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Setup

ES (SPX) Analyses for Thu, Sep 11 (CPI day)What matters tomorrow (fundamentals) CPI (Aug) at 8:30 ET — the BLS schedule shows the August CPI release Thu Sep 11, 08:30 ET. This is the day’s primary driver. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 ET — standard Thursday release; calendars show the event scheduled for Sep 11 at 08:30 ET. Treasury 30-yr bond auction — $22B long-bond sale Thursday (typically 13:00 ET). This can move yields into the NY afternoon and spill into equities. Context into the print: PPI (Aug) was released today (Sep 10); YoY +2.6% per data trackers/BLS release, keeping focus on CPI for confirmation. Markets are leaning toward a Fed cut at next week’s meeting. I’m using your 1D / 4H / 1H. Trend: Uptrend intact on 1D; price sits just beneath a “weak-high / premium” supply band. (1D shows fib extensions near ~6705 (1.272) and ~6799 (1.618) as far targets, not base-case for tomorrow.) 4H: Recent push into a red supply band then pullback; mid-range equilibrium roughly ~6,44x–6,45x. 1H: Resistance zone ~6,558–6,565 (your “Weak High” band). Prior highs around ~6,536–6,540 act as local pivot/PMH; below that, demand/discount blocks stack ~6,50x → 6,46x–6,44x. Scenario A — Disinflationary/soft CPI (yields down) Likely path: Early sell-side sweep into 6,51x → 6,49x discount → bullish MSS. Entry: Buy the 1–5m PD-array in discount after displacement. Targets: 6,536–6,540 → 6,558–6,565 (weak-high). Leave runner toward 6,57x–6,58x only if order-flow stays bid. Invalidation: 1–5m structure loses 6,49x and cannot reclaim. Scenario B — Hot CPI (yields up) Likely path: Buy-side sweep through 6,558–6,565 → failure → bearish MSS back below the band. Entry: Short premium PD-array after displacement down. Targets: 6,536–6,540 → 6,51x, stretch 6,49x then 6,46x–6,44x if momentum accelerates. Invalidation: Acceptance back above 6,565 with bullish structure. Projections: ES futures are anticipated to respond within a 5-15 minute window following the 8:30 AM release, with intraday movements likely intensified by algorithmic trading and stop-hunting activities. Historical analysis of the past 6 CPI events indicates an average end-of-day ES move of approximately +0.76% in response to ±0.1% deviations from forecasts. The prevailing volatility suggests that implied moves, derived from options data, are forecasting a swing of around 0.5-1% (equivalent to ±30-60 points from current levels), though actual market responses have been known to exceed these expectations in the event of surprises. In the pre-release phase, spanning overnight to pre-market hours (approximately 4:00-9:30 AM ET), market participants are likely to observe a consolidation or mild upward bias within a range of 6480-6575, building upon today’s record highs. The light trading volume may lead to false breakouts around critical levels. Traders are currently positioning for a "failed breakdown" pattern, wherein an initial dip below recent lows could trigger stop-loss orders, followed by a swift reversal higher if market sentiment remains intact. As the clock strikes 8:30 AM ET, high volatility is expected, with the potential for a 20-40 point gap open or sharp spike. A common occurrence is an initial downside flush aimed at testing liquidity (for instance, dipping below 6500) before a definitive market direction is established. Whipsaw action is likely as news headlines emerge, with particular focus on the core CPI data, which will be pivotal for determining sustained market trends. Good Luck Everyone!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
HG - Copper Setting Up For A Long Opprtunity At Extreme📊 Fundamentals first: - Short-term: The copper market is turbulent—marked by sharp price spikes, crashes, and global shifts in stock levels. - Medium-term: Despite forecasted surpluses from ICSG, technology innovations and steady demand (especially from China and green sectors) may underpin prices. - U.S. risk factor: The tariffs remain a major wildcard, likely restructuring trade flows, increasing domestic input costs, and distorting global price differentials. 📈 Now the Chart: P5/0 at the U-MLH marked the end, and price dropped into the void. Now, at the L-MLH we see support has built up. The momentum we see now will probably lead in a pullback before the potential massive run-up to the Centerline. 💡 If the trading God gives me a pullback, I am willingly risk my 0.5% in this trade to make at least 4x more. 🦊 Happy new week to all §8-)
