Netflix (NFLX) - Elliott Wave Map to $25K📘 Netflix (NFLX) – The Final Act of Supercycle Wave III, Setting the Stage for Wave V to $25,000+
Symbol: NASDAQ:NFLX
Timeframe: Monthly
Published: October 2025
Current Price: ~$1,120
Framework: Elliott Wave | Fibonacci Extensions | Price Action | Smart Money Concepts (SMC) | Fundamentals
🔍 Structural Overview – Supercycle Journey
Netflix has been moving through a multi-decade Elliott Wave supercycle that began in the early 2000s. This structural roadmap is now approaching the final phase of Wave III, before setting up for a corrective Wave IV and ultimately a euphoric Wave V.
Supercycle Wave I completed in January 2004 — a powerful impulse that marked Netflix’s transition into a mainstream tech-growth story.
Supercycle Wave II followed, completing in 2008 with a healthy 50% retracement. This wave set the long-term demand foundation and concluded right as the global financial crisis unfolded.
We are now in Supercycle Wave III, which began in 2008 and is currently in its final macro wave — the most dynamic phase of the entire structure.
⚙️ Breakdown of Supercycle Wave III (2008–2026 est.)
Wave III itself subdivides into five clear macro waves, each respecting Fibonacci and structural principles:
Macro Wave 1 ran from the 2008 bottom into mid-2011, kickstarting the secular bull trend.
Macro Wave 2 ended in 2012 with a textbook 0.618 Fibonacci retracement , a classic sign of wave-based correction.
Macro Wave 3 , the most explosive move of the cycle, lasted until 2018 and terminated near a 2.618 Fibonacci extension — a key confluence area and institutional distribution point.
Macro Wave 4 then corrected from 2018 to 2022. However, this retracement was shallow, bouncing from the 0.236 level — preserving long-term bullish market structure and confirming continued institutional control.
We are currently in Macro Wave 5 of Supercycle III . This leg is itself subdividing into five micro waves. Micro waves 1, 2, and 3 have already completed. Micro Wave 4 is now unfolding and is expected to bottom inside the Golden Pocket — the critical Fibonacci zone between approximately $771 and $548 .
Once Micro Wave 4 completes, Micro Wave 5 will initiate. This final thrust is expected to target the region near $7,447 — the 2.618 extension from prior waves. This level aligns with structural channel tops and institutional profit zones. It would also mark the formal completion of Supercycle Wave III .
🧭 What Comes Next: Supercycle Wave IV and V
After Wave III completes at the ~$7,44 7 area, a significant correction is expected.
Supercycle Wave IV will be the most complex corrective structure since 2008 — possibly multi-year, combining flat, zig-zag, or triangle formations. This wave will likely retrace a large portion of Wave III and reset sentiment across the broader market.
But this correction is not the end — it’s the setup.
Supercycle Wave V will emerge from the Wave IV base and drive Netflix into its ultimate secular top . Based on the Fibonacci 4.618 extension from the base of the cycle, Wave V is projected to reach the $24,774 to $25,332 range.
This would be the euphoric blow-off move where fundamentals, monetary policy, and sentiment combine to form a parabolic top — consistent with historical market cycle conclusions.
📐 Fibonacci Confluence Zones
Each major wave has respected key Fibonacci ratios . Wave II retraced to 0.50, Wave III extended to 2.618, and Wave IV retraced to 0.236. Current projections place Wave V near the 4.618 extension level — a historically significant threshold for secular tops.
The current Micro Wave 4 pullback is unfolding into the Golden Pocket zone — the 0.618–0.65 retracement range — which has repeatedly served as the institutional reaccumulation zone across prior waves.
🧠 Smart Money Behavior
Smart Money Concepts further validate this wave count:
In 2018 , we saw classic signs of institutional distribution at the top of Macro Wave 3 — including high-volume price exhaustion, deviation from trend, and liquidity sweeps.
Between 2018 and 2022, accumulation returned during Wave 4, as institutional players re-entered at discounted levels and retested key demand blocks .
The 2022 breakout into Macro Wave 5 has been efficient, clean, and impulsive — with minimal resistance and wide-range bullish candles, signaling continued institutional participation.
The current Wave 4 micro correction may again serve as a liquidity grab — offering another accumulation window before the final markup toward the $7,447 zone.
🔍 Netflix Fundamentals – Fueling the Cycle
Netflix's fundamentals are now structurally aligned with the technical setup:
Diversified Monetization:
The shift from pure subscription to a multi-layered model (ad-supported tiers, gaming, IP licensing, live events) is broadening both revenues and engagement.
Ad-Supported Growth:
Netflix’s advertising business is scaling rapidly, offering higher ARPU and access to price-sensitive users — a major tailwind for Wave V.
Global Expansion:
With strong localization strategies, Netflix continues to dominate key international markets, boosting user stickiness and content ROI.
Strong Financials:
Consistent free cash flow, improving margins, and disciplined content spend are creating a sustainable growth engine.
These dynamics are not just supporting price — they are helping to drive the type of institutional confidence needed for Wave V to materialize.
🎯 Strategic Levels and Outlook
Watch the Golden Pocket between $771–$548 — this is the high-probability completion zone for Micro Wave 4.
Once Micro Wave 5 begins, price is expected to rally toward $7,447 — the projected top of Supercycle Wave III.
After a broad correction during Wave IV, the final Wave V is projected to target $24,774 to $25,332 — where the entire super-cycle would culminate.
🔚 Final Word
Netflix is moving through the final stages of a 20-year Supercycle Wave III — one of the strongest impulsive phases in equity history. The micro pullback underway now is not a sign of weakness, but a preparation for the final push.
Wave IV will offer the last major reset before a euphoric Wave V redefines valuations. If the fundamental narrative continues to align, the $25K target is not speculative — it’s structural.
📘 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and risk management.
#NFLX #Netflix #NASDAQ #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #WaveTheory #Fibonacci #Supercycle #PriceAction #LongTermInvestment
💬 Respected traders and analysts!
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