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BTCUSDT Long: Buyers Defend Channel Support, Upside in FocusHello traders! Here’s a clear technical breakdown of BTCUSDT (4H) based on the current chart structure. After a prolonged consolidation phase defined by a broad range, BTC established multiple internal breakouts, highlighting volatility but no clear directional dominance. This range acted as an accumulation zone, with price repeatedly reacting around key horizontal levels. From the lower boundary of the range, BTC formed a clear pivot low, which marked the start of a bullish recovery and shift in short-term market structure. Currently, BTC is holding above the Demand Zone around 86,800, which aligns with prior range support and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. This area has already shown buyer reaction, reinforcing it as a key level for continuation. Price is now attempting to push higher toward the upper boundary of the channel. My scenario: as long as BTCUSDT holds above the Demand Zone and respects the ascending channel support, the bias remains bullish. I expect buyers to defend this area and attempt a move back toward the 89,000 Supply/Resistance Zone as the first target. A clean breakout and acceptance above this level would confirm bullish continuation and open the path toward higher targets within the channel. A breakdown below demand would invalidate the long scenario. Manage your risk!
Long
by heniitrading
31
XAU/USD | Gold Sharp Sell-Off After ATH, Liquidity Void in Play!By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that after our last analysis, price rallied to $4550 and delivered over 700 more pips of profit. After that strong move, gold entered a very aggressive correction. In less than 16 hours, price dropped from $4550 to $4300, which means a $250 or 2500 pips heavy sell-off. Right now, gold is trading around $4329. This sharp drop has created a very large liquidity void, and I expect this gap to be filled in the short term with a bullish rebound. The expected short-term upside is around 300 to 800 pips, while the medium-term potential could reach 1500 to 2500 pips. The key medium-term demand zone to watch is $4210 to $4269.This analysis will be updated. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OPOFINANCE:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
51
XAUUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on Gold? Gold is moving within a well-defined ascending channel. After reaching the upper boundary of the channel, a bearish divergence has formed, which has triggered a price reaction and a corrective move. This correction is expected to extend toward the lower boundary of the channel, which aligns with the previous high and acts as a strong support zone. In this area, we anticipate a bullish reaction and a potential continuation of the upward trend. At the support zone, we will be waiting for confirmation signals before entering any long positions. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by HAMED_AZ
21
XAUUSD: Bullish Trend Remains Intact in Rising ChannelHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current XAUUSD (Gold) setup. Market Analysis Gold has confirmed a bullish shift after breaking out of a prior triangle structure, where price was previously compressed between descending resistance and ascending support. This breakout marked a clear change in market structure and initiated a strong impulsive move higher. After the breakout, price transitioned into a consolidation range, indicating temporary balance before continuation. Currently, XAUUSD established a clear upward channel, respecting both the lower channel support and the ascending trend line. This structure confirms sustained bullish momentum with higher highs and higher lows. Price has continued to trend higher and recently pushed into a key Resistance Zone, where the market is currently showing signs of reaction and testing supply. Below current price, the former resistance has flipped into a well-defined Support Zone, which aligns with the prior breakout level and the lower boundary of the upward channel. This area has already shown buyer response, reinforcing its importance as a demand zone within the bullish structure. My Scenario & Strategy My primary scenario remains bullish as long as XAUUSD holds above the Support Zone and respects the upward channel structure. I expect buyers to defend this area and attempt another push toward the Resistance Zone. A successful breakout and acceptance above resistance would confirm continuation of the bullish trend and open the path toward higher targets. However, a strong rejection at resistance followed by a breakdown below the support zone would weaken the bullish structure and suggest a deeper correction or consolidation. For now, price action continues to favor buyers while the ascending structure remains intact. That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ratner
19
EURUSD Failed Break Above 1.1800 Opens Path to 1.1740Hello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on EURUSD (4H) based on the current chart structure. EURUSD is trading within a broader bullish structure after breaking above a descending resistance formation earlier on the chart, signaling a clear shift in market control from sellers to buyers. Following this breakout, price entered a consolidation phase, forming a well-defined range, which reflected temporary balance before trend continuation. The subsequent upside breakout from this range, supported by a rising trend line, confirmed renewed bullish momentum and continuation of the upward structure. Currently, price is testing a key Resistance Level near 1.1800, where a fake breakout has already occurred, suggesting potential exhaustion of buyers at the highs. This resistance aligns with a descending resistance line, increasing the probability of seller reaction. Below current price, the former resistance has flipped into a Support Level around 1.1740, overlapping with the Buyer Zone and the previous breakout area, making it a critical demand region. My scenario: as long as price is rejected from the 1.1800 resistance, a corrective move toward 1.1740 is likely (TP1). A clean breakdown below support would open the door for a deeper pullback. A confirmed breakout above 1.1800 would invalidate the short bias and signal further upside. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
38
XAUUSD – Trend Structure & Key Levels Reaction Gold is currently respecting a clean ascending trendline, showing strong bullish structure after a corrective pullback. Price has reacted precisely from a marked support zone, confirming buyer interest and trend continuation potential. The current move is approaching a major resistance zone, where reactions are expected. A healthy bullish scenario involves a pullback toward support or the trendline before continuation. Alternatively, rejection from resistance may trigger a deeper retracement into demand. This idea focuses purely on market structure, trend alignment, and key supply & demand zones. Wait for confirmation and manage risk accordingly. Educational & technical analysis only. Not financial advice.
