Indicator Decoded: RSI Mega Zones: Signals from the EdgeMost traders are familiar with the textbook RSI levels—70 indicating overbought and 30 indicating oversold. But markets, especially in strong momentum phases, do not always obey these boundaries. That is where the concept of Mega Overbought and Mega Oversold zones becomes vital. These are not fixed thresholds, but adaptive zones often beyond 80 and below 20, where the RSI reflects extreme strength or weakness. Rather than acting as reversal points, these levels often signal trend continuation.
A reading above 80 is typically seen during powerful uptrends or post-breakout rallies. It indicates not just buying, but unhesitating, aggressive demand, especially after key resistance zones have been cleared. Such RSI levels have often not been seen in several months—if not more than a year—making their appearance especially significant. Rather than a signal of exhaustion, this may be the start of a major trend, suggesting that the broader structure of the stock or index has shifted decisively. Traders who misinterpret this as a reversal signal often find themselves fighting momentum. Instead, price tends to grind higher, sometimes pausing briefly before further gains. This is why the chapter suggests using Mega Overbought zones as confirmation of bullish control, not a trigger for counter-trades.
The inverse applies to the Mega Oversold zone—RSI falling below 20. This is usually not a buy-the-dip moment, especially if the broader trend and chart structure are bearish. Such readings typically accompany panic-driven breakdowns, where sellers dominate without any counterforce. These extreme values are often rare and may not have appeared for months or even over a year, marking a moment where the market’s character may be undergoing a structural change. As with Mega Overbought, context is critical. If RSI hits such depths after prolonged distribution or a topping pattern, it does not indicate value—it confirms that the tide has turned, and a strong downtrend may be setting in.
Both Mega zones are best used in conjunction with structure—trendlines, volume shifts, anchored VWAP zones, or price patterns. The RSI alone is not enough. But when it aligns with other technical signals, a Mega Overbought or Oversold status becomes a momentum amplifier, not a contrarian prompt. In fact, your RSI chapter rightly warns that entering against such zones can be fatal unless clear divergences, climax patterns, or volume exhaustion are also present. Think of these extremes not as ceilings or floors, but as accelerators when backed by structure.
A word of caution: These signals are rare and often widely spaced. The real challenge lies in managing risk–reward, as strong momentum and shallow pullbacks can make it difficult to find entries with favourable R:R ratios.
Chart: Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) – Daily Chart with 20-DMA and RSI (as on July 25, 2025)
Microsoft continues its strong upward trajectory, with price action staying well above the rising 20-day simple moving average. The recent surge in RSI into the mega overbought zone marks a significant shift in momentum, as the indicator revisits such elevated levels after nearly a year—an occurrence that often coincides with extended bullish phases.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Wall Street takes off: 5 secret growth engines for #S&P500 Record closes for the indices on July 21 came from a powerful combo: a surge in #Google , a strong start to the earnings season, gains in #Apple (+0.6%), #Amazon (+1.4%), plus #Microsoft, #Meta Platforms, and #Nvidia . This momentum, coupled with market bets on imminent Fed rate cuts and hopes for a softening US-EU tariff conflict, pushed #S&P500 and #NQ100 to new all-time highs.
5 mega drivers that could keep #S&P500 and #NQ100 on the runway through 2025:
• AI capex and monetization: Top cloud providers are ramping up spending in computing clusters and generative AI solutions. The growing lineup of paid AI products (Google Gemini, Microsoft Copilot+ Apps, Amazon Bedrock) is starting to generate significant revenue, boosting profit estimates for the “Magnificent 7.”
• Fed policy easing: If inflation keeps drifting towards 2%, we may see the first rate cut of the cycle between July and September. Historically, every 25 bps drop in 10-year UST yields adds ~2% to the #NQ100 ’s valuation multiple.
• Record buybacks and dividends: #S&P500 companies hold $3.5 trillion in cash. After tax relief on repatriated foreign earnings earlier this year, several megacap boards approved accelerated buybacks — mechanically supporting stock prices.
• Easing tariff risks: Potential trade deals between the US and EU, and the US and Mexico, would remove the threat of 20–50% tariffs priced into valuations, unlocking CAPEX in manufacturing and semiconductors — sectors with a heavy #NQ100 weight.
• Resilient consumers and services: Unemployment remains near 4%, and household spending is growing 2–3% YoY. This supports e-commerce, streaming, and platform advertising — together making up ~40% of #NQ100 and ~28% of #S&P500 .
