The Bullish case versus the bearish case: Which side are you on?I have noticed a divergence in RSI versus price on the SP 500. Price although in a down trend right now could potentially go back up and create a throw over top / blow off top similar to the 1929 top. The levels that I am watching to confirm or invalidate this thesis are 3379 on the S&P 500. The next level I think will occur if we go above the current all time high of 4700 would be 7071 by my caclulations. This would occur on or around the 1st of January 2025. This would then be followed by a terrific fall to something like 1060 based on an 85% drawdown (It could be more than this but I am being conservative) from the all time high. For this to occur RSI needs to get above 87.7. If it does not do this then there is no Bull case. The bear case is the exact opposite. 3379 Does not hold on the S&P 500. Even if there are 'rip your face off' rallies we do not make it above the level of 25% below the all time high (5303 in the blow off top scenario) or (3525 in the case that the top is already in). There would then be an extended period of basing in which RSI would fail to make new highs for about 2 to 2 and a half years. In this case I will be sitting on my hands and doing nothing.