TVC:GOLD
by QuantGeek_X
10
XAUUSD – A Healthy Reset Before Trend ContinuationHello, I’m Camila. Observing the XAUUSD H4 chart, I believe the market is unfolding exactly as a technical correction within a well-defined uptrend. After price was rejected at the upper resistance of the ascending channel, gold deliberately pulled back to retest the channel’s dynamic support. This move should not be interpreted as a trend reversal, but rather as a natural and rational response following a steep and extended rally. What stands out to me is how price behaves upon reaching the support zone. Selling pressure has not expanded further; instead, downside momentum has clearly slowed, accompanied by signs of supply absorption at the highlighted support area. This is classic price behavior in a healthy uptrend: the market retraces to lower levels to assess whether buyers remain committed to defending the underlying structure. From a structural perspective, the ascending channel remains intact. Price has not broken below the lower boundary of the channel, and the entire pullback still falls well within acceptable corrective limits. This indicates that the medium-term bullish trend remains unbroken. I see no clear evidence of distribution at this stage; rather, the market appears to be undergoing a temporary rebalancing of supply and demand before the primary trend resumes. My preferred scenario is for gold to stabilize and consolidate around the dynamic support zone, marked as a BUY area on the chart. If buying interest continues to emerge and price maintains its higher-low structure, the market is likely to form a technical rebound. From there, gold could move back toward a retest of the upper resistance zone previously highlighted. A decisive breakout above that area would confirm trend continuation and open the door to higher targets in the next phase. From a macro perspective, the broader backdrop continues to support this bullish outlook. Ongoing global economic and geopolitical uncertainties sustain demand for safe-haven assets, while expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve stance help cap U.S. dollar strength and Treasury yields. In this environment, pullbacks in gold are better viewed as strategic opportunities, rather than early signals of a trend reversal. In summary, based on what the chart is showing, I consider the current decline to be a necessary step back before the next advance. Once the market completes its support test and buying strength is reaffirmed, gold is likely to revisit resistance and continue along the upward path already established. Wishing you disciplined trading, a calm mindset, and decisions aligned with market structure.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Camila_Roja
15
EURAUD Price Update – Clean & Clear ExplanationEUR/AUD moving inside a descending (falling) channel, which means the overall trend has been bearish in recent sessions. Price was making lower highs and lower lows, respecting the channel boundaries. Price has now reached the lower boundary of the falling channel, which is an important support zone around 1.7520–1.7550, there is strong demand/support, where buyers have started to step in a bullish reaction can be seen from this area, suggesting selling pressure is weakening. If price holds above the support zone, a pullback upward is likely first upside target is around 1.7650–1.7700, which is a previous resistance / supply zone a successful break and hold above this area could push price higher toward 1.7770–1.7800, as shown by the projected move. if price fails to hold the support and breaks below 1.7500, the bearish trend may continue toward 1.7470 or lower. If you find it please like and comments for this post and share thanks.
Long
by Pintu_sahu01
21
Why Did XAUUSD Drop Sharply in the Latest Session?I don’t see this decline as abnormal. It is more the result of several factors aligning at the same time. First, large-scale profit taking. Since the beginning of 2025, gold has gained more than 70%. As price approached the 4.55x area — a very strong psychological level — institutional money began locking in profits. Funds often distribute positions in a concentrated manner to optimize liquidity, which is why price dropped quickly instead of correcting gradually. Second, the short-term macro backdrop has turned less supportive. The USD has seen a technical rebound, while US Treasury yields remain elevated around 4.1%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. That alone is enough to create pressure when price is already in an overbought state. Third, thin year-end liquidity. During the December 30–31 period, many funds have already closed their books. In such conditions, a single large sell order can push price much further than usual, making the move appear more aggressive than it actually is. Finally, technical factors played a role. Price closed below the fast EMA, broke the short-term balance zone, and triggered stop-losses from trend-following long positions. This created a cascading sell effect that quickly dragged price down toward the 4.33x area. The key takeaway: the larger structure remains intact. Price is still holding above the slower EMA and has not broken the H4 swing low around 4.28x–4.30x. Therefore, this move should be seen as a sharp correction within an uptrend, not a trend reversal signal.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DomicChaina
25
XAUUSD – Retesting Support Before the Next Upside MoveHello, I'm Camila. Observing the H4 chart, I can see that gold has proactively pulled back to rete afterhow the market is reacting at lower prices. Instead of continued selling pressure, the current candles show a clear loss of bearish momentum, while buying interest is beginning to re-emerge. This is typical behavior in a healthy uptrend, where the market reassesses its foundation before committing to the next move. From a structural perspective, the bullish trend remains intact. Price is still trading above the ascending trendline, and there are no confirmed signals of a structural breakdown. The recent volatility appears to be more about rebalancing supply and demand than distribution. In momentum-driven uptrends, pullbacks to test support are not signs of weakness; they are often necessary steps to determine whether buyers are still committed to defending higher prices. On the fundamental side, the broader backdrop continues to favor gold. Ongoing global economic and geopolitical risks remain unresolved, sustaining demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a relatively accommodative policy stance help limit upside pressure on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. However, with a busy U.S. economic calendar ahead, upcoming data releases could generate uneven intraday volatility, making it unlikely for gold to move in a straight line and more likely to continue its familiar “advance-and-pause” rhythm. The area I am watching most closely is the current support zone, where price is now reacting. If gold continues to hold this area and shows clearer buying responses, the bullish structure will be further reinforced. In such scenarios, the market often completes its base-building process before resuming the broader trend that has already been established. Wishing you disciplined and successful trading.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Camila_Roja
