Proptrading
Naspers is going up - this is stuff they don't want you to knowCup and Handle has formed on Naspers and has even gapped up showing strong momentum.
7 >21 >200 Moving averages all turned up.
Target 1 is R3,626.50
CONCERN is that Gaps close 70% of the time and Naspers is a wild one which acts erratically.
Number of reasons which I don't think they'll be happy if I tell you but I'm an independent.
1. Companies love to trade the arbitrage between Tencent (China) and Naspers SA
2. Prop traders love to scalp on lower time frames chasing the daily runs, falls and gaps.
3. You'll see in the volume with Naspers there are tons of 1's thrown into the buys and sells. This is to spook traders out as they have to pay more brokerage.
A company like Naspers is a major game player for many traders and for this reason, the erratic movements in the charts look like this.
What is really up with the Funded Programs?Before we go any further, I want to state that
1) This post is NOT PROMOTING ANY prop firms/funded trader programs,
2) I do not hate or have anything against any prop firms/funded trader programs, I am just sharing my understanding from what I have read and experienced, and
3) Info here is not complete. If you choose to embark on any programs, please make sure you do your own due diligence.
Traditional Prop Firm
Typically refers to a group of traders that focus on buying and selling financial assets with the firm’s capital. The trader uses that firm's money to trade and in exchange receives a small wage and a large percentage of the profits. In practice, proprietary trading firms provide the capital, proprietary technology, training, coaching, and mentoring for you to become an elite trader.
Funded Programs
There has been an ever-increasing number of funded trader programs, marketing to retail traders about the huge profit-sharing potential (75-90%) when they become "a funded trader." And all that is required is paying for and passing an evaluation/testing period. You would pay anywhere from $84 to $184 for a $10,000 account and it could go as high as you want (almost)
A trader in the evaluation/testing period would have
- Profit target of 8-10% in phase 1 (typically 30 days)
- Profit target of 5% in phase 2 (typically 60 days)
- Daily drawdown of no more than 5%
- Overall drawdown of no more than 10-12%
From my experience coaching retail traders, newbie or average trader has an account size of no more than $10,000. This makes the idea of being funded to trade become really attractive, limiting the downside while almost maximizing the potential. However, there has also been a lot of negativity about these funded programs;
- the evaluation and actual trading accounts are demo accounts
- the company makes more money from traders failing than from profitable traders
- some traders claim to have never received their payouts
Are funded programs scams?
Again, I have not evaluated ALL funded programs to say this, but probably not. (Do your own due diligence!)
Companies running funded programs are likely just deploying a good business model, addressing a pain that most retail traders have (funding their account) and filling that gap.
Should you jump into a funded program?
There is a lot more information (more than discussed above) that needs to be considered before you jump in. A brief checklist:
1) Do you have a profitable trading strategy to deploy? ( if you don't have a profitable strategy, keep reading, learning & testing )
2) Have you used it for at least a year? ( avoid using funded programs as a testing ground, it can get costly! do it on a demo or even a $1,000 account first )
3) Does the strategy meet the max drawdown conditions? ( 5% a day, 10% total? For example, a martingale strategy is not likely to work )
4) How likely are you to bend your trading rules? ( rules set by the programs are set in stone, a breach even by the slightest and you would have failed )
5) Is it the right time to start? ( are markets in consolidation, on a holiday period, or super volatile with no clear trend )
Remember that the average annualized return of the S&P500 is 11.88% (1957 to 2021). Trying to make 8-10% in 30 days and then 5% in 60 days just to pass, tends to put the trader under a lot of stress. How do you perform under significant pressure?
What are your views of the funded programs? Share it with me in the comments
I have never thought much about the funded programs. But recently have been considering giving it a shot and live-streaming the trading process daily. Would you join me on the stream?
Stay tuned, it might just happen.
Bankrupt retest long. Targets $5 -> $47 Making a bet on retest*Sigh*
I know what you are going to say..
"Im an idiot"
Actually. I am just trading my plan...
I had a meme idea. Lets long this instrument with pure techicals.
Ride the possibility of a retest of resistance at $50 and set targets,
1st target. $5
2nd target $47
If this happens to be correct. I am F genious.
Look I just work at a bank, to be able to say the least that this is a gamble
And if you do fall into the red. Pull your positions.
Good luck everyone.
Prop-firm Challenges (FTMO) Risk ManagementProp-firms tell us to come trade for them so that they can take trades off our ideas. In reality they make their money on relying on the fact that 95% of traders are unprofitable and will fail either the challenge or verification stages of their trading.
People fail because either they do not have a real edge on the market, they cannot control their emotions, or some combination of the two.
