI via TEEs, ensuring private data processing; this aligns with rising enterprise adoption (projected 60% by 2027) amid data breach concerns, potentially positioning SCRT as a hub for secure AI.
Please note that this is a preliminary research paper and you should continue to do your own research (DYOR). Information about assets can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay updated with the most recent developments.
Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA:
Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 (Or S1-S3) has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
I am not a financial advisor.
The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
TheBitcoinGeneration
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by
Structure Still Bullish On XMR (3D)📈 Bullish Market Structure
From the point where the green arrow is marked on the chart, price has clearly entered a strong bullish phase. Based on the current price behavior, market structure, and wave development, this movement strongly resembles a Bullish Diametric pattern, which typically appears during complex corrective structures before continuation.
At the moment, price is moving inside Wave F, which is the current active leg of this pattern. Importantly, Wave F has already delivered a healthy and controlled correction, both in price and structure. This correction is constructive and aligns well with the characteristics expected in a valid Diametric formation.
🟢 Key Support Zone & Market Expectation
The green highlighted zone on the chart represents a high-probability support area. From this region, we expect price to:
Hold above support
Spend some time building a base (accumulation)
Complete a time correction rather than a deep price correction
After this consolidation phase, the market is expected to transition into Wave G.
🚀 Wave G Outlook – Bullish Continuation
In a Bullish Diametric pattern, Wave G is inherently bullish and often leads to a strong continuation move in the direction of the main trend. If the structure plays out as expected, Wave G could deliver a powerful impulsive move, pushing price toward the predefined upside targets.
🎯targets : Targets : 668$ _ 1100$
💡 Trading Strategy – Smart Risk Management
The green zone is considered an optimal DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) entry area
Avoid chasing price; let the market come to your levels
Scale into positions gradually to manage risk effectively
This approach allows traders to stay flexible while positioning themselves early for the anticipated bullish expansion.
❌ Invalidation Level – Risk Control Is Key
This analysis will be invalidated if:
A weekly candle closes below the invalidation level marked on the chart
A weekly close below this level would signal a structural failure of the pattern and require a full reassessment.
If you have a coin or altcoin you want analyzed, first hit the like button and then comment its name so I can review it for you.
This is not a trade setup, as it has no precise stop-loss, stop, or target. I do not publish my trade setups here.
Can LITECOIN replicate MONERO's rally??Just some fun chart trivia but we can't deny the obvious. And that's that Litecoin (LTCUSD) has been printing an (almost) identical price action since 2017 with Monero (XMRUSD).
That's up until a little less than a year ago when the two started to diverge aggressively as XMR (orange trend-line) entered a massive rally that broke above its ATH Resistance of the past 2 Cycles and made a new All Time High (ATH), while LTC has been under Lower Highs. However it hasn't broken below its Bull Cycle consolidation, which also shared with XMR before the latter broke aggressive to the upside.
So what do you think? Can LTC follow XMR's lead and make an ATH or it will continue dropping into the new Bear Cycle?
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Monero Price Action Report — Breakout Strength and Target ZoneXMR/USDT Bullish Breakout Blueprint! 🚀📈 (Swing & Day Trade Plan)
Description:
Monero is awakening! 🦋 A dynamic breakout is in play, offering a clear technical setup for both swing and day traders. Here’s your professional blueprint to navigate this opportunity.
📊 Trading Thesis: Bullish Breakout
The setup is confirmed by a breakout above the key Weighted Moving Average (WMA) dynamic resistance near 420.00. This signals a potential shift in momentum and opens the door for a bullish move.
🎯 Execution Plan
🟢 Entry Zone: Any price AFTER a confirmed breakout & close above 420.00. Look for a retest of the WMA as support for an optimal risk-reward entry.
⛔ Stop Loss (Risk Management): A logical stop loss can be placed below 390.00, which is under the recent support and WMA structure.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is my suggested SL based on my strategy. You MUST adjust your position size and stop loss based on your own risk tolerance and capital. Always wait for breakout confirmation before placing your SL.