32
Gold - Today marks the official bullrun top!💣Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is creating its top formation: 🔎Analysis summary: Over the course of the past couple of months, we witnessed an incredible rally of +140% on Gold. But this rally ended today, with Gold retesting a massive resistance trendline. And since Gold is totally overextended, it is now time for a healthy correction of -45%. 📝Levels to watch: $4,500 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SwingTraderPhil
18
Lingrid | GOLD Long Entry After Aggressive Sell-OffOANDA:XAUUSD reacted strongly from the lower support band around 4,300–4,320, where price respected the rising channel base and quickly rejected further downside. The sharp bounce suggests that sell pressure may be exhausting after the recent top, with buyers stepping back in at a key structural level. As long as price holds above this support and builds acceptance above 4,345, the rebound could extend toward the 4,450 level initially. A clean push above that zone would open the way for a renewed attempt toward the upper resistance. ➡️ Primary scenario: hold above 4,345 → continuation toward 4,450 and higher ⚠️ Risk scenario: loss of 4,300 invalidates the setup and signals deeper correction If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lingrid
8
#SILVER(XAGUSD): Another Big Buy In Making, 2026 We Are Ready! **SMC|ICT Based Analysis On Silver (XAGUSD)** Dear Traders, We extend our best wishes for the upcoming New Year. 🔺Today, we will analyse Silver (XAGUSD). The month of December typically presents reduced market liquidity and volume due to numerous holidays. The market initiated with a positive liquidity gap at $83.50, subsequently experiencing a significant decline. The price descended to $70.44 and is currently trading at $71.51. This substantial sell-off indicates a high probability of further price depreciation. We anticipate the price to fall within the range of $68 to $66. 🔺Entering a position within our identified key levels may prove profitable, with take-profit targets established at the following key levels: the first at $75, the second at $78, and the swing key level at $85. These levels should be utilized as take-profit objectives. For stop-loss placement, we suggest setting it at $66, or at your discretion. 🔺We wish you a prosperous New Year and hope this year fulfils your aspirations. We sincerely appreciate your continued support throughout the years. Team SetupsFX_
CAPITALCOM:SILVERLong
by Setupsfx_
27
EURUSD: Bullish Structure Holds - Market Eyes 1.1810 ResistanceHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup. Market Analysis EURUSD is trading within a well-defined bullish structure after breaking out of a descending triangle formation, signaling a clear shift in control from sellers to buyers. The initial breakout was followed by a brief consolidation phase, where price formed a tight range, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution. After this pause, the pair continued higher and successfully broke above the triangle resistance line, confirming bullish continuation. Currently, EURUSD is trading above a rising trend line, which continues to act as dynamic support. The market recently tested the Resistance Zone around 1.1810, where selling pressure appeared, leading to a short-term pullback. This retracement is now developing toward the Support Zone near 1.1760, which aligns with the previous breakout area and the ascending structure. As long as price holds above this support, the broader bullish trend remains intact and the pullback appears corrective. My Scenario & Strategy My primary scenario remains bullish while EURUSD holds above the 1.1760 Support Zone. I expect buyers to defend this area and push price higher for another attempt toward the 1.1810 Resistance Zone. Therefore, a clean breakout and acceptance above resistance would confirm bullish continuation and open the way for further upside expansion. However, a decisive breakdown below support would weaken the structure and signal a deeper correction. For now, price action continues to favor buyers as long as the ascending structure holds. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Long
by Ratner
9
Silver Already Showed The Playbook – Bitcoin Might Be Next!When you compare OANDA:XAGUSD and COINBASE:BTCUSD side by side, the similarity in structure is hard to ignore. Silver spent time consolidating, respected its higher lows, absorbed supply, and then expanded aggressively once the structure was confirmed. Bitcoin now appears to be in a very similar phase. At the moment, Bitcoin is trading around $88,000. The previous all-time high sits near $126,000. The most recent major November low was formed around $80,700. Importantly, price has not violated the $74,000 macro support, which remains a key level. This alone keeps the higher-timeframe structure intact and bullish. What we are seeing right now is not panic or distribution. Pullbacks are corrective, momentum remains controlled, and price continues to hold above key demand zones. This behavior suggests compression and energy build-up, not exhaustion. Silver already executed this sequence cleanly. Bitcoin has not broken down yet, and structurally, it is still behaving like an asset preparing for continuation rather than reversal. There is, however, a macro risk that cannot be ignored. Rising geopolitical tensions, especially the risk of escalation between Iran and Israel with potential U.S. involvement, could change market dynamics very quickly. Events like these can override any technical structure. That said, this analysis is based strictly on current price action and confirmed data, not on hypothetical scenarios. As long as price respects structure, the technical bias remains valid. From a long-term perspective, if Bitcoin continues to respect its macro supports and resumes expansion, the broader upside zone I am watching lies between $200,000 and $280,000. This is not a buy or sell signal. This is a structural comparison and a technical roadmap. The market often looks uncertain right before the next major leg begins. The real question is simple: Does Bitcoin follow Silver’s playbook, or does macro risk step in first? Let me know your view below.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
