Siemens AG (1D) – Full Technical Analysis + Fundamental Analysis🔍 1. Price Action & Trend Structure
✔️ Strong long-term uptrend inside a rising channel
Siemens has been moving within a well-defined ascending channel for several years.
The price consistently respects both the upper resistance line and the lower support line of this channel.
Every pullback to the bottom of the channel has historically led to a new bullish wave.
✔️ Price currently near the upper-mid region of the channel
This suggests:
The trend is still healthy and bullish
But the stock is not at an ideal low-risk buy zone
Strongest buy opportunities typically occur near the channel’s lower boundary
✔️ Key support zone: ~138 €
This level, marked on the chart, acted as:
Major support during corrections
A psychological price floor
If the stock ever returns to this zone, it would be considered a high-value demand area.
🔍 2. MACD + RSI Combined Indicator
✔️ MACD is recovering from a recent bearish phase
The histogram is transitioning from negative toward zero → decreasing selling pressure
MACD and Signal lines are preparing for a possible bullish crossover
This usually indicates early momentum shift toward buyers
⚠️ However:
The momentum is not strongly bullish yet.
The MACD must cross above the Signal line with histogram turning positive for a confirmed buy signal.
➡️ We are currently in a transition phase, not a confirmed uptrend continuation.
🔍 3. Stochastic RSI (Stoch RSI)
✔️ Stoch RSI is near overbought levels (above 90)
This indicates:
A strong recent upward bounce
Potential for short-term pullback or consolidation
However, in strong long-term trends (like Siemens), Stoch RSI can stay overbought for extended periods without triggering a reversal.
✔️ Overall message from Stoch RSI:
Momentum is strong short term, but buying at this level carries increased risk of near-term correction.
🔍 4. Key Observations from RSI Strategy Buy/Sell Signals
The chart shows multiple automated RSI-based Buy (LE) and Sell (SE) signals.
Pattern:
Buy signals occur near channel support → extremely profitable historically
Sell signals occur near channel resistance → reliable for trimming or exiting
Right now:
Price is closer to the upper-middle zone, not near support
Therefore, no strong Buy signal is present
🔥 5. Bullish & Bearish Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Primary Trend)
If price continues respecting the channel:
Next target: 240–250 € range
Break above 250 € → continuation toward 270–280 €, the projected top of the channel
This aligns with the stock’s strong long-term bullish structure.
Bearish Scenario (Less likely but important)
If momentum weakens and price breaks below the mid-channel line:
First support: 210 €
Major support: 138 € zone (historically very strong)
A break below 138 € would invalidate the rising channel, but this has a low probability given historical behavior.
⭐ Final Summary
Siemens remains in a strong multi-year uptrend inside a clean ascending channel.
MACD shows early signs of bullish momentum returning, but not confirmed yet.
Stoch RSI is overbought, signaling the possibility of a short-term pullback.
Price is not at the channel bottom, meaning risk is higher for new entries at current levels.
📌 Best buying opportunities historically occur at the channel’s lower boundary.
We are currently in the mid-to-upper area, which is not optimal for low-risk entry.
If you want, I can also provide:
✔ Entry/exit points
✔ Risk management plan
✔ Weekly & monthly timeframe confirmation
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Fundamental Analysis
🧾 1. Business & Structural Drivers
Siemens AG is a diversified industrial and technology group, with core businesses in:
Digital Industries (automation, industrial software)
Smart Infrastructure (building technologies, power distribution)
Mobility (rail and transportation solutions)
Management highlights electrification, transportation and industrial software as the main long-term growth drivers, with continued strong demand in these areas even while the automation environment has been more challenging.
Siemens
The company is also pushing its “ONE Tech Company” strategy – integrating hardware, software and services to lock in customers and grow recurring revenues.
Siemens
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📈 2. Recent Financial Performance
FY 2024 (year ended 30 Sept 2024)
Revenue: €75.9 billion, +3% year-on-year.
Net income: €9.0 billion – a record high at that time.
Free cash flow: €9.5 billion, described by management as “excellent”.
Siemens
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Siemens Press
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Demand remained strong in electrification, transport and industrial software, helping offset a tougher cycle in automation.
