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Oilforecast

Crude oil's downward trend remains unchangedCrude oil rebounded briefly and is currently trading around 63. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels last week, compared to market expectations of only 1.8 million barrels. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels, far exceeding expectations of a 915,000-barrel drop, indicating strong summer travel demand. The latest inventory data suggests a recovery in U.S. demand, particularly the rebound in aviation fuel demand, is providing new growth momentum for global energy consumption. The latest U.S. inventory data, which far exceeded market expectations, has instilled confidence in the market. Despite the increase in demand, some caution remains in the market. This caution is primarily due to geopolitical uncertainty. Due to slow progress in negotiations, sanctions against Russia continue, and the possibility of further restrictions in the future are also weighing on the market. Furthermore, the United States announced that it will impose a 25% tariff on some Indian goods, effective August 27, in response to continued imports of Russian crude oil. Meanwhile, Europe has also imposed restrictions on some Indian refineries. Therefore, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the current crude oil price. Technically, the daily crude oil chart shows that prices have found support above $60 and have repeatedly stabilized near the 100-day moving average, forming a moderate upward trend in the short term. Currently, prices are trading above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating increased bullish momentum. However, there is strong resistance above $65. The 4-hour candlestick chart shows that the price is still in a downtrend. Further upside is possible only if resistance near $65 is broken. A decline below $62 could lead to a retest of the $60 support level. Crude oil short-term strategy: Enter a short position near $63.5 and wait for a decline, targeting $62 and $61.8.
TVC:USOILShort
by Violet_Trading_Strategy
CL (Oil Futures) Short Trade Idea 08/17Setup • Type: Rejection of 4H/1H supply → continuation lower. • Zone to arm: 62.90–63.30 (overlapping 30m/1H supply + prior shelf). • Triggers (must have both): • 15-minute bearish confirmation (lower high + close back below ~62.95 from the zone). • 5-minute bearish close in the zone with order-flow tilt (absorption/failure to lift). (No confirmation = no trade.) Entry & Risk • Entry: MOS on the confirming 5m close within 62.90–63.30. • Stop: 63.62 (above 1H supply high/swing). ≈ 0.32–0.72 risk depending on fill. • Size: Calibrate so full-stop loss = ≤ 1R of your plan. Targets (R:R from 63.10 mid-entry, 0.52 stop) • TP1: 61.80 (prior-week low/shelf) → ~2.5R • TP2: 61.10 (1H demand edge) → ~3.8R • TP3: 60.50 (deeper 4H demand) → ~5.0R Management • Scale 1/2 at TP1; trail above last 5m swing after a fresh LL or hold for TP2. • If price tags 63.30–63.50 and closes 15m above 63.50, invalidate the short idea until structure resets. • Avoid fresh risk within ~10–15 min of EIA Wed 10:30 ET; re-arm after the first post-release 15m bar closes.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by MyAlgoIndex
Gold and crude oil are about to fall below supportToday is Friday, and this week's market is drawing to a close. Gold plunged sharply on Monday, and then fluctuated and corrected from Tuesday to Thursday. Short-term bears are essentially dominating the market. Gold has repeatedly hit new highs before falling, suggesting bulls are digging a hole to bury their enemies. Our current strategy remains bearish, and we should continue to prioritize short positions. The reason is simple: the daily candlestick closed in a bearish pattern. A tombstone candlestick pattern is a bearish signal. Furthermore, all moving averages have been broken, clearly indicating bearish momentum. The only caveat is that 3330 hasn't been broken yet. A break of this level, the bottom of this week, would open up new downside potential. Support lies at 3330 and 3320, resistance at 3349 and 3360, strong resistance at 3375, and the dividing line between strength and weakness at 3349. Crude Oil Market Analysis It's correct to maintain a bearish outlook on crude oil recently. Both the daily and 4H charts are bearish. Yesterday's rebound was a normal technical rebound, providing another opportunity for short positions. Today, we should continue to focus on the 64.50 level. The daily moving average has begun to decline and has already broken through. Barring any unexpected events, we'll soon see the 60.00 level. Fundamental Analysis Keep an eye on the US national debt. The current debt has reached a historical high and is expected to have a market impact in the coming weeks. Gold: Buy short positions around 3348, target 3330-3320 Crude Oil: Buy short positions around 64.00, target 62.00-60.00
TVC:USOILShort
by Violet_Trading_Strategy
1