14
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis: Gold Pullback After Strong Rally (READ)Today we are posting a new Gold analysis. After our last analysis, gold rallied strongly from $4337 to $4550, delivering more than 2100 pips of profit. After printing a new ATH at $4550, price faced strong selling pressure and has dropped to around $4461 so far. The downside momentum is heavy, and my first bearish target is $4430. This level is very important. If price finds support there, we could see gold push higher again and move back toward levels above $4500.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XAUNOW
22
Gold Drops More Than 200 USDAt the close of trading on December 29, gold plunged 201 USD to 4,331 USD. In the following session on December 30, prices edged slightly higher to around 4,350 USD. The precious metal had set a new peak late last week at 4,548 USD, but the rally was quickly reversed. This move is largely attributed to aggressive profit-taking and year-end liquidation by short-term futures traders. So far, although gold has shown some short-term volatility on the chart, the magnitude remains manageable. However, strong selling pressure may persist today and tomorrow, potentially leading to more significant price swings—especially if the current price channel is decisively broken. If gold rebounds sharply in the coming days, today’s low could become the latest reaction low within the broader uptrend. In other words, price action over the next two sessions will be critical in determining gold’s direction in the weeks ahead. From a technical standpoint, the next upside objective for February gold futures bulls is a break above the strong resistance at the record high of 4,548 USD. On the downside, bears are aiming to push prices below the key technical support at 4,200 USD. What’s your view on where XAUUSD is heading next? Share your thoughts in the comments.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trade_and_Chill-
8
Lingrid | USDCHF Potential Continuation of Current TrendFX:USDCHF remains capped below a well-defined descending trendline, with price printing lower highs and failing to regain the former range support near 0.7900. The recent push higher looks corrective in nature, as momentum continues to fade each time price tests the trendline from below. If price stalls again inside this supply zone, bearish pressure may resume toward the 0.7862 support area, where prior demand and the lower boundary align. Until buyers reclaim the trendline with strength, downside continuation remains the preferred path. ➡️ Primary scenario: rejection near 0.7900 → move toward 0.7862 ⚠️ Risk scenario: firm acceptance above the trendline invalidates the sell setup and shifts bias neutral If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Short
by Lingrid
6
Risk Management: The Art of Long-Term Survival Risk Management Imagine a hero standing at a crossroads with three paths. If he takes the road to the right, he will face a serious challenge with a difficulty level of 100. At the end of this path, however, he will be rewarded with five gold bars. The middle road leads to ten gold bars, but the hero will encounter not one, but three challenges along the way. Each of them is no less difficult than the one on the right-hand road. Taken together, their total difficulty amounts to 300. The left road involves a less demanding challenge with a difficulty of 60, but the reward is modest — only one gold bar. Which path would you choose if you were in the hero’s place? Now suppose the hero chose a balanced level of risk, but along the way he was bitten by a snake and never even reached the challenge. This is exactly what risk-taking in financial markets looks like. In the real world, risk is first and foremost the probability of loss. Risk is an inevitable consequence of the fact that the future is unknown. At any given moment, there are far more possible outcomes than those that ultimately materialize. It is precisely this gap — between the range of potential outcomes and the single realized result — that gives rise to risk. The future cannot be viewed as a predetermined or predictable script; it is a spectrum of possibilities that includes both favorable and unfavorable outcomes. An investor may estimate the range of the most likely scenarios and base their expectations of the future on them. However, even the most probable event offers no guarantee that it will actually occur. Risk comes in many forms, and the probability of loss is only one of them. Another important type is the risk of missed opportunities — the risk of taking too little risk. Staying on the sidelines can cause an investor to miss a recovery or a growth phase and ultimately drop out of the investment process altogether. Particularly destructive is the risk of selling at the bottom. In this case, the investor not only locks in losses but also forfeits the chance to participate in the subsequent recovery, which often leads to a permanent exit from the market. There are also risks associated with rare but catastrophic events. These risks may remain hidden for a long time, creating the illusion that a strategy is safe — until they suddenly materialize with severe consequences, as in the example of the hero and the snake. Risk has a contradictory and deceptive nature. It depends not only on the asset or the market itself, but also on the behavior of market participants. When people feel safe and confident, they tend to act less cautiously, and actual risk increases. Conversely, when risk is recognized and perceived as high, behavior becomes more restrained, and risk may decrease. Paradoxically, rising prices often increase risk, while falling prices can make an asset safer — even though most people intuitively perceive the opposite. Risk management is not a one-time action or a reaction to a crisis; it is a continuous process. Since it is impossible to know in advance when adverse events will occur, risk control must be present at all times, not only during periods of obvious threat. The essence of a sound approach is not the complete avoidance of risk, but its conscious acceptance, analysis, and limitation. An investor takes on risks they understand, can diversify, and are adequately compensated for. Ultimately, the investor’s task is to build an asymmetric outcome profile: to participate in upside when events unfold favorably, and to lose less when negative scenarios materialize. Such asymmetry is a hallmark of true skill and reflects a deep understanding of probability distributions, hidden risks, and acceptable loss limits. How to Form Your Own Risk Assessment in a Specific Situation To address this question, it is useful to turn to the work of Ed Seykota. One of his core