Algo's Logic: Why price moves ''crazy'' with red folder news?WHY PRICE MOVES LIKE THIS
The market is not a chaotic auction of buyers and sellers seeking fair value; it is a highly engineered delivery system designed to seek and destroy liquidity. The current consolidation you see is not indecision; it is a 'Liquidity Coil'. The algorithm is purposefully compressing price action ahead of the 'Red Folder' events to engineer a 'Straddle Inducement'.
By keeping the range tight, the Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) encourages retail traders to place tight buy-stops above the range and tight sell-stops below it. This creates two massive pools of liquidity—fuel for the machine. The news event is not the cause of the move; it is the 'Key' that unlocks this volatility. The initial move is almost always a 'Judas Swing'—a fraudulent manipulation designed to trigger one side of these stops (usually the sell-stops below) to harvest the necessary liquidity to fuel the *real* move in the opposite direction. We do not trade the news; we trade the algorithmic reaction to the liquidity harvest.
THE THESIS
The algorithm is currently in a 'Suspended State' of pre-event accumulation utilizing the impending volatility of the Macro Data Injection to engineer a classic 'Judas Swing' manipulation. The narrative is strictly governed by the 'Seek and Destroy' protocol: The market will utilize the news release to aggressively harvest the internal Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) resting below the 25,550.00 shelf to fuel the terminal expansion towards the external Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) at 25,900.00.
THE EXECUTION VECTOR
Entry: 25,525.00 (Buy Limit / Post-News Reclaim)
Stop loss: 25,380.00 (145.00 points)
Take profit: 25,950.00 (425.00 points)
Risk to reward ratio: 2.93R
THE CAUSAL RATIONALE
The Pre-News Narrative (The Trap)
Current price action (25,650.00) is a 'Volatility Compression' zone. The algorithm is holding price in a narrow range. Do not trade the drift. The drift is the bait. The algorithm is waiting for the 08:30 AM / 10:00 AM timestamp to unlock the high-velocity engine. The 'Red Folders' are simply the authorized time windows for the Market Makers to reprice the asset.
The News Event (The Judas Swing)
Upon the data release, expect an immediate, violent displacement. The highest probability vector is a 'False Bearish Breakout' (The Judas Goat). The algorithm will likely spike price DOWN into the 25,550.00 - 25,500.00 region. This serves two purposes:
1. Trigger the sell-stops of the overnight longs.
2. Induce breakout sellers to provide the necessary Buy-Side liquidity for the Smart Money to fill their long orders at a discount.
The Post-News Expansion (The Real Move)
Once the SSL is harvested and the 25,500.00 region (Bullish Order Block / FVG) is mitigated, look for an impulsive reclaim of the 25,600.00 level. This 'Sponsorship' signal confirms that the low is in, and the algorithm will switch to a 'Low Resistance Liquidity Run' targeting the clean highs at 25,900.00.
THE INVALIDATION (THE OMEGA POINT)
The bullish news model is ontologically corrupted if the news candle displaces below 25,380.00 and *sustains* acceptance there (15-minute close). A simple wick is not invalidation; it is a feature. But a closure below this level implies the macro data has triggered a 'Risk-Off' regime shift, targeting deeper discount arrays at 25,000.00.
KEY TRAJECTORY WAYPOINTS
Target 1: 25,750.00 | Type: Equilibrium / Initial Rebound | Probability: 90%
Target 2: 25,900.00 | Type: External Buy-Side Liquidity | Probability: 75%
Target 3: 26,100.00 | Type: Blue Sky Expansion | Probability: 40%
THE SHADOW REALITY
A 30% probability exists for the 'Bull Trap' scenario. In this reality, the news spikes price UP first into 25,850.00. If the first move is UP, fade it. The algorithm rarely gives the true move first during high-impact news.
