Gold can Complete its Topping Pattern and FallHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The market has been developing a complex consolidation structure after its initial uptrend failed to sustain momentum. After breaking out of a first range, the bullish impulse failed, leading to a breakdown below the major ascending mirror line and establishing the current, higher second range. The price action for XAU has since been contained within this new consolidation, repeatedly testing the upper resistance and lower support boundaries. Currently, the asset is again testing the upper boundary of this range, an area that has consistently attracted sellers. In my mind, this price action is forming a complex topping pattern. I expect that the price will be rejected from the top of the current range, perhaps after a brief interaction with the nearby mirror line, and then fail at the highs one more time. I think this final failure will trigger a significant decline with enough momentum to break the mirror line support decisively. Therefore, I have placed my TP at the 3630 current support level, targeting the bottom of this second range. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Range
EURUSD Long: Rally Continues in Ascending ChannelHello, traders! The prior price auction for EURUSD was dominated by a wide consolidation range, bounded by the demand zone 2. Within this range, a new bullish structure began to form as an ascending channel, which eventually gathered enough momentum to break out and confirm a new uptrend, shifting market control to the buyers.
Currently, the price action continues to be guided by this ascending channel. Following a recent test of the upper price levels, the market has entered a corrective phase. The auction is now pulling back towards a significant confluence of support, located near the 1.1740 DEMAND level, which also aligns with the channel's dynamic support line.
My scenario for the development of events is a continuation of the uptrend after this correction completes. I expect the price to find strong support at the confluence of the channel's demand line and the 1.1740 - 1.1760 DEMAND ZONE. In my opinion, a confirmed bounce from this area will signal the end of the pullback and trigger the next impulsive move higher. The take-profit is therefore set at 1.1865, an intermediate target within the channel's structure. Manage your risk!
Gold can continue its bullish trend after small correctionHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The market context for Gold has been firmly bullish since the price broke out of its prior consolidation range, a move that originated from the deep 3270 - 3290 buyer zone. This breakout shifted the market structure, initiating a new impulsive phase that has since been guided by a major ascending mirror line. The price action for XAU has been respecting this dynamic support, creating a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Currently, after reaching a new local high, the asset is undergoing a healthy corrective phase. This pullback is guiding the price back towards a critical confluence of support, defined by the 3622 - 3598 support zone and the ascending mirror line itself. The primary working hypothesis is a long, trend-continuation scenario, which anticipates that buyers will step in to defend this key support cluster. A confirmed bounce from this area would signal the conclusion of the corrective move and the resumption of the dominant upward trend. This would likely initiate the next impulsive wave higher. Therefore, the TP is logically placed at 3720, representing a new potential structural high. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
XAUUSD: Bounce from 3615 Support LevelHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup.
Market Analysis
From a broader perspective, after a strong run-up within a prior Upward Channel, the price action for Gold has transitioned into a horizontal consolidation Range. This shift from a trending to a ranging market indicates a period of balance as buyers and sellers digest the previous impulsive move.
Currently, the price is in a corrective phase within this Range. After recently failing to break above the Resistance Zone, sellers have pushed the price down, and it is now approaching the major horizontal support at the bottom of the consolidation, near the Support 1 level.
My Scenario & Strategy
I think that this Range structure will continue to hold for now. The lower boundary, which aligns with Support 1 at 3615, is a significant area of historical support. This Support zone represents a high-probability area for buyers to step in and defend, just as they have in the past.
My scenario is that Gold will complete its drop to the lower part of the consolidation, testing the Support 1 level. Therefore, I expect that a successful defense of this support will lead to a rally back across the Range. My target for this move is 3700, which is placed within the major Resistance Zone at the top of the consolidation.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
BTCUSD: Price Exit from Triangle and Reach Resistance LevelHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Bitcoin setup.
Market Analysis
From a broader perspective, the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating within a wide Range, oscillating between the major Support zone around the 109500 level and the Resistance Zone up to 121200. This lengthy period of balance has now tightened into a more defined triangle pattern, suggesting energy is building.
Currently, the price is coiling within the final stages of this triangle, a classic sign of volatility compression. After a recent test of the upper resistance line, the price is in a corrective pullback, heading towards the ascending support line for what I see as a key test of buyer strength.
My Scenario & Strategy
I'm looking for the price to complete its corrective move and find strong support on the ascending Triangle Support Line. A confirmed bounce from this dynamic support would be the key signal that the next impulsive move up is about to begin, with the goal being a breakout from the top of the triangle.