ideas can be summarized as follows: Risk is not the size of a potential loss in itself, but the probability of that loss occurring given the current market structure. An important implication follows from this: The profit-to-loss ratio (risk/reward) is not an independent criterion of trade quality. The risk of a specific trade is determined by two key factors: the market environment, the distribution of profits and losses. However, the decisive element is not the absolute size of the potential profit, but the probability of achieving it, as defined by the market context Consider a situation where the potential profit is relatively small compared to the possible loss. From a formal risk/reward perspective, such a trade appears unattractive. But if the market conditions suggest that the probability of a positive outcome is high — for example, around 90% — the risk no longer appears unreasonable. In this case, the trade is justified not by the magnitude of the payoff, but by the stability of the probabilistic edge. An individual trade, taken in isolation, is meaningless. What matters is how similar situations play out over a large sample size. Even with a very high probability of success, risk becomes unjustified if: a negative scenario is capable of destroying a significant portion of the capital; or a single rare loss outweighs the cumulative result of many successful trades. This is why, within any robust system, probability and loss control must always go hand in hand. High probability without loss limitation is not trading — it is gambling. Unjustified Risk Suppose a trader manages to earn 5% on their account over the course of a month , while the benchmark — for example, the Nasdaq — delivers a return of 8% over the same period. What does this imply? To answer this, we turn to the concept of alpha . Alpha is a metric that measures how much a strategy’s or trader’s performance deviates from the benchmark return, after accounting for the level of market risk taken. If a trader engages in active intraday trading — assuming operational, market, behavioral, and tail risks — yet achieves a return lower than that of the benchmark, this indicates that risk was taken without adequate compensation . The critical issue is not the mere presence of risk, but the relationship between risk and outcome. By its nature, intraday trading involves high engagement, frequent decision-making, exposure to market noise, commissions, slippage, and psychological pressure. All of these factors increase the strategy’s total risk profile. If, despite this, the final result underperforms a passive benchmark, alpha becomes negative. This means that each unit of risk taken was not only unrewarded, but actually worsened the overall financial outcome. In such a case, alpha does more than simply indicate “underperformance relative to the market.” It highlights the inefficiency of the risk taken . The trader is effectively performing a more complex and uncertain task while achieving a result that could have been matched — or exceeded — through passive exposure, without active trading and its associated risks. This is precisely what constitutes unjustified risk: risk that does not increase expected returns and does not improve the distribution of outcomes. Thus, intraday trading with returns below the benchmark is an example of risk-taking without economic rationale. Alpha here serves not as a goal, but as a diagnostic tool. If alpha is negative, it indicates that the trading risk is not merely unjustified — it is value-destructive relative to a passive alternative. Integration into Trading 1. Market Context Comes Before the Trade In real trading, the first object of analysis is not the entry, not the stop, and not the take-profit — it is the state of the market itself. The key question you must answer is: Is there a recurring market situation here that historically shifts the probability in my favor? If the situation is not repeatable and lacks a clear internal logic, the trade is not considered at all — regardless of how attractive the risk/reward ratio may look. 2. Probability Matters More Than Potential Profit Once the situation has been identified, the focus shifts not to profit, but to the probability of the scenario playing out. In practical terms, this means: You must understand why the market is more likely to continue the move rather than reverse. The reason for entry should explain why continuation is more probable, based on the logic of market participants’ behavior — not merely be the result of a formal signal. Even if the potential profit is relatively small, a trade may still be justified if: The probability of success is consistently above random; The situation is reproducible over a large sample size. 3. Loss Is Defined in Advance — and Rigidly A loss is not something to “figure out along the way.” It is defined before entering the trade and is not revised in the hope that the market will “come back.” The core integration rule is simple: No single loss should be capable of damaging the integrity of the system This implies: Strictly limited risk per trade; No scenarios in which one unfavorable outcome wipes out the results of many successful trades. 4. Serial Thinking Instead of Evaluating Individual Trades True integration happens at the mental level. You stop evaluating trades in terms of “profit or loss.” Each trade is viewed as: One element within a series; One roll of the dice with a known probability bias. In practice, this leads to: No emotional reaction to a single loss; No euphoria from a single winning trade. 5. Trade Selection Instead of Increased Activity Integrating this approach almost always reduces the number of trades. You enter the market only when: The market provides a readable context; The scenario has a statistical edge; The risk is clearly defined in advance. If the market does not offer these conditions, you do not “look for trades” — you wait. 6. Evaluating Results by Process, Not by Money In real trading, success is not measured by daily PnL, but by: Adherence to the logic of situation selection; Discipline in loss limitation; Consistency of execution. A losing day can be a perfect day if all decisions were made within the framework of the system. Risk Management Framework in Investing Risk should be distributed not only across trading instruments, but also across sources of returns. A portfolio composed of assets dependent on a single growth scenario creates an illusion of diversification while remaining structurally fragile. True diversification implies exposure to different sectors, asset classes, and underlying economic processes. An important element of risk management is time diversification. Entering positions in stages reduces the risk of poor timing and mitigates the impact of short-term market fluctuations. Investing