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Nq!!

NQ1! (Nasdaq 100) has entered the terminal phaseThe Nasdaq 100 has entered the terminal phase of its 20 day institutional dealing range and is currently executing a distribution program within the premium quartile. The failure to sustain price acceptance above the 25,700.00 Volume Imbalance suggests the algorithm is preparing for a mean reversion event to rebalance the monthly ledger. The present price action represents a classic 'Bull Trap' at the upper boundary of the range where retail momentum is being absorbed by institutional limit sell orders ahead of a repricing to equilibrium. ​ Entry: 25,550.00 (Sell Limit) Stop loss: 25,880.00 (330.00 points) Take profit: 24,850.00 (700.00 points) Risk to reward ratio: 2.12R ​ CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! IG:NASDAQ The Opportunity The 20 day IPDA lookback reveals that price is oscillating within a defined premium distribution block between 25,350.00 and 25,850.00. The market has expended significant energy to reach this valuation but has failed to close the daily candles above the key Volume Imbalance at 25,700.00. This rejection signature implies that the 'Santa Rally' narrative has been utilized to engineer exit liquidity for smart money positions accumulated at the lows. The algorithm is an efficiency engine and it cannot justify a new macro expansion leg without first revisiting the internal range equilibrium to capitalize the move. ​ The Entry Initiating a short position in the 25,550.00 to 25,600.00 zone aligns with the institutional logic of selling the upper 25% of the monthly range. This zone offers the highest statistical edge as it places the entry directly against the 'Ceiling' of the current volatility profile while targeting the 'Floor' of the recent expansion. The Volume Imbalance acts as a natural defensive barrier for the stop loss as the algorithm will typically respect this array during a distribution phase. ​ The Invalidation The bearish causal chain is ontologically corrupted if price achieves a daily close above the 25,880.00 range high. Such an event would signify a 'Blue Sky' breakout and a shift in regime from range bound to trending. If the market accepts price above this threshold it implies that the premium valuation has become the new floor and the algorithm is targeting the 26,000.00 psychological level. ​ Key Trajectory Waypoints Target 1: 25,350.00 | Type: 75% Range Quartile | Probability: 70% | ETA: 24 Hours Target 2: 24,850.00 | Type: Range Equilibrium (50%) | Probability: 60% | ETA: 2-3 Days Target 3: 24,400.00 | Type: NWOG / Discount Target | Probability: 40% | ETA: Next Week The Shadow Reality A 35% probability exists for the antithetical reality: The Range Expansion. In this scenario the current consolidation is a 'High Tight Flag' and the algorithm ignores the equilibrium requirement to force a squeeze into the 26,000.00 level immediately. This reality is confirmed if price holds above 25,650.00 for two consecutive 4 hour closes.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by TradeConfirmed
6
Bearish Scenario on NQEyeing a bearish scenario on NQ after retracing it to 0.5 to 0.618 fib levels. Bearish points - Bearish Divergence on daily - Rising wedge broken and retested - Head n shoulder forming Just waiting on breaking 24000 level to take a legendary short. And I beleive it should retrace back to atleast 0.5 fib level which is close to 21430. Let's see.... Currently it seems it is going to pump from here to make a LH and then drop from there since it's oversold on Daily timeframe. Please share your thoughts.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by smwajeeh
Nasdaq nearing critical balanceIn November, we observed a Hagopian pattern - the market failed to reach the centerline despite the high probability of doing so (see weekly chart left). MACD-V is in divergence since then. A sign to be especially cautious. This led to the current rally lasting more than ten days without a single close below a prior low. It seems the Plunge Protection Team may be at work. In any case, we are now approaching the yellow centerline, the market’s point of balance. From there, the market will determine whether we push once more above the yellow centerline toward the white U-MLH, or turn downward, producing a second Hagopian and falling back toward the white centerline. If the second scenario unfolds, the path toward significantly lower prices would be wide open. Let’s see what we get for Christmas…
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HowToChart
QQQ (US100 – USTECH – NQ) WEEKLY PREDICTION - (08 DEC)QQQ (US100 – USTECH – NQ) WEEKLY PREDICTION 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment remains bullish, supported by expectations of a potential FED rate cut in December. Additionally, Trump’s likely nominee for the next FED Chair Kevin Hassett, a strong advocate of aggressive rate cuts has strengthened this bullish outlook. Markets have already begun pricing in the possibility of earlier and more aggressive cuts throughout 2026, fueling continued upside momentum. 📈 Technical Analysis QQQ is strongly bullish at the moment. In my opinion, as long as SPY continues pushing toward all time highs, QQQ is unlikely to experience any meaningful retracement. 📌 Game Plan – Prediction I expect QQQ to reach 629 this week at minimum. A strong move may occur right after the market opens however, since the FED decision will be released on Wednesday, the early part of the week may show some choppy or ranging price action. 💬 For deeper sentiment and strategy insights, subscribe to my Substack free access available. ⚠️This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by UA_CAPITAL