The current highs of #S&P500 and #NQ100 aren’t a random spike — they result from strong corporate earnings, expectations of Fed cuts, and hopes of trade détente. If even some of these five drivers materialize, the indices have a strong chance to stay elevated and set new records by year-end. FreshForex analysts believe current prices could spark a new rally, with today’s market conditions offering plenty of entry points in both indices and stock CFDs.
Microsoft Sees Declining Trading Volume Despite All Time HighsSince December of 2021, MSFT traded within a Rising Wedge structure that has gradually resulted in lower and lower highs in volume, at the same time IV on the Options Chain has begun to price down the strikes above $515 while Shorter Term Downside IV has begun to price up all the way out to $240.00. If this trend continues we will likely see the $515 area act as strong resistance as liquid interest above it begins to dry out.
This could be the beginning of a move to break down the wedge and trade down to the lower strikes first targeting the $365 price level and resolving around $240 near the 200 Period SMA.
Ethereum’s Next Fair Value Gap is $3.8K — And the Road to $26K 🚀 Ethereum’s Next Fair Value Gap is $3.8K — And the Road to $26K Remains On Track
Ethereum ( CRYPTOCAP:ETH ) just reclaimed key structure — and despite a temporary pullback, all signals remain aligned for a parabolic breakout toward $26,000 this cycle.
Here’s why the next Fair Value Gap (FVG) sits near $3.8K, and why the Schiff Pitchfork structure still implies Ethereum is coiling for exponential upside in the coming months.
🔹 The $3.8K FVG: ETH’s Next Magnet
Looking at the daily chart:
The $3.8K zone is a clear untapped FVG (Fair Value Gap) from late 2021, created by a sharp breakdown candle that never got properly filled.
ETH is currently consolidating just below the $3.1K resistance band, and once that breaks, liquidity will naturally gravitate toward the next inefficiency — at $3,800–3,900.
This gap aligns with a previous supply zone and intersects with the upper resistance trendline from late 2021, creating a powerful magnet for price once momentum returns.
🔹 All-Time Schiff Pitchfork Still Intact
The Schiff Pitchfork structure drawn from Ethereum’s 2018 low through its COVID crash low and 2021 all-time high paints a highly disciplined range:
ETH is respecting the midline of the lower channel and recently bounced off the support of the median zone, with price now grinding higher within the ascending structure.
The upper band of the pitchfork intersects with price in late 2025 near the $26,000–28,000 zone, forming a natural cycle top target.
Historically, Ethereum has respected this long-term structure remarkably well — and this current move is no different.
🔹 Moving Averages & Bullish Market Structure
ETH recently flashed a Golden Cross — the 50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day SMA — which historically front-runs explosive upside in post-halving years.
All major SMAs (20/50/100/200) are now curling upward, creating a supportive launchpad.
Price is breaking out of the consolidation wedge that defined Q2 2025 — and has room to run toward $3.8K before meeting major overhead resistance.
🔹 Post-Halving Explosiveness
Let’s not forget: we’re in a post-halving year — and ETH has a consistent pattern of multiplying 5x–10x in the 9–12 months following Bitcoin halving events:
In 2017 (after 2016 halving): ETH went from ~$8 to $1,400 — nearly 175x.
In 2021 (after 2020 halving): ETH went from ~$120 to $4,800 — roughly 40x.
A move from the current ~$3K level to $26,000 is just an 8.5x — well within historical precedent.
🔹 Macro Tailwinds: ETH ETFs & Institutional Flows
BlackRock, Fidelity, and other asset managers are positioning Ethereum ETFs for approval, which would unlock billions in institutional inflows.
A staking ETF would dramatically compress supply — Ethereum already has over 27% of its supply locked — amplifying upside through supply-demand squeeze.
Meanwhile, stablecoin settlement volume is growing faster than Visa — all powered by Ethereum infrastructure.
🔹 Timing the Move: August to December Explosion?
The verticals on your chart highlight key windows:
A breakout window between early August and mid-September coincides with both macro liquidity injections and historical altseason patterns.
If ETH hits $3.8K by August, the runway to $8K–$14K opens by October, with $26K still well within reach by December 2025, in line with your pitchfork’s top boundary.
🟣 Summary: Ethereum’s Next Stop Is $3.8K — Then Moon
✅ Untapped FVG magnet at $3.8K
✅ Schiff Pitchfork upper boundary intersects near $26K
✅ Post-halving year + Golden Cross = Explosive setup
✅ ETH ETF narrative just beginning
✅ Structural breakout from consolidation wedge
Ethereum is no longer just the base layer of DeFi — it’s becoming the base layer of global financial infrastructure. And price hasn’t yet priced that in.
