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Santa Claus Rally — Does It Still Work?The Santa Claus Rally is a well-known seasonal effect. Looking at the last 25 years, the S&P 500 shows an average gain of ~0.54% over the 5 business days starting on December 29. However, the effect weakens significantly in recent periods: Last 10 years: ~0.27%, already close to the average weekly P&L of the S&P 500 Last 5 years: ~-0.22% This suggests the Santa Rally has deteriorated over time. What used to be a strong seasonal tendency now appears less reliable, especially in modern market regimes. Seasonality provides useful historical context, but it should not be used as a standalone trading signal.
SP:SPX
by QuantNomad
Santa’s Not the Only One Making a List: How Yours Should LookRemember the Trading Journal article we posted back in January? It’s time to review that. 🎄 The Year-End Ritual Traders Love to Avoid December is a beautiful time of year — especially if you’re a trader taking stock of a full year of wins, lessons, and the kind of experience you simply can’t get from any textbook. While most people are making holiday wish lists, you can make something far more valuable: a year-end audit of your own performance. Before you look into the story of 2026, you should review your story of 2025 — and decide which chapters deserve a sequel. 🧾 1. Start With the Big Picture: Your P&L Story Traders love to zoom into charts, but this review starts with a wide-angle lens. Open your profit-and-loss statement (the whole thing) and ask yourself what story it tells. Not: “Did I make money?” But: • Where and when did I make money? • How consistently did I make money? • Where and when did I lose money? Was your year a smooth trend or a choppy range? Did profits arrive steadily in a diversified low-risk manner or in one giant lucky month that’s now carrying the annual narrative on its back? How many trades on average did you open in any given month? Were you slammed by economic data or actually traded events successfully? If your P&L looks like Mount Everest followed by a ski slope, that’s a clue. If it looks like a gentle staircase, that’s another. An honest P&L audit tells you who you actually are as a trader, not who you strive to be. 📆 2. Month-by-Month: Your Market Seasons Markets have seasons, and so do traders. This is where you break your year into 12 chapters and ask: • Which months were your strongest? • Which months were your weakest? • Did your performance correlate with volatility? • Did you trade better in calm markets or turbulent ones? • Did a single macro theme carry your results? Most traders discover they perform better in certain environments — trending markets, earnings season , AI mania, crypto volatility — and worse in others. Knowing your seasonality helps you (a) avoid forcing trades in tough conditions and (b) push harder when the market aligns with your natural rhythm. For example, you don’t trade aggressively in a month where your data says you tend to perform poorly. 📈 3. Where You Actually Traded Every trader has a version of themselves in their head: “I trade mostly macro FX,” or “I’m an equities person,” or “I invest in crypto but only real-use cases.” But your year-end list should reflect actual activity, not self-depiction. Pop open your books and find out: • Which asset classes did you trade the most? • Did your biggest wins come from the same place as your biggest losses? • Did you over-concentrate on a theme (AI leaders)? FX majors? Meme-adjacent microcaps? • Did diversification help or were you secretly just running one giant tech exposure? If 80% of your profits came from one market, that’s a strength, but also a dependency. If 80% of your losses came from one market, that’s more of a warning than a lesson. Knowing where you think and where you sink is the foundation of your 2026 positioning. 💸 4. Identify Your Wins and Pain Points Every trader has signature wins and signature wounds. Look into yours and try to figure out why they happened. • Were they disciplined trades? • Or were they lucky timing in Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , or FX:USDJPY ? • Were they tied to a setup you can reproduce in 2026? • Or do they fall under “I shouldn’t count on that again”? Then look at your largest losses: • Were they concentrated? • Repeated? • Emotional? • Spread across many small trades or a few oversized ones? Think of your setbacks as valuable inputs for your 2026 strategy. 🧭 5. Turn Insight Into Strategy for 2026 Now comes the true purpose of the list: How will you position for the new year based on what you learned? Consider: • Which asset classes earned the right to your attention in 2026? • Which ones should you scale down or eliminate? • How concentrated should you allow your positions to get? • Are you better as a trend trader, a mean-reverter, a news trader? • Which months or conditions will you push hardest? • Where will you intentionally step back? 🎁 The Real Gift of the Year Is Reflection Santa may have a list of who's naughty and nice, but yours is better because it tells you what kind of trader you've become, and what kind you’re aiming to be. A year-end audit is among the closest things traders have to compounding wisdom. You can’t control the 2026 market (especially with a new Fed chair stepping in) — but you can control how prepared you are for it. And that preparation begins with a list only you can make. Not just of trades and profits, but of patterns. Make your list. Read it twice. Think about it. And step into 2026 trading like someone who knows themselves. Off to you : Are you ready to look back into what you did this year and learn the harsh truths and valuable lessons? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Education
by TradingView
17