If you only have a 10% total loss before you lose the account, why are you risking 1% per trade? why are you risking 1% with only 2% left? The short answer is because you cannot manage risk. And if you cannot manage risk you with either fail immediately, or fail in time.
This is a risk profile guide for attempts at FTMO or any other prop firm. The basic premise is to begin at 1% and raise it while in profit, and lower it while in loss. A new theoretical 0 point can be established even within profit in order to protect your gains.
You must understand that no single trade is that important. If you are hoping for a trade to change your life you are going about this the wrong way. What is important is compounding profitable trades that outweigh the losers.
Lets talk prop firms❗Its the buzz words and hot topic of the moment! PROP FIRMS
Before I start on this topic I want confirm I am a funded trader. This post isn't to promote this style of trading or prop firms.
I am writing this post for those who may not understand what a prop firm is and to share my own experiences on the route to being a funded trader.
What is a prop firm?
Proprietary trading is where a firm trades for its own financial gain instead of earning commissions for clients.
What is a prop trader?
A prop trader is someone who uses that firms money to trade with and in exchange receives a wage or a percentage of the profits.
Now those two statements above probably ring more true for those who work for financial institutes on trading floors all around the world.
The propriety trading firms I want to talk about are the retail prop firms that usually for a subscription or a challenge fee will allow you as a trader to trade funds provided by them.
Any profits you make on that account you as the trader will receive a share of the profits. Usually 70-80%.
The business model has drawn a lot attention some good and some bad.
So this seems a good starting point to discuss what we know of the business model.
To become a funded trader with these companies you must either pay a subscription or take a challenge.
You rules and conditions of which you have to abide by in order to gain and keep funded accounts.
Subscriptions model
This route to prop funding tends to be a monthly reoccurring payment. You are then given an account to trade with stipulations attached.
For the subscription model the rules on the account tend to be very tight/strict and the fee can be quiet hefty.
Challenge model
This route to funding is where the trader pays an entry fee in to a challenge to prove their trading credentials.
The trade will be set targets to meet over one or two phases in order to secure funding.
The account will have rules and stipulations applied for example 10% overall draw down.
If funding is secured then most companies refund the entry fee and you then as a funded trader earns money of any profits made on your funded account.
So that's the options to becoming a funded trader.
The retail prop firm business model has been criticised because some of these funded accounts are demo accounts once gained.
Some say these companies only make money off failures and that's why even their funded traders who have passed are only ever trading demo accounts.
Some prop firms on completion of challenges give you real accounts. But do we truly know they are real or does it just say real?
A prop firm most definitely makes money from failed challenge attempts as part of it's business model. No one will ever know for real if they copy trade their top funded traders either.
But in my opinion they would be daft not to copy trade consistent performers that take payouts of these firms every month because they exists.
Prop trading pros and cons.
Their is pro and cons to any choice in life and prop trading is no exception.
I'll cover my personal pro and cons to the prop world below.
PROS
-For traders who are consistent and proven but only have small capital available, Prop trading is a good route to potentially larger trading pots.
-Most prop firms have scaling plans
-Prop firm gives trader the opportunity to funding most would never of got if they didn't exists. Most would never get an the opportunity to trade for a big institute. Prop firms bridge that gap.
-Given the amount of firms popping up a consistent trader could soon find themselves with a diverse portfolio of accounts giving some life changing chances and monthly profit opportunity.
-Most prop firms have favourable commissions and spreads with some having no commissions what so ever.
-Reduced personal risk . Worse case scenario for a funded trader is losing the account rather than massive personal losses.
CONS
-Even when funded you have to adhere to rules and terms of the prop firm
-You could spend big money getting traded
-The health of the prop firm you trade for is unknown and one prop firm has already dis-appeared.
-In reality the targets set are gain the funded account is quiet high at 8-10% in 30 calendar days.
-Violation of rules ends in account loss.
Summary
I can only speak of the journey I have taken myself.
For me the pros out weighed the cons when it came to seeking funding via these prop firms and the opportunities they offer.
I personally don't mind paying a fee to enter challenges as you need some emotional attachment to the challenge in order for you to play your best trading game.
If these were free to enter then everyone would just go big and all out to get funded then would do exact same if managing to get funded. That would be sustainable for no one.
That's not what trading is about it's about risk management and emotional control which helps lead to consistent trading results.
For a 100k challenge most prop firms charge between £400-£500 that is still a fair amount of money for anyone and you should be treating it as a serious venture if your not then you are simply gambling.
Funded accounts being a demo account hasn't bothered me. I get paid when I'm in profit and that's all that matters.
Spreading accounts over different prop firms lowers risk and exposure to losing all your funded accounts.