Therefore, the strategy is to watch for this bounce. A successful rebound that leads to a breakout above the Resistance Zone would validate the long scenario. The primary target for this breakout move is the 120000 Resistance level.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
NFP "Goldilocks" playbook? EURUSD triggers revealed!Markets are optimistic and consolidating ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with EUR/USD poised for a breakout, plus a quick technical overview of gold, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY.
Mood : Buoyant—risk assets and equities are near weekly highs, bond yields are easing.
Consensus : A "Goldilocks" NFP (not too hot, not too cold) is expected, supporting a 25bp Fed rate cut this month and possibly another by year-end.
Catalysts : Recent softer labour data and dovish Fed commentary have fueled bets on a more accommodative policy stance.
EUR/USD Conditional Scenarios
Key Levels: Support at 1.1524, 1.1580, 1.1600, 1.1625; Resistance at 1.1700, 1.1735, 1.1760, 1.1830
Scenarios :
Strong NFP : Sell 1.1650–1.1670, targets 1.1600/1.1580/1.1524, stop 1.1700
Goldilocks NFP : Range trade 1.1625–1.1700, buy/sell at edges, stops 1.1580/1.1720
Weak NFP : Buy 1.1630–1.1650, targets 1.1735/1.1760/1.1830, stop 1.1600
Risk : 1–2% per trade, always use stops, watch for ECB-driven reversals
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XAUUSD Short: Correction After the All-Time HighHello, traders! The prior market structure for XAUUSD was a prolonged consolidation range, from which the price broke out with significant bullish momentum. This breakout initiated a powerful upward trend, with the price auction pushing through multiple resistance levels to establish a new all-time high. This marked the climax of the recent buying initiative.
Currently, following the peak at the ATH, the market has entered a corrective phase. Sellers have taken control in the short term, and the price is now declining from the highs. The auction is presently challenging the first major demand zone located between 3585 and 3570, but the bearish momentum appears strong.
The primary scenario anticipates a continuation of this corrective move. The expectation is that the current 3570 demand level will fail to hold against the selling pressure. A confirmed breakdown below this demand zone would validate the short thesis and open the path for a deeper correction towards the main ascending trend line. The take-profit is therefore set at 3565, targeting the area immediately following this breakdown. Manage your risk!
BTCUSD: Consolidation will ContinueHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Bitcoin setup.
Market Analysis
From a broader perspective, the market for Bitcoin has shifted from a trending phase into a wide consolidation Range. This occurred after the price broke down from a prior Upward Wedge, signaling a pause in the bullish momentum and establishing the current boundaries between the 107700 Support and the 119000 Resistance.
Currently, the price has completed a full rotation from the bottom of this Range and is now approaching the major horizontal Resistance at the 119000 level. This is a historically significant area that has repeatedly capped rallies and acted as a strong barrier for buyers.
My Scenario & Strategy
I'm anticipating that the price will make a final push into the 119800 - 119000 Resistance Zone. The key signal I'm watching for is a clear rejection from this area, confirming that sellers are still in control at these prices and that another rotation downwards is likely.
Therefore, the strategy is to watch for this rejection at the top of the Range. A confirmed reversal would validate the short scenario. The primary target for this downward rotation is 111000 points, an intermediate level within the Range where a price reaction could be expected.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Gold may move up a little and then start to declineHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The market for Gold has transitioned from a prolonged balancing phase into a strong directional trend, following a decisive breakout from its prior multi-week big range. This breakout, originating from the support area near the 3445 level, shifted market control firmly to buyers and initiated a new impulsive phase. The price action for XAU since then has been characterized by a steep, high-momentum rally, which is being guided by an ascending mirror line. Currently, the asset is at a new high, continuing to push upwards along this aggressive trendline. However, such accelerated trends are often unsustainable and can signal that the market is becoming overextended and due for a correction. I expect that after a potential final push higher, the price will stage a sharp reversal, with enough selling pressure to cause a breakdown below the steep mirror line. A break of this dynamic support would be the first confirmation that a corrective phase has begun. Therefore, the TP for this corrective scenario is logically placed at 3520 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
GBPCAD – Triple Tap Trouble!GBPCAD has been trading within a well-defined range, with price rejecting the 1.8850 resistance zone multiple times in the past.
Each test of this area has led to strong bearish moves, highlighting its significance as a supply zone.
Here’s what the chart shows:
🔴 Resistance Zone: Price is approaching the upper bound of the range, where sellers have consistently stepped in.