🎯 Profit Target (Take Profit): Our primary target is the 460.00 zone. This area represents a strong historical resistance level and could coincide with overbought conditions. Secure your profits proactively!
💡 Professional Note: This is my initial target. You are free to take partial profits earlier or trail your stop. "Make money, then take money" – manage your trade actively!
🔍 Key Levels & Rationale
Bullish Trigger: WMA Breakout > 420.00
Invalidation Level: < 390.00 (Bullish structure broken)
Target Zone: 460.00 (Major Resistance & Profit-Taking Zone)
🌐 Related Pairs & Market Correlations
Diversify your watchlist! The crypto market is highly correlated. Movements in XMR often relate to these assets:
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance): 📉 A decrease in BTC.D often fuels altcoin rallies, which is bullish for XMR.
BTC/USDT: 👑 The King leads, alts follow. A strong, stable, or rising Bitcoin is generally positive for the entire crypto market, including Monero.
Privacy Coin Sector:
CRYPTOCAP:ZEC (Zcash) & NASDAQ:DASH 📊
Key Point: Watch these for sector-wide momentum. A bullish move in XMR is often mirrored in other major privacy coins, confirming a sector trend.
Major Alts:
ETH/USDT 💙 & XRP/USDT ⚡
Key Point: Strength in large-cap alts like ETH and XRP creates a risk-on environment, which is beneficial for mid-cap coins like Monero.
✅ Final Checklist Before Entering:
✅ Breakout & close above WMA (420) confirmed?
✅ Volume supporting the move?
✅ SL set according to MY risk management?
✅ Related pairs (BTC, ETH) showing strength?
Let me know your thoughts in the comments! 💬 Are you bullish or bearish on XMR?
Like & Follow 👍 for more high-quality, actionable trade ideas!
#TradingView #XMR #Monero #Crypto #SwingTrading #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Breakout #WMA #BTC #Altcoins #DeFi
$MONERO it was #Monero it is! One Legion - One Promise! ElliotWCRYPTOCAP:XMR is alive like never before.
Open Interest and funding rates remain healthy. Netflow is still trending outward, which strongly suggests that larger players are taking profits with the intention to re-enter at lower levels. What we are seeing right now is not weakness — it is a normal and expected corrective phase.
We are currently hunting liquidity on the long side, not breaking structure. This pullback was anticipated before the pump, as outlined in the original analysis:
Check it out! Elliot Wave 3 Prognose Monero
Elliott Wave Structure
There are two valid scenarios:
Scenario 1: Aggressive structure (1-2-1-2-1-2 at the start of Supercycle Wave 3)
In this case, Wave 4 is expected to be fast and sharp, correcting into the 0.236 – 0.5 Fibonacci zone.
We are already trading around the 0.382, which is completely healthy. Nothing abnormal here.
Scenario 2: Standard structure (1-2-3-4-5)
This would imply a longer consolidation range during Wave 4. Even in this scenario, the bias remains clearly bullish.
Regardless of how Wave 4 completes, there is no bearish signal. The fast dump is structurally normal and does not invalidate the trend.
Key Levels
Primary corrective target (Wave 4): ~ 609.91 USD
Invalidation level: 471.66 USD
Bearish scenario: Not active
After Wave 4 completes, we expect a sub-Wave 5 inside the larger Wave 3, developing over the coming days to weeks.
This cycle will not resemble previous ones. We are in Supercycle Wave 3, meaning Wave 5 should be comparable in strength to Wave 3 itself.
Targets
From the projected Wave 4 bottom around 610 USD, a +95–96% expansion is expected:
First major target: ~ 1081 USD
Psychological levels like 1000 USD are unlikely to act as strong resistance
First real resistance zone: ~ 1080 USD
From there, a gradual move toward 1200 USD
Following that, a Supercycle Wave 4 could develop and potentially extend into late 2026, before the final Wave 5 and the next macro bear cycle.