Siemens
FY 2025 (latest full year)
For fiscal 2025 (ended Sept 2025), Siemens extended this growth trend:
Q1 2025: revenue €18.4 bn (+3%); book-to-bill 1.09.
Siemens Press
Q2 2025: revenue €19.8 bn (+7%); orders up 10% to €21.6 bn; book-to-bill 1.10.
Siemens Press
Q4 2025: revenue €21.4 bn (+6% comparable); book-to-bill 1.02.
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For the full fiscal 2025 year:
Net income: ~€10.4 billion, another all-time high (third year in a row).
EPS pre PPA: €12.95; excluding one-off gains, EPS pre PPA was ~€10.71 – in line with guidance (€10.40–11.00).
Siemens Press
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There was an earnings miss versus analyst expectations in Q4 2025 (EPS and revenue came in slightly below forecasts, which caused a short-term share price drop), but underlying growth remained solid.
Investing.com
Outlook
For fiscal 2026, Siemens guides for:
Comparable revenue growth: 6–8%
Book-to-bill: >1
EPS pre PPA: €10.40–11.00 (excluding special items).
Siemens
This shows management still expects profitable growth despite macro uncertainty and FX headwinds.
💰 3. Balance Sheet, Cash & Dividend
Free cash flow: around €9.5 bn in FY 2024 (and similarly strong in 2025), giving the company a lot of flexibility for dividends, buybacks and investment.
Siemens Press
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Net debt: Total net debt around €34.8 bn, but industrial net debt only about €7.9 bn, down ~27% vs 2022, with a solid liquidity position.
Creditreform Rating
Dividend: Proposed/paid dividend of €5.20 per share, with a yield roughly in the 2–3% range and a payout ratio around 40–45%.
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Rating agencies and independent analysts generally view Siemens’ balance sheet as strong and conservative, which supports continued investment and shareholder returns.
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📊 4. Valuation
Recent data show:
Trailing P/E: around 23–24x earnings.
Wisesheets
Forward estimates (2026–2027) imply a P/E in the low-20s and a dividend yield around 2.4–2.6%.
MarketScreener
Profit margin around 12% and decent returns on equity and invested capital compared with peers.
Yahoo Finance
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So the stock is not cheap, but for a high-quality, diversified industrial with strong cash generation and structural growth themes, the valuation is in a reasonable premium range rather than “bubble” territory.
⚙️ 5. Key Fundamental Positives
Structural tailwinds in electrification, grid upgrades, automation, digitalization and rail transport.
Siemens
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Consistent revenue and order growth with book-to-bill >1, showing a healthy pipeline.
Siemens Press
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Excellent free cash flow and disciplined capital allocation (dividends, buybacks, targeted acquisitions).
Siemens Press
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Strong balance sheet with manageable industrial net debt and solid credit ratings.
Creditreform Rating
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⚠️ 6. Main Risks & Caveats
Cyclical exposure: Parts of the business (especially automation) are sensitive to global industrial cycles and capex spending.
Siemens
Execution & portfolio risk: Strategy depends on integrating software, services and hardware; missteps in large projects (Mobility, infrastructure) or M&A could pressure margins.
FX and macro headwinds: Management already cites currency effects as a drag on EPS for 2026.
Siemens
Valuation risk: With a P/E in the 20s, any disappointment (like the recent Q4 2025 earnings miss) can trigger sharp short-term drawdowns.
Investing.com
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🧩 7. How This Fits Your Technical View
Technical picture: clear long-term uptrend in a rising channel, but currently not at the lower boundary (not a “deep value” technical entry).
Fundamentals: confirm Siemens as a high-quality, cash-generative company with solid growth guidance and a shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy.
So from a combined technical + fundamental perspective:
Long-term investors might see Siemens as a strong compounder but may prefer to buy on pullbacks toward the lower part of the channel to improve risk/reward.
Short- to medium-term traders should still respect the overbought readings and channel resistance, even though the underlying business is fundamentally strong.
⚠️ Disclaimer (as you requested)
This fundamental and technical analysis reflects only my personal view based on publicly available information. I take no responsibility for any of your buy or sell decisions.