Oil at Key Support – Bounce or Breakdown?Crude oil is trading around $66.94, showing a bearish correction after failing to hold above $69.05. The chart shows price respecting an ascending channel but currently testing its lower boundary. The recent drop signals weakening bullish momentum, and a confirmed break below the channel could accelerate selling pressure toward lower levels. 📈 Potential Scenarios - Bullish Rebound: If price holds above the channel support (~$66.00–$66.50) and breaks back above $69.05, it may target $71.03 and possibly $72.00. - Bearish Breakdown: A confirmed close below $66.00 can accelerate the downside toward $65.00, with extended targets near $63.50–$62.00. 📊 Key Technical Highlights - Price rejected from the channel top and is now testing lower support. - Key resistance zones: $69.05 (immediate), $71.03 (major). - Key support zones: $66.00 (channel), then $65.00–$63.50 (breakdown targets). - Momentum indicators show weakening buying pressure, favoring cautious trading. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch - Resistance: $69.05 → $71.03 → $72.00 - Support: $66.00 → $65.00 → $63.50 🧭 Trend Outlook - A short-term relief bounce is possible, but failure to reclaim $69.05 keeps sellers in control. - Breaking below the channel would shift the overall outlook to bearish for August. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by SibiSh
WTI: Oil Markets on Edge Despite Trump Considering Major TariffsOil prices could drop if Trump backs down on tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, but short-term bullish catalysts, like geopolitical tensions and bullish speculative bets, may still push prices up before longer-term headwinds take hold. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trump’s threats of steep tariffs on countries buying Russian oil have sent oil prices surging, as traders fear a global supply crunch if Russian barrels are cut off. But here’s the twist: Trump has a history of backing down or delaying tariffs after using them as leverage. When he does, oil prices usually fall, as the immediate risk of supply disruption fades. If he caves in again by the deadline, which is 10 to 12 days from 4 August, or extends it, oil prices could drop. The bigger picture also appears bearish: OPEC+ is ramping up supply, global demand is slowing and expected to drop in H2, and inventories are rising (first glimpse by EIA, Wed). But with the deadline falling around 14–16 August, 2025, short-term bullish catalysts could spark a rally up to the 38.2%-61.8 % Fibonacci retracement levels, positioning WTI better for declines (conditional on Trump!). This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:WTIShort
by ThinkMarkets
Crude oil: Sell around 66.50, targeting 63.00-60.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: We've stated this dozens of times before: the overall trend of crude oil is bearish. As long as crude oil doesn't break above 70.00, we can maintain our bearish outlook. Today, we maintain our bearish outlook and continue to sell on any rebounds. Crude oil fundamentals don't support buying. The previous easing of tensions in the Middle East has also been suppressing crude oil prices for a long time, and the ever-changing tariff war is also suppressing crude oil. However, crude oil hasn't broken through 63.00 yet. Today, we're focused on selling if it breaks through. If it doesn't, we'll wait for a small rebound to sell. Focus on selling at 66.50. Fundamental Analysis: The tariff war has been the most influential fundamental factor affecting gold recently, and in the long term, it supports gold. This surge in gold prices is driven by Trump's renewed turmoil. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy remains a key focus. Trading Strategy: Crude oil: Sell around 66.50, targeting 63.00-60.00.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Oil Prices Form Bearish Head & Shoulders – Key Neckline in FocusWTI crude oil is showing a clear Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is a strong bearish reversal signal. The left shoulder formed in early July, followed by a higher peak forming the head in mid-July, and finally the right shoulder near the current levels, which is lower than the head. The neckline is positioned around $66.00, acting as a key support level. Currently, the price is trading at $67.34, hovering slightly above this neckline, indicating that the market is at a critical decision point. A confirmed break below the neckline could accelerate bearish momentum, targeting the $62.20 – $62.80 zone based on the pattern’s measured move. However, if the neckline holds, a possible bounce toward $68.50 – $69.00 could occur, but overall bias remains bearish unless the price can break and sustain above $69.00. Key Price Levels: - Resistance: $68.50 – $69.00 - Neckline Support: $66.00 - Bearish Target (if confirmed): $62.20 – $62.80 Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by SibiSh
6
Crude oil: Sell around 70.20, target 65.00-64.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: Yesterday's crude oil market was very strong, with buying driving the market higher. The daily chart ultimately closed with a clear bullish candlestick. Buying on the daily chart is testing the resistance level between 70.00 and 70.60. After two consecutive days of bullish closes, and with clear bullish candlesticks, I predict another surge today. Let's look at the daily chart. The daily chart shows a significant rebound after a significant drop. Today, focus on selling opportunities between 70.00 and 70.60. A break of this level will change the overall selling trend. The strategy remains to sell high and be bearish. Fundamental Analysis: Today, focus on the ADP employment data and the EIA crude oil inventory data. The key news will be the interest rate results during the US trading session, along with speeches. Trading Recommendations: Crude oil: Sell around 70.20, target 65.00-64.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