Crocs | CROX | Long at $98.00If the overall/long-term upward momentum continues, Crocs NASDAQ:CROX may be nearing bounce territory at $98 as it reaches the bottom of my selected historical simple moving average (SMA). While there may be a near-term downtrend to close out a few price gaps ($80s-$90s) below the current price, the stock looks incredibly poised for an upward move as the Santa Claus rally nears. Fundamentally, a P/E of 7x, low debt, and a low float (56M) with 7% short interest all works in the favor for this stock/company. Thus, at $98, NASDAQ:CROX is in a personal buy zone. Target #1 = $110 Target #2 = $125 Target #3 = $135 Target #4 = $155 (long-term)
NASDAQ:CROXLong
by WorthlessViews
Giveaway: Happy Holidays & Merry Christmas!It's that time of year where we can openly say (without sounding too cringe) how thankful we are to have you. Your unwavering support, charting enthusiasm, and shared passion for the markets is what drives us. You've been the heartbeat of our work and community. As we close the book on another year of trading, we’re reminded that it’s not just the numbers or the record highs — it’s you that makes this journey worthwhile. Happy Holidays from all of us at TradingView! May your holidays be filled with warmth, laughter, and just the right amount of volatility to keep things exciting. 🥂📈 Wishing you a breakout year ahead, fewer false signals, and plenty of wins — on and off the charts. 🥁 And now... 🥁 🎁 THE GIVEAWAY 🎁 Who: 🏆 THREE LUCKY WINNERS 🏆 walk away with prizes What: 🚀 PREMIUM PLAN 🚀 for a full year When: ⏳ JANUARY 3 ⏳ we announce the winners To participate, leave a comment under this Idea, answering the two-part question: 1️⃣ What was your best trade this year? 2️⃣ What is your trading goal for 2025? And now follow these rules: 1️⃣ Like this Idea 2️⃣ Follow our official account Note: 💡 You can only participate once — three lucky winners will be picked randomly by the TradingView Santa to win a Premium plan for one year. Watch this space — announcing the winners on January 3 !
by TradingView
450
BTC - Christmas Theme Analysis 🎄Hello TradingView Family, this is Richard, and I want to wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you enjoy this Christmas Theme Idea. After acquiring the 🎁Gifts at 16,000 and breaking above the 🎄Christmas Tree neckline resistance at 30,000, 🎅Santa Claus has been heading North towards the previous all-time-high ⭐️Star. 📈 BTC is approaching the 48,000 - 50,000 resistance / supply zone. For the bulls to remain in control and push towards the all-time high, a break above the 50,000 level is required. 📉 Meanwhile, there is still a possibility that BTC may reject the 48,000 resistance and undergo one more bearish correction, reaching the 30,000 - 32,000 support before the next upward impulse begins. Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? Why and when? 📚 Always adhere to your trading plan, including entry points, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! Merry Christmas, Everyone! 🎄 ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
100
New Year with GazpromGazprom is always a good hedging opportunity. We are looking forward to develop a strategy to hedge risks with this stock to invest in their peers and relatives for the balanced stock portfolio. Our favourite volatility indicators show quite harbour for the Gazprom Stock and ask for help about whether Gazprom will or will not be outrun Company to develop a good risk/opportunity profile to win the Santa-Claus Rally 2023. Wee see Gazprom Stock in the corridor of 189,7 Rubles as upper case and 150,6 as a lower cage. We wish you happy holidays and a good deed.
RUS:GAZP
by UnknownUnicorn462803
Merry Christmas, brothers and sisters!❄️ Hey traders, SignalProvider teams wishes you a Merry Christmas! "At its best, Christmas is a mirror in which we see reflected the very best life can be. Where we see ourselves moved by generosity, inspired by hope and uplifted by love, not only for ourselves but for the whole evolving universe." May the magic of the Christmas season fill your home with joy and peace. Sending lots of love to your family, and looking forward to see you with us next trading year. Take care of yourselves and stay safe.💙
OANDA:BTCUSDLong
by SignalProvider
3
Merry Christmas, dear followers!🌲 To a joyful present and a well-remembered past! Our trading team raises a glass to you this Christmas all the way from TradingView. The light of the Christmas star to you, The warmth of home and hearth to you, The cheer and goodwill of friends to you, The joy of a thousand angels to you, The love of the Son, And God's peace to you. Wishing you a joyous Christmas and a prosperous New Year.🎁 Christmas holidays Trading vacation winter Santa gift christmastree marvel greeting wish newyear celebration
Long
by ProSignalsFx
5
We wish you a Merry Christmas!🌟 Dear traders, This year we faced a lot of obstacles and problems. For many, this year was phenomenally hard. There is a famous quote by Marcus Aurelius “The impediment to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way.” In any obstacle, there is an opportunity. What we should be doing, we should look at every obstacle that we face as an opportunity for us to grow and to make us stronger so that we can turn that into an opportunity. Every obstacle is the way forward. I wish you all a lot of opportunities next year. Merry Christmas!!!🌟 Christmas holidays Trading vacation winter Santa gift christmastree marvel greeting wish newyear celebration
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TopTradingSignals
8
Good day to sell STUDIO SANTA CLAUSAfter the stock of Santa Claus studio approaches the vwap indicator from the lower side, and it is also approaching the resistance from the lower side, so it is difficult to break to the upside despite the absence of volume so there are two possibilities: + 30% if it breaks upward there will be an explosion of STUDIO SANTA CLAUS +70% if it renounced to a downward trend it will be a good chance to sell so open your wallets it's a good chance, open your wallets GOOD LUCK
2
by MOHAMEDOUCHAIB