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XAUUSD – The 4.221 Zone Determines Direction Ahead of Fed ...XAUUSD – The 4.221 Zone Determines Direction Ahead of Fed From my perspective, gold on 10/12 is in a "waiting to choose direction" phase: The price is caught between the resistance zone of 4.221–4.239 and strong support at 4.166. On the 45m chart, the current structure is a sideways top, following the previous upward move. In the context of the Fed about to announce interest rates, I won't guess but will closely follow these two zones to make decisions. 🎯 Important Technical Zones Main Resistance: 4.221 – 4.225: Fibo zone 0.236–0.382 and thick volume cluster. 4.239: extended resistance peak – if broken, the target is the 4.25x zone. Strong Support: 4.166: "Strong support" zone on the chart – current range bottom. Below 4.166, the 4.12x zone is the extended Fibo 1.618, where liquidity might be attracted if the market sells off deeply. 📌 Scenario 1 – Continued Uptrend (preferred if holding above 4.200) If the price: Holds firmly above 4.200, Clearly breaks the 4.221–4.225 zone and closes a 45m candle above, I will consider this a confirmation signal that buyers are regaining control. Trading reference: Buy when the price breaks & retests 4.221–4.225. Temporary SL set below 4.210. TP: 4.245 – 4.258 – 4.270. As long as gold stands above 4.200, I prioritize the scenario of maintaining a bullish bias, viewing any pullback to 4.20x as a buying opportunity. 📌 Scenario 2 – Short-term Sell within the Range If the price fails to break 4.221–4.239, leaving a cluster of pin candles with small bodies, I consider this a signal of exhaustion at the resistance zone: Sell around 4.221–4.225 (up to 4.239 if there's a spike). SL above 4.239. TP: 4.190 – 4.176 – 4.166, deeper to 4.130 if selling pressure increases strongly. This scenario is for short-term scalping/swing, going against the medium-term bullish bias, so volume must be tightly controlled. 1️⃣ Basic Context: Everyone Awaits the Fed USD/CHF is trading steadily around 0.8060, reflecting the FX market's wait-and-see stance ahead of the Fed's decision. Investors don't want to bet too heavily in one direction before the news, so gold tends to fluctuate within the range rather than breaking out immediately. When the Fed announces interest rates and guidance, gold's volatility range can expand very quickly, sweeping through both resistance and support zones. Therefore, I don't recommend entering large volume orders right before the Fed. The priority is to read price reactions at the 4.221 and 4.166 zones, then decide whether to increase or decrease positions. 2️⃣ My Plan Above 4.221, holding price well: prioritize buying scenario on break, targeting 4.25x. Failing to break 4.221, weak candles: consider short selling to 4.19x – 4.166. If the price falls straight below 4.166, I will temporarily stay out, waiting for the market to create a new balance zone before planning further. Each trade risks a maximum of 1–2% of the account, no widening SL during strong news phases. If you find this perspective useful, follow the TradingView channel and leave a comment on whether you lean towards breaking above 4.221 or turning back from resistance – let's update after the Fed news.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LiamTradingFX
XAUUSD – LANA TRACKS ELLIOTT WAVE 5, PRIORITIZES SELLING ...XAUUSD – LANA TRACKS ELLIOTT WAVE 5, PRIORITIZES SELLING TOWARDS 4130 1. Fundamental Analysis International capital is pouring into Japanese Government Bonds (JGB), accounting for ~65% of monthly transactions. When the BOJ reduces bond purchases, JGB yields climb to multi-decade highs, turning Japan into a new source of "volatility export" for the global financial market. Every capital withdrawal or reversal on JGB can spread to currency and commodity markets, including gold. In this context, Lana prioritizes viewing gold through the lens of Elliott waves + liquidity, considering current increases mainly as technical rebounds in a deeper corrective structure. 2. Technical Analysis On the M30 frame, Lana is monitoring the declining Elliott wave 5 structure: The area around 4200 is acting as the end of wave 4, after which the price gradually weakens. Wave 5 is expected to head towards the strong support area of 4128–4135, coinciding with the large demand box below. Two intermediate support areas: 4164 – where the chart notes "Buy scalping". 4153 – an important bottom area and sellside liquidity. 4176–4178 is currently a short-term bottom: if decisively broken, Lana considers this a confirmation signal for wave 5 expansion. 3. Price Areas to Watch Near resistance: Retest area around 4184–4187 (after breaking the bottom, it may rebound to test). Support & wave target: 4164 and 4153: intermediate support, likely to react. 4135 – 4130 – 4112: expected price area to complete wave 5 & liquidity below. 4. Trading Scenarios ⭐️ Main Scenario – Sell according to Elliott wave 5 Condition: Only Sell when the price breaks and confirms the bottom 4176–4178. Sell: below the area 4176–4178 (can wait for a retest around 4180–4184 for a better entry). SL: 4184 TP: 4155 – 4130 – 4112 ⭐️ Secondary Scenario – Short-term Buy scalping Buy scalping: 4164 Target: short rebound of 10–15 points, suitable for quick trades, not holding positions for long. This week, Lana maintains a primary Sell mindset, all Buy orders are only for scalping to catch rebounds, not against the main trend. 👉 Follow Lana on TradingView to receive the earliest gold updates directly on your phone. 💛