the full amount at a single price point turns an investment into a timing bet rather than a conviction in the underlying idea. Liquidity risk must also be taken into account. An asset that cannot be sold without a significant discount carries hidden danger. Liquidity matters not during calm periods, but during times of stress, when exiting a position may become critically important. Diversification also means being willing to keep part of the capital out of the market. Holding free liquidity reduces decision-making pressure and allows the investor to respond to opportunities that arise during periods of panic. Full capital deployment increases the risk of forced actions. Risk reduction becomes necessary when uncertainty rises. Increasing correlations between assets, changes in macroeconomic conditions, growing leverage, or excessive market optimism are signals to reassess portfolio structure. In such periods, capital preservation takes precedence over returns. An increase in investment risk is acceptable only when there is a sufficient margin of safety. Expanding exposure to higher-risk assets is justified when capital is growing, the investment horizon is long, and acceptable losses are clearly defined. An investor does not increase risk in an attempt to “catch up with the market.” Portfolio structure should reflect not only the investor’s expectations, but also their ability to withstand unfavorable periods. There is no universal allocation; however, practical guidelines help keep risk within manageable limits. Portfolio Structure Guidelines Low-risk allocation serves as the foundation and stabilizer of the portfolio. Typically, it represents 50–70% of total capital . This segment includes highly liquid assets with relatively predictable behavior. Its purpose is not to maximize returns, but to preserve capital and reduce overall portfolio volatility. Moderate-risk allocation usually accounts for 20–40% of the portfolio. These are assets with growth potential but without critical dependence on a single scenario. They generate the core long-term returns and absorb part of the market’s fluctuations. High-risk allocation is limited to 5–15% of capital. This segment includes assets with high volatility, asymmetric payoff potential, and an elevated probability of deep drawdowns. Losses in this zone must never threaten the integrity of the entire portfolio. If an asset can go to zero, its position size must be small enough for that outcome to be non-critical. Rebalancing and Capital Discipline Rebalancing is a mandatory component of risk management. As high-risk assets appreciate, their weight increases automatically, and part of the gains should be reallocated toward more stable segments. During market declines, the portfolio structure is reviewed based on changing conditions rather than emotional reactions. Increasing exposure to high-risk assets is appropriate only when capital is growing, the investment horizon is long, and potential losses are clearly understood. Reducing exposure becomes necessary during periods of heightened uncertainty, macroeconomic shifts, or declining personal risk tolerance. A portion of the portfolio should be held in cash. Cash is not inactivity or a missed opportunity — it is an asset that serves both defensive and strategic functions. Typically, cash represents 10–30% of the portfolio , depending on market conditions and uncertainty. During stable growth phases, it may sit near the lower end of this range. In periods of elevated volatility, uncertainty, or after prolonged market rallies, increasing the cash allocation becomes prudent. A cash position reduces overall portfolio risk and alleviates psychological pressure. Free liquidity allows decisions to be made calmly, without the need to sell assets under unfavorable conditions. The key principle lies not in finding the perfect percentage, but in maintaining the chosen structure . Discipline in risk allocation is more important than precision in initial calculations. A Risk Management Framework in Trading Risk management in trading does not begin with entering a trade; it begins with accepting the fact that any trade can end in a loss. A trader who is not internally aligned with this reality will inevitably violate their own rules. Accepting losses as a legitimate outcome is a fundamental condition for survival in the market. Position sizing is more important than the entry point. Even a strong idea loses its value if its size is disproportionate to potential adverse scenarios. A trader is not required to predict direction perfectly, but they are obligated to control the consequences of being wrong. Every trade must be “paid for” in advance. The potential loss must be known and psychologically accepted before entry. For one trader, an acceptable risk may be one percent of capital; for another, five percent. These figures are not universal truths — they reflect individual tolerance for uncertainty, trading style, and time horizon. What matters is not the number itself, but strict adherence to it. For a beginner trader, an acceptable risk per trade is typically a loss of no more than one to two percent of the account. This level of risk allows the trader to endure a series of losing trades without causing critical damage to capital and, just as importantly, to psychological stability. Under these conditions, the risk-to-reward ratio should be no less than 1:2 and, in more favorable setups, should approach 1:3. This means that the potential profit of a trade should be at least twice, and preferably three times, greater than the potential loss. With such an approach, a trader maintains a positive mathematical expectancy even when a portion of trades ends in losses. No single trade is decisive. The market is a sequence of attempts, not a single trial. Focusing on the outcome of an individual trade undermines discipline and distorts risk perception. Refusing to exit is also a decision — and it carries risk. Holding a losing position in the hope of a reversal is not a neutral action; it is an active choice to increase uncertainty. Periods of growth require no less caution than periods of decline. Confidence reinforced by a streak of successful trades often becomes the source of the largest losses. Growth in capital is a reason to reduce risk, not to increase it. The best kind of risk is one that allows for error. A strategy that leaves no room for mistakes is doomed in the long run. Resilience matters more than precision. The goal of risk management is not to eliminate losses, but to preserve the ability to continue trading. A trader wins not when losses are avoided, but when losses do not deprive them of the ability to take the next step. This post is based on our own experiences and research we've gathered from books and various platforms. Enjoy!