🔵 Support Zone: The 1.8300 area remains a solid demand zone, holding price higher on several occasions.
📈 Rising Channel: The latest bullish leg is developing inside an ascending channel, but momentum is slowing near resistance.
⚠️ Short Opportunity: As long as price trades below the resistance, the area remains attractive for short setups targeting the mid-range or lower bound.
Confirmation with bearish candlestick patterns will strengthen the case for a downside move.
📌 Will GBP/CAD respect its range and roll over once again, or will the bulls finally break through?
This analysis is for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Always manage risk properly before taking trades.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk management, and trade execution.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
GBPJPY – Testing the Range Once AgainGBPJPY has been stuck in a wide range between 198.00 (support) and 200.50 (resistance) for several weeks now.
🔻 Sellers continue to defend the upper boundary (red arrows).
🔹 Buyers are stepping in around the 198.00 demand zone (blue arrows).
📈 Price is currently rejecting the resistance area once more while also sitting above the rising trendline (red).
If the resistance holds, we could see a rejection toward the lower bound of the range. On the other hand, a clean breakout above 200.50 would be needed for bulls to take full control. 🚀
This setup makes GBPJPY one of the key pairs to watch in the coming days.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and follow your trading plan before making any investment decisions.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk management, and trade execution.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
DXY Analysis – Are Bad News Already Priced In?Since Trump entered the White House, the U.S. Dollar has taken a hard hit against its major counterparts, losing more than 10% overall.
But looking closer at the chart, we see a different story: since the April low around 97.80, the DXY has been stuck in a range-bound pattern, with the exception of July’s dip that was quickly reversed.
Lately, the USD has faced strong headwinds:
• Two weak NFP reports in a row.
• The Fed hinting at rate cuts.
• A constant flow of bearish headlines.
And yet, the Dollar did not collapse to fresh lows — instead, it simply revisited the same levels as before. This is a classic market signal that bad news may already be priced in.
From a technical standpoint, August was nothing but an annoying tight range:
• Support around 97.50.
• Resistance near 98.50.
Now, although the index looks like it’s breaking lower, I suspect this is another false breakdown, one that could be reversed quickly. If that plays out, the stage is set for a push higher — potentially to the 100 zone, a clean 3% rise from current levels.
Such a move would naturally translate into pressure on the majors:
• EUR/USD could slide back toward 1.14.
• GBP/USD could retreat near 1.35.
For now, I’m watching closely for reversal signals. The market has punished the USD for months, but if sellers are exhausted, the Dollar may surprise to the upside. 🚀
Follow-Up: Non-Farm Moves from FridayHi All,
Following up on the range (size of the move) after non-farm on Friday to see how close our range expectation estimates were (see the earlier video post linked here for that).
The actual number came in pretty poor and worse than expected at 22k (vs 75k expected).
The move on the Non-farm release itself was actually quite muted with roughly a 20pt move on both sides of our VWAP starting point. But the real move came around 30 minutes into the US open where we saw a quick decline down to our lower boundary (50pts lower at 6470) and then briefly over-ran to 6450. But we settled and that 6470 became support for most of the session before reverting back to that declining VWAP to finish the day around 6490.
So, what's the lesson here: a bit of time pre-framing the possibilities for moves in either direction using a combination of stats (ATR, standard deviation of range), other technical analysis tools (support/resistance, VWAP, vol profile) along with experience can help frame the day and the important levels. Use this to start to decide what tools to pull out of the toolbox (trading strategies) and where to initiate trades.
If you find this helpful and would like to see more please let me know.
Happy Trading!
Gold will continue to grow inside upward channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The market context for Gold has been firmly bullish since the price broke out of its prior consolidation range, a move that originated from the deep buyer zone. This breakout shifted the market structure, initiating a new impulsive phase that has since been neatly contained within a well-defined upward channel. The price action for XAU has been respecting the boundaries of this channel, creating a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Currently, after being rejected from the channel's upper resistance line, the asset is undergoing a healthy correction movement. This pull-back is guiding the price back towards a significant confluence of support, where the ascending support line of the channel converges with the horizontal support zone near the 3485 current support level. The primary working hypothesis is a long scenario, based on the expectation that buyers will defend this area and maintain the integrity of the uptrend. A confirmed bounce from this dynamic support would signal the end of the correction and the resumption of the primary bullish trend. Therefore, the TP is logically placed at 3610 points, representing a new structural high and a measured objective for the next impulsive wave. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
NZDCAD – Range Resistance in Play!📌 NZDCAD has been moving within a clear range structure between support and resistance zones on the 1H timeframe.
