WTI OIL targeting at least $56.00 on the short-term.WTI Oil (USOIL) continues to expand its 4-month Channel Down and has repeatedly been rejected on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in the past 40 days.
As mentioned before, this is similar to September's price action, which eventually tested the previous Support before breaking it and move to a new Lower Low on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we are still expecting to see $56.00 on the short-term.
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Oilsignals
WTI OIL Short-term relief rebound before a Lower Low?WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a 1-month Channel Down and has just completed its strongest Bearish Leg (-5.91%). All previous three Bearish Legs eventually bottomed and rebounded into the new Bullish Legs towards the Sell Zone consisting of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1D MA50 (red trend-line) range to form a new Lower High.
In 2 out of those 3 cases, it even exceeded the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, we expect a short-term rise now to subsequently be sold towards the -0.236 Fibonacci extension. Our medium-term Target remains 56.500.
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WTI Oil Market Outlook: Sell Zones & Key LevelsOil is still respecting a broader downtrend structure with consistent lower highs and lower lows. Price recently reacted from the $62–63 resistance zone (trendline + supply) confirming another lower high and maintaining bearish momentum. As long as oil stays below this zone the chart suggests a continuation toward the downside with next supports sitting near $56.30, $52.50 and potentially $50.00 if bearish pressure accelerates.
Only a clean breakout above $63 with strong candles would invalidate this bearish outlook and shift momentum toward the $66–70 zone.
🔻 Sell Setup 1
- Entry Zone: 62.00 – 63.00
- Stop Loss: 63.80
- Targets: TP1 59.00, TP2 56.30, TP3 52.50
🔻 Sell Setup 2
- Entry: Break below 57.50 and retest
- Stop Loss: 59.20
- Targets: TP1 56.30, TP2 52.50, TP3 50.00
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
WTI OIL Is it possible to crash at $30.00?WTI Oil (USOIL) has been declining for 3 straight months (current red 1M candle is the 4th one) since the June 2025 rejection on the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). That has been the last rejection of a series of Lower Highs rejections on the 1W MA100 in the past 2 years.
On the much longer-term scale, this is the aftermath of the March 2022 market Top, made as a direct result of the Ukraine - Russia war. On a 17-year horizon, that was the 2nd Lower High of the multi-year Channel Down that WTI has been trading in since the July 2008 Top of the Housing Crisis.
As you can see, there is a high degree of symmetry on this pattern with Lower Lows in particular (market bottoms) getting formed around every 5-6 years. The use of the Time Cycles can fairly accurately project this. The next one is estimated to be towards the end of 2026, which matches perfectly the projected Bear Cycle bottom on the stock markets.
Based on this model, we may very well see WTI drop to as low as $30.00. A fairly solid bottom buy indicator would be when (if) the 1M RSI breaks below its 30.00 (oversold) barrier.
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WTI Crude Oil – Update
I’ve entered a short position around this zone.
I don’t predict the market — I just follow opportunities.
It doesn’t matter what happens after entry; I simply follow my plan.
Those who’ve been following me know my system:
At a 1:1 reward, I close half of my position — that means zero risk.
If the market reverses and hits my stop, I lose nothing.
If it keeps moving, I use a trailing stop to catch as much of the move as possible.
That’s what real position management looks like.
And if my level breaks, I don’t just sit and watch — I’ll go long with the market.
I don’t predict or guess the future;
I trade with discipline, patience, and respect for the market.
I’m a trader, not a fortune teller.
WTI OIL Successive 1D MA50 rejections. Sell Signal.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Down with the price experiencing successive rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the October 24 Lower High.
Given that the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level was also filled (as on the previous Lower High), we expect this inability to break above, to kickstart the new Bearish Leg.
As previously, the Target is the Support at $56.00.
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Crude Oil – Sell around 61.50, target 58.00-56.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Crude oil has recently started to decline on the daily chart, with a larger drop than before. Previously, the declines were smaller, but recently the fall has accelerated. Sell on any rebounds. Pay attention to the resistance around 61.40. The daily moving averages are starting to diverge. A break below 55 would trigger a major daily downtrend. Currently, the market is experiencing a volatile decline.
Fundamental Analysis:
Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have signaled continued interest rate cuts. It is expected that the rapid easing policy will continue, which will support further buying and upward movement in gold.
Trading Recommendation:
Crude Oil – Sell around 61.50, target 58.00-56.00
Crude Oil – Sell around 61.00, target 60.00-58.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Continue to sell on rallies, as the market is bearish. Sell on any rebounds. The daily chart shows a downward trend, with buying pressure failing. Continue selling on today's rebounds. The crude oil inventory data hasn't changed the overall trend. Short-term fluctuations are expected, but the long-term trend remains bearish. The strategy is relatively simple: continue selling. The new major resistance level for crude oil is around 62.00.
Fundamental Analysis:
Today's NFP employment data will change market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, in the long term, the possibility of further interest rate cuts is greater.
Trading Recommendation:
Crude Oil – Sell around 61.00, target 60.00-58.00.
WTI OIL 4H Channel Down aiming for a Lower Low.WTI Oil (USOIL) is extending the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) rejection of October 24 and has formed a short-term Channel Down. We are currently on its second Bearish Leg following a new rejection this time on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
With the first Bearish Leg declining by -4.72%, we expect the current one to replicate this drop and target $58.60.
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Sell crude oil around 61.50, with a target of 60.00-58.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Maintain a sell stance on crude oil. Every rebound is a selling opportunity. Crude oil has seen relatively small fluctuations in recent months, with minimal market reaction and constant buying and selling. Consider selling if it rebounds to 61.50 today. Previous inventory data releases also had a temporary impact, leading to selling pressure.
Fundamental Analysis:
Today, focus on the ADP employment data, a leading indicator for non-farm payrolls. Also, pay attention to the new crude oil inventory data.
Trading Recommendation:
Sell crude oil around 61.50, with a target of 60.00-58.00.
Sell crude oil around 62.00, with a target of 60.00-58.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Crude oil has been trending downwards with fluctuations recently. Our strategy remains to sell at higher prices; any rebound is an opportunity to sell. Today, watch for opportunities to sell around 62.00. Currently, the interest rate cut appears to be having an effective impact on crude oil. Our strategy remains unchanged: if it breaks below 60.00, consider selling on any small rebound.
Fundamental Analysis:
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut at its meeting, in line with market expectations...
Trading Recommendation:
Sell crude oil around 62.00, with a target of 60.00-58.00.
WTI OIL 1D MA50 rejection. Sell Signal.Last time (October 14, see chart below) we took a look on WTI Oil (USOIL), we gave a Buy Signal right at the bottom of its 3-month Channel Down, which eventually hit our 62.00 Target:
This time we have a Sell Signal as the price and the Channel's Bullish Leg got rejected on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). When that happened in September, the market started to decline and reached its lower Support.
As a result, we expect Oil to turn bearish here, targeting $56.00.
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Crude oil: Sell around 62.50, target 60.00-58.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Crude oil fell again, in line with our expectations. Today's crude oil price remains bearish. Sell on any rebound. The strategy for crude oil remains to follow the market. Consider selling if crude oil rebounds to 62.50 today. This level has been successfully suppressed. The impact of crude oil inventory data is only temporary. There are no recent data that will have a significant impact on crude oil prices. Focus on the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Fundamental Analysis:
The previous smooth Sino-US trade negotiations were positive for the US dollar, leading to a sharp drop in gold's safe-haven sentiment. Another major data point this week is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Trading Recommendations:
Crude oil: Sell around 62.50, target 60.00-58.00.
Crude oil: Sell near 63.00, targeting 60.00-58.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Crude oil has been volatile, with few significant unilateral moves. Today, we're focusing on short-term rebound opportunities. We recommend selling high and taking a bearish stance. The impact of crude oil fundamentals and news is short-lived. Previous inventory data support buying, but we should still sell as crude oil nears 63.00.
