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SMC-ICT

Gold Weekly Outlook (Sept 29 – Oct 3)Hello Traders, As we head into the final stretch of September, gold is approaching a critical technical juncture. With prices testing a key supply zone and momentum indicators running hot, traders are watching closely for signs of either continuation or reversal. This week could offer important clues about the broader trend heading into Q4. Let’s dive into the levels, catalysts, and scenarios that matter most. 🟡 Gold Summary (XAUUSD) Current Price: ~3760
Bias: Bearish–Neutral
Catalyst: NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) this Friday 🔑 Key Levels Resistance (Supply Zones): * 3770–3835 → Current ceiling (weekly supply) * 3895–3945 → Breakout confirmation zone Support (Demand Zones): * 3640–3600 → First major demand * 3560–3510 → Secondary support * 3480–3430 → Deeper shelf * 3250–3200 → Long-term institutional demand 🔻 Bearish Scenario (Favored unless breakout occurs) * Rejection at 3770–3835 → Targets: 3640 → 3560 → 3480 * RSI divergence + stretched EMAs support pullback 🔺 Bullish Scenario * Break and hold above 3820–3835 → Targets: 3850 → 3895 → 3945 * Weekly close above 3820 = strong continuation signal , opens up possibility of price targeting $4K. 📉 Intraday (H1–H4) * Structure: Bullish but weakening * EMAs stretched, RSI diverging * Tactical rejection at 3775–3795 opens downside * Breakout above 3795–3820 needed for further upside ⚔️ Decision Point 3760–3785 = Key battle zone * Rejection → Bearish retrace * Breakout → Bullish continuation ✅ Strategy: Wait for confirmation. NFP will likely trigger the move.
TVC:GOLDLong
by FX_Scrubbs
1
REAL VS FAKE CHOCK🔹 1. Real Choke vs Fake Choke A **Choke** in ICT/SMC language usually refers to a **block of price action where liquidity is absorbed** and either the trend reverses or continues strongly. It is connected to the idea of **Order Blocks, IDM (Imbalance-Demand-Mitigations)** and **Liquidity Absorption**. ### ✅ Real Choke * Happens when **genuine liquidity is absorbed** by institutions (big players). * Price reacts to the choke level → gives a **clear displacement** in opposite direction. * Characteristics: * Strong rejection (impulsive move away). * Volume & imbalance support the move. * Leaves behind a valid **IDM / FVG / Order Block**. * Usually aligns with **higher timeframe POI** (HTF OB, FVG, BPR). 👉 **Effect**: Becomes the base for a **true reversal or strong continuation**. --- ### ❌ Fake Choke * Happens when price **pretends to absorb liquidity** but it’s just a **stop hunt / inducement**. * Market sweeps liquidity near choke level → then continues in original direction. * Characteristics: * Small/weak rejection, no real displacement. * No proper imbalance or absorption. * Often formed just to **trap retail traders** thinking reversal is coming. * Seen in **mid-range / liquidity inducement zones**, not at HTF POI. 👉 **Effect**: Leads to **continuation in same direction** after trapping liquidity. --- ## 🔹 2. Why IDM (Imbalance Demand Mitigation) is Important **IDM** is the footprint of institutions when they: * Absorb liquidity, * Create imbalance, and * Mitigate their positions later. It’s important because: 1. **Shows Institutional Interest** → IDM confirms that Smart Money actually participated. 2. **Validates Choke** → If choke has IDM inside it → higher chance it’s **real**. 3. **Gives Entry Points** → IDM zones often become mitigation levels (precise entries with low risk). 4. **Separates Fake vs Real** → Fake chokes usually have no IDM footprint. --- ## 🔹 3. Role of IDM in Reversal & Liquidity Absorption When market is reversing: * First, **retail liquidity is collected** (fake choke). * Then, institutions place **real choke + IDM** to absorb liquidity. * The IDM ensures that: * All **supply/demand imbalance** is cleared, * Institutions get filled, * Price is ready for a **clean reversal**. 👉 **In Short:** * **Fake choke** = liquidity grab. * **Real choke + IDM** = liquidity absorption + reversal base. --- ⚡So, the easiest filter is: * If a choke has **IDM (clear imbalance & mitigation footprint)** → it’s **real**. * If not → it’s just a **fake liquidity sweep**.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by amanagrawalofficial