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
1
XAUUSD – H1 is in a correction phase, watch for sell ...XAUUSD – H1 is in a correction phase, watch for sell retracement – buy at Fibo + VAL zone Gold is currently in a downtrend structure on H1, the current wave is just a retracement in the downtrend after last weekend. The important price zone to watch is around 4.164 – if this zone is not broken, the H1 downtrend remains intact. Below that, the market is "targeting" the 50% Fibo cluster + VAL zone around 4.125–4.132, where buy liquidity is concentrated. 🎯 SCENARIO 1 – SELL RETRACEMENT IN DOWN STRUCTURE Sell: 4.208 – 4.212 SL: 4.216 TP: 4.190 – 4.176 – 4.150 – 4.130 Reason: 4.208–4.212 is the timing sell zone on the chart: Confluence with the nearest resistance zone of H1. Located just above the "strong support" zone that was breached, now acting as new resistance. If the price retraces here, I prioritize selling in line with the H1 downtrend, targeting the bottom zone 4.19x – 4.176, deeper to 4.150–4.130 near the Fibo bottom zone. ⭐️ SCENARIO 2 – BUY AT BUY ZONE FIBO + VAL 4.125–4.132 Buy: 4.125 – 4.132 SL: below 4.132 (according to personal capital management, I do not allow the price to break deeply into this zone) TP: 4.155 – 4.190 – 4.225 Reason: The 4.125–4.132 zone is the Buy zone confluence of VAL + 50% Fibonacci of the previous uptrend, also where the volume profile shows a large volume of transactions. If after the sell wave, the price sweeps here and a clear bounce reaction appears, I consider this the zone to start accumulating BUY positions for the retracement up to 4.155–4.19x, further to 4.225. 1️⃣ Basic Context – Fed and Rate Cut Expectations The probability of the Fed cutting 25bps in the upcoming meeting continues to rise sharply: FedWatch: ~89.4% Polymarket: ~95% This indicates that the market is almost pricing in a loosening decision, creating a positive foundation for gold in the medium term, although short-term deep corrections may still occur due to profit-taking and position restructuring. In summary: macro supports gold, but H1 is still in a correction phase; instead of bottom-fishing mid-way, I choose to sell retracement at resistance zones, buy at clear Fibo + VAL zones. 2️⃣ Action Plan & Risk Management Only trade at defined zones Sell: 4.208–4.212, SL 4.216, TP 4.190–4.176–4.150–4.130. Buy: 4.125–4.132, SL below 4.132, TP 4.155–4.190–4.225. Do not enter orders between the 4.16x–4.19x zone, avoid being "whipsawed" in the sideways wave of the retracement. For each scenario, the maximum risk is 1–2% of the account, do not widen SL even when Fed news is about to be released. If you find this perspective useful, follow the TradingView account and leave a comment on whether you lean towards sell retracement or wait for deep buy at the Fibo zone today – I always read feedback before posting the next article.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
XAUUSD – LANA PRIORITIZES SELLING ACCORDING TO ELLIOTT WAVE ...XAUUSD – LANA PRIORITIZES SELLING ACCORDING TO ELLIOTT WAVE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK Fundamental Analysis During the quantitative easing (QE) phase, the Fed injects money into the system by purchasing bonds, filling the liquidity "reservoir" and typically supporting asset prices, including gold. Conversely, with quantitative tightening (QT), the Fed gradually shrinks its balance sheet, withdrawing cash from the market, making financial conditions tighter. Currently, with QT concluded, the Fed is essentially signaling: This is the "minimum" liquidity level they deem safe, Mitigating the risk of repeating a liquidity shock like in 2019. This helps reduce tightening pressure on gold in the medium term, but in the short term, prices are still in a technical correction phase, so Lana prioritizes trading according to the Elliott wave rather than chasing news. Technical Analysis – Elliott Wave on M30 On the M30 frame, gold is in a corrective wave C structure, possibly the final phase of the current pattern. The previous wave 5 showed signs of a truncated wave, failing to create a new sustainable peak, indicating that buying momentum has weakened. At the beginning of the week, prices continue to sweep Buy liquidity but fail to maintain upward momentum, reflecting the current weak buying sentiment. Below, the 4128–4135 zone is important – both a support area and where Lana expects wave C to complete if the downward phase extends. With such a structure, Lana's plan this week is to prioritize Selling, following the wave C phase instead of trying to catch the bottom early. Price Zones to Watch Sell Retracement Zone: 4215 – 4218 (Main Entry) Target & Lower Liquidity Zones: 4192 – 4175 – 4164: intermediate liquidity points along the way. 4135 – 4130: expected price zone to complete wave C (matching the 4128–4135 zone on the chart). Trading Scenario ⭐️ Main Scenario – Sell according to Elliott wave C Sell entry: 4215 – 4218 Maximum SL: 4220 TP: Minimum: +20 points from entry Extend according to the wave: zone 4135 – 4130 if the market completes the full correction phase This week, Lana will not prioritize early bottom buying, but will wait until prices approach the 4128–4135 zone and clearer signals appear before reconsidering. 👉 Follow Lana on TradingView for the latest updates on major gold waves.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