PS: On the #XMR/#BTC chart, Monero has reached the 2.618 extension after breaking all major structures. This is a very strong signal. A clean 2.618 hit is often the ideal level for continuation, especially when followed by a fast and aggressive pullback.
With multiple BOS (Breaks of Structure) confirmed on #XMR/BTC, the probability remains high that the broader uptrend will continue to expand.
This setup is not comparable to ZEC or other so-called “privacy coins.”
CRYPTOCAP:XMR stands alone structurally, fundamentally, and historically.
Monero remains the only real privacy coin.
Trust the structure. Trust the wave.
$Monero it was - #Monero it is.
Shinyflakes we hold until the end.
XMRUSD Bear Cycle starting. $215 possible Target.Last time we looked at Monero (XMRUSD) was exactly 3 months ago (October 14 2025, see chart below) giving a buy signal at the bottom of its long-term Channel Up, which quickly hit our Target:
This time we are turning bearish long-term as the price is not only approaching the top of its 2-year Channel Up (green) but also the Top Fib of its 8-year Channel Up. At the same time the 1M RSI is vastly overbought at 85.00, typical of the Cycle Top of the previous two Cycles.
With the last one bottoming on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, just above the 1M MA100 (red trend-line), we estimate that the emerging Bear Cycle will hit at least $215 before bottoming.
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Monero Breaks All-Time Highs As Bullish Structure Points HigherMonero (XMRUSD) is now aggressively breaking into new all-time highs, in line with expectations. On the monthly chart, price action continues to suggest significant room for further upside. Monero may be unfolding a five-wave bullish impulse, or alternatively, breaking out from a larger bullish triangle formation. In both scenarios, the technical picture supports much higher levels.
On the weekly timeframe, we are still tracking a projected extended wave (5) of wave 3. Fibonacci cluster targets continue to point toward the 1000 area before a higher-degree wave 4 correction is expected to unfold. At the moment, price appears to be rising within subwave 3 of an ongoing five-wave bullish impulse for wave (5). This suggests that additional gains are likely in the near term.
That said, traders should remain aware of a potential subwave 4 pullback, which would be a normal part of the structure, before a renewed bullish continuation in subwave 5 of wave (5) of 3.
XMRUSD: Multi-Year Monthly Breakout Signals New Macro CycleMonero (XMR) is breaking out on the monthly timeframe after a 105-month (~3,200 days) compression phase, forming a long-term ascending triangle.
Price has respected a rising support trendline since the 2016–2017 cycle while repeatedly testing a flat macro resistance zone, which has now been decisively broken with strong bullish momentum. The current monthly candle shows expansion in range and volume, signaling a potential regime shift rather than a short-term move.
Key observations:
- Multi-year higher lows against horizontal resistance
- Clean monthly close above resistance
- Long consolidation typically precedes impulsive moves
- Structure suggests price discovery phase may be beginning
If the breakout holds, XMR could be entering a new long-term bullish cycle, with upside targets extending significantly higher over the coming years.
Cheers
Hexa
Monero (XMR) Just Woke Up: Structural Breakout AnalysisWhile the market is distracted by the majors, Monero ( CRYPTOCAP:XMR ) has quietly engineered a massive structural shift on the daily timeframe.
Monero just broke its multi-month resistance with impulsive volume. The "Roof" has officially become the "Floor."
No wicks.
Pure demand.
Structure shift.
Is this the start of a new macro run? Let's wait and watch.
Monero XMR price analysisIs CRYPTOCAP:XMR preparing to break its ATH?
Looking at the #XMRUSDT chart, it feels like #Monero is approaching a critical moment.
After years of consolidation, a confirmed hold above $520 could mark the start of a real harvest season 🌾
🔓 This level may become the key trigger that shifts CRYPTOCAP:XMR into a new market phase.
🎯 So what’s the real target for #Monero?
▪️ $1250?
▪️ Or even much higher — $4300?