SPY (US500–SP500–SPX) WEEKLY PREDICTION (08 DEC)SPY (US500 – SP500 – SPX) WEEKLY PREDICTION 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment remains bullish, supported by expectations of a potential FED rate cut in December. Additionally, Trump’s likely nominee for the next FED Chair Kevin Hassett, a strong advocate of aggressive rate cuts has strengthened this bullish outlook. Markets have already begun pricing in the possibility of earlier and more aggressive cuts throughout 2026, fueling upward momentum. 📈 Technical Analysis SPY remains strongly bullish and is currently targeting new all time highs. In my opinion, during this type of price behavior, I do not expect a deep retracement before the market attempts to run the previous highs. 📌 Game Plan – Prediction I expect SPY to either push directly into new all time highs or consolidate until Wednesday’s FED decision. If I see a strong daily close above 687, I plan to buy the retracement into 685, targeting: First target: 688.5 Second target: All-time highs around 690 💬 For deeper sentiment and strategy insights, subscribe to my Substack free access available. ⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
AMEX:SPYLong
by UA_CAPITAL
Weekly US Market Outlook – SPY, QQQ, DXY, VIX (30 NOV)Weekly US Market Outlook – SPY, QQQ, DXY, VIX Bullet points: Market sentiment turned bullish again as the probability of a December Fed rate cut climbed to 87%. Fear & Greed Index recovered from extreme fear (9) to 24. Options sentiment still signals extreme fear → room for upside continuation. DXY remains bearish until 99, supporting risk assets. VIX continues to decline toward 15.70–14.20, but these levels historically precede sharp corrections. Heavy data week ahead (ADP, Jobless Claims, PCE) → major volatility drivers. SPY targets 690 → 700 zone; QQQ targets 625 → 637 → 647.5. Market Sentiment Market sentiment has shifted decisively toward a bullish stance after the probability of a December rate cut surged back to 86%. Markets are now pricing in one more cut before 2026, creating a supportive macro backdrop for equities. At the same time, the Fear & Greed Index has rebounded from extreme fear levels of 9 to 24, indicating a slow but clear improvement in risk appetite. Stronger than expected earnings from NVDA continue to reinforce the narrative that the AI cycle is intact and far from bubble conditions. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions specifically the US–China trade agreement have reduced risk premia across global markets. Taken together, these developments support a short to mid term bullish environment and increase the likelihood of a Santa Rally. Options Sentiment Despite improving market sentiment, options markets remain deeply positioned in the extreme fear zone. This divergence between spot indices and options positioning typically suggests that market participants remain hedged or underexposed, allowing equities to extend higher as positioning normalizes. In other words, options sentiment indicates there is still significant room for markets to explore higher price levels. DXY – US Dollar Index Monitoring the DXY is essential because of its direct correlation with risk assets. A rising dollar weighs on equities, while a declining dollar supports them. The DXY was rejected at the 100.30 level and is now retracing toward the HTF Key Zone, highlighted around 99. My base case is a move down into the 99 region, followed by short term accumulation and a potential bounce back above this level. Until DXY reaches 99, the trend remains bearish, which historically provides strong support for equities, commodities, and other USD sensitive assets. VIX – Volatility Index VIX, which reflects S&P 500 options based volatility expectations, has been declining since the November 21 peak, which aligned with the recent local bottom in the S&P 500. I expect VIX to continue trending lower toward 15.70 and potentially 14.20 levels previously associated with S&P 500 all time highs. However, it is crucial to note that when VIX reaches these zones, markets often experience rapid and unexpected corrections. Therefore, while volatility compression favors short-term bullish continuation, the risk of a sharp reversal increases as VIX approaches these historically significant thresholds. Upcoming Data Releases A high-impact macro week is ahead, especially between Wednesday and Friday. The key releases include: ISM Manufacturing PMI – Monday JOLTS Job Openings – Tuesday ADP Nonfarm Employment – Wednesday Services PMI – Wednesday ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – Wednesday Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday PCE Inflation (September, delayed) – Friday Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Friday The most influential dataset will be the combination of ADP Employment, Initial Jobless Claims, and PCE Inflation. If labor data comes in stronger than expected, the Fed may interpret it as a sign of a resilient labor market reducing the need for additional cuts. Conversely, if PCE inflation comes in hotter than expected, policymakers may see it as a reason to delay cuts. Given that this PCE print is delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, the market reaction may be muted, but it still matters for the December policy narrative. SPY Weekly Outlook – Prediction In my opinion, SPY is positioned to target new all time highs early in the week. Price may first test 686, followed by a brief retracement or consolidation, and then continue higher toward 690, marking a fresh ATH. Under strong bullish momentum, SPY may extend into the 700 zone by the end of the week. These levels represent the primary upside targets I will be monitoring closely. QQQ Weekly Outlook – Prediction QQQ remains structurally weaker than SPY, yet it also maintains strong bullish momentum. The 617 level is a key zone for potential call entries. Price may initially target 625, where a short term rejection could occur, followed by a small pullback. Afterward, QQQ could advance toward its all time high at 637, and in a stronger continuation scenario, possibly extend to 647.5. Conclusion Overall, market conditions have turned constructive again. Sentiment is stabilizing, central bank expectations are supportive, volatility is compressing, and the dollar remains weak all providing a tailwind for equities. This week’s heavy macro calendar may bring volatility spikes, but unless data significantly challenges the rate cut narrative, both SPY and QQQ appear positioned to continue their upward trajectory toward new highs. ⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