2
XAUUSD – LANA MONITORS SUPPORT 4190–4199 BEFORE FED RATE CUT XAUUSD – LANA MONITORS SUPPORT 4190–4199 BEFORE FED RATE CUT Fundamental Analysis In the past year, Silver has increased by ~82%, Gold by ~58% – indicating that capital flow still favors the precious metals group. The market is pricing in ~97% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25bps tomorrow, which is a supportive factor for gold in the medium term as yields decrease and the opportunity cost of holding gold is lower. However, before the announcement, prices often fluctuate around short-term support – resistance zones, so Lana prioritizes trading based on technical price zones on M30. Technical Analysis (M30 – support/resistance) For gold to decline further, the nearest bottom around 4199 needs to be clearly broken. Currently, the price is reacting around 4190, which is an important support zone: As long as this zone is not broken, gold still has the potential to rebound within the range. Above is the resistance zone 4235–4238, coinciding with the previous FVG/resistance zone on the chart – suitable for watching to Sell if the price retraces. Below, the 4164–4167 zone is the next support, also where Lana marks Buy scalping when the price sharply declines. In summary: As long as the support is not completely broken, Lana still prioritizes Buying at the support zone. The Sell scenario is only activated when the price retraces to a higher resistance zone. Price Zones to Watch Important Support: 4199 – 4190 (nearest bottom & short-term support) 4164 – 4167 (next Buy zone) Resistance / Sell Watch Zone: 4235 – 4238 Trading Scenarios ⭐️ Scenario 1 – Sell at Resistance Sell: 4235 – 4238 SL: 4243 TP: 4222 – 4205 – 4190 ⭐️ Scenario 2 – Buy at Support Buy: 4164 – 4167 SL: 4159 TP: 4182 – 4202 – 4225 👉 Follow Lana on TradingView for the earliest gold updates
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
1
XAUUSD – Volume Profile: Sell at VAH, Buy at POC within a widE..XAUUSD – Volume Profile: Sell at VAH, Buy at POC within a wide range Gold is trading within a fairly large range on H1, with prices hesitating after last weekend's drop. The current phase is essentially a retracement wave in the H1 downtrend, so I prioritize trading according to the liquidity zones of the Volume Profile rather than guessing a new trend. Prices are approaching VAH – the high-value area, and below is the POC cluster + rising channel support – the two main zones for my decision today. 🎯 SCENARIO 1 – SELL AT VAH / SUPPLY ZONE Sell: 4.221 – 4.223 SL: 4.228 TP: 4.212 – 4.200 – 4.178 – 4.150 Logic: VAH on H1 is around 4.22x, coinciding with the resistance zone above the small rising channel. This is also the area where strong selling pressure previously pushed prices back into the value zone, so if prices retest and form weak candles (long upper wick, small body), I prioritize short-term selling according to the retracement wave. The TP levels are sequentially: bottom of the balance zone (4.212), bottom of the range (4.200), and deeper liquidity bottoms 4.178 – 4.150. This order aligns with the H1 retracement phase but still goes against the larger uptrend, so I maintain a moderate volume, with a hard SL at 4.228. ⭐️ SCENARIO 2 – BUY AT POC / CHANNEL SUPPORT Buy: 4.193 – 4.195 SL: 4.187 TP: 4.210 – 4.235 – 4.260 Logic: The 4.193–4.195 area is the POC – the center of the large volume zone, also coinciding with the rising channel support line and short-term support zone. If after selling down from VAH, prices touch the POC again and show clear buying support, I see this as an intraday reversal point to buy back according to the channel range. Target to return to the middle of the channel (4.210), then the old upper boundary 4.235–4.260. This scenario takes advantage of the fact that large capital flows often protect the POC, especially when there is no strong negative news to completely break the structure. 1️⃣ Brief Macro Context Global capital flows are trending towards other risky assets like Chinese stocks, benefiting from AI, economic recovery expectations, and low valuations. MSCI China has surged this year, surpassing the S&P 500. In commodities, Goldman Sachs still forecasts NYMEX natural gas prices at $4.50/MMBtu by summer 2026, indicating that major investors maintain a positive outlook on the commodity group. In summary, risk-on does not eliminate the role of gold, but causes gold to fluctuate widely according to rotating capital flows, making it more suitable for trading strategies at clear volume/liquidity zones rather than holding one-sided expectations. 