💰 Current market cap is around $7.9B.
Do you believe CRYPTOCAP:XMR is capable of growing to:
➡️ $23B
➡️ or even $80B?
🤔 Share your thoughts — is #Monero ready to surprise the market again?
______________
◆ Follow us ❤️ for daily crypto insights & updates!
🚀 Don’t miss out on important market moves
🧠 DYOR | This is not financial advice, just thinking out loud
Monero Confirmed BreakoutMonero CRYPTO:XMRUSD has broken the local high at 470 with a Weekly closing bar of 470.38.
Even if by 0.38 this is still a rule followed to confirm the breakout.
The next Resistance will be at the All Time High at 517.60. Given the breakout confirmation and momentum it is the highest probability that price will test the ATH and then we will see if it that weekly bar closes to confirm it as well.
How High Can Monero Go?
I do not presume to accurately call tops.
Given the progression of ATHs the most likely next high would be around 593. Using a projection of 3 Year Historic Volatility the target could be 793.
Caveat: Such a fast rise in price means inheirent high volatility and a look at Monero's long term history shows that a dramatic snap back is eventually very likely. This is a very difficult ticker to go long at this point.
That being said - I still continue to believe that Monero is the best asymmetric bet in cryptocurrency right now.
Monero: "Delisting is a Feature"What if NOT being listed on major Centralized Exchanges is Monero's greatest bull case?
Most investors assume the same thing:
Assets go up because they attract speculative capital.
Liquidity, listings, leverage, and visibility are treated as prerequisites for valuation.
So Monero’s biggest “problem” — being delisted from major centralized exchanges due to its privacy guarantees — is usually framed as fatal.
But what if that assumption is backward?
What if removal from the speculative casino is precisely why Monero behaves differently — and arguably better — than the rest of crypto?
The common criticism (and why it persists)
The standard argument goes like this:
Monero’s privacy features make it non-compliant with evolving regulations.
That forces centralized exchanges to delist it.
Without exchange access, speculative inflows dry up.
Without speculation, price stagnates.
That narrative has circulated for years. It sounds logical.
It’s also increasingly contradicted by reality.
Despite repeated delistings, Monero has emerged as one of the most uncorrelated assets in the entire crypto market.
And correlation — not volatility — is what quietly destroys portfolios.
What the charts are actually showing
INDEX:BTCUSD
CRYPTO:ETHUSD
CRYPTO:SOLUSD
CRYPTO:DOGEUSD
CRYPTO:XRPUSD
This morning’s sharp up/down move rippled across crypto almost uniformly.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Doge, XRP — all displayed the same pattern:
A volatility spike
A break from bearish consolidation
A quick rejection back into the range or lower
It was a textbook “low-volume volatility quake.”
Monero barely reacted.
While the rest of the market moved as a single organism — pushed and pulled by the same algos, market makers, and thin liquidity — Monero’s bullish trend remained largely uninterrupted.
When everything moves together except one asset, that exception matters.
The delisting that changed the story
On February 6, 2024, Monero dropped over 30% overnight.
At first, I assumed the worst — a cryptographic failure or privacy compromise.
Instead, the cause was simple:
Binance delisted Monero for regulatory non-compliance with privacy coins.
In other words, Monero was punished for working exactly as designed.
I held.
This ended up being a market reaction quickly abated and Monero has rallied over 300%.
The selloff faded quickly.
Since that low, Monero has rallied more than 300%.
Being removed from the highest-volume exchange did not suppress Monero’s value.
If anything, it may have liberated it.
The overlooked mechanism
Most cryptocurrencies are now:
Heavily centralized around exchanges
Continuously arbitraged
Priced primarily through leverage and relative flows
That makes them efficient — and tightly correlated.
Monero exists increasingly outside that system.
With fewer algos, less leverage, and limited access to reflexive speculation, Monero’s price is influenced more by:
Actual usage
Holder conviction
Intrinsic demand for private settlement
That doesn’t make it exciting every day.
