AAPL: S&P500 RELATIONSHIP / PIVOT / TECHNICALS IN FAVOR OF BEARSDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have included a macro analysis of AAPL & its congruent relationship with the S&P 500 INDEX. AAPL is to be consider one of the major players when it comes to overall US MARKET PERFORMANCE & is the reason why understanding AAPL's price action momentum is so vital.
POINTS:
1. AAPL channel deviation where liquidity usually occurs between SUPPLY & DEMAND = 12.50 POINTS
2. Macro Trend: Downtrend Channel; Micro Trend: Uptrend channel with Bearish Ascending Triangle Formation
3. Macro Trend continues to make lower highs & lower lows after peak from January 2022.
TECHNICALS:
RSI LEVELS on the DAILY time frame have been squeezing into overbought territory for the past 4 months.
MACD LEVEL is in common overbought territory where rejection & downturn is indicative.
BULLISH POINT OF CONTROL: 167.50 POINT must be broken to the upside in order to invalidate BEARISH SETUP.
BEARISH POINT OF CONTROL: 155.00 POINT must be broken in order to further validate BEARISH SETUP.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:AAPL
Pointofcontrol
BTC 1h Inverse Cup and Handle breaking last month's VPVR POCInversed Cup and Handle is a very strong bearish reversal pattern. I should have noticed earlier, but I do my own analysis and was looking for something else while this cup was being spilled in my lap.
Why am I posting this late, then?
Well, there is one crucial thing left on this chart. And that is that this pattern has a target price target of 27600, which is below the POC (Point Of Control) on VPVR in the last month, and it is currently retesting it after a breakout.
VPVR POC shows the line of the most significant volume per price level based on the candles shown on the chart at any given moment, which means that it is the most substantial S/R level in this indicator. And as you can see, there is quite a gap below 28k.
So if this pattern breaks POC without significant volume from the bulls, we could retest the 25k level, where the next serious resistance is.
KBE: S&P500 / BANK RUNS / RSI / MACD / DIVERGENCE / BANK CRISIS DESCRIPTION: The chart above shows a relationship between KBE & SPX which is important for the current ongoing banking issues. KBE is a BANK ETF that reflects the overall performance of the banking sector in the United States. At the moment there is a major discrepancy between KBE & SPX value. Normally there is a consistent relationship between the banking sector performance and SPX value but one will have to give in eventually.
POINTS:
1. Deviation is 6.25 Point difference & represent crucial points of control for price action.
2. Vertical Orange Lines represent peak price action for S&P 500 & KBE before correction.
3. AVERAGE CORRECTION OF 12% ON KBE DURING BEAR MARKET.
RSI: Overextended from RSI AVERAGE banking sector can see some pullback in the coming days.
MACD: Currently in EXTREMELY OVERSOLD TERRITORY on MACD
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
AMEX:KBE
SP:SPX
Showcase of the Power of Market Profile AnalysisMarket Profile analysis is a powerful tool for traders and investors alike to analyze price movements in financial markets. The method is based on the concept that price moves in a predictable way, forming patterns that can be observed and analyzed.
The Market Profile chart is a visual representation (not shown here) of market activity, displaying the distribution of price over time. The chart is divided into horizontal sections, each representing a price level. The length of the bar indicates the duration of time during which trades occurred at that price level.
The Market Profile chart can be used to identify areas of price support and resistance, as well as areas of high and low volume. The three key components of the Market Profile chart are the Point of Control (POC), the Value Area, and the Single Prints.
The Point of Control (POC) is the price level at which the highest volume of trades occurred during the period under analysis. It represents the most actively traded price level during that time frame, and is often seen as a key support or resistance level.
The Value Area is the range of price levels that contain a specified percentage of the total trading volume during the period under analysis. The Value Area can be used to identify areas of price support and resistance, as well as potential trading opportunities.
Single Prints are price levels where trading activity occurred but did not overlap with any other price levels during the period under analysis. These are areas where price discovery occurred, and can be used to identify areas of potential price support or resistance.
By analyzing the Market Profile chart, traders can gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions. The chart can be used to identify areas of price support and resistance, as well as potential trading opportunities based on the volume and duration of trading activity at specific price levels.
Between end of Dec 2022 and end of Jan 2023, the price of the S&P 500 index (SPX) showed major reactions to the price levels drawn by using Market Profile analysis that was done in Oct 2022 . This is a prime example of the power of this trading method. By identifying key levels of support and resistance, traders were able to make more informed trading decisions and take advantage of market opportunities.