2️⃣ Technical View & Execution Plan H1: prices are moving within a slight rising channel, but the entire structure is still within the retracement wave of the previous decline. VAH 4.22x: where sellers have a short-term advantage, suitable for the Sell test VAH scenario. POC 4.19x + support zone: where buyers are likely to appear to protect the channel. Plan: Only enter orders at the defined zones, no FOMO in the range. Risk for each scenario is limited to 1–2% of the account, no widening SL: Sell wrong above 4.228 → exit, wait for a new structure. Buy wrong below 4.187 → stay out, don't try to "catch a falling knife." If prices break strongly out of both VAH and POC and hold stable, I will stop these two scenarios and update my view. If you find this scenario useful, please follow the account on TradingView and leave a comment on whether you prioritize Sell VAH or Buy POC today – I always read feedback before writing the next article.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LiamTradingFX
GOLD M15 OUTLOOKGold (XAUUSD) on the M15 timeframe is currently executing a textbook technical maneuver: price is tapping into a key Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) zone. This zone, derived from Fibonacci retracement theory, represents a high-probability reversal area where institutional order flow often clusters. The setup is promising, but the key to transforming this potential into profit lies in one disciplined step: waiting for Lower Time Frame (LTF) confirmation before initiating any buy trade.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by DCBFOREXTRADING
XAUUSD – Ahead of NFP: buy according to Wolfe Wave, watch for ..XAUUSD – Ahead of NFP: buy according to Wolfe Wave, watch for sell in the expansion area Gold continues its upward momentum as the USD weakens significantly, breaking the downtrend line and forming a Wolfe Wave pattern on H1. The price is currently fluctuating around the POC – VAH cluster of the distribution area, making it easy for a price reaction to occur before the NFP is released. During this period, I prioritize buying according to the main trend, but still prepare a short-term sell scenario in the overly high price area if the market "blows" too much before the news. 🎯 Scenario 1 – PRIORITY BUY AT POC/VAH Buy: 4.209 – 4.212 SL: 4.205 TP: 4.233 – 4.260 – 4.299 Reason: The price is retesting the POC – VAH cluster right after breaking above the downtrend line. The Wolfe Wave pattern targets a higher price area, suitable for the continuation of the upward trend scenario. The 4.209–4.212 area is a region with good liquidity, allowing for a short SL but still attractive R:R. 🔁 Scenario 2 – SELL REACTION IN HIGH PRICE AREA Sell (only enter when there is a clear reversal signal): 4.323 – 4.325 SL: 4.333 Reference TP: 4.299 – 4.260 – 4.233 Reason: The 4.323–4.325 area is the upper expansion area, coinciding with the resistance of the Wolfe Wave and the old supply area. If before NFP the price is "pushed" to this area but H1 candles show long upper shadows, weakening volume, I see this as an opportunity to sell against the wave back to the POC/support areas below. This is a counter-trend order, the volume should be small, enter-exit decisively. 1️⃣ Fundamental view before NFP The USD is trying to recover from the late October bottom but is held back by expectations that the Fed will soon turn dovish. Recent data shows the US economy is cooling down, the labor market is slowing, increasing the likelihood of the Fed cutting 25bps in the upcoming FOMC meeting. The Government Accountability Office opens an investigation with the "Fed critic," while Mr. Hassett states that the Fed may cut rates – all reinforcing the "peak rate has passed" narrative. Job cuts according to the Challenger report decreased sharply compared to the previous month, but overall the picture still shows growth is slowing, suitable for a medium-term gold-supportive environment. In summary: fundamental news still leans towards supporting gold, NFP only determines the speed and depth of the adjustment, not "breaking the trend" unless the discrepancy is too extreme. 2️⃣ Technical analysis from the chart H1 shows gold has broken the downtrend line, returning to trade above the POC area of the previous decline. Wolfe Wave appears with a target higher than the current price area, reinforcing the buy wave view. The price is clinging around POC – VAH: If it holds above 4.209–4.212, it is likely to head towards 4.26x–4.29x. If strongly rejected at 4.32x before or after NFP, this is a favorable area to watch for a sell reaction. 3️⃣ Plan & risk management Prioritize BUY scenario 4.209–4.212, SL 4.205, TP 4.233–4.260–4.299. Only activate SELL scenario 4.323–4.325 if: If NFP causes too wide price fluctuations, prioritize waiting for the price to stabilize around POC before setting up again. If this perspective helps you shape your plan before NFP, follow the TradingView account and leave a comment
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
1