AMEX:SPYLong
by UA_CAPITAL
NAS100 Decoded: The Anatomy of a CRT SetupMost traders see random candles; we see a structured story. On this 4H NAS100 chart, we are witnessing a textbook example of Candle Range Theory (CRT) in motion. If you understand the "Three-Phase Engine" inside every candle, the next move becomes clear. The 3-Step Logic Behind This Setup: The Purge (Accumulation): Notice how price dipped to sweep the CRTL (Candle Range Theory Low). This wasn't a random breakdown; it was a Purge Phase designed to grab liquidity and trap retail shorts. By sweeping the low (PL), the market collects the necessary fuel for the reversal. The Mitigation (The Current Trap): Price has reclaimed the range and is currently mitigating within the FVG (Fair Value Gap). In CRT, this is the Mitigation Phase, where price returns to balance or "Equilibrium" (EQ) to fill imbalances before the real move begins. This phase often confuses traders, but it is simply smart money rebalancing positions. The Expansion (The Delivery): With the internal liquidity harvested and the imbalance filled, the logic dictates a move toward the CRTH (Candle Range Theory High). This is our Expansion Phase, targeting the "Expansion Level" (EL). The "eye" icon on the chart represents the Draw on Liquidity (DOL)—the magnetic attraction pulling price toward the liquidity pools resting above the highs. 💡 The Lesson: Don't chase the red candles during the purge. Wait for the mitigation. As the theory states: "The Purge phase creates the opportunity, the Mitigation phase provides the entry, and the Expansion phase delivers the profit". Are you watching this FVG hold, or are you waiting for a break of structure confirmation? Let me know in the comments! 👇 Greetings, MrYounity
VANTAGE:NAS100FTLong
by MrYounity
Weekly QQQ (NQ-US100) Outlook - Prediction (23 NOV)Weekly QQQ (NQ-US100) Outlook - Prediction 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment is driven by fear at the moment. In my opinion, we are trading inside a bearish zone. Unless we get meaningful data or positive news, I expect the market to continue declining. Core PPI will be released on Tuesday at 08:30, which could create a minor bullish reaction; however, I personally do not think this will shift the overall sentiment. PPI is not a strong catalyst for a major sentiment change, so bearish conditions are likely to remain in play. 📈 Technical Analysis Price ran the 613 level strongly and reversed aggressively on Thursday after NVDA earnings. This move trapped the bulls and filled institutional put positions. As I mentioned on Thursday evening, a weak bounce was possible and that is exactly what occurred. 📌 Outlook – Prediction Scenario 1 (Bearish Scenario): I believe this scenario is more likely to play out. I expect price to retrace toward 559. If we see strong bullish momentum on Monday, I will likely become more cautious with my puts. Scenario 2 (Bullish Scenario): If price shows strong momentum on Monday and reprices toward 614, then I will consider buying calls around 606, targeting all-time highs afterward. Follow me for daily SPY–QQQ updates. I will update the idea based on evolving price action. 💬 For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile. ⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by UA_CAPITAL
1
Weekly SPY (ES-US500-SPX) Outlook - Prediction (23 NOV)Weekly SPY (ES-US500-SPX) Outlook - Prediction 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment is driven by fear at the moment. In my opinion, we are trading inside a bearish zone. Unless we get meaningful data or positive news, I expect the market to continue declining. Core PPI will be released on Tuesday at 08:30, which could create a small bullish reaction; however, I personally do not think this will shift overall sentiment. PPI is not a strong catalyst for a major sentiment change, so bearish conditions are likely to remain in play. 📈 Technical Analysis Price ran 675.5, trapped the bulls, and then reversed sharply to the downside exactly as I anticipated in my previous weekly outlook. Price tapped 653 and bounced from that level, which aligned with Friday’s projection. 📌 Outlook – Prediction Scenario 1 (Bearish Scenario): I think this scenario is more likely early in the week. Price may retrace toward 633, which is a significant institutional liquidity pool for me. From there, price could gather energy for a higher expansion or bounce. Scenario 2 (Bullish Scenario): If price aggressively reprices back to 675, I will consider the bias short-term bullish. In that case, I will be buying after a retracement to 667. Follow me for daily SPY–QQQ updates. I will update the idea based on evolving price action. 💬 For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile. ⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by UA_CAPITAL
NQ on Major Support Target 36,490Nasdaq 100 index is on major support since September. This is the area you want to buy and as it goes up take some profits if you want for a potential check back into support around early 2027 (green path). There's the alternative scenario (orange path) that we just trend right up to 36,490 resistance and then have a major pullback to the long term trend. This one is less likely, but possible. Either way if you sell some of your position (like shorter term options) in the middle of the range you're likely to be in a better position than holding the entire time as eventually that lower trend should get hit and that's a lot of time decay to ruin your positions. Good luck!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by bwy