SAP SE – Wave 3 Macro Rally in Progress🚀 SAP SE – Wave 3 Macro Rally in Progress | Fibonacci Targets & Institutional Accumulation in Play 💼
📅 Timeframe : 3W (Macro Outlook)
📍 Current Price: 238.85
🎯 Wave 3 Target: ~1743 (2.618 Fibonacci Extension)
📊 Wave Structure & Elliott Theory
SAP SE appears to be mid-way through a major Elliott Wave cycle , where:
Wave 1 formed during the late 90s tech boom 📈
Wave 2 brought a deep correction post-2000 crash, respecting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement
Wave 3 now underway, projected toward the 2.618 extension at ~1743 , suggesting a strong impulsive leg fueled by fundamentals and institutional accumulation
Wave 4 and 5 to come, but we are early in the Wave 3 journey – historically the most powerful wave in terms of price growth and investor sentiment ⚡
🧠 Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
✅ Reaccumulation Range: After an extended period of sideways price action (2001–2019), the chart shows clear signs of Smart Money accumulation – long-term positioning by institutions.
📈 Break of Structure (BOS): Clean break above prior macro highs indicates the end of reaccumulation and the start of a markup phase . This aligns with the SMC concept of entering trades after BOS and mitigation of supply zones.
📦 Liquidity Grab: Previous dips served to collect liquidity before major impulsive moves – a classic institutional playbook.
📐 Fibonacci Confluence
🔹 0.5 Retracement from Wave 1 → Wave 2 provided a textbook correction
🔹 2.618 Extension from Wave 1–2 projects a long-term Wave 3 target of ~1743 , giving this move macro-level significance
🔹 No visible divergence yet – momentum is supporting continuation 🌀
🔎 Price Action
Higher Highs & Higher Lows structure confirmed on multi-year view 📶
Strong bullish candles breaking historical resistances
No major supply zones overhead on the macro chart until much higher levels – suggests room for exponential upside
Pullbacks remain shallow, indicating strong buy-side pressure
🧾 Fundamental Outlook
SAP SE is Europe’s largest software company and a global ERP leader. It’s undergoing a digital transformation into cloud-based SaaS, improving recurring revenue and margins. 💻☁️
Strong balance sheet
Growing enterprise customer base
Cloud revenue growing YoY
Excellent positioning in AI and digital infrastructure themes going forward 🔮
Fundamentals support a multi-year bullish cycle , aligning perfectly with the current Wave 3 structure.
📌 Conclusion:
SAP is entering a potentially parabolic phase as part of a long-term Wave 3 impulse, supported by:
📈 Elliott Wave alignment
🔁 Institutional reaccumulation (SMC)
🔍 Strong technical structure & price action
📐 Fibonacci confluence
💼 Solid fundamental trajectory
As long as price holds above previous structure highs and no macroeconomic shock disrupts the tech cycle, SAP could be heading for an exponential breakout over the coming years.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Always manage risk and use proper position sizing. 🛡️
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Sapse
SAP SE Reported Positive Increase in Expected RevenueSAP SE ( XETR:SAP ), the largest software company in Europe, has reported a significant expected revenue increase from cloud services in the next year. SAP's current cloud backlog, which is an indicator of revenue to be booked within the next 12 months, has increased by 28% at constant currencies to €14.2 billion ($15.2 billion). This represents the fastest growth on record for the Walldorf-based software giant, resulting in a surge in the company's stock price.
XETR:SAP has been focused on migrating its customers from legacy on-premise software to the cloud, where it offers business AI services to sweeten the deal. The company's cloud offering has generated growth in excess of 30% for nine quarters in a row, thanks in part to the growing trend of incorporating AI tools into virtually all of its products. The company has invested in startups Aleph Alpha GmbH, Anthropic PBC, and Cohere as part of its efforts to incorporate AI into its portfolio.
SAP's success in cloud technology and AI has put it ahead of its US software peers, which are experiencing slowing trends. The company's accelerating growth in the current cloud backlog highlights good demand across its cloud portfolio and demonstrates that the advent of AI has propelled the story of the transformation of the cloud, according to the company's Chief Financial Officer, Dominik Asam.
SAP's restructuring program, which was announced in January, has had a significant impact on the company's operating profit to International Financial Reporting Standards. The program resulted in a loss of €787 million for the period due to a €2.2 billion provision related to the restructuring program. The results are the company's first to include share-based compensation expenses in its non-IFRS report, which weighed on non-IFRS operating profit, resulting in €1.53 billion in the period, compared to estimates of €1.7 billion.
SAP's CEO, Christian Klein, expressed confidence that the company would achieve its goals for the year, citing the powerful growth drivers in place, which include business AI, cross-selling across the cloud portfolio, and winning new customers, particularly in the midmarket. Overall, the first quarter results show that SAP is off to a great start in 2024.
SAP SE: A Mid- to Long-Term InvestmentSAP SE: A Mid- to Long-Term Investment
SAP SE
SAP SE is a German multinational software corporation that develops enterprise software. It is the world's largest independent software vendor by revenue. SAP's products are used by businesses of all sizes in over 180 countries.
Capitalization SAP's market capitalization is approximately $170 billion. The company is listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange.
Current and Future Projects SAP is currently investing heavily in cloud computing and artificial intelligence. The company's cloud revenue is growing rapidly, and it is developing new products and services that use artificial intelligence to automate business processes and improve decision-making.
Some of SAP's current and future projects include:
SAP S/4HANA Cloud: This is SAP's flagship cloud-based enterprise resource planning (ERP) system. It is designed to help businesses of all sizes transform their operations and become more agile.
SAP Leonardo: This is SAP's suite of artificial intelligence (AI) solutions. It helps businesses to automate processes, improve decision-making, and make better use of data.
SAP Business Network: This is SAP's platform for connecting businesses with their customers, suppliers, and partners. It helps businesses to collaborate more effectively and improve their supply chain efficiency.
Stock Rating
I would rate SAP shares as a Strong Buy for the mid- to long-term. The company has a strong track record of financial performance, growth opportunities, and a strong brand.
It is also well-positioned to benefit from the growth of the cloud computing and artificial intelligence markets. However, there are some risks to consider before investing in SAP shares. These include:
Competition: SAP faces competition from other large enterprise software companies, such as Oracle and Microsoft.
Technology risk: SAP's business depends on its software products. If the company is not able to keep up with the latest technologies, it could lose market share to its competitors.
Geopolitical risk: SAP operates in many countries around the world. If there is a political crisis in any of these countries, it could disrupt the company's operations and its share price.
Overall, I believe that SAP shares are a good investment for investors who are looking for a company with a strong track record of financial performance, growth opportunities, and a strong brand. However, investors should be aware of the risks associated with investing in enterprise software stocks.
Conclusion SAP is a well-established company with a strong track record of financial performance. It is also well-positioned to benefit from the growth of the cloud computing and artificial intelligence markets. I believe that SAP shares are a good investment for the mid- to long-term. However, investors should be aware of the risks associated with investing in enterprise software stocks.
Risk Warning
Trading stocks and options is a risky activity and can result in losses. You should only trade if you understand the risks involved and are comfortable with the potential for losses.
Rating: Strong Buy
Risk Disclaimer!
The article and the data is for general information use only, not advice!
The Trade Academy Team - The Professional Trader
Risk Disclaimer!
General Risk Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. It is important that you understand how Trading and Investing on the stock exchange works and that you consider whether you can afford the high risk of loss.
SAP is drainign itself. SAPShort term outlook.
Bearish outlook for gains at 128, then 119. Invalidation at 163.
Not as bad as Tesla, but way too overinflated in short.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!