XAUUSD – H1 in a downtrend channel, prioritize selling at the...XAUUSD – H1 in a downtrend channel, prioritize selling at the channel top – buying at the trendline & Fibonacci On H1, gold is sliding in a clear downtrend channel after peaking around 4.22x–4.23x. In this context, I do not enter trades in the middle of the channel but only trade at two extreme zones: Sell at the resistance/channel top. Buy at the trendline + Fibonacci below. 🎯 Today's trading plan 1️⃣ SELL Scenario – Watch for shorting at the resistance zone 4.203 Sell: 4.203 SL: 4.225 (aggressive) 4.249 (safer for swing) TP: 4.183 – 4.161 – 4.143 Zone 4.203 is: Resistance of the H1 downtrend channel. Near the supply zone where price was previously sold off strongly. If the price retests 4.203 during the day, I prioritize selling according to the downtrend channel, with the first target near the bottom at 4.183, further at 4.161–4.143 – corresponding to the demand zone in the middle of the channel. 2️⃣ BUY Scenario – Buy at the channel bottom: trendline + Fibonacci Buy: 4.142 SL: 4.119 (aggressive) 4.098 (safer) TP: 4.170 – 4.198 – 4.205 Zone 4.142 is a confluence of the long-term uptrend line + Fibonacci + old support zone. If gold is sold off to this area and a good price reaction appears (wick candles, increased buying volume), I see this as an opportunity to buy against the corrective phase, expecting the price to return to the middle of the channel and resistance 4.20x. 1️⃣ Basic Context USD is trying to recover from the lowest bottom since late October, creating short-term corrective pressure on gold. However, the USD's upward momentum is limited by expectations that the Fed will soon shift to a dovish stance: Recent macro data shows the US economy is cooling down, with growth slowing. The labor market shows signs of weakening in November. This increases the probability of the Fed cutting 25bps at next week's FOMC, keeping the medium-term picture for gold positive, even though it is currently undergoing technical correction. In summary: short-term has room to decline in the H1 channel, but medium-term gold is still supported by rate cut expectations. 2️⃣ Technical & Market Sentiment View The H1 downtrend channel represents a distribution/correction phase after the previous strong rally. Every time the price touches the upper edge of the channel, selling pressure appears, indicating that shorts are still taking advantage of high areas to enter. Conversely, the lower edge of the channel + long-term trendline around 4.14x is where medium-term buying power is likely to appear – those waiting for a discount to re-enter the larger trend. Current sentiment: Short-term traders: prioritize selling at resistance, buying at support within the channel. Medium-term traders: wait for the deeper 4.14x zone to accumulate gradually, instead of FOMO at the 4.20x zone. 3️⃣ Execution Plan Do not enter trades in the middle of the channel, only act at: 4.203 for the SELL scenario. 4.142 for the BUY scenario. Each trade limits risk to 1–2% of the account, choose one of the two SL levels (aggressive/safer) depending on the trading timeframe. If the price decisively breaks the downtrend channel (H1 candle closes above 4.249 or below 4.098), I stop all current scenarios and reassess the structure. If you find this perspective useful, follow the TradingView account.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LiamTradingFX
XAUUSD – LANA WATCH SELL 4190–4194 AND BUY 4100–4102 ON 04/12 XAUUSD – LANA WATCH SELL 4190–4194 AND BUY 4100–4102 ON 04/12 1. Fundamental Analysis The current context revolves around concerns of a global economic growth slowdown. In a recession cycle, yields in the US and Europe tend to drop faster than in Japan due to more "room" to cut interest rates. This leads to: Narrowing yield spreads, USD/JPY carry trade transactions being reversed. Increased risk aversion, with capital flows tending to return to JPY and defensive assets like gold. If the risk-off wave is strong, USD/JPY may not decline gradually but could experience quite rapid drops. In such an environment, currency market volatility can easily lead to strong fluctuations in gold, creating trading opportunities in more attractive liquidity zones instead of chasing prices. 2. Technical Analysis On the H1 chart, gold is compressed between: Descending trendline above: connecting from the peak area 4,245–4,260, selling pressure remains present whenever the price touches this trendline. Ascending trendline below: extending from the bottom of last month, acting as support for the medium-term trend. Some key areas on the chart: Timing zone 4190–4194: close to the descending trendline, coinciding with the previous Volume cluster, is the area Lana prioritizes for short-term Sell watch. Buy POC – VAL Volume Profile zone below: a price area where the market previously traded heavily, buying force may return when the price adjusts deeply. Buy Liquidity zone 4100–4102 lies right above the large ascending trendline: this is a beautiful liquidity area to seek Buy opportunities in line with the longer trend if the market shakes off strongly. In summary, Lana leans towards the scenario: The price may rebound to test 4190–4194 then weaken. If it drops deeply to 4100–4102 and holds the ascending trendline, this will be the area to consider buying back up. 3. Price Areas to Watch Resistance / Sell watch zone: 4190 – 4194 Invalidation zone for Sell setup (wide SL): 4219 – 4231 Support / Buy watch zone: 4100 – 4102 SL levels for Buy setup: 4081 – 4063 – 4045 (depending on individual risk tolerance) 4. Trading Scenarios ⭐️ Short-term Sell scenario Sell entry: 4190 – 4194 SL: 4219 – 4231 TP: 4181 – 4155 ⭐️ Deep Buy scenario following the trend Buy entry: 4100 – 4102 SL: 4081 – 4063 – 4045