Education
by LonesomeTheBlue
13
Who is smart money and benefit from knowing it.When I first started trading, I thought the market moved because there were more buyers or sellers. Charts looked random, price moved fast, and it felt like some invisible hand was playing games. Later I discovered something that changed the way I see the entire Forex market: the real liquidity isn’t controlled by retail or big players. I mean, yeah big players definitely can influence the price, and they have been manipulating markets many times and have been fined for it 100 times. But then why would they trade against each other? If they can trade through one powerful entity against us? Sounds weird, and you might be thinking, how would they do it? Here is the answer - it’s all coordinated through CLS, the Continuous Linked Settlement system. This company executes more than 80% of global FX volume. 📌 Latest total (global): ~$9.6 trillion per day (average daily turnover, April 2025) CLS trades 70% of this With such a volume, it’s worth for every FX trader to understand who this operator is and how they behave. Here are just a few banks and central banks they trade for. These are the participants who actually move price. When they transact, candles are born. And it’s actually great that it works this way, because it gives the markets structure. Imagine if all these institutions were trading against each other at different times. 📌 CLS is basically the settlement backbone for the biggest players on the planet. It handles huge volumes of currency transactions every single day. And when I say huge, I mean numbers that make our trading accounts look like pocket money. 📌 CLS Time schedule CLS doesn’t follow our usual “market hours.” It runs a continuous settlement cycle from late evening to early morning based on UTC. Some of the most important liquidity transfers, netting, and rebalancing flows happen during these windows. Once I understood that, a lot of the strange behavior I used to see around midnight and early London sessions finally made sense. Price wasn’t random. It was clearing, balancing, settling positions between giants during the instruction and payment matching - Asia session. 📌 Let CLS give you signal for 2 Day Traders: Continuation or Reversal 🧪 London Continuation Bearish setup • Narrative: Asia did the manipulation → London does the continuation. • Asia session already made a manipulation into a key level • Price displaced away from that level • CIOD / OB on M15 or H1 before London open • H1: Asia runs above the stops above H1 high into a key level • It gets rejected and followed by an order block and displacement • At London open, price retraces into M15 premium key level and continues in the same direction ❌ Invalidation: the manipulation high/low from Asia session 🧪 London Continuation Bullish setup • Narrative: Asia did the manipulation → London does the continuation. • Asia session already made a manipulation into a key level • Price displaced away from that level • CIOD / OB on M15 or H1 before London open • H1: Asia runs below the stops above H1 high into a key level • It gets rejected and followed by an order block and displacement • At London open, price retraces into M15 discount key level and continues in the same direction ❌ Invalidation: the manipulation high/low from Asia session 🧪 London Reversal Bearish setup • Narrative: London performs the manipulation → price reverses. • Asia session consolidates near a higher timeframe key level • London open initiates the manipulation into the key level • Price rejects at the key level and creates an M15 order block • H1: Asia consolidates below key level • London opens, price runs Asia high into that key level • M15 breaks down → Change in order flow → clean short setup • Target: higher timeframe draw on liquidity (e.g., previous day low) ❌ Invalidation: the London session high (manipulation point) 🧪 London Reversal Bullish setup • Narrative: London performs the manipulation → price reverses. • Asia session consolidates near a higher timeframe key level • London open initiates the manipulation into the key level • Price rejects at the key level and creates an M15 order block • H1: Asia consolidates above the key level • London opens, price runs Asia high into that key level • M15 breaks up → Change in order flow → clean short setup • Target: higher timeframe draw on liquidity (e.g., previous day low) ❌ Invalidation: the London session low (manipulation point) 📌 How Manipulation Appears on the Chart After years of watching these flows, I started to notice a repeating pattern. When institutions push the market to rebalance their exposure, they often leave behind a signature on the chart. I call these CLS candles / ranges because if such a move happened, we can be sure the CLS operation, which controls a significant part of the volume, is involved. • Large real body with minimal wicks • Sudden expansion in range compared to recent candles • Strong directional close with no hesitation • Appears during key liquidity or session transitions • Breaks structure without gradual buildup • Leaves an obvious imbalance or inefficiency behind • Often follows a liquidity sweep of highs or lows • Price rarely pauses inside the candle itself • Indicates institutional execution, not retail participation 📌When I started to see this, I knew there was a new opportunity I didn’t see before, but I didn’t know how to trade it yet. It took me almost 2 years to rebuild myself around this. 