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CLong
by GodBlessCrypt0
IWM - Looks like small caps might be in for a bit more hurtThe daily chart from the Covid crash to the peak of the Covid recovery paints a picture of the Russell 2000 that is eerily similar to a textbook sketch of Wyckoff's distribution theory. For the bulk of 2021 IWM respected a very clear support line that has been crashed through in 2022. Recent price action shows that old support being tested as a new resistance and buyers attempting to push prices through that level were flatly rejected. Furthermore, volume began spiking on drops in price below the 200 day moving average and any movement above it recently was met with anemic volume. This is not the excitement that we've been accustomed to in the small caps of 2020. The game has changed. With 1/3 of the Russell (at least) being non-revenue producing speculative companies that were exponentially over-valued during the 2020 bull run, it's hard to imagine that the grounding of the Russell isn't real and that it isn't coming. In today's market, giants like TSLA, AAPL, and MSFT are being dragged down to fundamental value. The small caps aren't immune, unfortunately. What's even worse is that a correction to AAPL's charts isn't as ghastly as some small caps that are trading at tens or hundreds of millions above their quarterly earnings. The Russell is an important index to watch if one is interested in small cap boomers. It serves as not only a tradable ETF but as a thermometer for the sentiment toward speculation. Right now, it appears that bullish sentiment and risk taking is waning and bearish sentiment is growing. This could lead to a gut wrenching performance for small caps going forward into 2022 and larger drops in former penny stocks that retail investors drove to epic heights in 2020 and early 2021. Many of these companies are still heavily overvalued after 50%+ drops in share prices. I'd expect volatility in the coming months as tax returns are pumped into these old favorites with the rallying cries of "buy the dip" and "moon next PR" on the breath of most novice investors and traders, especially those who are holding bags likely exponentially higher than current share prices. Once that surge of small money ends I would think that an abysmal summer is approaching for many of these strongholds. Most of the companies have made lofty promises and many of them have targeted this summer for validation of their business models and strategies. But in the face of generationally high inflation, wars, rate hikes, and supply chain disruptions along with a pandemic that is cyclically impacting humanity, will it matter? If Mr. Russell is any indication of what is to come, that answer is likely no. Spiking prices will likely be met with hard sell-offs and shorts that start to feel the squeeze will get a layer of protection from the trapped bulls just looking to get their money back out of the markets. It's not the best of news, but it shouldn't be considering that we aren't in the best of economic situations currently. Of course this is the markets and the markets have a mind of their own. It's wise not to get too caught up in bias and predictions to the point where you are unable to react appropriately and according to your plans. Good luck out there and God bless!!
AMEX:IWM
by TradingTacticsPro
$IWM — Potential H&S forming on the 1hr We can either go lower to fill that open gap right off the bat... or We're going to go a bit higher to form the second shoulder, creating the H&S with a downside target of $193... Either way, that gap is filling — not sure if it will today, but likely for next week and for certain before March's 3rd Friday. The StochasticSlow is looking overbought, and the CCI is hinging lower just under that momentum line — bad sign for the bulls, if you ask me.