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
8
XAU/USD 03 December 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 20 October 2025. Price has printed as per previous intraday expectation by printing a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms, bullish pullback phase initiation. Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with regards to depth of pullback. Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,380.990. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 02 December 2025. Price has printed as per analysis dated 14 November 2025 where I mentioned price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,245.195. Price subsequently printed a bearish CHoCH, however, as mentioned yesterday, I would closely monitor price with respect to depth of pullback. Price did not pull back with any significance, therefore, I will apply discretion and not classify an iBOS. I have marked this with red dotted and dashed lines. Price has since printed another bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within an established internal range, however, as per yesterday, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback. Intraday expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,264.700. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements, particularly against China, are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD – H1 sideways, prioritize trading at the liquidity ....XAUUSD – H1 sideways, prioritize trading at the liquidity zone Today gold is sideways on H1, price is fluctuating around the balance zone, not choosing a clear direction. In this state, I do not chase the price in the middle of the range but only trade at both ends of the liquidity zone, where there is high volume and clear traces of cash flow. 🎯 BUY Scenario – Watch for “Liquidity Buy” below the range bottom Buy: 4.191 – 4.194 SL: 4.187 TP: 4.212 – 4.235 – 4.260 – 4.290 The 4.191–4.194 area on the chart is the liquidity buy zone: Coincides with the nearest bottom of the strong shakeout. Near the bottom of the thick volume cluster, indicating absorption of previous sell pressure. If the price sweeps to this area, I prioritize buying back up to the upper boundary of the range, gradually closing from 4.212 to 4.26x. This order follows the idea: capturing the buying flow defending around the bottom of the accumulation zone. 🔁 SELL Scenario – Watch for Sell POC at the upper boundary 4.237–4.240 Sell: 4.237 – 4.240 SL: 4.245 TP: 4.220 – 4.202 – 4.180 – 4.155 The 4.237–4.240 area is the Sell POC / supply zone: Where thick volume concentrates at the top. Confluence with the current range top and previous price touches that were sold down. When the price retraces to this area, I prioritize selling down to the middle and bottom of the range, keeping a tight SL above 4.245 to avoid a real breakout. 1️⃣ Larger Context – Market shocked but not easily collapsed 2013 – Abenomics: BOJ eased extremely, market fluctuated violently but no systemic crisis occurred. 2022–2023: Fed raised rates very quickly, risky assets adjusted but eventually recovered structure. Lesson: modern financial markets have good "elasticity" to policy shocks. For gold, this means: current adjustments are not signs of trend collapse, but just a process of redistributing positions. Our task is to read price and liquidity zones, not overreact to each short-term news cycle. 2️⃣ Technical View from H1 Price is moving sideways between two boundaries ~4.19x and ~4.24x. Volume Profile shows a large volume cluster in the middle, while both ends of the range are thin liquidity areas – very suitable for stop sweeps and reversals. Further below, the Buy Zone POC around 4.16x remains the last support area of the current trend; if the price breaks this area and closes below 4.155, the short-term uptrend structure is truly threatened. In the context of no clear breakout up or down, I choose a mean-reversion strategy: Buy at the bottom of the liquidity zone, Sell at the top of the supply zone, until the market breaks the sideways structure. 3️⃣ Today's Trading Plan Only act in two areas: Buy 4.191–4.194, SL 4.187, TP 4.212–4.235–4.260–4.290. Sell 4.237–4.240, SL 4.245, TP 4.220–4.202–4.180–4.155. Do not enter orders in the middle of the range, avoid being "bitten at both ends". For each scenario, keep risk at 1–2% of the account, do not widen SL. If the price breaks strongly out of one of the boundary areas and holds steady, I stop the range trading strategy and wait for a new structure. If you find this analysis useful, you can follow the account on TradingView and leave comments on today's scenario – prioritize BUY at the range bottom or SELL above the POC area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LiamTradingFX