📌When I stopped treating these candles as “random volatility” and instead viewed them as institutional footprints, everything shifted. These candles often form right after liquidity is taken above old highs or below old lows. It’s almost like the market sweeps the table clean before the real move starts. And when the big body candle finishes, price tends to return later to fill the gaps left behind, or 50% of such a huge candle. Same like we have Asia and London outcome based on the CLS instructions and input matching time. Same we can use on HTF. So when I get such a candle, I drop to the lower timeframe and look for the entry after the manipulation of this candle. And it all makes sense also with the market mentality of less informed traders. Why? FOMO. And that is the whole logic of the strategy. I trade that large CLS candle creation in the trend, which gives me the ability to buy lows in the uptrend and sell highs in the downtrend. 📍 Downtrend - Trade stop hunts above the CLS range 📍 Uptrend - Trade stop hunts below the CLS range If such a CLS candle occurs, people often want to enter the next candle and hope for continuation of the big move, but price mostly reverses to rebalance that huge imbalance which CLS created, and that is model 1, and model 2 is a piece of cake. 📍 Bullish CLS continuation setups Model 1 - Entry after manipulation - 50% target Model 2 - Entry on pullback on level between 61.8 - 80% 📍 Bearish CLS Continuation setups Model 1 - Entry after manipulation - 50% target Model 2 - Entry on pullback on level between 61.8 - 80% pullback. If you’ve ever felt like the market suddenly explodes, only to calmly drift back to the same zone hours later, you’re probably looking at the same thing I saw years ago. Once you start connecting these moments with global settlement flows, the chart begins to make sense in a way it didn’t before, and hence it doesn’t make sense to draw something like below to the charts. I mean, yes, sometimes these patterns can work. But it’s not the real reason why the market moved. No, it didn’t move because CLS saw cup and handle or triple top. Open your eyes and look for the big candles — that is where CLS big smart money was trading. I promised myself I’d become the person I once needed the most as a beginner. Below are links to a powerful lessons I shared on Tradingview. Hope it can help you avoid years of trial and error I went thru. 📊 Sharpen your trading Strategy ⚙️ 100% Mechanical System - Complete Strategy 🔁 Daily Bias – Continuation 🔄 Daily Bias – Reversal 🧱 Key Level – Order Block 📉 How to Buy Lows and Sell Highs 🎯 Dealing Range – Enter on pullbacks 💧 Liquidity – Basics to understand 🕒 Timeframe Alignments 🚫 Market Narratives – Avoid traps 🐢 Turtle Soup Master – High reward method 🧘 How to stop overcomplicating trading 🕰️ Day Trading Cheat Code – Sessions 🇬🇧 London Session Trading 🔍 SMT Divergence – Secret Smart Money signal 📐 Standard Deviations – Predict future targets 🎣 Stop Hunt Trading 💧 Liquidity Sweep Mastery 🔪 Asia Session Setups 🧠 Level Up your Mindset 🛕 Monk Mode – Transition from 9–5 to full-time trading ⚠️ Trading Enemies – Habits that destroy success 🔄 Trader’s Routine – Build discipline daily 💪 Get Funded - $20 000 Monthly Plan 🧪 Winning Trading Plan 🛡️ Risk Management 🏦 Risk Management for Prop Trading 📏 Risk in % or Fixed Position Size 🔐 Risk Per Trade – Keep consistency Adapt useful, Reject useless and add what is specifically yours. David Perk Have a great start in to 2026
Education
by David_Perk
36
BTCUSDT Above Support - $88,900 Resistance in PlayHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on BTCUSDT (1H) based on the current chart structure. BTCUSDT is trading within a broader ascending channel, confirming an overall bullish structure despite recent volatility. After a sharp drop earlier on the chart, price formed a clear base and started to grow, establishing higher lows along the channel’s support line. This recovery phase shows that buyers remain active and are defending key levels. Price then moved into a consolidation area between a clearly defined Buyer Zone (support) and Seller Zone (resistance), creating a range-like environment inside the channel. Multiple breakouts and false moves around the Seller Zone highlight strong supply pressure in this area, while repeated defenses of the Buyer Zone confirm solid demand. The dashed midline reflects interim structure guiding price action within the channel. Currently, BTC is holding above the Support Level around the Buyer Zone (~87,300), while facing overhead Resistance near the Seller Zone (~88,900). The projected move suggests a potential bounce from support toward resistance, with TP1 aligned near the upper resistance area inside the channel. My scenario: as long as BTCUSDT holds above the Buyer Zone and the ascending support line, the bias remains bullish, with a move toward the resistance and TP1 as the primary objective. A strong rejection from resistance could lead to further consolidation. However, a clean breakdown below support would invalidate the bullish setup and signal a deeper pullback. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
10