XPDUSD Monumental buy at the bottom of the 6-year Cycle.Palladium (XPDUSD) is in the process of forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern as it approaches its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been unbroken as a Resistance since the week of October 10 2022. Once the 1W MA50 breaks, we will have a confirmed buy signal, whose first emergence was when the 1W RSI formed Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence.
We can see that this bottom is on a 6-year Cycle as the previous ones (January 11 2026 and December 01 2008) also took place on a 1W RSI Bullish Divergence forming an IH&S pattern. We expect Palladium to reach at least the 'Russia-Ukraine war peak' at 3450 by late 2025 the earliest or late 2027 the latest.
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Palladium
Palladium to find buyers at current dip?Palladium - 24h expiry
Selling was posted yesterday but levels close to bespoke support of 1000 have found buyers.
1000.2 has been pivotal.
We look to buy dips.
Daily signals are mildly bullish.
The bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart the positive for sentiment.
We look to Buy at 1005.5 (stop at 985.5)
Our profit targets will be 1055.5 and 1065.5
Resistance: 1032.1 / 1051.4 / 1060.0
Support: 1015.0 / 1000.2 / 984.5
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
XPDUSD Sell opportunity near the 1D MA200.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the October 04 2022 High and the recent Feb 13 2024 Low rally is approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This is where the last Lower High of the Channel Down was priced (Dec 22 2023), thus a sell opportunity is being presented. On top of that, the 1D RSI just hit the 70.00 overbought barrier.
As a result, we turn bearish on Palladium, targeting just above the Support 1 level at 865.00. We will turn bullish only if the price breaks above Resistance 1 and then pulls back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), targeting 1630 (just below Resistance 2).
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Sibanye Stillwater and Palladium buy entriesPalladium and SBSW are approaching demand areas and we can expect a reversal to the upside with SBSW offering 4X trade from 5 to 20. And similar with PALL. NATGAS are also approaching demand but no confirmation is seen yet.
#stockstobuy #stockstobuynow #palladium #forextrading #natgas
Palladium to find buyers at market?Palladium - 24h expiry
Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 973.
Our short term bias remains positive.
We look for gains to be extended today.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
With signals for sentiment at oversold extremes, the dip could not be extended.
We look to Buy at 973.5 (stop at 953.5)
Our profit targets will be 1023.5 and 1033.5
Resistance: 988.2 / 1000.0 / 1020.0
Support: 980.0 / 965.0 / 950.0
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Palladium: Time for the Turnaround! 🔄Palladium is heading a little further downwards: the price is now drilling deeper and deeper into our turquoise Target Zone (coordinates: $1092 - $997). We expect that the low of wave B in turquoise will be deposited within this price range and that the trend reversal to the north will then succeed, which should subsequently bring us the price increases in wave C in turquoise. All technical conditions have now been met for this low; however, we allow the price to move a little lower again within our Zone. To hedge or minimize the risk of long trades, a stop 1% below the lower edge of the Zone can be placed. However, if the primarily expected bullish trend reversal succeeds, the metal should soon break above the resistance at $1257 and thus gain fresh upward momentum.
XPDUSD on the verge of a long-term bullish break-out.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the October 04 2022 High. Today though, the price broke, marginally so far, above it for the first time after a strong post-Fed 1D candle. This rise was initiated on a Lower Lows trend-line but on an underlying Bullish Divergence as the 1D RSI was during the same period on Higher Lows.
This was the first signal of a potential long-term bullish break-out and a break (and 1D candle closing) above both the Channel Down and more importantly the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (which is where the April 18 2023 High was rejected), will be the confirmation.
If it happens (closing 1D candle above it), then we will buy and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 1255.00, which is slightly below Resistance 1 (1291.00). A further closing above Resistance 1, will be new break-out buy entry, with which we will target slightly below Resistance 2 at 1625.00.
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Gold - Fade a The Short Squeeze RallyThe marketing team behind gold and silver are always telling dumb and dead money that they should "hedge" against a "collapsing US Petrodollar" during times of global instability by being long on metals.
The trade rarely works out. Gold and silver not only routinely follow the equities markets straight to Hell, but tend to get dumped during the start of new index impulse swings.
This rally while the SPX gave up its 5% rally is actually a significant anomaly.
But if the propaganda never, ever worked out, the propaganda would stop working and the marketing team would be out of a job.
And that more or less sums up a 10% monthly rally on gold that's killed short sellers who wanted to comfortably ride a trend down.
You can see on the monthly that this price action is just more ranging, more wick plays, and there's a notable unbalanced gap under $1,800.
It's really important to keep a cool head as a goldbug, especially under the condition where the establishment media is reporting that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party is long several hundred tonnes worth of gold.
The CCP is collapsing and everything that is going on in the world has to do with the various members of the CCP around the world, who are not of the Chinese race, scrambling to bury their skeletons while also trying to ensure they can take control of the country when the regime falls.
And because of that, there's no reason to believe that a CCP that is desperately selling US Treasuries (see: Santiago Capital) for USD is going to be allowed to go plussy plus greeny green on its deeply deep goldy gold position.
What hangs over the head of everyone on this planet is the Party's 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million students and Disciples, a sin committed by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999, that has even had the audacity to commit the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting.
Keep your distance from and wash your hands from anything related to the CCP, including the western factions that have become a particle of the Party swearing Marxist vows in Shanghai.
So, here's the trade.
Doesn't matter if gold takes $2,015. It's not the right overall timing for a new rally to $2,200.
Instead, either go short, or wait for gold to trade under $1,800 again.
There's no reason to believe gold is a new bull market until longs have been ruthlessly violated. There's no reason to believe metals are going to rally as a hedge during an international war or a major equity sell off, or a major equity rally lol.
#XPDUSD Palladium reaching long-term accumulation levelsPalladium is starting to pique my interest. After retreating from as high as $3000 at the peak in April 21' - the commodity is now down 65% and reaching interesting long term levels. Firstly the current level at approximately $1025 is where palladium peaked as far as back in January 01' - almost 22 years ago. If this becomes a point of polarity, the previous top(resistance) should start to morph into support. This level was also tested in late December 2017 after not having made new highs for 16 years! To think that the commodity is basically flat from the highest point some 22 years ago is quite something...
What makes this level even more interesting to me is that we have approached the 200 month moving average (green moving average on the chart). Interestingly, this is where the palladium price bottomed back in Late 2016 before rallying almost 500% to reach the Peak of $3000 in April 21'. Also, if you look at the RSI and MACD indicators at the bottom of my chart, you will see just how oversold the commodity is. To put it into perspective, the only time we were more oversold going back to 1997 (which is as far as i can go), was April 2003 where we traded as low as $150...
I would start accumulating here, with scope to add down at $850 should it get there, which is where we find the uptrend connecting the 2008 and 2016 lows. I will be surprised if we get that far, but I will start accumulating from current levels for a move higher. We are so stretched in price here that I do expect some mean reversion to take place in the weeks and months ahead. We are already starting to see mines having to close shafts which is telling you that PGM prices at these levels are not sustainable and something has to give sooner or later...
XPDUSD Price rebounding at the bottom of the Channel Down.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since late June and on Monday the price hit its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line). As the 1D RSI touched the 30.00 oversold barrier on a Lower Lows formation that has previously formed short-term bottoms for Palladium, we expect a rebound towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The lowest rebound sequence within this period has been +9.00% so a 1185 target perfectly fit those criteria as well as a potential contact with the 1D MA50.
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Gold Set To Take On $2000 Amidst The Middle East CrisesThe global markets often react to geopolitical events, and the rising Middle East conflict is a prime example, drawing investors' attention worldwide.
This tension has amplified the demand for gold, a traditionally secure investment. The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict underscores gold's safe-haven status.
Gold prices have surged by 9% since October 6th. Looking back to August 2020, prices have ranged between $1614 and $2075.
Such consolidations hint at a significant impending move so a breakout might be on the horizon.
Recently, gold approached the crucial $2000 mark, a level that price last traded above in May 2023. Surpassing this could lead to price challenging its all-time high of $2081.
With the Middle East conflict persisting, gold's appeal as a protective investment might push its prices to new records heights, even as the financial landscape remains unpredictable.
Palladium Trade Plan based on Option SentimentOption activity in palladium is quite rare. On October 19 the verical spread with targets of $1150-1200 was passed. Despite the insignificant volume, it stands out sharply against the background of previous observations. The logic of this spread is the correction to the area of the previous support.
Precious Metals Schematics: A look into the Macro with FibonacciI have Listed Silver, Copper, Platinum, Palladium, Aluminum, and Gold into one chart. These are 6 of the top Metals all in Heikin Ashi Candle form.
They all have their own complex Fibonacci Clusters within each one. It may look confusing at first. But understand that one set of lines are horizontal extensions and another set are angled extensions within each one.
Palladium seems like a very good opportunity to me.Hello everyone,
How Rare is Palladium?
Palladium is considered a relatively rare precious metal. It is rarer than well-known precious metals like gold and silver and it seems like a very interesting opportunity at the moment to me.
There is lot of bullish signs I can see.
First of all It seems like it is in nice falling wedge pattern and finishing A-B-C-D-E correction. Very solid bullish divergence is forming on the Weekly time frame and it seems like it broke the red resistence line and its just testing it. Reversal should start soon for this precious metal
I see 50-400% Gains from here.