XAUUSD – LANA WATCHES FOR BUY WAVE 5, SKIPS SELL ORDERS ON 03/12XAUUSD – LANA WATCHES FOR BUY WAVE 5, SKIPS SELL ORDERS ON 03/12 1. Quick Summary Main View: H2 – H4 Data: TPO, Footprint, Elliott wave, futures/options Idea: Today Lana prioritizes BUY with wave 5, skips Sell orders. Lana's focus area: buy timing 4190–4194, SL 4185, TP according to wave 5 peak around 4315. 2. Futures & Market Profile Data 1. US Session TPO – “Thin” Pattern Last night's TPO formed a Thin Profile, often appearing after strong shakeouts in an uptrend. VA was accepted at a low area but the Market didn't spend much time here, the upper auction areas are still incomplete → high probability of price returning to test these levels. 2. Footprint – Trap Sell with Strong Delta On the H1 candle, Footprint recorded a Trap Sell with Delta ~ -1113 contracts. The Sell side tried to push the price down but was completely absorbed, the candle bottom became an area with a large number of trapped Sell orders. Lana sees this as a sign: Smart money is accumulating, shaking off weak Buy positions, and collecting more FOMO Sell bottoms. 3. Elliott Wave & Key Price Areas The raw chart according to Elliott wave is still following the scenario Lana shared earlier this week: Monday: confirmed the up wave scenario. Tuesday: wave 4 correction, short Sell opportunity. Wednesday (today): waiting for wave 5 to rise, Lana prioritizes Buying. Buy timing area 4190–4194 coincides with the nearest swing bottom and accumulation area – strong liquidity. Ideal TP: Minimum: current wave 5 peak. If the wave expands nicely: around 4315, or higher are the Liquidity clusters 4250–4260 and 4365–4370 as on the H4/H2 chart. 4. Trading Scenario ⭐️ Priority Scenario – ONLY BUY Buy: 4190 – 4194 SL: 4185 TP: Near the current wave 5 peak Far: around 4315 (everyone can split profits according to their personal plan) During the day, Lana does not encourage selling against the trend. This is Lana's personal perspective based on TPO, Footprint, and Elliott wave. 👉 Follow Lana on TradingView for the earliest updates
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
GOLD Elliott H1: waiting for ABC correction in a strong uptrendXAUUSD – Elliott H1: waiting for ABC correction in a strong uptrend Brian – Short sell correction, prioritize Buy according to the major trend 1. Market snapshot On H1, gold has just broken the upward Dow structure and completed 5 small waves – a common signal before an ABC correction. The larger trend is still a very strong uptrend: gold is on track for its best year since 1979, up more than 60% in 2025, with the YTD performance gap between XAU and BTC continuing to widen. Therefore: selling is only a short-term strategy, while the priority position for next week remains to buy on deep corrections. 2. Technical structure – Elliott H1 H1: 5 upward waves have completed → the base scenario is for the price to create a wave A down – B retrace – C down before continuing the trend. The price area above 4,227–4,238 is a zone with selling liquidity + retesting the structure after breaking the H1 peak. The 4,183–4,173 area (Fibo 0.618 of the most recent increase) is the main demand zone, reasonable to watch for buying in line with the trend with a good R:R. 3. Trading plan for next week Scenario 1 – Short sell ABC correction (counter-trend) Idea: take advantage of the A/B correction wave after 5 upward waves on H1. Sell watch area: 4,227–4,238 SL: 4,246 Reference targets: TP1: area 4,200–4,195 TP2: towards the Fibo/Buy zone 4,183–4,173 Note: this is a counter-trend order, only suitable for accounts accepting intraday risk, volume should be smaller than buy orders. Scenario 2 – Buy according to the major trend at Fibo 0.618 (priority) Idea: wait for the ABC correction to complete, buy at the "discount" price area according to Elliott and Fibo. Buy watch area: 4,183–4,173 (Fibo 0.618 + technical support area). SL: 4,166 Target direction: Initially: return to the 4,220–4,230 area Extended: depending on developments, it may aim for new highs in the context of a record growth year. 4. Fundamental context – Why prioritize Buy on deep corrections? Gold increased +6% in November, marking the 4th consecutive month of gains. Previously it was +3.7% in October and +11.9% in September – a very rare series of increases, reinforcing the long-term bull market story. When an asset has risen strongly but still maintains momentum for many consecutive months, ABC-type corrections on H1 are often just opportunities for new money to participate, rather than trend reversals.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
1
