OCULOcular Therapeutix: A biotech player on the verge of important data.
The company's value is almost entirely tied to the success of its drug AXPAXLI.
This drug could be the first in its class to receive FDA "superiority" status over the current standard of care (aflibercept). Decisive data are expected in Q1 2026.
The designs of all key studies (SOL-1, HELIOS-2) have been pre-approved by the FDA, minimizing regulatory surprises.
Success will open access not only to the wet AMD market (~$15 billion) but also to the larger group of patients with non-diabetic retinopathy (NPDR), for whom there are virtually no available therapies.
The data release schedule is scheduled for years to come (SOL-1 in 2026, SOL-R in 2027), which will regularly fuel interest in the stock.
OCUL is a typical high-risk biotech bet with clear catalysts. Suitable only for the risk-tolerant portion of a portfolio. The key event that will determine the company's fate for years to come is the wet AMD data in early 2026.
So far, all the company's steps have increased confidence in its success.
OCUL
$OCUL Buying it againThe stock is showing a good wave structure
It has a bit of spiky pullback during its wave 4
The candles have broken the highs and failed a few times
Apart from the above, it's looking really good for another push-up
I've lost 0.5R on it once. If this second and final attempt goes well
then I will recover the previous investment and plus 1R on top.
So here we go again
Buy Price $21.50
Target 1 $ 23.50 (Close Half and Move SL to BE)
Target 2 $29.50
BUY Setup - OCUL Breakout Trade in to wave 5Here we have another stock with a lovely wave 3 up
a nice not too complex wave 4 down
price has squeezed into a tight box allowing us to take a tight 3 dollar stop
Entry Price $21
Stop $18 (or maybe even 18.50)
Target 1: $23.50
Target 2: $26
Fingers Crossed!!!
Company Profile
Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the development and commercialization of therapies for diseases and conditions of the eye. Its product pipeline includes Dextenza, OTX-TP, and OTX-TIC. The company was founded by Amarpreet S. Sawhney and Farhad Khosravi on September 12, 2006 and is headquartered in Bedford, MA.
Earnings Play-OCULOCUL
OCUL has a pattern of descending triangles over the past 4-months (July-November 2019). The company launched its second commercial product Dextenza in the 2nd quarter where it gave away free samples. Its other product 'ReSure Sealent' has posted weak sales numbers ($472K in 1Q19 and ~600K in 2Q19). Dextenza is priced at $850 and is essentially an alternative to prescription eye-drops indicated for the treatment of inflammation and pain post-ocular surgery. Analysts are expecting a decline in EPS compared to the same period in 2018. I think the high price tag (even with J-code) for Dextenza and the strategy of giving away free product will translate to weak sales figures and will send the share price lower. This has been the short-term reaction after 1Q19 and 2Q19 earnings. Although the share price recovered to a high of ~$5.32 this summer it's since decayed and is trading down -17% YTD. Short interest is at 15% which supports a bearish outlook. I think it will reach a ~$3.83 ahead of earnings and then subsequently decline to ~$2.46.
OCUL - POSSIBLE 25% TREND MOVE ON THE DAILYOcular Therapeutix, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the development and commercialization of therapies for diseases and conditions of the eye. Its product pipeline include Dextenza, OTX-TP, and OTX-TIC . The company was founded by Amarpreet S. Sawhney and Farhad Khosravi on September 12, 2006 and is headquartered in Bedford, MA.
SHORT INTEREST
8.24M 07/15/19
P/E Current
-2.78
P/E Ratio (with extraordinary items)
-2.92
Average Recommendation: OVERWEIGHT
Average Target Price: 9.67
OCUL - Speculative smart money Momentum Long from $6.35 OCU was in our smart money watch list as it had Big insider buying on the 13th of August. It also seems forming a fallen angel formation. We think it has good upside potential.
John sent an intraday text alert on August 14th while this was at $6.35 indicating a possible entry zone. This has continued to hold and is something we continue to like as a long idea.
OCUL HAS BROKEN THE DOWNTREND: ONE MORE WAVE UP?OCUL has broken this small degree downtrend. If the level posted on chart holds i'm expectiong one more wave up. Put an eye on earnings (3/9/2017) for a potential catalyst for the next move. A strong breakdown under the level posted on chart invalidates this setup.













