NOKJPY: Long term trading plan.The pair is trading within a standard Channel Down on the 1W chart (RSI = 38.708, MACD = -0.485, ADX = 41.103) since 2013. Three weeks ago it made contact with the Lower Low trend line of the Channel Down and priced a Lower Low. Naturally it has been rebounding since and is close to the 0.382 Fibonacci (14.000 as the High).
The sequence is similar to the last Lower Low it had in June 2016, which after touching the 0.382 Fib, got rejected back to its 0.618 and then made a top on the 0.5 (from its November 2014 High). If the same sequence is replicated, then we should use the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib range (9.850 - 10.150) as the Dip buy Zone and buy every pull back towards the 0.5 (11.500). Then every rise will be the opposite, i.e. a sell opportunity towards 9.000.
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NOK
ridethepig | CADNOK Market Commentary 2020.03.02Eyes on the technical breakdown in CADNOK to kickstart the week, a few important updates to make here as intervention begins globally from Central Banks and OPEC.
For those tracking Oil you will know we got the massive meltdown that we have been expecting in the chart-pack since last year:
I am tracking a much larger than expected cut from OPEC at 1mbpd and would therefore recommend trading a bounce in risk markets. The view of a cut from BoC this week seems a done-deal too - this will start the round of global easing.
On the technical side, targeting a fresh breakdown into the stops at 6.8xx. Invalidation is found above the recent highs. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
New York Watchlist: EURNOK Sell EURNOK SELL
ENTRY 10.1580 /// MODERATE 10%
SL 10.17915 ( pips 221 )
TP 10.08605 ( pips 709 / RR 3.2 )
On 4H we have a solid contraction and we are pretty much at the top of it. RSI is at its highs too.
On 1H we have a minor contraction supportin the sell idea with a decent rejection level.
On the minute charts I see a reversal coming within this hour (in the next 50mins)
USD/NOK ShortNot a pair I trade very often but love the current set-ups on a few NOK pairs. Took this short off the bounce of the double top, could see a big downside, but as posted on the DXY will be watching how USD pairs play out so SL is now at breakeven, happy to take that rather than a loss.
If we do see a big pullback then I will simply look for a better entry.
ridethepig | Apple in the worm for CADNOKA very good time to update the short-term flow setup for CADNOK after such a brilliant squeeze. For those tracking the 2020 Macro flows:
This week we have a simple technical move in play. A textbook case of "Apple in the worm" as it seems to me a poor choice of the moment for buyers to continue the advance. Extending the characteristics position (= swing configuration) by letting buyers go overboard and bet on momentum while the macro defence can be a reliable guardian.
A better move is to sell the 6.99xx highs here with targets located initially at the support levels 6.865xx.. and then perhaps 6.47xx. The business of a bullish NOK did not become an attacking instrument; stops can be kept comfortably above the 7.00xx handle.
Good luck all those trading CADNOK in the coming sessions, as usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
CADNOK: Final phase of the bull leg.CADNOK is on a strong 1D Channel Up (RSI = 69.678, MACD = 0.025, ADX = 55.588, Highs/Lows = 0.0757) that started on December 30th when the price touched the 6.72000 Support. It is well above the MA50 and appears to be repeating the previous bullish leg that rebounded on the 1D Support. The pressure zones are symmetrical as seen on the chart.
This Channel Up though is on its final phase as the 7.1250 1D Resistance is close. Pursue this late buy opportunity with proper risk management.
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EURNOK: Buy opportunity on 1D MACD.The pair is trading within a long term 1M Channel Up (RSI = 53.878, MACD = 0.135, ADX = 43.274, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) since Q4 of 2017. At the moment the price seems to have found Support around the 1D MA200 (orange line) and withi the 1D MACD making a bullish cross over, is expected to rise.
According to a similar fractal in January 2018, the High of that spike could be around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. We place our Target at 10.0700.
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