Price is now approaching the upper resistance area, where sellers have consistently stepped in to cap bullish momentum.
If this level holds, we could see a bearish reversal, driving price back toward the support zone near the lower boundary of the range.
This setup offers a classic opportunity to trade the swing from resistance back into support.
⚠️ Always remember: patience pays. Let the market come to you.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Its Non-Farm: How much will ES Move?Hi all - Happy Non-Farm Friday!
I haven't done this in a while and thought it might be helpful to share my process for estimating the size of the move that we may get on ES after the Non-Farm Payrolls data is released.
I'm not trying to make a prediction on direction here - but more understand where the boundaries could be so I can determine how to trade this (what trading tool I can pull out of my box) once the announcement comes out.
Hope it helps and please let me know if you find it useful and I'll create more posts .
Cheers,
Jeff
BTC: 112,681 in sight, 115.3k if breakout holds__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
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BTC bounced back above the weekly pivot 111,965 after a dip below 110k and is hovering near 112.2k, still trapped inside the 104k–116k corridor. Short-term momentum is positive but capped by a 4H/6H “Pivot High.”
Momentum: Bullish 📈 in the short term within a broader range; buyers defend 111,965 but meet supply at 112,681.
Key levels:
- Resistances (4H/6H → 1D): 112,681 (240 PH), 115,300 (720 PH), 124,277 (D PH, distant extension).
- Supports (4H → 1D): 111,965 (W PH turned support), 109,905 (240 PL), 107,300 (cluster PL).
Volumes: Normal on HTF; notable 1H spike during the recent push.
Multi-timeframe signals: ST (15m–1H) bullish; mid TF (2H–6H) still corrective; HTF (12H–1D) constructive → bias improves if 112,681 flips to support.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: VENTE (moderate risk-off) — it contradicts the intraday bounce and can cap extensions without a catalyst.
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Trading Playbook
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The market is a “range with a bullish lean”: trade conditional entries, confirm breakouts, and keep stops tight.
Global bias: Neutral Buy with key invalidation below 109,900 (loss of the 240 PL base).
Opportunities:
- Continuation long: break & retest of 112,681 to target 114.0k then 115.3k.
- Defensive long: clean pullback holding 111,965 (1H higher low) to re-test 112,681.
- Tactical short: clear rejection at 112.68–113.0k (bearish 4H candle) to 112.0k then 111.0k/109.9k.
Risk zones / invalidations:
- 4H–12H close below 111,965 reopens 110k then 109.9k.
- A reclaim above 115,300 invalidates the mid‑TF bearish structure and unlocks 120–124k.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
- FOMC: September remains “live”; a cut is increasingly priced — supportive for risk if confirmed.
- NFP/Unemployment: a soft print would fuel risk-on and breakout follow‑throughs.
- Crypto liquidity: fresh $2B USDT mint + cross‑chain reallocations — deeper books if 112,681 breaks.
Action plan:
- Long (break & retest 112,681): Entry 112.70–112.85k / Stop <111.90k / TP1 114.0k, TP2 115.3k, TP3 120.0k / R:R ~1.8R to 3R.
- Short (rejection 112.68–113.0k): Entry 112.7–112.9k / Stop >113.1k / TP1 112.0k, TP2 111.0k, TP3 109.9k / R:R ~1.2R to 2.5R.
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
__________________________________________________________________________________
This is a “range‑recovery” alignment: ST drives, mid TFs resist, HTFs remain supportive.
1D/12H: Constructive above 111,965; a clean move through 112,681 sets up a test of 115,300 (major range ceiling).
6H/4H/2H: Still printing a “lower high” under 115.3k; 112,681 is the rotation hinge — rejections = 112.0k/111,965 retests.
1H/30m/15m: Bullish momentum with elevated 1H volumes; needs solid close/retest above 112,681 to avoid a fakeout.
Key divergences/confluences: ST strength + HTF support vs Risk On / Risk Off Indicator in VENTE and mid‑TF corrective tone → prioritize confirmed flips at 112,681.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro is leaning toward monetary easing while stablecoin liquidity expands — a supportive backdrop if technical levels confirm.
Macro events: Fed keeps September “live” with a cut increasingly priced; a soft NFP would add risk-on fuel; oil softens and gold appetite stays firm — near‑term inflation pressure eases.
