Gold: Holding Ground or Preparing for the Next Rally?Hello everyone,
After a pullback from the 3,703 USD/oz peak to the 3,68xx area, gold appears to be in a natural correction rather than signalling a trend reversal. On the H1 chart, the bullish structure remains intact: the market is still printing higher-highs and higher-lows, trading above the Ichimoku Cloud, while leaving behind Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) as potential support.
This cooling phase is understandable, as short-term players take profits while the US dollar and Treasury yields edge higher, temporarily reducing gold’s appeal. Yet, the broader picture remains supportive, particularly after the Fed’s 25bps rate cut and its openness to further easing if economic data allows.
In this context, my base case is that gold will stabilise around 3,65x–3,66x before attempting a break above 3,700, potentially extending gains toward 3,724–3,735 and even 3,742–3,750.
The alternative scenario would only emerge if gold breaks below 3,650, which could trigger selling pressure and push prices down to 3,62x before establishing a new base.
Personally, I still favour the bullish path: a breakout above 3,700, a retest around 3,69x, followed by a rally toward the 3,73xx region. However, with major catalysts like Core PCE on 26 September and upcoming Fed speeches, I’ll be reducing position size to manage the risk of sudden volatility.
So what do you think? Will gold reclaim momentum and push beyond 3,700? Share your view!