COMEX:HG1!Long
by HowToChart
ES1! — Analyses (Sep 10) - Key Zones SeyupsHTF remains bullish into a labeled weak‑high cluster. Tomorrow’s path likely pivots around 6523–6527 (ONH/PDH cluster). Two A++ plays only after event‑led volatility prints structure: Two possibilities: Continuation LONG on acceptance > 6537 → 6564/6583. Fade SHORT on sweep into 6542–6548 + 5m and 15m bearish confirmation → 6526/6510/6502. SMT check with NQ is required. Continuation LONG (A++) — “Acceptance > 6537” Sweep → 5m MSS up → 5m close above 6537 → retest 6531–6533 (derived 5m OB/FVG at prior close shelf) for entry. Entry: 6532 ±1. SL: 6524 (structure; back inside PDH/ONH cluster). • TP1: 6564.25 (1H 1.272) → ~+32.3 pts ≈ 4.0R. • TP2: 6583.50 (1H 1.618) → ~+51.5 pts ≈ 6.4R. • TP3: 6668+ (4H fib region) — runner; trail by 15m/30m closes. Management: Scale ½ at TP1; move to BE only after a 5m close through TP1 or new structure; time‑stop 45–60 min if no progress in a kill zone. Fade SHORT (A++) — “Sweep 6542–6548” This is counter‑HTF; require 5m MSS down + 15m bearish close before entry (your rule). Entry: 6545 ±2 after confirmations. SL: 6552 (above sweep high/5m OB). • TP1: 6526.25 (PDH/ONH) → ~19 pts ≈ 2.7R. • TP2: 6510 (derived 15m demand near VWAP band) → ~35 pts ≈ 5.0R. • TP3: 6502 (ONL=VAL) → ~43 pts ≈ 6.1R. • TP4: 6489.25 (PDL) → ~56 pts ≈ 8.0R. Management: Scale ½ at TP1; move to BE only after a 5m close < 6526 and fresh LTF structure; trail above last 5m swing/VWAP. Fundamentals (tomorrow — Eastern Time) • 08:30 — PPI (Aug). BLS schedule confirms Sep 10 @ 08:30. • 10:30 — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status (energy vol shock risk). Standard release Wednesdays 10:30; PDF posts after 1:00 pm. • 13:00 — UST 10‑yr (reopening). Treasury’s tentative auction schedule shows Wed Sep 10; competitive close customarily 1:00 pm ET. • Heads‑up (Thu): 08:30 — CPI (Aug) next day. • FOMC next week: Sep 16–17.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
NZDUSD to continue in the upward move?NZDUSD - 24h expiry There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end. Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 0.5950 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 0.5975. Pivot support is at 0.5820. We look to Buy at 0.5915 (stop at 0.5895) Our profit targets will be 0.5970 and 0.5975 Resistance: 0.5950 / 0.5970 / 0.5975 Support: 0.5925 / 0.5915 / 0.5900 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
BTCUSD is moving exponential and here's the setupBecause BTCUSD couldn't reach the L-MLH of the red fork twice, we have 2 HAGOPIANs cooking. That means, that price will move further in the opposite direction than from where price came. Price came from the Centerline, and that's where the high of the today's Candle peeked through. I expect more upside movement. As for a trade, I want to see price holding above the centerline. From there, PTG1 is the U-MLH and beyond that it's the white Centerline again (...which looks like it's going to the Moon, like XRPUSD). Of course, we seldom can eat the whole Cake. So we manage it and take partial profits on the way up. 🙏😊✨ Thanks for following and boosting folks. 🙏😊✨
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by HowToChart
XRPUSD is following our projectionThe red pressure line is broken. After dabbling with the L-MLH, price decided to jump back into the fork, projecting a potential huge move ahead. But not so fast! The slope of the white fork is super steep. In such situations I like to throw a Modified-Shiff-Fork, or a Shiff-Fork on the chart too. This gives me often more realistic profit targets. The trade could be managed by using the light-grey fork's centerline as PTG1 and the rest of the position aims for the white mooning centerline §8-) A second steak of the position could be loaded, after the yellow CIB-Line is broken. I like to wait for a test of it after the crack and jump-above. It's the same like a test/retest of a Medianline-Parallel if price broke out of it. Let's have fun here §8-)
COINBASE:XRPUSDLong
by HowToChart
Crude Oil - Eye twinkle to go long?The Test/Retest was expected, and it was not that clean as it is mostly. Usually I don't want to see price trading back into the fork again. This time, price managed to jump out of it again and opened above the U-MLH. If it can close outside the fork too, then this would be a good hint for me to load the boat. The 80% target is the yellow Centerline, or even higher, since the drillers moan about a too low price (Fundamental Fact). Let's see if we find some petro dollars.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by HowToChart