Bitcoin analysis: Price ~111.5–112k with short‑squeeze risk if momentum continues; BTC spot ETF flows remain flat vs improving ETH — implying measured BTC spot demand but reactive to technical breaks.
On-chain data: +$2B USDT minted and cross‑chain shifts → deeper market depth; URPD/accumulation in 108–116k matches the range; neutral funding = fragile momentum.
Expected impact: A dovish follow‑through (cut pricing + soft jobs) supports the “Neutral Buy” toward 115.3k; risk‑off shocks would pressure 111,965/109,9k.
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Key Takeaways
__________________________________________________________________________________
Range market with a recovery bias as long as 111,965 holds and 112,681 turns into support.
- Overall trend: short‑term bullish/neutral inside the 104k–116k range.
- Most relevant setup: confirmed breakout above 112,681 targeting 115.3k.
- One key macro factor: growing odds of a September Fed cut boost risk appetite.
Stay disciplined: trade confirmation, not anticipation, and respect stops. ⚠️
Fade 112k, buy 109.5/108k on signals__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC is consolidating mid‑range within 104k–116k after a clean rejection below the weekly pivot high (~112k). Intraday momentum tilts bearish while higher timeframes remain range‑bound.
Momentum: 📉 Bearish within a range — sellers active at 111.95–112.15, defensive bids lower.
Key levels:
• Resistances (HTF/MTF) : 111.95–112.15 (weekly), 113.5–114.0 (MTF), 115.5 (gate before 118k/121k).
• Supports (HTF/MTF) : 110.2–110.5 (MTF), 109.3–109.8 (MTF), 107.9–108.1 (HTF).
Volumes: Overall normal; moderate pickup on 1H retests of range edges.
Multi-timeframe signals: 2H–6H point Down; 12H–1D more neutral; LTF (15–30m) show range rebounds — consistent with selling 112k rejections and tactical buys at 109.3–109.8 / 107.9–108.1.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: SELL (mild risk‑off) — aligns with the bearish bias as long as 112k caps price.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Trading Playbook
__________________________________________________________________________________
In a range with MTF selling pressure, favor sell‑the‑rip and defensive buys on absorption. 🎯
Global bias: NEUTRAL SELL below 112k; key invalidation on a strong close >112.5k.
Opportunities:
• Tactical sell : Fade 111.95–112.15 on signal; target 110.5 then 109.6. (Stop >112.5)
• Defensive buy : Bid 109.3–109.8 on wick/absorption; target 111.1 then 111.9. (Stop <109.3)
• Breakout buy : Only above 112.5 on confirmed retest; target 114.0 then 115.5. (Stop ≈112.0)
Risk zones / invalidations:
• A reclaim >112.5 invalidates the sell bias and opens 114k–116k.
• A clean break <109.3 exposes 108.0 then 106.8/104k.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
• Fed: Waller favors a cut vs Kashkari cautious; Beige Book “little change” — dovish tone would favor 112k/114k tests.
• US labor: ADP/claims/ISM Services today — strong surprises can trigger a break of the 110.3–111.3 micro‑range.
• Inflation mix: Oil <$60 (disinflation) but US tariff risks linger — likely keeps us ranging until 114k–116k is reclaimed.
Action plan:
• Short 112k rejection : Entry 111.95–112.15 / Stop 112.6 / TP1 110.5, TP2 109.6, TP3 108.0 → R/R ≈ 2.0–3.0.
• Defensive long 109.5 : Entry 109.3–109.8 / Stop 109.2 / TP1 111.1, TP2 111.9, TP3 112.5 → R/R ≈ 2.0–2.5.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Insights
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HTFs are range‑bound while MTFs (2H–6H) drift lower; LTFs attempt technical rebounds.
1D/12H: Range 104k–116k intact; 111.95–112.15 capping; 107.9–108.1 as base — below 112k, risk skew toward 110.5 then 109.5.
6H/4H/2H: Lower highs in place; prefer selling retests 111.3–111.6 and 111.95–112.15 toward 110.5/109.5.
1H/30m/15m: Micro‑range 110.3–111.3; long scalps from 110.3–110.6 with confirmation ; moderate volume pickup on edge retests.
Key divergences/confluences: Mild risk‑off + MTF Down = bearish confluence below 112k; absence of extreme volume tempers squeeze risk until 114k–116k triggers.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro is dovish‑but‑uncertain while on‑chain points to a digestion range — a setup favoring tactics over trends.