Gold Weekly Outlook ( FOMC Week )Hello traders, Another week and most importantly its FOMC week 🔸 Weekly Outlook (HTF Bias) Trend: Bullish, but stretched into ATH zone. Supply Zones: 3670–3720 (ATH pocket – decision zone) 3770–3800 (extension confluence) 3850–3920 (untouched liquidity cluster) Demand Zones / Imbalance: 3590–3450 → main corrective magnet (contains EMA50) 3340–3290 → first strong HTF demand 3180–3120 & 3050–2980 → deeper extreme discount demand Confluence: EMA stack bullishly locked, but extended RSI weekly overbought → exhaustion risk Liquidity pools: above 3674 ATH and below imbalance 3450 Fibonacci: 1.272/1.618 extensions (3750/3880) align with supply above Scenarios: Bullish Expansion: Clean breakout above 3670–3720 → targets 3770 → 3850+ Bearish Correction: Rejection from ATH → pullback into 3590–3450 imbalance. A deeper rebalance could test 3340 or lower demand if macro turns hawkish. 🔸 H4 Structure & Trend Trend: Still bullish (HH–HL), but slowing momentum inside supply. Active Supply Zones: 3640–3666 → current battlefield (price inside) 3692–3720 → inducement + 1.272 Fib trap zone 3745–3785 → 1.618–2.0 Fib, expansion exhaustion supply Demand Zones: 3600–3580 → first pullback demand 3544–3520 → EMA50 confluence, BOS origin 3500–3470 → last valid H4 demand before sentiment shift Confluence: EMAs locked bullish, but flattening RSI cooling off → momentum compression Equal highs below 3666 → inducement Imbalances on both sides = liquidity-driven moves ahead Scenarios: Bullish: Hold above 3600–3580 → breakout above 3666 confirms push toward 3720/3785. Bearish: Rejection at 3640–3666 or EQH sweep → pullback into 3580/3544, possibly 3500. 🔸 H1 Refined Levels Premium Sell Zones: 3640–3654 → short-term liquidity wall (first seller defense) 3670–3678 → ATH trap zone (inducement risk) 3704–3720 → exhaustion zone (final upside trap) Discount Buy Zones: 3595–3580 → first reaction base 3550–3535 → mid-range accumulation shelf 3505–3490 → deep liquidity reload zone (best RR swing entry) Decision Zone: 3630–3608 → momentum pivot Above 3630 → bulls in control Below 3608 → opens reentry demand zones 🎯 Battle Plan Bullish Play: Look for rejections from 3595 / 3550 / 3505 with confirmation (M15 BOS or engulfing). Above 3630 → push toward 3654 → 3674 → 3720. Break and hold above 3674 → continuation toward 3770+. Bearish Play: Tactical shorts at 3654, 3678, 3720 with M15/M30 confirmation. Targets: 3608 → 3580 → 3550. Loss of 3490 = HTF correction mode unlocked. ✅ Overall Bias: Still bullish on HTF, but extended. Market is at a make-or-break zone (3640–3674). ⚠️ Risk: RSI overbought + inducement structure = high probability of a liquidity sweep before the real move. 📌 Key Catalyst: FOMC will likely decide whether ATH breaks cleanly or if a corrective flush into imbalance (3450–3590) happens first
TVC:GOLD
by FX_Scrubbs
This Aussie Tech Gem Is Screaming BUY – If This Zone Holds!SDR (SiteMinder) is showing massive potential both technically and fundamentally: - Trading 75.4% below fair value - Forecasted to grow 65.36% YoY - Earnings up 28.2% p.a. over the last 5 years - Analysts expect 91%+ upside On the chart, we’re sitting right on a high-probability monthly FVG + OB zone. If respected, we could see a strong rally back toward the $6.90–$7.78 buyside liquidity levels and beyond. Key Levels to Watch: 📍 FVG support: ~$3.50 📈 Targets: $6.90 – $7.78 🧠 Confirmation needed via strong candle closes 🔥 Could be a high-reward play — but as always, DYOR!
ASX:SDRLong
by INSIDER_INTEL
2
DXY | 1SPT directional sentiment (SMC)“DXY moving like it just clocked in for a Monday shift 🥱📉… got smacked with that Friday LQC and now stumbling down to 97.100 like it’s chasing a Black Friday discount 🛒. Daily bias still bearish, 4H looking weak, and on the 1H the bulls tryna flex but only after sweeping some liquidity 🐂➡️🚪. If price taps back into that chef’s POI kitchen 🍳 and fails to hold, the bears finna drag this straight to the basement 📉🐻. Until then, we vibin’ in discount land waiting for confirmation signals. This POI remains the make-or-break zone 🧩 heading into the next sessions.”**
TVC:DXYShort
by sam_trades_smc
XAUUSD 30M – Intraday Plan Around the RangePrice is holding between $3,417.84 (resistance) and $3,403.41 (support). We’re trading around $3,410–$3,411 inside a tight box. Scalps can work, but reversals are quick. 🔼 Bullish Plan (needs confirmation) Trigger: A clean 30min body close above $3,417.84 (not just a wick). Targets: $3,419.55 → $3,420.54 → $3,422.10. Management: Take partials at $3,419.55, move SL to breakeven once $3,418 holds on a retest. 🔽 Bearish Plan (cleaner below support) Trigger: 30min body close below $3,403.41. Targets: $3,401.29 → $3,398.36 (trail if sellers stay in control). Management: Scale partials at $3,401.29, protect the rest at breakeven. 🔄 Range Scalp (higher risk, small size) Shorts: $3,416–$3,417 on a clear rejection → aim $3,410–$3,412, SL above rejection high / $3,420. Longs: $3,403–$3,404 on a strong rejection wick → aim mid-range, SL below $3,401. ✅ Break Confirmation Strong 30min close through the level. ❌ Invalidation Breakout closes back inside the box on the next candle (trap). Multiple wick with no momentum. 📌 Bottom Line Above $3,417.84 → bullish bias to $3,420.54 and $3,422.10. Below $3,403.41 → bearish bias to $3,401.29 and $3,398.36. Inside the box = scalp only, keep risk tight.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by fxt8