WMT ran into a buyers zone. A nice Long opportunityOn the daily time-frame we see WMT running into the old buyers zone and stopping dead, instead of breaking through it. It's exactly where the 1/4 line is. So, if price can't get to the L-MLH, we have a "potential" Hagopian at hand. And that tells us, price will go more in the opposite direction than from where price came - which was the Center-Line. Additionally, Friday closed higher than the high day a day prior. This is also proper momentum long signal, and because we have a decent Risk-Reward. A couple facts coming together, which is a clear must take signal to me. Happy Monday folks - another day in paradise §8-)
NYSE:WMTLong
by HowToChart
MRK is showing some breakout signsThe white fork is pointing slightly to the upside. CIB is broken and signals a change in behavior. The pullback to it was very nice - a Eye twinkle? §8-) Then price opened the door to the upside by peeking through the resistance of the consolidation, asking: "Anybody here to buy me?"...silence...so far. OK, let's be patient and wait for another sign or hint. Until the, stalking hat on, as my mentor Shane always said. --> NO FOMO IN THIS CLASS! <--
NYSE:MRKLong
by HowToChart
GBPAUD to continue in the downward move?GBPAUD - 24h expiry Our short term bias remains negative. Intraday rallies continue to attract sellers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end. 2.0650 has been pivotal. 50 4hour EMA is at 2.0622. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. We look to Sell at 2.0615 (stop at 2.0665) Our profit targets will be 2.0465 and 2.0435 Resistance: 2.0585 / 2.0620 / 2.0650 Support: 2.0487 / 2.0450 / 2.0400 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
1
XAU/USD – FED dovish, gold extends momentum; SELL only for scalp⚓️ Captain Vincent – Gold Plan XAU/USD 1. Market Waves 🌍 The probability of a FED rate cut in September has surged to 96.6% (from 90.4% earlier) after the JOLTS report showed weakening job prospects. Several FED officials, from Kashkari to Bostic, turned dovish. Only Musallim maintained a hawkish stance, with a scenario of just one cut. As a result, flows rushed back into gold as the #1 safe haven , fueling a strong rally last night. 📌 Key data today (04/09 – US time): ADP Nonfarm (7:15) Jobless Claims (7:30) ISM Services PMI (9:00) 👉 This trio of data could trigger significant volatility for GOLD. 2. Technical Outlook ⚙️ M30/H1 Chart: gold keeps forming bullish BOS , with the main trend still upward. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone 3,477 – 3,479): old Order Block, strong support if price retraces. Quick Boarding 🚤 (Sell Scalp 3,561 – 3,563): suitable only for short-term scalps. Storm Breaker 🌊 (Sell Zone 3,573 – 3,575): aligned with fibo 0.618–0.786 resistance, high chance of strong supply. Captain’s Shield 🛡️ (Support): 3,526 – 3,515 – 3,508 3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Trade Scenarios 🪙 🔺 Golden Harbor 🏝️ (BUY – Priority) Entry: 3,477 – 3,479 SL: 3,470 TP: 3,480 → 3,483 → 3,486 → 3,491 → 349x → 35xx 🚤 Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – short-term only) Entry: 3,561 – 3,563 SL: 3,569 TP: 3,558 → 3,555 → 3,552 → 354x 🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – strong resistance) Entry: 3,573 – 3,575 SL: 3,581 TP: 3,570 → 3,565 → 3,560 → 3,555 → 35xx 4. Captain’s Note ⚓ “The gold sail is filled with dovish winds from the FED. Golden Harbor 🏝️ 3477 remains the safe anchor to ride the trend. SELL setups are just Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps at Storm Breaker 🌊 , not long voyages.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XRPUSD - How Ripple is preparing for a potential big moveThe white Fork marks the most probable path of price. There is currently no indication, that Ripple really want's to take off to the upside, but: We have some potential points that could give us a clue: 1. Price seems to stabilize at the L-MLH. 2. There's a clear pressing going on (red line), which mostly will vanish when price pops above. 3. The L-MLH and the yellow CIB are pullback levels where price pauses If we trade below the Support Zone, the idea is thrown in the bin. Let's hold the water and see what happens .