It makes it structurally different.
And markets eventually reward assets that don’t break the same way everything else does.
A thought worth sitting with
Most people believe delistings remove value.
That belief feels obvious — until you watch an asset stop reacting to the same forces that destabilize everything else.
Monero may not be underperforming because it lacks speculation.
It may be outperforming because it no longer depends on it.
In a market addicted to correlation, independence is not a bug.
It’s the feature everyone overlooks — right up until it matters.
XMR Compressing Inside Symmetrical Triangle Near Breakout ZoneXMR is currently trading inside a well-defined symmetrical triangle, formed by a series of lower highs and higher lows after a strong impulse move. This structure reflects balanced pressure between buyers and sellers, signaling compression before a volatility expansion.
Price is now approaching the upper boundary of the triangle while holding above the rising support. A confirmed breakout above the descending resistance with acceptance can trigger a continuation move toward the 436 region, followed by the higher resistance near 480.
If price fails to break the upper boundary and loses the rising support, the triangle will resolve to the downside. In that scenario, the next demand areas are located near 360 and 319, where price previously reacted strongly.
This setup is driven by triangle compression, trendline interaction, and liquidity buildup. The breakout direction will define the next major move, making confirmation essential before bias selection.
XMR - Institutional Analysis: Channel Support Buy Zone | Dec 7XMRUSD - The Privacy Resistance: How Regulatory War Created The Perfect Parallel Channel Setup
by officialjackofalltrades
🟡 CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH December 7, 2025
Institutional Technical Analysis | Whale Signals Integrated
📈 Executive Summary - The Setup
Current Price: $372.78 | December 7, 2025
Monero is trading at a critical inflection point inside a well-defined parallel channel that has dictated price action for the past 90 days. After a spectacular +23% rally to $420 in the first week of December, XMR has pulled back to test lower channel support at $370-380 exactly where technical analysis suggests the next major move will be decided.
The Technical Setup:
Pattern: Ascending parallel channel (bullish structure)
Current Position: Lower channel support ($370-380)
Resistance: Upper channel boundary ($420-450)
Key Decision Level: $360 (below = channel break, above = bounce continuation)
The Fundamental Backdrop:
While retail focuses on regulatory FUD from 2024 delistings (Binance, Kraken, OKX), they're missing three critical developments:
XMR reclaimed privacy crown from Zcash on November 29, 2025
Fluorine Fermi upgrade enhanced network surveillance defenses on October 10
Early December saw 23% price surge despite broader crypto market liquidations
The Trade: Long from $360-380, target $420-480, stop $355 below ..
Monero's price on December 7, 2025, is fluctuating approximately between $390 and $400, with some reports indicating a notable 23% increase in the first week, pushing its average trading price to $406 and briefly reaching a short-run high of $420 .
What This Means:
The $420 short-run high demonstrates XMR's technical strength even as it tests the upper boundary of the channel. The current pullback to $372 is textbook technical behavior—price respecting the parallel structure.
Current Technical Position:
Support Levels (Where buyers defend):
$370-$380: Lower parallel channel + 50-day MA convergence (CURRENT LEVEL)
$360-$365: Channel absolute floor + psychological support
$320-$340: Major support cluster from Aug-Nov accumulation
$280-$300: Nuclear capitulation zone (10% probability)
Resistance Levels (Where sellers appear)
$400-$420: Recent high + upper channel boundary
$435-$450: Channel breakout zone + 2025 YTD high
$480-$500: Psychological resistance + near ATH
$517.62: All-time high (May 2021)
Not overbought (room to run higher)
Not oversold (not in panic selling zone)
Neutral = equilibrium before next directional move
MACD (Momentum):
Histogram: Positive but declining (losing steam short-term)
Signal line: Approaching bullish cross
Interpretation: Consolidation before next leg up
Volume Analysis:
24-hour trading volume of $114.56M - this is concerning. Volume has been declining since the December 3 peak, indicating:
Thin liquidity from exchange delistings
Lower participation = higher volatility potential
Breakouts need VOLUME confirmation
🔎 Fundamental Analysis - The Regulatory War Creates Opportunity
While technical analysis shows the "what" and "when," fundamentals explain the "why." Here's what's REALLY happening with Monero:
CATALYST #1: The Exchange Delisting Paradox
The Bearish Narrative (What retail sees):
Binance delisted XMR February 2024
OKX delisted XMR January 2024
Kraken delisted XMR in EEA October 2024
"Privacy coins are dying!"