There is very solid setup for mid to long term trade as well as a long term investment.
If you Zoom out to the Monthly
Hope this helps you.
Cheers
A precious metal is a naturally occurring metallic element with high economic and cultural value due to its rarity, luster, and various industrial and ornamental applications. Palladium is a precious metal with unique properties and commercial importance akin to its renowned counterparts like gold, silver, and platinum.
What is Palladium?
Palladium is a silvery-white transition metal belonging to the periodic table’s platinum group of elements. William Hyde Wollaston discovered palladium in 1803 and named it after the asteroid Pallas, which was discovered around the same time. Palladium is known for its distinct luster, durability, and high resistance to corrosion, making it a valuable material in various industrial and technological applications. It has also become popular in recent years to invest in palladium.
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Lagger that refuses to fall and dreams about greatnessThe world's largest producer of nickel and palladium has had rather lackluster performance in 2023 advancing half as the general Russian Index. And still I cannot get over his accurate price structure that hints that better days are potentially ahead.
I want the price to start forming the right side and later the handle of a cup, and break out above important Sep'22 and Sep'23 high - 17240 area. If price will not be able to hold Sep'23 15730 low, I would want the area above 15250 and 200D line to act as support. Bellow this levels the analysis is to be considered wrong and invalid.
Trading thesis : cow-boy type longs (higher failure risk) may be considered above 16430 area with 3 and 5% stop levels.
XPDUSD: Engage above or below this Channel. Neutral within.Palladium has been trading relatively sideways as its inside a low slope Channel Down pattern since June 27th. There is no surprise that the 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 54.874, MACD = -7.340, ADX = 26.821). Consequently you can scalp the Channel's range on the short-term on trade the direction of the breakout on the longer one.
If the price delivers a 1D candle closing over the top of the Channel Down (and most likely the 1D MA100), buy and target the 1D MA200 (TP = 1,400). If the price delivers a 1D candle closing under the bottom of the Channel Down, sell and target the end of a -26% decline (TP = 985.00).
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Silver - A 50% Long Setup. Trade Only. No HODL.In a post on Silver from June, I analyse that a run to $33 is on deck:
Silver - 33 Moons And An Options Opportunity
In the time that has passed, we've had two ~10% bounces that have been sold off.
To me, this is a peculiar pattern for a trendline play that leads to new lows in the immediate term future, and represents confirmation that $33 is on deck.
However, I'm also expecting a very bearish September across all markets, which I outline in a recent call on Nasdaq:
Nasdaq Futures - Are You Prepared For Red September?
Because I believe that we'll have a giant rally that takes out the tops of a lot of things heading into the end of 2023, and 2024 will mark the beginning of the real economic calamity.
When it comes to silver and gold being bullish in the long term, they should be, but the market manipulators will keep price supressed for a few reasons.
The first is that a renaissance in precious metals, or even a bubble in precious metals, will amount to promoting bullion, coins, bills, and even ore. These things are mankind's traditions, and are at odds with the current International Rules Based Order (IRBO) pseudo-Chinese Communist Party culture that more or less wants to install something like a cross between Shanghai's Zero-COVID social credit system and the Taliban.
The second is that China, which is still governed by the CCP and Xi Jinping, has bought an incredible amount of gold in recent times, if reports are true and not fabricated at least.
And so a short raid on precious metals would amount to a de facto economic sanction against China, which the IRBO claims to be de-risking against.
Moreover, if something should happen to the Party, whether that be natural disaster, a greater pandemic, Xi performing a Gorbachev-style coup against the Party overnight, or Heaven finally dealing with the CCP's 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners, because China holds so much gold, there will be open selling into the market.
Prices will crash because the very wealthiest families on this planet are safeguards of tradition and will take advantage of the situation to purchase back that physical bullion and jewellery at record low prices amid the chaos.
"Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if it's your own," they say.
So here's the current call on silver.
The fake double top below the early May gap at $25.5~ is definitely manipulation.
It's traded back too far and hasn't shown any bullishness to give us confidence that we're going to go from $23 to $26 or $27 as a breaker pattern.
Because "resistance" has been printed, many very large players and retail traders who are short will position their stop losses over $26 and $27.
This becomes a target.
And in the meantime the goldbug moonboys have long stops under $22 and $21, which just so happens to be an untested gap.
So the trade here is to either look at a short on a retrace to $24 with a target of $21~, or just wait for $21 with a target of $33 by year end.
And then sell it all. Sell your spot. Sell your bullion, if you can't be hedged short.
Silver will eventually truly appreciate, and in a significant way, but it's not very likely to manifest before the new future unfolds.
And so in 2024, we may really see numbers sub $15 again. Ergo, because metals are, in reality, ranging and not trending, it's not a market for "buy and hold" to be an intelligent strategy.
Good luck.