$Conoil Conoil price currently devalued - Over 45% Retracement!NSENG:CONOIL Conoil PLC is a leading downstream energy company in Nigeria, active in marketing refined petroleum products, lubricants and LPG. Latest data shows: Revenue (TTM) of ~ ₦286.2 billion, net income ~ ₦1.65 billion, P/E approximately 88.7×. The main risk: margins are under pressure, cost of sales rising, and recent performance has disappointed in short-term horizon. Conoil main strength: strong brand, wide distribution network, and established business in Nigeria’s energy sector.
After a strong parabolic rally, CONOIL is now in a corrective phase of about 45%. I’m preparing to accumulate gradually—not all at once—as price approaches long-term value areas.
The Plan:
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) slowly into weakness, targeting the 200 EMA as my final support zone. This approach reduces risk and smooths my entry cost over time.
Buy Zones:
₦230–₦200: Light entries (early DCA)
₦180–₦160: Moderate accumulation
₦160–₦145: Heavy accumulation (near 200 EMA)
Each tranche increases exposure as price nears fair value.
Why the 200 EMA?
The 200 EMA often acts as the “fair value” line—after strong trends, price tends to return here before establishing a new base. It’s where patient money usually steps back in.
Planned Targets After Reversal:
TP1 → ₦314: Retest of structural resistance
TP2/TP3 → ₦403 / ₦501: Full cycle recovery / momentum expansion. Once the trend turns, these are the resistance zones I’ll be watching.
Risk Management:
Idea invalidation if weekly candle closes below ₦145, that’s a break of structure. I’ll pause or sell off accumulation until price stabilises or forms a clear base.
Not Financial Advice!!
