$QTUM #QTUMBTC Extensive Technical Analysis- Day Trader ExplainsHello Lads and Ladies,
Welcome back to TJs Daily TA session. Today, we will be looking at the trading pair of QTUM/BTC, requested by the Traders of School of Sparta. This trading pair has been making people a lot of money in the last year and it seems like that it will do it again very soon. I will tell you what I see, how I will make my own trade and explain how this might play out in a long term and in a short-term set up.
To start off we need to identify where we are in the market and what happened before, so we can understand where we are headed and what we might see in the future.
We are using the daily chart because only here we are able to correctly see and identify the trend. The reasoning behind this is that we do not want to trade against the trend and actually be able to get with the directional momentum of the chart.
Looking at QTUMBTC we can immediately see that we had a very strong and continuous downtrend form many months up until we came to a form of support and confirmed it after bounces, then broke the trend with a nice double bottom structure indicated in the yellow circle. Yet, as we know the crypto has not moved a lot in the last few months and is lacking of the correct volume and volatility. Therefore some coins and charts have a rather sideways going chart and action, here we see the same example again with QTUMBTC.
Sure, a sideway action could be short-lived and just "small stop" in the chart, yet it is holding itself for quite a long time there and keeping its support while everything else is going up, especially its oscillators and indicators.
Therefore we can say with a 80% certainty that it has bottomed out and is now in an accumulation of all of the coins that got sold over the huuuge downtrend. We have seen sudden pumps and continuations of the pumps, yet nothing really significant yet. Which leaves us with the most likely possibility that people are buying a lot of it, yet not pumping it high enough to gain attention and have a really big breakout due to FOMOers and unexperienced traders. Opportunities like these are not there very often and only traders with experience get to trade it and fill their pockets with a lot of BTC when the accumulation ends and the price starts moving upwards.
A view behind the scenes - "unfilled expanse"
When looking at a chart, the market structure and its movement creates an expanse on the chart of which you can actually calculate its surface. Now, the bigger the expanse is above the chart, the higher you have a "pull" of the chart, connected with a high buy pressure.
On the other hand, the bigger the expanse is below the chart, the higher is the pull down which is connected to a higher sell pressure.
Looking at these areas can help a lot while understanding the look behind the scenes. This works on small as on bigger timeframes and will be a topic in one of my next live-sessions.
From a rookie look, one could simply look how many possible targets above are there and how many possible targets are below.
With QTUMBTC we see that the targets above are many and wide spread, where we see here as we saw in NEOBTC as well, that there is only one target left below and breaking it would mean a complete breakdown of the market. THE THING IS, with each day and week moving sideways, we have higher and higher expanse which then at some point in time will have a TOO STRONG pull and the chart will break out and start moving upwards, while doing so gain momentum and maybe even enter an exponential phase.
As a small side note, after the last bigger push, we have now had a 61.8% retracement and are basically in the perfect position to see the next impulse move, which might or might not be the first move to break down the downtrending structure. Funnily enough this 61,8% retrace is at the exact price of 0.000618...
Based on all of the above I will make my trade like follows
QTUMBTC / Binance
BUY 618 - 575 - 550 - 520 - 500
Targets 800 - 950 - 1275 - 1400 - 1750 - 1850 - 2000 - 2200 - 2400 - 2700
Stop Loss Close Below 450
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Cheers, TJ