"If the internet had a price, it would be Ethereum."
Don’t fade this breakout. We’re still early.
$MSFT: A Teflon stock turning hot, will it catch fire? Before you wonder why we call it a Teflon stock please check my blog on 27 April 2025.
NASDAQ:MSFT : A 'Teflon' stock refusing to budge under pressure for NASDAQ:MSFT by RabishankarBiswal
I pointed out the reason why this stock refused to go down below critical levels and held onto some impressive gains. And since then, we have rallied 33% from the lows of 360 and reached an ATH of 480 $. The buying pressure on the stock has pushed it above our upward sloping parallel channel which we have been following for more than 2 quarters. We always argued that the stock has support around 350 $ and is unlikely to break the support. We bounced back exactly 350 $ with 25 RSI indicating oversold conditions.
Currently with stock price above 480 $ the RSI looks over bought at 73. But in my opinion the bull run can continue for some more time unless we see a double top in the RSI just like in 2022 and 2024. Double tops usually result in breakdown. But until then there is a lot of runway ahead of us. If we plot the Fib extension levels from the top before Liberation Day to the bottom after the liberation day, then we see that the next level on the chart is 1.612 Fib level with a price of 542 $. NASDAQ:MSFT is a Teflon stock which is hot but might not catch fire and go to the moon. 😊
Verdict: More potential upside in $MSFT. Near term target 542 $.
Buying Reploy AI (RAI) Today Is Like Buying Bitcoin at $345Buying Reploy AI (RAI) Today Is Like Buying Bitcoin at $345—Or Even $3.45
Imagine going back in time to 2016 and buying Bitcoin at $345. Most people didn’t believe in it. They thought it was too risky, too early, or just plain irrelevant. Today, Bitcoin is trading in the six figures. The opportunity was historic.
Now, there’s another chance brewing—and it’s quietly sitting in front of us.
That opportunity is Reploy AI ($RAI).
🚀 What is Reploy AI?
Reploy AI is a micro-cap artificial intelligence (AI) project focused on decentralizing the compute layer that powers AI training and inference. It’s building a distributed AI network that connects GPU resources with developers and businesses in need of scalable AI infrastructure. Think of it as the decentralized AWS + OpenAI — built from the ground up for speed, accessibility, and equity.
It’s early. But the fundamentals, vision, and market positioning are explosive.
💰 Let’s Talk Numbers: The Bitcoin Comparison
Right now, Reploy AI ($RAI) trades at a tiny market cap—roughly $3 million at the time of writing.
If $RAI hits a $1 billion market cap, that’s a 31,000% return.
Yes, 31,000% — not a typo. That’s a 310x gain.
That would be like buying Bitcoin at $345, before it ran to over $100,000.
If $RAI grows into a $10 billion AI ecosystem, it would be like snagging Bitcoin at just $3.45.
Let that sink in.
🌐 Why This Could Actually Happen
AI Is the Next Internet
The world is undergoing an AI revolution. But centralized giants (like OpenAI and Google) dominate access. Reploy offers a decentralized, censorship-resistant alternative — and the market desperately needs it.
Micro Cap = Maximum Asymmetry
Unlike hyped-up billion-dollar AI tokens, Reploy is still undiscovered. Small caps like this can explode with just one partnership, listing, or viral catalyst.
Strong Tokenomics & Ecosystem Design
RAI has a deflationary supply structure, utility-driven demand, and real infrastructure use cases tied to decentralized compute, developer tooling, and enterprise deployment.
It’s Not Just Hype. It’s Being Built.
Reploy isn’t vaporware. The team is shipping code. The platform is live. And the network of compute contributors is growing.
⚠️ Of Course, This Is Risky
Yes, it’s still early. Yes, micro-cap tokens carry real risk. But so did Bitcoin when it was $345. So did Ethereum when it was $7.
The difference is this: most people only see opportunity when it’s already gone.
This isn’t financial advice. But if you’ve ever wished for a second shot at catching a generational trend early—this might be it.
🧠 Final Thought
In crypto, the biggest returns come from spotting the future before it’s obvious.
Buying $RAI at today’s price could be your version of buying CRYPTOCAP:BTC at $345—or even $3.45. The only question is: will you see it in time?
📈 DYOR. Stay sharp. Think long-term. And don’t miss what might be the next breakout in AI + crypto.