In conclusion, Market Profile analysis is a powerful tool for traders and investors who want to gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions. By analyzing the distribution of price and volume over time, traders can identify key levels of support and resistance, and take advantage of market opportunities. The example of the S&P 500 index (SPX) in October of last year showcases the power of this trading method, and demonstrates how it can be used to make profitable trades in a dynamic and ever-changing market.
NQ1!: VOLATILITY CYCLES / POINT OF CONTROL / OVER SUPPLY / MACRODESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO analysis on NQ1! which runs a similarly distinctive path to SPY, SPX, & ES1!. This chart is designed to create a clear separation between periods of volatility and shift in momentum. Each cycle beings and ends in the given order of OVERSOLD to OVERBOUGHT to OVERSOLD.
POINTS:
1. Deviation of 900 Points per Supply & Demand Channels. Deviation of 1,000 Points between Supply & Demand Pockets.
2. Current Cycle END was predicted by taking the average of past 4 cycles which results in a MEAN VALUE of 78 BARS.
3. Green Vertical Lines: Beginning of Bear Market & upcoming end of following cycle.
4. Orange Vertical Lines: Represent flip in MACD trajectory and overall shift in Pice Action Momentum.
5. ARCS represent OVERSUPPLY Price Action Momentum where price action lacks consolidation and is making brief REACH OUT of past Supply & Demand Pocket.
IMPORTANT: Current POINT OF CONTROL stands at 11,700 in relation to current Supply & Demand Pocket.
MACD: MACD EMA flips on the DAILY timeframe are indicative of a shift in in momentum.
RSI: A common RSI level of 35 is reached throughout every cycle which is indicative of an upcoming shift in trend.
SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario price action must find support at 11,700 with either a strong bounce from bottom of DEMAND ZONE OR SIDEWAYS CONSOLIDATION at the very least.
SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario price action breaks past 11,700 to the downside and further continues downward momentum to 10,700 which would be the SPY LEVEL EQUIVALENT of 360.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!
How to trade using Value Areas and POC?A few key concepts when using Market Profile in your trading:
1) Point of Control (POC) acts as price magnets, as they represent the price level where most time was spent during a trading day. Price tends to gravitate towards them.
2) Naked (Not visited) POC acts as stronger magnets than visited POCs.
3) When price enters / breaks into a Value Area, which represents a range of "fair value", price tends to visit the other end of the Value Area. For example above, the price breaks up from the Value Area Low before end of day yesterday, hit the Value Area High this morning.
You definitely won't find these key levels and ranges with traditional support and resistance lines drawing methods. Using Market Profile will give you the edge to become a better trader.
See my previous 2 posts:
SPX hitting huge excess area, which way will it go next?As you can see, the price is sitting in a large excess range, trying to push higher with the bullish momentum since the opening. Looks like it is feeling lots of selling pressure. But if we can break up and into the higher naked value area, there is great opportunity for a bull run to the value area high. Otherwise, we might go back to the value area from yesterday's price action. What's your take?? Will we go up or down?
BTCUSDT Swing Short Targets 20900, 20200, Naked POCsSwing shorts to 20900 and 20200 are a very good bet.
These are NPOCs from July 5, 6, and 7.
It is rare when the price does not return to a previous POCs, so they are very good targets.
POCs from HTFs (higher timeframes) are especially good targets because the higher time means more volume during that time period than LTFs (lower time frames)
The volume at a POC is too significant for traders to not bring the price back to it.
Until the price the returns to that POC, the POC is naked.
On Bybit's BTCUSDT perp market, the daily POCs from July 5, 6, and 7 are naked on a 1 tick bid/ask profile chart.
The POCs are
20900
: July 7
20200:
July 5 AND July 6
POCs (naked and virgin)
POCs are points of control. They are prices that had the highest volume during a time period. The high volume at that price means traders are strongly motivated to bring the price back to that POC value.
After a time period has closed, until the price returns to the POC of that period, in the jargon of order flow trading, the POC is called a naked or a virgin POC.
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Rejected! Next Stop Point Of Control!When taking a look at the S&P500 on the Daily TF, we can see that there was a clear rejection from the Volume area high (Blueish line above). The next stop will be the point of control (Red line). Most of the market does follow this chart so before you short, double-check their chart.
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below!
Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.






