One well known firm has gone and thankfully I wasn't with them but aiming for a few accounts with different firms lowers risk of finding yourself funded one minute then not the next.
Are they a scam? In ever growing market place bad apples will be operating in the sector.
As traders you have to do own research but plenty have been round for a while now with good reviews to boot.
Trading in general is hard and gaining 8-10% in one month to pass then doing 5% the following is no easy feat.
Get a game plan and strategy together, back test and forward test the live out of it and when consistency is there only then is it worth attempting funding challenges.
Love them or hate them prop firms are here and making some noise.
They offer opportunity a plenty but they do come with mystique attached.
You as a trader and an individual have to judge if they are for you or not.
Simple way I looked at the opportunity
1 Funded 200k account
3% profit per month = $6000
80% profit split= $4800
GBP= £3478
Approx equivalent to 57k GBP a year!
Freedom can be closer than you think.
Thanks for taking time to read my idea
Darren.
US30 SMART MONEY CONCEPTOverall market structure is bearish, we need retracament so after the little up movement searching for sells in the POI, like orderblocks, imbalances, fibonacci ote zones ( 70-79 )
EURUSD - what to expect next week (24-28 Aug)After a month of sideways price action, it is amost time for EURUSD to pick a direction.
Indeed, as we can see, the price will face a compression soon as the ascending trendline and the channel midline are about to meet. This attention area is indicated by the orange triangle. The direction of the breakout will most likely indicate which side of the channel be broken also.
This compression will lead the breakout to reach the respective target box.
Dax daily: 29 Aug 2019 Yesterday's session drew a nice 'V' shape. The price started to fall towards the support level of 11 561 right from the beginning of the session and this was the area where price marked its intraday low and bounced back upwards. The first support zone laying at 11 678 had little effect. The statistical probability about closing inside the previous day range was also fulfilled.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 772
Support: 11 608, trendline
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
08:45 - 09:55 CEST - various Eurozone reports - refer to the Economic calendar
Today's session hypothesis
For today's price estimation, we need to monitor the Price Action around the slightly consolidated area formed around yesterday's close. If Dax goes above this zone, it is likely we see a retest of 11 772 and the return back to the range zone of the past few days. Contrary, should bears prove their presence, we can see the retest of our support level and the trendline around 11 600 which could serve as an interesting area for some bullish correction.
Dax daily: 28 Aug 2019 Yesterday's high was broken out as yesterday's statistics hinted. There was no apparent resistance up till the 11 774 level which eventually stopped the bulls. The 11 678 zone functioned as a support level and the session was closed outside of the previous day range and this fulfilled the same statistical probability as well.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 774
Support: 11 678
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability of closing inside of yesterday's session is 87%
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Today we opened with a small gap which is already closed at the time of writing. The statistics suggest the price shouldn't get out of yesterday's range. The high from yesterday at 11 774 now serves as our resistance level. We are seeing a support level at 11 678. This zone is likely to be retested and we need to monitor the price action there. In case this support holds the price, we would like to see the breakout of the 11 774 resistance zone.
Dax daily: 22 Aug 2019 Unfortunately, yesterday's session didn't go according to our expectations. We've had clues for a bearish move and breakout of the previous day low, but Dax proved otherwise. The price was trending upwards with a strong momentum right from the beginning of the session and the resistance at 11 691 played no role too. Dax slowed down later in the afternoon, yet closed in the upper band of its range. Today we open with a descending gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 779
Support: 11 667, trend line zone
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs
13:30 CEST - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
Today's session hypothesis
Currently, the price descends towards the support level of 11 729 and we hope to find buyers there and head towards the closure of the gap. Up at the resistance zone of 11 779 there might be some bearish correction but eventually, bulls are likely to prevail to retest yesterday's high. If that happens, sellers are likely to return back to the range to close inside - this thesis has a statistical probability of 77%.
Dax daily: 21 Aug 2019 Tuesday's session was a bit odd from our point of view. Dax initially descended to our support at 11 646, but rather than bullish correction we hoped for, price action rather slowed down. Dax then closed near it's intraday low and today we open with an ascending gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 691
Support: 11 560
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's low is 96%
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Considering the very high probability for breaking yesterday's low, then all our short trades have a clear target. If yesterday's low gets broken, we can estimate a faster move towards 11 560 which is a really nice support level. Sellers are likely to step in around 11 691. Should Dax break yesterday's high, then the short hypothesis becomes invalid as the statistics suggest the breakout of both swings is as low as 7% only.