AMEX:IWMShort
by OptionsAddicts
1
XTM - Breach of downtrend and launchTorum attracted a lot of attention once they were listed on KuCoin, pumped to a high and then fell subject to immense selling pressure. I've had my eye on this project for a while and it has been tempting to "buy the dip". Similar to many alts, $XTM has been heavily affected by the #Bitcoin downtrend since 69k and has struggled to regain solid footing in these turbulent market conditions. On February 7th, XTM broke its downtrend which started on November 19th, for the first time since the 29th of November. Unlike the initial breach in late November, this recent outbreak has shown more strength by successfully retesting the resistance and turning it to support. This shows buying pressure. It makes sense as after the outbreak, XTM had strong hidden bearish divergence and evidence of the MACD crossing over on the 12H time frame. Consequently, we saw a decrease of 34% (at the time of writing 2/18/22). Why didn't we buy XTM earlier? Why is it a more interesting trade now? 1) I have been looking for strength after the breakout from XTM, which did not happen in late November - early December. Breach of the trendline, no real consolidation and dip. 2) XTM is seeing its support hold better against selling pressure and the initial close of our most recent swing low (.2175) could be a good entry as if it forms a double bottom. 3) XTM has been having a relatively neutral month despite Bitcoin having a good start to February (despite price action in recent days!). Obviously, this lack of price increase is not a bullish sign, but what this along with volume tells me is that selling pressure has also substantially decreased. 4) Too much overall uncertainty in the market. XTM was recommended to me by a respected peer, who is bullish on the project's fundamentals. As you can see in the chart, I am bullish from a technical analysis point of view. This will all be heavily influenced by the price action of Bitcoin. Torum is a very low market cap cryptocurrency and thus categorically a higher risk choice of investment, please exercise risk management if you choose to invest. I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice. I was encouraged to start posting trading ideas as I have benefitted tremendously from studying the work of others in this community. I would love to learn more, if there is anything you would like to discuss XTM, other cryptos, stocks, or trade ideas please feel free to leave them in the comment section below. Have a good weekend, C
Long
by BahtMover
The rotation from MegaCaps to SmallCaps is in FULL swing.Disclaimer: This chart shows how Non-Nasdaq100 Companies have fared vs Nasdaq100 Companies. I personally interpret this as the "SmallCap vs MegaCap Index". The recent days have been incredible. We're witnessing the probably strongest rotation from MegaCaps to SmallCaps the market has ever seen. 🙌 As some of you might now from my previous ideas - we've been in a bear market for a year , starting on February 11 2021: That bear market seems to be at an end now while the bear market for MegaCaps is just getting started 🐻. Trial number 3 seems to be successful - other's have miserably failed, like this one in August: While MegaCaps have tanked, normal stocks have rallied 🚀: Disclaimer: The chart you can see above is the Nasdaq Composite Index ( IXIQ ) cleaned of Nasdaq100 companies (to the best of my knowledge). It's definitely a good time to be out of ETF's and be in individual stocks that have reasonable valuations as compared to most US MegaCaps. As always, let me know your thoughts. 🤯
TVC:IXICLong
by The_Silen
IWM trade update, and more swing putsIn my previous chart (linked) I gave notice of IWM breaking down from its range. The upper gray line marks the lowest close of the sideways range, and the lower line marks the dip last January. There is a lot of air underneath. I took profits on the dip to 205 yesterday. Today I bought 18Feb puts again at the 208-209 resistance. Now looking at 198 break, then 193, 185. fyi - My option swing trades usually last 1 day to 2 weeks. I only use long calls or puts, single leg.
AMEX:IWMShort
by OptionsRising
2
IWM - is stochastic warning of a major support break?IWM has been rangebound for almost one year now. Price was around highs of 170 before the "Covid drop." The 212 area is strong support, but it may break soon. Since price broke out of the upper resistance and fell right back into range, a break of support may soon follow. Let me explain how I use stochastic %K warning signals, which usually lead price movement. My custom setting is 10-period %K and 7-period %D (I do not use D-slow), which I find to work well for my day and short swing trades. When %K (blue line) drops from above 80 to under 20 in 2-3 candles, it warns of more selling, and the corresponding price candles are usually innocuous. Usually I look for price to bounce first and then make a significant drop, as happened at the end of October (white oval). %K gave a warning signal and was followed by a quick reaction bounce before a larger selloff. Sometimes, as is happening now, %K will give a warning and it is followed by lower RSI and continued selling. This signal does not work 100% of the time, but I use it regularly with high success to enter long option trades. Also, the same is true in the upwards direction; a sharp rise in %K from under 20 to over 80 signals a stock will soon make a significant move up. On 6 Jan I bought two put positions when IWM was 218-219: 21Jan 215 strike and 18Feb 210 strike. With markets dropping sharply right now, wait for a good entry. IWM should retest 212 and if it bounces up again instead of breaking support then I have plenty of time to exit Feb puts without a big loss.
AMEX:IWMShort
by OptionsRising
3