PayPal Under Pressure! Bearish WMA Break Signals Downside🎯 PYPL: The "Weighted MA Breakout Heist" 💰 | Bears Taking Control
📊 Asset Overview
PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) - Digital payments heavyweight showing bearish signals after weighted moving average breakdown.
🔍 The Setup: When Moving Averages Tell Tales
The chart's singing a bearish tune, folks! 🎵 We've got a Weighted Moving Average breakout to the downside — and when WMA breaks, it usually doesn't ask for permission to keep falling. Think of it like gravity... but for stock prices! 📉
💡 Trade Blueprint
🚪 Entry Zone
Flexible entry approach - Current market price works as entry. The beauty of this setup? The trend is your friend, so catching this wave at various levels could work. Just don't chase it blindly!
💭 Pro Tip: Scale in rather than going all-in at once. Dollar-cost averaging on the way down can be your best friend in bearish plays.
🛡️ Risk Management (The "Safety Net" Level)
Stop Loss: $68.00 🚨
Look, I'm calling this the "thief SL" because if price touches this level, you need to exit stage left — no questions asked! This isn't financial advice, just a technical level where the bearish thesis breaks down.
⚠️ Important: Set YOUR OWN stop loss based on your risk tolerance and account size. This is just a technical reference point, not a commandment carved in stone!
🎯 Profit Target (The "Escape Route")
Target: $60.00 💵
Why $60? Three compelling reasons:
📍 Moving Average Support Zone - Historical MA convergence area
📉 Oversold Territory - RSI/momentum indicators suggest potential bounce zone
Liquidity Trap Alert - Big money often parks orders here
⚠️ Reality Check: Markets don't move in straight lines. Take profits along the way! Suggested approach: Scale out 30% at $63, another 40% at $61.50, and let the final 30% ride to $60.
🔗 Related Pairs to Watch (Correlation Play)
Keep your eyes on these tickers — they often move in sympathy with PYPL:
SET:SQ (Block Inc.) - Fellow fintech, similar payment space dynamics 🔄
$V (Visa) - Traditional payment processor, inverse correlation during fintech weakness 💳
NYSE:MA (Mastercard) - Same logic as Visa, watch for divergence 🏦
NASDAQ:COIN (Coinbase) - Crypto exposure correlation with digital payment sentiment 🪙
NASDAQ:SHOP (Shopify) - E-commerce correlation, PYPL's merchant base overlap 🛒
Key Correlation Note: When fintech stocks sell off, traditional payment processors often see inflows. Watch the $V and NYSE:MA strength as potential confirmation of PYPL weakness!
📈 Technical Highlights
✅ Weighted Moving Average breakdown confirmed
✅ Volume supporting the bearish move
✅ Lower highs and lower lows pattern forming
✅ Key support zones identified below
✅ Risk-reward ratio favors the short side
⚡ The "Thief Style" Philosophy
This isn't about being greedy — it's about being strategic! 🎭 We identify the setup, execute with precision, and exit with profits before the crowd realizes what happened. That's the art of tactical trading!
Remember: The market doesn't care about your opinion. Price action is king 👑
✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!
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Pyplidea
PayPal: Further Downside ExpectedPayPal initially extended its decline as anticipated, before a modest upward rebound began to emerge. Overall, bearish momentum should primarily persist, likely pushing price below the $50.18 support level and completing the broader correction of the beige wave II. However, there is also a 39% probability that beige wave alt.II has already concluded. In that scenario, the stock would currently be developing a magenta upward impulse and would be in the process of forming (or would have already formed) the low of wave alt. . Wave alt. would then bring further gains, potentially breaking through resistance at $94.97.
PayPal: Trading Sideways Amid VolatilityPayPal has recently experienced notable volatility but has continued to trade sideways within a certain range. Our primary expectation is that further downward momentum will dominate, potentially driving price below both support levels at $54.78 and $50.18 to complete the correction of beige wave II. However, there is also a 37% chance that PYPL has already finished beige wave alt.II at $54.78. In that scenario, the stock would already be building a sustained magenta upward impulse and could break out above the resistance levels at $80.65 and $94.97 during wave alt. .
PayPal: Stuck in Consolidation—Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?We expect PayPal to eventually break out of its current consolidation to the downside to complete the larger correction of beige wave II below the $50.18 support level. Alternatively, it’s possible that PYPL already finished wave alt.II back in April, which could set the stage for an early upside breakout—first above the $78.86 resistance and then even beyond the higher $94.97 level (probability: 30%).
PayPal: Bears Losing Control – AgainPayPal (PYPL) has faced renewed downside pressure since our last update, but the bears failed to maintain control for long. The stock quickly rebounded toward key resistance at $78.86. If this level is decisively breached, we will consider the broader correction complete with the alternative low of beige wave alt.II. This would position the stock in the early stages of a new bullish impulse – wave alt.1 – with a 45% probability assigned to this scenario. However, under our primary scenario, we still envision wave II reaching its regular low below support at $50.18. Thus, renewed selling pressure is expected to push the price beneath that level in the near term. Once the low is in place, we reckon with a new impulsive advance.
📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
PayPal: Upward PressurePYPL has remained under upward pressure, moving significantly closer to the important resistance at $78.86. If the price rises above this level directly, we will have to assume that it has already completed the beige wave alt.II —and thus the overarching corrective movement—with the last notable low. Consequently, in this 45% probable case, the stock would have already entered a new upward cycle, specifically the first wave alt.1 of a turquoise upward impulse. Primarily, however, we expect the stock to imminently reverse downward to complete the regular wave II below the support at $50.18. Only afterward should a new sustainable upward impulse begin—initially driving rises above $94.97.
PayPal: Slight Recovery!In recent days, PYPL shares showed a significant recovery, raising the central question of whether the price will indeed dive into deeper territories once more, as assumed in our primary scenario. In this case, we expect the stock to fall below the support at $50.18. There, the stock should form the final low of the overarching beige wave II, thus laying the foundation for a sustainable trend reversal. Alternatively, the overarching low may have already been settled at the beginning of the month. In this 45% likely scenario, the recovery would imminently gain momentum, allowing PYPL to sustainably rise above the resistance levels at $78.86 and $94.97.
PYPL IS BEING PREPAREDI think the price will rise from the 65-67.5 price range. It is a nice range and we can see it as a test of the area it breaks. Although 75 is the first resistance, it should not bring much selling. After staying above 78, I expect a movement towards the 86 gap and the 110 region.
PYPL *KEY* LEVELHere is PYPL with a macro and micro point of view. 4h is showing a inverted head and shoulders pattern initiating but when zoomed into the 5m we can see that price closed at a gap down level signifying weakness of buyers at sitting unfulfilled sell orders. If price where to gap above these orders we can expect a strong continuation to the upside to follow through the INVS H&S. If we were to gap down at open expect an even stronger flush to the previous gap up level.
PAYPAL - Long Term Accumulation WindowPaypal - NASDAQ:PYPL
Below I cover the Chart and some interesting fundamental news on what Paypal is upto.....
CHART
Everyone should have expected significant resistance at the $74.66 price level due to a confluence of the following at that level;
1. 200 Day SMA
2. Point of Control (POC)
3. Falling Wedge Diagonal overhead resistance
(SEE CHART FOR OUTLINE)
Further downside in the short term would not surprise me, however the long term positive divergence presents a long term opportunity.
How am I playing this?
I have a long term small position that is 15% in the negative at present, its thee one negative position I hold. Similar to NIO (which was at a small loss for weeks on end, I continued to average in on a positive divergence), I will average now to PYPL with a 2nd purchase and if we drop down to the RSI resistance line I will average in again with a 3rd purchase.
Ideally traders, would want a break out above the point of confluence on the chart and to find support above or on $74.66. I would not be day or week trading from current levels. I intend to hold for months, potentially years, similar to my NIO play.
If we lost the bottom of the falling wedge I would cut my losses at this point.
This is a High Risk / High Reward trade. The NIO trade has rendered me a significant 50% unrealized profit over the past few weeks. It could take months for me to see a similar return here on Paypal, and I'm ok with that. Timeframe expectation is long term.
What's PayPal Upto?
Interestingly Paypal announced a major deal with KKR in June 2023 whereby KKR agreed to purchase up to €40 billion of eligible current and future PayPal Pay Later loans that originated in Europe.
PayPal has become an industry leader with its PayPal Pay Later products, issuing more than 200 million loans to over 30 million customers in eight markets around the world since 2020.
PayPal expects to allocate approximately $1 billion to incremental share repurchases this year and updated the outlook from approximately $4 billion to approximately $5 billion in total share repurchases in 2023.
Paypals close association with KKR is notable. KKR - Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. are an major American global investment company who have secured the two largest company buy outs in history RJR Nabisco & TXU. Paypal have huge ambitions and the buck to back them from the KKR.
The deal and association with KKR is yet another reason to keep a long term headset on for this trade/investment.
PUKA
PayPal is starting to recoverHi, according to my analysis of Paypal shares. There is a good buying opportunity. The stock appears. In a positive condition with the stock exiting the descending channel. And breaking the strong resistance at level 68. Which indicates a strong entry of buyers. Good luck to all
PayPal: More Weight! 🏋️Load up – PayPal needs more weight to gain enough downwards pressure! We expect the share to make it below the support at $66.11 and thus into the gray zone between $66.16 and $34.93. There, the course should complete wave II in gray and take off above the resistance at $93.52 afterward. However, there is a 35% chance that PayPal could conquer this mark earlier and skip its visit to the gray zone. In that case, we would consider wave alt.II to be already finished.