Dax daily: 20 Aug 2019 Monday's session turned out as per our expectations. Although there was no short to capitalize on, one of our hypothesis was the significance of trend-line to support bullish traders. The resistance at 11 723 slowed down the price incline but no big short correction was seen. Today we open with a small ascending gap, which has a 60% probability of closing.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 899, 11 723
Support: 11 646
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability of closing outside of yesterday's range is 71%
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
For today, we again expect the initial drop towards 11 646 where we hope to find buyers and finally start heading towards 11 899. If Dax goes below yesterday's low, it is likely we see a faster continuation towards 11 560 which might be another attractive zone for bull traders. If bullish momentum prevails right from the beginning of the session, then the first logical target is the high swing at 11 829 and then 11 899.
Dax daily: 19 Aug 2019 Friday's session was relatively difficult to trade. It looked like the price might go down a few times, but bulls were stronger and took the price towards our resistance at 11 606. In the end, the gap between the sessions wasn't closed and the trendline wasn't even relevant. For today, we open with yet another ascending gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 899, 11 723
Support: 11 404, trend-line, 11 560
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
We estimate a short correction towards Friday's close at 11 560 where bulls are likely to take over and take the price to retest the 11 723. The main target for this week lays at 11 899. If Dax goes well below 11 560, we are likely to see a slow down of Price Action and closing inside Friday's range.
Dax daily: 16 Aug 2019 Thursday's session turned as expected. Dax broke the previous day low, which had a statistical probability of 96%. Sellers were dominant right from the beginning and proved their strengths yet before 11 629 so the profit potential wasn't that exciting. Dax dropped some 300 points just to almost fully correct this drop later in the day. Thursday was a rollercoaster day and really hard to trade.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 606
Support: 11 404, trend-line
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
For today, we'd like to see a drop towards yesterday's close and find some buyers there. Considering the Price Action, we see indications of yesterday's high. Yesterday's low looks pretty safe though. The upside correction could happen at 11 606.
Dax daily: 15 Aug 2019 Our market analysis didn't go well yesterday. We've had clues for the uptrend continuation and breaking of Tuesday's high. Instead of that, Dax gave us the complete opposite and formed a big daily sell-off. Today we open with an ascending gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 899, 11 629
Support: NIL
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability for breaking yesterday's low is 96%
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
We anticipate the bullish correction until yesterday's mid-range. The resistance level of 11 629 or even lower could be a good zone for sellers to target yesterday's low, which has a really high statistical probability. Even though we have such a powerful hint for today's price direction, it is important to remember that markets might always behave erratically and the statistic might not be fulfilled.
Dax daily: 14 Aug 2019 Dax started the day with the expected drop and breaking the previous day low, which had a statistical probability of 83%. There was a sudden price spike after 15:30 when Dax shot higher some 300 points based on Trump's tweets. After the dust settled, Dax slowed down and hasn't really gone anywhere for the rest of the session. Today's gap has already been closed.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 899, 12 031
Support: 11 660
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Wednesday's session could start with the correction of yesterday's move. Buyers are likely to enter around the support level of 11 660 and attempt to take the price higher towards 11 899 and close this gap finally. We also have 87% statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high or low, but considering the fact that low is distanced some 230 points and the normal daily range is 110 - 160 points, it makes sense to anticipate a breakout of yesterday's high.
Dax daily: 13 Aug 2019 Monday's session brought the initial short which broke our trend line. After breaking yesterday's low, buyers stepped in to retest the trendline just to allow bears to take it lower again. The price was then closed near its intraday low.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 899, 12 031
Support: NIL
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's low is 83%
Macroeconomic releases
11:00 CEST - German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Today's session hypothesis
Today we expect a breakout of yesterday's low which has a good chance as per the statistics. Our short trades then have a clear target. We can find sellers around the trend line from yesterday. Considering the low at 11 538 has been retested thrice already, it is now likely to see a breakout with a further downside continuation. In case buyers take control after the low breakout, it is more probable the price will oscillate inside yesterday's session.
Dax daily: 09 Aug 2019 The session yesterday started with an ascending gap which was closed yet in the morning trading hours. Sellers took Dax to retest the support level at 11 716 where we saw a power shift and buyers regained control of the further price development. The session was closed at 11 823.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 901
Support: 11 716
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Another gap opening but with a different situation today. It was quite probable yesterday that the gap was to be closed, just as we highlighted. Price opened above previous day's range and gap was at a strong S/R zone which was likely to be retested. Today we open in the middle of yesterday's session and it's not clearly defined who has the advantage. The statistical application indicates a 50% probability which is another undecisive information for a price estimate. We are left to wait for the price action and follow the mood of the market. We estimate today's trading ranging between 11 716 and 11 901.






