1
Crude oil-----sell near 67.50, target 65.00-64.00Crude oil market analysis: The idea of crude oil today is still bearish. Xiaoyang predicts that it will rebound first and then continue to fall. Consider selling near 67.50 if it rebounds. Crude oil is basically weak if it does not stand above 70.00. Crude oil is a repair market after a big drop. In theory, it will continue to fall after the repair. In addition, pay attention to crude oil inventory data later. Operation suggestions: Crude oil-----sell near 67.50, target 65.00-64.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Crude oil-----sell near 67.00, target 65.00-63.00Crude oil market direction: The recent daily crude oil line has been hovering, and it feels like it is falling or not falling. The daily crude oil line is still bearish. Let's continue to sell it on the rebound. For crude oil today, we focus on the suppression of 67.00. Consider selling it at this rebound position. The daily crude oil line needs to break the 64.00 position to see real selling force, otherwise it is a repair shock with a very small amplitude. Fundamental analysis: The latest news is that the United States and the European Union have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which overall supports the US dollar and suppresses gold. In addition, this week, pay attention to ADP employment data, non-agricultural employment data, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and speech. Operation suggestions: Crude oil-----sell near 67.00, target 65.00-63.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Crude oil ----- Sell near 67.50, target 65.00-63.00Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has been falling recently, but the decline is not large, and the rebound will not be large. Consider selling crude oil if it rebounds slightly. The crude oil idea is bearish. It is difficult for crude oil to rise sharply without fundamentals, but we insist on taking losses in operation. If there is no loss, a piece of news will make it take off directly. Crude oil focuses on 64.00 support, and suppresses 67.50 and 69.50. Consider selling opportunities when the Asian session rebounds to 67.50. Fundamental analysis: Tariffs have not affected the market recently, and no major news has been announced. The market is relatively calm. Operational suggestions: Crude oil ----- Sell near 67.50, target 65.00-63.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Crude oil-----sell near 67.50, target 65.00-63.00Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has started a new contract. The new contract is still not moving much at present, and the contract spread is not much. The daily line has begun to decline. Today's idea is to sell at a rebound of 67.50. The suppression position is 67.50 and 69.00, and the support is around 64.00. If this position is broken, there will be a greater room for decline. Fundamental analysis: There is no major news in the recent fundamentals. The situation in the Middle East is still relatively stable. There is no new rest on tariffs, and the impact on the market is limited. Operational suggestions: Crude oil-----sell near 67.50, target 65.00-63.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Crude oil------sell near 68.80, target 66.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis: Recent crude oil is actually very easy to operate. Sell when it rebounds to a high position. Don't worry about the position. In addition, the daily K-line has also begun to decline, and it is difficult to form a large rebound. The new daily moving average begins to sort. If there is no fundamental support in the future, crude oil has a lot of room to fall, and it will fall below 58 in the future. Sell it when it rebounds to around 68.80 today. Fundamental analysis: Today is a holiday in Tokyo, Japan. In addition, there is no major data this week. We focus on the fundamentals. Trump's tariffs are still a focus. Operational suggestions: Crude oil------sell near 68.80, target 66.00-62.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
1
Crude oil---sell near 67.50, target 65.00-60.00Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has also started to fluctuate recently. Pay attention to the impact of contract delivery on the trend of crude oil. The daily line of crude oil does not show the strength of its rebound. In terms of operation, it is still a rebound sell. Crude oil continues to be bearish. The situation in the Middle East has not made any major moves temporarily, and the support for crude oil is limited. Pay attention to the selling opportunities near 67.30 today. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---sell near 67.50, target 65.00-60.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
1