The Reality (What institutions know):
Monero founder Riccardo Spagni said: "Kraken delisting Monero in Europe just goes to prove what we already know: Chainalysis et al. simply can't squeeze enough information out of Monero's privacy to be meaningful, otherwise regulators would want Monero to stay listed as a honeypot".
Read that again. The delistings PROVE Monero's privacy works.
If regulators could track Monero, they'd WANT it listed to monitor users. The fact they're forcing delistings means they can't break the privacy.
Market Impact:
Short-term: Liquidity crunch, price volatility
Long-term: Validates Monero's core value proposition
Institutional view: "Monero is the ONLY privacy coin that actually works"
CATALYST #2: FCMP++ Upgrade - The Game Changer
Network improvements such as FCMP++ (Full Chain Membership Proofs) represent the most significant privacy enhancement since Monero's creation.
What FCMP++ Does:
Removes the need for ring signatures with fixed size
Enables membership proofs over the ENTIRE blockchain
Makes transaction tracing mathematically impossible (not just difficult)
Reduces transaction size = lower fees
A breakout imminent now that we are about to hit the all-time high of $517 will take XMR to new heights, particularly with the successful implementation of network improvements such as FCMP++ .
Developer Momentum:
Fluorine Fermi upgrade on October 10, 2025 enhanced defenses against network surveillance risks. Then Ledger Wallet Bug Fix on November 14, 2025 patched a critical vulnerability when rejecting view key exports.
Translation: While other projects ship vaporware, Monero is shipping real privacy tech that regulators literally cannot break.
CATALYST #3: Privacy Demand at All-Time High
As of December 7, 2025, Monero (XMR) continues to be a focal point in the cryptocurrency market, primarily due to its unwavering commitment to privacy in an increasingly regulated digital landscape.
The irony? Regulatory crackdowns INCREASE demand for privacy.
Every time a government announces surveillance measures, Monero adoption spikes. Every time an exchange delists XMR, peer-to-peer volume increases.
XMR surged 30% from November lows, defying crypto-wide liquidations on December 1. While Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other coins crashed with $637M in liquidations, Monero rallied.
Why? Because in times of uncertainty, people want privacy.
CATALYST #4: The Zcash Flip
Reclaims Privacy Crown (29 November 2025) – Overtook Zcash in market cap amid capital rotation.
This is MASSIVE. Zcash (ZEC) was Monero's main competitor for years. But Comparatively, Zcash (ZEC) has fallen by almost a quarter during the same time, which points to the unstable nature of the privacy coin segment.
Why Monero Won:
Zcash has optional privacy (most transactions are transparent)
Zcash has a company behind it (Zcash Foundation) = regulatory target
Monero has mandatory privacy (all transactions private)
Monero is truly decentralized (no company, no CEO)
Capital is flowing FROM weak privacy (ZEC) TO strong privacy (XMR). This trend is accelerating.
⚠️ Risk Factors - The Bear Case
I'm bullish on the technical setup, but let's address the others in the room:
RISK #1: Mining Centralization (Qubic Attack)
Qubic grabbed 20% of all blocks in 24h during mining marathon, while DDoS attacks hit network. Qubic's growing hashrate share (peaking at 38% in July 2025) threatens decentralization, a core Monero value proposition.
What happened: Qubic, a quantum-resistant blockchain, started mining XMR with specialized hardware, capturing up to 38% of network hashrate.