Fundamental Analysis:
The decline in gold prices is ultimately due to the fading of news, which has led to a decline in risk aversion. We will continue to monitor the Federal Reserve's new monetary policy.
Trading Recommendations:
Crude oil: Sell near 63.00, targeting 60.00-58.00.
Crude oil - Sell around 63.60, target 61.00-58.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Crude oil inventory data triggered a surge in buying. The daily price rebounded to around 60.00 after two sessions. The current daily chart suggests selling pressure remains. This week, our outlook remains bearish. I predict a corrective rebound this week, followed by continued declines in the second half of the week. Crude oil is unlikely to see a significant rebound, so continue selling. Sell if it rebounds to around 63.60 today.
Fundamental Analysis:
For fundamentals, we're focusing on key data and geopolitical developments. This week will feature the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate decision, and the market currently anticipates continued easing.
Trading Recommendations:
Crude oil - Sell around 63.60, target 61.00-58.00
WTI Crude Oil Forms Major Head and Shoulders BreakdownHi guys.
WTI has formed a massive Head and Shoulders pattern on the weekly timeframe, signaling a potential long-term bearish reversal structure.
After the right shoulder completed, price decisively broke below the neckline around the $67–$70 range, confirming the pattern breakdown. This neckline now acts as a major resistance zone and aligns closely with the descending trendline, adding confluence to the bearish bias.
The recent rebound appears to be a corrective pullback toward the neckline or flip area, before potentially continuing to the downside. As long as WTI remains below the descending trendline and neckline zone, bearish momentum is expected to dominate.
The projected measured move target from the pattern suggests two possible support objectives:
First target: around $49.40, corresponding to prior consolidation and structural support.
Final target: near $43.40, aligning with historical demand and the full measured move projection from the Head and Shoulders formation.
Overall, unless WTI reclaims and sustains above the $70 area, the medium- to long-term bias remains bearish, with corrective rallies likely to face selling pressure.
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Crude oil - Sell around 61.00, target 58.00-56.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Crude oil previously started to decline on the daily chart. Yesterday's daily chart rebounded due to the EIA crude oil inventory data. Today's crude oil strategy remains bearish. Continue selling on rebounds. There's no chance of a reversal in crude oil sales, and the data-induced rebound is only temporary. Focus on sell opportunities at 61.00 today.
Fundamental Analysis:
The alarming crude oil inventory data is supporting crude oil buying prices. Furthermore, whether Federal Reserve officials have signaled further interest rate cuts will support gold buying.
Trading Recommendations:
Crude oil - Sell around 61.00, target 58.00-56.00
WTI OIL Strong long-term rebound incoming.Over a month ago (September 17, see chart below), we gave a strong Sell Signal on WTI Oil (USOIL) as the price was again rejected on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and was headed towards the inner Higher Lows trend-line, easily hitting our $59.50 Target in the process:
Yet again we consult the more reliable long-term time-frames, now making a bullish call as the price is already rebounding this week on the Higher Lows. Given also the identical 1W RSI pattern with 2023, we expect a bounce towards at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $69.50, same as the December 2023 - March 2024 rally.
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Crude oil - Sell around 59.60, target 58.00-56.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Gold's significant moves haven't impacted crude oil, which is still recovering. Consider selling after today's rebound to 59.50. The overall trend is bearish, and the short-term outlook is bearish as well. However, the short-term volatility is quite strong, so don't sell. Crude oil needs to wait for opportunities. If there's a position, buy; if not, wait. Recent crude oil inventory data is also disappointing, which is likely to suppress crude oil prices.
Fundamental Analysis:
Watch the EIA crude oil inventory data today.
Trading Recommendations:
Crude oil - Sell around 59.60, target 58.00-56.00






