Macro events: Fed split (Waller pro‑cut, Kashkari cautious), Beige Book steady; JOLTS down with ADP/claims/ISM due — directional volatility risk. Oil <$60 and soft Swiss CPI = disinflation, but US tariffs keep inflation risks alive.
Bitcoin analysis: Broke below daily Ichimoku and retested as resistance; hesitation under a double‑top neckline; 30‑day realized vol low = uncertainty without panic. US spot ETF net inflows +$300.5M (Sept 3) with muted price response.
On-chain data: Accumulation 108k–116k (URPD) and lost high cost‑basis → 104.1k–114.3k corridor; STH ~60% in profit = fragile; neutral funding and slowing ETF intake = capped momentum.
Expected impact: While 112k isn’t reclaimed with volume, bias stays NEUTRAL SELL ; above 114k–116k, risk‑on resumes.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Key Takeaways
__________________________________________________________________________________
A controlled range persists with an active 112k ceiling and selective dip‑bidding lower.
- Overall trend: 📉 tactical bearish within a HTF range.
- Top setup: Fade 111.95–112.15 with invalidation >112.5 and targets 110.5/109.6/108.0.
- Macro key: Fed‑lean dovish but labor/ISM data could swing momentum toward 112k or down to 109.5.
Stay disciplined: trade the range, protect stops, and let closes above 112.5 and 114–116k speak. 🧭
Ethereum 4H Range As we approach nearly a month in the range from $4000-4800 it looks like ETH is making a move once again.
Previously once hitting $4800 price gradually sold off back towards range low creating a bearish trendline, once the price broken above that level a rapid move up to range high within two candles.
Now looking at the chart we have a similar setup, strong breakout from the bearish trendline up into midpoint. Bitcoin currently retesting a key level of $112,000, should BTC flip this level I could see alts getting the greenlight to move up and Ethereum up to the highs.
Should BTC reject from $112,000 it makes sense that ETH range midpoint would be strong resistance, rejection could lead to a range low retest. Anything else that isn't either range high, range low or midpoint is noise and for me no action required, no need to over complicate it.
EURUSD: Price Exit from Pennant and DropHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Euro setup.
Market Analysis
From a broader perspective, the price has been consolidating in a wide range between the 1.1600 support level and the 1.1720 resistance level. This extended period of balance has now tightened, leading to the current, more compressed pattern where a significant move is becoming more likely.
Currently, the price action is coiling within a pennant pattern. This compression of volatility suggests that energy is building for a breakout. The price is now trading very close to the apex of this pennant, testing the upper boundary near the major horizontal Resistance Zone.
My Scenario & Strategy
While a breakout from a pennant might seem likely, the overhead resistance at the 1.1720 level is historically significant. I'm watching for a situation where the market fakes a move to the upside to trap optimistic buyers before revealing its true intention.
Specifically, I'm watching for a brief dip, followed by a rally that pushes the price just above the pennant's resistance line and into the 1.1720 - 1.1730 resistance area. The key signal would be a swift and forceful rejection from this area, pushing the price back below the breakout point. And the primary target for the resulting decline is the 1.1600 level, which aligns with the major horizontal support zone.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Palantir - The Box Calls The ShotsI recently posted a palatir chart with clean levels of where I'd look to DCA. While those dip-buy levels can easily be used to trade the name, I think it would also help to be mindful of the box ranges as we trade into them. As you'll see, Palantir loves to play with box as much as I do.
If you are familiar with how to trade box set-ups, you can take advantage immediately; otherwise, you may want to do some research on how to trade these.
~The Villain
Ripple may bounce up from buyer zone to top part of rangeHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Ripple. The market for Ripple has undergone a significant structural shift, with the prior upward channel giving way to a new phase of horizontal consolidation following a decisive breakdown. This event signaled a pause in the strong bullish momentum and established a new trading range, with the major buyer zone around the 2.9525 support level now acting as the foundational floor for the price. After the initial drop, the price has been trading within this new, more contained range, undergoing a series of corrective movements. Currently, the asset is in another downward leg, heading towards the critical buyer zone for what could be a decisive test of this support. The primary working hypothesis is a long scenario, based on the expectation that demand will overcome supply within this 2.9525 - 2.9000 area. A confirmed and strong rebound from this key support would indicate that the corrective phase is over and that buyers are ready to initiate a new rotation to the upside. Therefore, the TP for this range-based play is logically set at the 3.1830 level. This target corresponds with the top of the current consolidation range and represents the most probable objective for a bullish swing originating from the established support base. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.






