Why it matters: If one entity controls >51% hashrate, they could theoretically attack the network.
Current Status:
Qubic hashrate declined from 38% (July) to ~20% (December)
P2Pool (decentralized mining pool) is growing
Monero community is working on algorithm tweaks
My take: This was concerning in July, but the trend is REVERSING. Hashrate is becoming more distributed again.
RISK #2: Thin Liquidity = High Volatility
24-hour trading volume of $114.56M is low compared to XMR's $7.21B market cap.
Volume-to-Market Cap Ratio: 1.6% (very low)
Bitcoin: ~5-8%
Ethereum: ~4-6%
Monero: ~1.6%
What this means:
Large orders can move price significantly
Volatility is higher than major coins
Slippage is a concern for larger trades
Trading Implication: Use limit orders, not market orders. Scale in/out slowly.
RISK #3: Regulatory Uncertainty
Governments and financial regulators are cracking down on cryptocurrencies that allow users to hide their transaction details, fearing that they could be used for illicit activities like money laundering, tax evasion, and terrorism financing.
Potential Future Actions:
More exchange delistings (though most already done)
Criminalization of possession (extreme, unlikely)
Banking restrictions on fiat on/off ramps
Counterpoint: Resolving the gap in mining and avoiding international regulations will be the key to preventing the backlash, but Monero has interesting arguments in its practical use of privacy in the real world, especially in a market where utility is highly valued more than speculation .
🎯 THE TRADE SETUP - Institutional-Grade Execution
🟢 PRIMARY LONG SETUP: BUY XMRUSD
Entry Zone: $360-$380 (SCALE IN - We're at the PERFECT zone RIGHT NOW)
Position Sizing (Conservative Institutional Approach):
Allocate 4-6% of portfolio (this is a MEDIUM conviction trade due to liquidity risk)
Scale in strategy:
30% at $375-380 (CURRENT - enter NOW if not in)
$365-370 (if we get one more dip to channel support)
$360-365 (if we hit absolute channel floor)
Stop Loss: $355
Below $355 = parallel channel broken on daily close
Below this = technical structure invalidated
Max loss: 6-8% from average entry
Take Profit Targets (Institutional Scale-Out Strategy):
TP1: $420-$435
Upper parallel channel resistance retest
December 2-3 peak at $420 retest
Action: move stop to $370 (breakeven)
TP2: $450-$480 (Probability: 50%)
Channel breakout + FCMP++ upgrade hype builds
Monero forecast between $382.54 and $456.36 next year
Action: move stop to $420 (lock gains)
All-time high $517.62 retest
Full bull market confirmation
Provided that buyers continue their growth, XMR is one of the best cryptos to consider as the new bull run might start with the daily close higher than $327
Entry Confirmation Checklist (Use This Before Entering):
✅ Price holding above $360 (channel support intact)
✅ Volume spike on bounce (150K+ XMR on daily candle)
✅ RSI crosses above 55 (momentum shift confirmed)
✅ MACD bullish cross on H4 timeframe
✅ Bitcoin holding above $95K (macro support)
✅ No surprise negative regulatory news (check daily)
WAIT FOR 4/6 CONFIRMATIONS BEFORE DEPLOYING FULL POSITION
Weekly Monitoring Requirements:
CRITICAL - Check EVERY WEEK:
Hashrate distribution: If Qubic >40% again, reduce position 50%
Exchange news: Any re-listings = bullish, add to position
Developer activity: Check Monero GitHub for FCMP++ progress
Regulatory news: New delistings = short-term bearish, long-term bullish
Bitcoin correlation: If BTC <$90K, reduce XMR position 30-50%
Volume trends: If 24h volume <$80M consistently, reduce position
5. Emergency Exit Conditions (CUT IMMEDIATELY):
❌ Daily close below $355 = EXIT ALL (channel broken)
❌ Qubic hashrate >51% sustained = EXIT ALL (security risk)