COINBASE:XRPUSDLong
by HowToChart
Holding bullish trend, waiting for PMI to spark the next wave ⚓️ Captain Vincent – Gold Plan XAU/USD 1. Market Wave 🌍 The USD continues to weaken as investors increasingly believe the FED will cut rates in the coming months. As the greenback loses appeal, big money is shifting away from cash into safe-haven assets → Gold emerges as the top choice . 👉 This supports a sustained bullish trend . If USD selling pressure continues, the market could witness new breakouts toward the year-end. 2. Technical Analysis ⚙️ On H2, Gold just made a Higher High after BOS , confirming buyers still hold the upper hand. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone 3,450 – 3,452): Overlaps with old FVG, high liquidity area. Quick Boarding 🚤 (OB ~3,470): Intermediate support, good spot for quick pullback entries. Storm Breaker 🌊 (Sell Zone 3,538 – 3,540): Fib 0.618–0.786 resistance, profit-taking supply expected on retest. 👉 Intraday bias: Wait for pullback to Buy. Short-term Sell only if Gold tests Storm Breaker. 3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Key Levels 🪙 Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone): 3,450 – 3,452 Quick Boarding 🚤 (OB Support): 3,470 Storm Breaker 🌊 (Sell Zone): 3,538 – 3,540 4. Trade Scenarios 📌 🔺 Golden Harbor 🏝️ (BUY – Priority) Entry: 3,450 – 3,452 SL: 3,444 TP: 3,455 → 3,458 → 3,462 → 3,465 → 34xx 🔻 Storm Breaker 🌊 (SELL Reaction) Entry: 3,538 – 3,540 SL: 3,548 TP: 3,535 → 3,532 → 3,529 → 35xx 5. Captain’s Note ⚓ "The golden sail still rides the bullish wind, but Storm Breaker 🌊 above may stir counterwaves. Be patient at Golden Harbor 🏝️ for the right entry, and keep eyes on PMI at 21:00 – the catalyst for the next wave."
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
2
NQ - Nasdaq Short Playbook for the next weeksIn the NQ, they took out the high and then hit it on the head day by day. It finally stopped below the 1/4 line. If you look closely, you see that this was the slanted zone of Support — just like the slanted Resistance. "As above, so below." ...write me in the comments who said this already a couple hundred years ago §8-) The small Modified Schiff Fork tells a story too. Price reached the Center Line and got rejected. Now it's on its way down towards the small Fork's L-MLH. A break of it would indicate further selling ahead. And the last bastion is the green support level, which stems from the second-to-last prior confirmed Swing Low. Beyond this level, it's only a question of time before price hits the Center Line. And — God forbid — below the Center Line, the Sh...t hits the fan. So you better run... behind price with a decent short trade and ride it down to the Abyss. No worries, I'm with you §8-) Happy Monday, folks!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HowToChart
SPY washed away the Stops, and now rinse supportAt the U-MLH the air is very, very thin now. SPY is experience this and it looks like this market shows it's hand. It's the second time where the breakout failed. A classical Double-Top. Today SPY will open back into the Fork, which is a very bad sign for climbing markets. And if SPY can't close outside the Fork today, it would be a clear short to me. So, after the Wash of the Stops at the Top, what follows is the "Rinse" of the support level and then way down to the PTG1, the 1/4 line, and further to the PTG2 at the Center-Line.
AMEX:SPYShort
by HowToChart
2
NZDJPY to find sellers at current market price?NZDJPY - 24h expiry Our short term bias remains negative. The lack of interest is a concern for bulls. Intraday rallies continue to attract sellers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end. 50 4hour EMA is at 86.59. Offers ample risk/reward to sell at the market. We look to Sell at 86.48 (stop at 86.88) Our profit targets will be 85.28 and 85.08 Resistance: 86.65 / 87.00 / 87.50 Support: 86.00 / 85.55 / 85.00 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA