Bullish, but not as strong as before.Hey guys, PIPPINUSDT just printed an absolute monster move, surging 60.50% in the last 24 hours from a low of $0.2200 to a high of $0.3966 before settling around $0.3571. This kind of explosive price action demands careful analysis because while the gains look incredible, the real question is whether we're looking at sustainable momentum or a classic pump setup ready to dump on latecomers.
Let's start with the trend structure, which is honestly pretty clean for such a volatile move. Price is holding above all three major exponential moving averages: EMA20 at $0.3249, EMA50 at $0.2758, and EMA200 at $0.2066. This creates what we call a bullish EMA stack, where faster averages sit above slower ones, and price maintains position above all of them. It's textbook trending behavior and exactly what you want to see if you're positioned long or looking for continuation entries.
The ADX is reading 57.2, which confirms we're in a strong trending environment rather than choppy consolidation. When ADX pushes above 50, it's telling you there's genuine directional conviction in the market, not just noise. Right now that direction is clearly bullish, supported by the internal market state showing a 5-to-1 bull-to-bear stack ratio. The directional confidence sits at 33.6%, which might seem low, but given the mixed signals from MACD and volume, it's actually reasonable - the trend is up, but momentum indicators are flashing some yellow flags.
Speaking of momentum, let's dive into the RSI and MACD situation. RSI at 64.7 is sitting comfortably in neutral territory, which is actually bullish because it means we've got room to run before hitting overbought conditions around 70-75 where profit-taking typically accelerates. We're not seeing extreme readings that would suggest an imminent reversal. However, the MACD is showing a bearish crossover with the MACD line at 0.0272 sitting below the signal line at 0.0308. This divergence often precedes short-term consolidation or pullbacks, especially after parabolic moves like we just witnessed. It's not screaming reversal, but it's definitely suggesting we might need to digest these gains before the next leg higher.
The Bollinger Bands are painting a really clear picture of the current price structure. Upper band sits at $0.3704, middle band (which is basically a 20-period SMA) at $0.3318, and lower band at $0.2932. Price is currently trading above the middle band but well below the upper band after getting rejected from $0.3966. That massive 19.4% upper wick from the session high is significant - it shows heavy supply came in at those elevated levels, and sellers were aggressive enough to push price down substantially. Compare that to the tiny 3.6% lower wick, and you can see buyers are still defending dips with conviction. The battle right now is whether bulls can reclaim that upper Bollinger Band at $0.3704 or if we consolidate/correct toward the middle band support.
Volume analysis is where things get a bit concerning for the immediate bullish case. Current volume sits at $152.9M, which is below the average of $214M. After a 60% rally, you'd ideally want to see sustained or increasing volume to confirm the move has legs. Declining volume after explosive gains often suggests the initial wave of buyers is exhausted, and we need fresh capital to push higher. The MFI (Money Flow Index) at 55.7 is neutral, not showing extreme buying or selling pressure, which keeps both continuation and correction scenarios on the table. We're not seeing the kind of volume capitulation that would signal a top, but we're also not seeing the accumulation that would confirm the next leg up is ready to fire.
From a support and resistance perspective, here are your critical levels to watch. Immediate support sits at the EMA20 around $0.3249, which has been tested and held multiple times during this rally. Below that, you've got the middle Bollinger Band at $0.3318 acting as a secondary support zone. If both of those fail, the EMA50 at $0.2758 becomes your major support, and breaking that would likely invalidate the bullish structure and trigger a deeper correction toward the lower Bollinger Band at $0.2932. On the resistance side, the immediate ceiling is that Bollinger upper band at $0.3704. Reclaiming this level with volume would open the door to retest the session high at $0.3966, which is now a proven supply zone. Breaking above $0.3966 would be incredibly bullish and could trigger FOMO buying toward psychological resistance at $0.4000 and potentially $0.4100+ if momentum really accelerates.
For anyone looking to trade this setup, here's how I'd structure it. Entry zone would be on a pullback to $0.3350-$0.3400, ideally coinciding with a test of the middle Bollinger Band or EMA20. This gives you a better risk-reward than chasing current levels. Stop loss needs to sit below $0.3180, just under the EMA20 with enough breathing room to avoid getting stopped out by normal volatility and wick action. Your target progression should be scaled: TP1 at $0.3750 (retest of Bollinger upper band and psychological resistance), TP2 at $0.3900 (approaching previous high), and TP3 at $0.4100 for the aggressive holders chasing extension moves. That structure gives you roughly 2.5:1 risk-reward on the conservative first target, scaling up to 4:1 if this catches another wave of momentum. Consider taking partial profits at each level and trailing your stop as price advances.
The bull case here is straightforward: strong ADX-confirmed trend, clean EMA alignment, RSI with room to expand, support levels holding firm, and overall market structure favoring continuation. If volume returns above average levels and we reclaim $0.3704 with authority, this setup could easily push toward $0.40-$0.42 as retail FOMO kicks in. The bear case centers on that MACD bearish divergence, declining volume, and the massive supply that showed up at $0.3966. If we break below EMA20 at $0.3249 on increasing volume, it would likely trigger stops and send price down to test EMA50 around $0.2758, potentially even the lower Bollinger Band at $0.2932 if selling accelerates.
Overall confidence on the bullish continuation sits around 67% - we've got more factors supporting upside than downside, but those momentum divergences and volume concerns keep this from being a slam-dunk high-conviction setup. The trend is your friend until it bends, and right now the trend is still intact despite some warning signs. Risk management is crucial here given the volatility and the parabolic nature of the recent move.
How are you playing this move - waiting for a deeper pullback or riding the momentum?