MICROSOFT: 1D Golden Cross to slingshot it to $590MSFT turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 73.199, MACD = 13.580, ADX = 52.584), extending the rise to a new ATH today, having formed a 1D Golden Cross on June 9th. That was the first 1D Golden Cross since March 20th 2023, which validated a bullish extenstion to +71.50% from the bottom. Since the long term Channel Up has already started its new bullish wave, we are expecting the uptrend to continue up to +71.50% at least. Go long, TP = $590.
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SPY & MegaCap strengthSPY saw a very strong gap up, negating most of the selling from last week.
despite rising tensions in the middle east - investors have shrugged off volatility and bought the initial dip.
This may be proving that "war" is good for stocks.
we observed a very close correlation between the indices and oil today.
As oil reversed higher - markets saw a bit of weakness. As oil fell markets rallied.
TSLA trying to break a 4 hour bullish pattern
META new Smart Glasses release causing a surge.
MSFT new all time high tap
NVDA firm with ripping semiconductors
GOOGL looking strong for continuation
AMZN moving nicely off support
AAPL lagging the mega's but positive
Looking to take profits on Microsoft that's severely overboughtThis summer most stocks will lose their momentum making it a great time to take profits. We got into NASDAQ:MSFT at an average of $$350-375, it's time to sell at least half to 75% of the stack then buy back around the 0.618 golden fibonacci at $400 after the gap is filled.
MSFT Weekly Chart Signals a $100 Move — Don’t Miss This BreakoutMicrosoft continues to show strong bullish behavior on the weekly chart. Historically, the stock has respected a well-defined upward channel, and the recent price action has further reinforced this trend. Notably, MSFT has broken through a key resistance level that had previously capped its upside for months. This breakout is significant as it suggests a shift in market structure, from consolidation to a potential new leg up.
The breakout area around $474–$479 has now turned into a short-term support zone. This region will play a critical role in maintaining bullish sentiment; any successful retest that holds above this zone confirms strength and invites further accumulation. The chart highlights a projected move toward $580, which lies near the upper red trendline—this aligns well with the historical resistance trajectory.
A bullish trade setup can be considered from the current levels around $478, with a stop-loss just below the $447–$435 zone. This range marks a previous congestion area and aligns with the lower side of the risk-reward box illustrated on the chart. The potential upside move is about 20.99%, offering a solid risk-reward ratio of approximately 2.27, assuming the price continues to hold above the breakout level.
While the trend remains firmly bullish, a weekly close below $447.50 would warrant caution. It could indicate a deeper retracement, potentially back into the broader green trend channel extending toward $400 or below. However, current momentum favors continuation to the upside, especially after clearing such a pivotal resistance.
In conclusion, Microsoft’s long-term chart structure, combined with the recent breakout and favorable price action, supports a bullish outlook. If price action remains above $474–$479, the stock is well-positioned to challenge the $580 resistance level in the coming weeks.
An Internet Disaster - NET & GOOGL FallAs of Thursday, June 12, 2025, a significant internet outage has disrupted services across multiple major platforms, including Google, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Spotify, YouTube, Discord, and Shopify. Cloudflare acknowledged experiencing intermittent failures and noted that some services were beginning to recover, though users may continue to encounter errors as systems stabilize.
The root cause of the disruption has been identified as an issue with Google Cloud's Identity and Access Management (IAM) service, which affected various services globally. While Cloudflare's core services were not directly impacted, some of its services relying on Google Cloud experienced issues.
Imagine how far Net could've fallen if IGV / Cloud stocks weren't strong today.
Microsoft - This might be the ultimate breakout!Microsoft - NASDAQ:MSFT - will break the all time high:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
If you wonder why Microsoft has been rallying +15% this month, market structure will give you an answer. In fact, the recent bullish break and retest was totally expected, and if we take into account the recent quite strong bullish behaviour, an all time high breakout will follow soon.
Levels to watch: $450
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
Are The Markets Running Out Of Steam? SPY just cant seemed to hold above the 600 psychological level.
Are big players unloading into this positive market strength?
Are we due for a larger pullback?
There's a lot of mixed price action and we just cant seem to make a true breakout.
Some names are underperforming and other names are outperforming.
We remain tactically bullish while trimming keys positions into strength.
Being nimble in this market us key as were seeing large intra day swings.
Short term there is some risk of lower price so we have hedged in some individual names while still remaining bullish.






