❌ Major security vulnerability discovered = EXIT ALL
❌ Bitcoin crashes below $85K = EXIT 50%, trail rest tight
❌ Volume dries up below $50M/24h = EXIT 50% (liquidity crisis)
📊 Scenario Analysis - What Happens Next
Base Case: Channel Bounce to $420-450
What happens:
XMR holds $370 support ✓
Bounces along lower channel to retest $420 resistance
Volume increases modestly
FCMP++ development continues
Breaks $435, targets $450-480
Timeline: 2-4 weeks
Expected Return: +17-29%
Catalysts: Technical bounce, no new negative news
Bull Case (2 Channel Breakout to $500+
What happens:
XMR breaks above $450 with VOLUME
XMR forecasted to reach $456.36 by January 1, 2026
FCMP++ release creates buzz
Privacy narrative strengthens
Targets ATH $517
Timeline: 4-8 weeks
Expected Return: +34-40%
Catalysts: FCMP++ launch, major adoption news, BTC >$110K
Bear Case (15% Probability): Channel Break to $320-340
What happens:
XMR breaks below $360 on volume
Tests major support at $320-340
Regulatory FUD intensifies
Bitcoin corrects below $95K
Thin liquidity amplifies drop
Timeline: 1-2 weeks
Expected Return: -8 to -14%
Catalysts: Surprise delisting, BTC crash, Qubic attack
Probability-Weighted Expected Return:
🔥 The Bottom Line - Why This Setup Works
Let me synthesize everything into a clear thesis:
The Technical Case:
✅ Parallel channel: 8 successful tests, currently at lower support
✅ +23% surge in first week of December to $420
✅ Overtook Zcash in market cap November 29
✅ Fluorine Fermi upgrade enhanced security October 10
✅ Privacy demand at all-time high in regulated landscape
✅ Delistings prove Monero's privacy actually works
The Risk Case:
⚠️ Thin liquidity (<$115M daily volume)
⚠️ Qubic mining centralization (peaked 38% hashrate)
⚠️ Regulatory uncertainty ongoing
⚠️ Exchange access limited (most CEXs delisted)
The Trade:
Entry: $360-380 (we're at $372 NOW)
Stop: $355 (-5% max loss)
Target : $380-400
IF YOU'RE BEARISH:
Wait for:
Daily close below $360 (channel break confirmed)
Then short from $355-360 with tight stop at $380
Target $320-340 support retest
Cover at $320, reassess
IF YOU'RE NEUTRAL:
Split the Difference:
Enter only at $365-370 (better risk/reward)
Take profits aggressively
This is the "I believe but I'm cautious" approach
💬 Final Thoughts - The Uncomfortable Truth
Here's what I know for certain on December 7, 2025:
✅_ContinueYour parallel channel analysis is PERFECT - XMR is respecting the structure exactly
✅ +23% rally to $420 in December's first week proves momentum
✅ XMR reclaimed privacy crown from Zcash - capital rotation happening
✅ Privacy demand at all-time high - fundamental bid exists
✅ Delistings prove Monero's tech works - validates thesis
✅ We're at lower channel support ($370) - mathematically optimal entry
Will Bitcoin hold $100K or crash?
Will Qubic attack Monero's hashrate again?
Will more exchanges delist (though most already have)?
Drop a 🟠 if you're entering XMR at $360-380 channel support.
Drop a 📊 if this parallel channel analysis helped you.
Drop a 🔒 if you believe in privacy's future.
Drop a 💰 if you're ready for $450+ in Q1 2026.
XMR Sell/Short Signal (4H)XMR has turned bearish after the change of character (CH) and, following the break of the short-term trendline, has now pulled back to a resistance zone while also sweeping a liquidity pool above the pivots.
With proper risk management and adherence to the stop-loss, this setup can be entered.
Targets are marked on the chart.
A daily candle closing above the invalidation level will negate this analysis.
Do not enter the position without capital management and stop setting
Comment if you have any questions
thank you






