Crude oil-----Sell near 66.80, target 65.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis: The recent crude oil daily line began to decline, but a small V appeared last night, which was also caused by the situation in the Middle East. Israel bombed Syria and crude oil began to rebound. Overall, crude oil is still bearish. We consider continuing to sell it when it rebounds. It has not broken near 64.00, and it is difficult to form a large unilateral. The suppression position is near 66.80. Consider selling it near it. Fundamental analysis: Trump’s dissatisfaction with Powell has not been a day or two. Conflict is inevitable, and the impact on gold is also short-term. Yesterday’s pull-up and dive is a case in point. Operational suggestions Crude oil-----Sell near 66.80, target 65.00-62.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Crude oil------sell near 70.00, target 66.70-63.00Crude oil market analysis: Recently, crude oil has been rising, and buying is slowly climbing, but the amplitude is not particularly large. The daily line has not formed a large buying pattern. It is currently a technical repair market after falling too much. Today's idea is to sell on the rebound. Pay attention to the suppression near 70.00. If this position is broken, it may change the short-term trend and buying may rise. Fundamental analysis: Last week, Trump increased tariffs on Canada and is about to increase tariffs on Brazil. There is no sign of stopping the tariff war. It is long-term bullish for gold. The situation in the Middle East has not completely stopped, and it is also long-term suppression of the US dollar to support gold. Operation suggestions: Crude oil------sell near 70.00, target 66.70-63.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Geopolitics vs. Technical: Will Oil Correct -7%?Oil ( FX_IDC:USDBRO ) rose more than +20% after the start of tensions between Iran and Israel on Friday . I hope this tension ends as soon as possible because tensions have no winners. The behavior and price movements of oil will certainly depend on the increase or decrease of tensions in the Middle East , but for the coming hours we can have a technical view . Oil is currently moving in the Resistance zone($78.70-$74.70) and near the Resistance lines and the Yearly Pivot Point . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Oil has completed the second five-impulse waves . So that wave 5 is Truncated . I expect Oil to decline in the coming hours, this decline could be -7% . Note: If the USA is added to the Middle East tensions, Oil prices could rise again, so pay more attention to capital management. Note: Stop Loss: $79.00 Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. U.S. Dollar/ BRENT CRUDE OIL (USDBRO), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
FX_IDC:USDBROShort
by pejman_zwin
15
Crude oil------Buy around 74.00, target 75.00-76.50Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has been strong recently, and it is also because of the support of fundamentals and inventory data that crude oil has begun to strengthen. Today's idea is still bullish on crude oil. Continue to buy after the retracement. The daily moving average has begun to diverge. The small support for buying has reached around 72.00. The suppression position is around 74.00 and 77.60. I estimate that it will form a small shock and then break through and rise again. If it does not break 70.00, it is still strong. Buy crude oil around 74.00 today. Fundamental analysis: The interest rate results announced by the Federal Reserve last night remained unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, and the fourth consecutive meeting remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. The uncertainty of the United States about the future has led to no major changes in monetary policy in the near future. Operational suggestions Crude oil------Buy around 74.00, target 75.00-76.50
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90Oil market analysis: Recently, the daily crude oil line has started to pull up, and buying has begun to rise. The retracement is our opportunity to buy again. The moving average support of the daily crude oil line has begun to move up, and the pattern has reached around 69.60. Today's idea is to buy at 72.00. The pattern is difficult to see, just buy repeatedly. The fight between Iran and Israel is a great support for crude oil. In addition, there is EIA crude oil inventory data today. Fundamental analysis: Previously, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors in the fundamentals. Indeed, the situation in the Middle East has also changed the way of gold and crude oil. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and Chairman Powell's speech during the US trading time. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90Oil market analysis: Recently, the daily crude oil line has started to pull up, and buying has begun to rise. The retracement is our opportunity to buy again. The moving average support of the daily crude oil line has begun to move up, and the pattern has reached around 69.60. Today's idea is to buy at 72.00. The pattern is difficult to see, just buy repeatedly. The fight between Iran and Israel is a great support for crude oil. In addition, there is EIA crude oil inventory data today. Fundamental analysis: Previously, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors in the fundamentals. Indeed, the situation in the Middle East has also changed the way of gold and crude oil. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and Chairman Powell's speech during the US trading time. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors