BTC Playbook: Floors Defended, 93.8k Is the Gate__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
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Bitcoin is stabilizing after a swift drawdown, still trading beneath stacked HTF resistances while buyers defend key floors. The structure is corrective with risk-off macro leadership, so rallies face supply unless we reclaim a major pivot.
Momentum: Bearish-to-neutral drift with sell-the-rip behavior until a clean reclaim above 93,813 resets the tone.
Key levels:
- Resistances (HTF): 93,813 (2D pivot) / 95,000–96,000 / 97,000–98,000
- Supports (HTF): 91,500–90,500 (12H/1D floors) / 89,500 (2D pivot low) / 88,517–88,534 (2H/4H cluster)
Volumes: Moderate on 1D; bursts of very high volume recently on 12H/4H around S/R are acting as catalysts.
Multi-timeframe signals: 12H/6H/4H/2H remain Down while 1D is Up; bias stays tactical until 12H stabilizes, and 93,813 is the gate to shift momentum.
Harvest zones: 91,500 (Cluster A) / 88,517–88,534 (Cluster B) — prime dip-buy belts for inverse pyramiding with confirmation on ≥2H.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: NEUTRE VENTE, confirming the corrective tone; treat dip-buys as tactical and demand stronger confirmation than usual.
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Trading Playbook
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The dominant trend is corrective; adopt a tactical stance, buying defended HTF floors with confirmation and fading weak bounces into resistance.
Global bias: Neutral Sell until 93,813 is reclaimed and held; invalidation of the dip-buy thesis if 88,500 breaks on a sustained close.
Opportunities:
- Buy: 90,456–91,496 retest with a ≥2H bullish reversal; target 93,813 then 95–96k.
- Breakout: 12H/1D break-and-hold above 93,813 opens 95–96k then 97–98k.
- Tactical sell: Fade rejections at 93,813 or 95–96k if volume expands and MTF trend stays Down.
Risk zones / invalidations: A daily/12H close below 90,456 risks a slide into 89,500 then 88,5k; failure at 88,5k exposes lower ladders.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
- Nvidia beat lifted AI equities, but crypto bounce lagged; dollar strength capped risk appetite.
- Fed tone mixed; December cut odds priced lower, keeping near-term liquidity tighter.
- US spot ETF 7-day trend negative (Score F −6), muting long follow-through despite occasional positive daily prints.
Harvest Plan (Inverse Pyramid):
- Palier 1 (12.5%): 91,500 (Cluster A) + reversal ≥2H → entry
- Palier 2 (+12.5%): 86,000–87,800 (-4/-6% below Palier 1) (Cluster B included) → reinforcement
- TP: 50% at +12–18% from PMP → recycle cash
- Runner: hold if break & hold first R HTF (93,813)
- Invalidation: < HTF Pivot Low (89,500) or 96h no momentum
- Hedge (1x): Short first R HTF on rejection + bearish trend → neutralize below R
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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HTFs are mixed: 1D stabilizing upward while 12H/6H/4H/2H remain in a controlled downtrend, keeping upside attempts contained by 93,813.
12H/6H/4H/2H/1H/30m: Downtrend with lower highs under 92–94k; best-quality demand sits at 88,517–88,534, with tactical support at 90,456–91,496 for reactive bounces.
1D/2D: 1D Up vs. 2D range; 2D Pivot Low at 89,500 anchors the mid-belt, while 2D Pivot High at 93,813 caps rallies; a decisive reclaim above 93,813 would align HTFs and release upside toward 95–98k.
Confluences/divergences: ISPD DIV shows tactical buy context on dips, but Risk On / Risk Off Indicator is NEUTRE VENTE; respect HTF floors, demand ≥2H–1D confirmation.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro risk is still in charge, with tighter rate-cut odds and a firm dollar weighing on crypto while ETFs/institutional bids help cushion extremes.
Macro events: Nvidia’s blowout earnings fueled AI equities; crypto lagged as the dollar firmed and the Fed’s mixed tone reduced near-term cut odds; BOJ normalization watch adds global rates volatility.
Bitcoin analysis: Structure printed 7-month lows; sellers defend 100k. Reclaiming 93,813 first, then 100k, is needed to reset trend toward the mid/high 90ks.
On-chain data: Weak spot demand, put-leaning options, falling OI; active-investor realized price near ~88.6k aligns with Cluster B (88,5k), bolstering demand quality there.
Expected impact: Macro tilt tempers breakouts; dip-buys at HTF floors remain viable if confirmed, with 93,813 as the main trigger to shift to offense.
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Key Takeaways
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BTC is in a corrective regime with tactical bids at HTF floors and strong caps overhead.
- Trend is neutral-to-bearish until 93,813 is reclaimed; range-to-down behavior favors confirmation-based entries.
- Highest-probability setup: buy confirmed reversals at 90,456–91,496 or 88,517–88,534, take profits into 93,813/95–96k, keep a runner only if 93,813 turns to support.
- Macro factor to watch: negative 7-day ETF trend and a firm USD dampen risk-on impulses.
Trade like a patient tactician: wait for clean confirmations at the floors and respect 93,813 as the gatekeeper.