XAU/USD 02 December 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Chart: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 20 October 2025. Price has printed as per previous intraday expectation by printing a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms, bullish pullback phase initiation. Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with regards to depth of pullback. Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,380.990. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed as per analysis dated 14 November 2025 where I mentioned price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,245.195. Price subsequently printed a bearish CHoCH, however, as mentioned yesterday, I would closely monitor price with respect to depth of pullback. Price did not pull back with any significance, therefore, I will apply discretion and not classify an iBOS. I have marked this with red dotted and dashed lines. Price has since printed another bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within an established internal range, however, as per yesterday, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback. Intraday expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,264.700. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements, particularly against China, are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD – Healthy Correction, Short Sell Priority – Buy at POCXAUUSD – Healthy Correction, Short Sell Priority – Buy at POC Gold has just touched a new peak around 4,264 – the highest level in six weeks – and is entering a technical correction phase. The sell-side liquidity has been tested, but the medium-term uptrend remains, so I choose to trade both ways: Short sell when the price rebounds to the supply zone. Buy back at the POC zone – where buying flow is likely to return. 🎯 Scenario 1 – SELL AT POC ZONE 4,236–4,238 Sell: 4,236 – 4,238 SL: 4,244 TP: 4,220 – 4,202 – 4,180 – 4,145 On H1, the 4,236–4,238 zone is the POC + peak volume distribution zone, coinciding with the upper edge of the sideways price cluster after a steep rise. If the price bounces back to retest this zone, I prioritize scalping sell according to the current correction rhythm, targeting: Returning to 4,220 – 4,202: short-term support zone. Deeper to 4,180 – 4,145: near the bottom of the previous demand zone, also where it converges with the large uptrend line. This is a counter-trend medium-term order, so I keep the volume small and the SL must be firm at 4,244. ⭐️ Scenario 2 – BUY AT BUY ZONE POC 4,156–4,158 Buy: 4,156 – 4,158 SL: 4,150 TP: 4,175 – 4,190 – 4,225 – 4,250 The 4,156–4,158 zone is the Buy Zone POC on the chart: Confluence with the uptrend line from the bottom. Price zone where the market previously accumulated strongly before exploding to 4.26x. If gold corrects deeply here and creates a good price reaction (wick candles, increased buying volume), I see it as a DCA opportunity following the medium-term uptrend, aiming to recover to the 4.19x – 4.225 zone, further to 4.25x. 1. Basic Context Gold and silver are both benefiting from expectations that the Fed will soon cut interest rates, a weakening USD, and signs of a slowdown in the US economy. Gold increased by +6% in November, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains, and has risen over 60% this year – on track to become the strongest year in 46 years. Economic-political instability continues to drive money towards safe assets, with silver further supported by industrial demand, indirectly reinforcing positive sentiment for the precious metals group. On December 2, the market focuses on: 08:00: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks. 22:00: Fed Governor Bowman testifies before the House Financial Services Committee. These two events could trigger strong intraday volatility, especially if the Fed's tone differs from the "easing" expectations. 2. Technical & Market Sentiment View After a steep rise to 4.26x, gold is gradually sliding along the H1 down channel, indicating a short-term sell-off phase to take profits. Sell POC 4,236–4,238 is the zone where sellers are trying to suppress, each time the price returns close, supply force appears. Below, Buy Zone POC 4,156–4,158 is the zone where buyers previously absorbed most of the sell orders and then pushed the price up; it is highly likely this will be where they protect the medium-term uptrend. Current sentiment: Short-term: the sell side dominates due to the profit-taking effect after creating a new peak. Medium-term: money flow still prioritizes holding gold, so I am not in a hurry to reverse the bias unless the 4,145 zone is completely broken. 3. Action Plan Short sell if the price rebounds to 4,236–4,238, SL 4,244, TP 4,220–4,202–4,180–4,145. Wait to buy back at 4,156–4,158 if there is a good reaction, SL 4,150, TP 4,175–4,190–4,225–4,250. Keep the risk of each scenario within 1–2% of the account, absolutely do not widen the SL when the market goes against. During the hours when Powell/Bowman speaks, prioritize reducing volume or staying out, avoiding being swept by spikes.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
XAUUSD – LANA'S VIEW ON ADJUSTMENT PHASE 02/12 ...XAUUSD – LANA'S VIEW ON ADJUSTMENT PHASE 02/12 1. Quick Update Today, Lana views gold in the context of a short-term adjustment, mainly wave 4 according to Elliott, after a fairly strong previous increase. The goal is to take advantage of the technical decline to: Short sell to a lower price range Then buy back at a beautiful support area according to the main trend 2. Technical Analysis The Liquidity zone 4250–4260 on the weekly frame is a very strong liquidity area according to Market Profile. Lana sees this as an area prone to a “fake break”: price pushes up to take liquidity and then adjusts down. Based on Session data, Lana prioritizes the scenario: Price is rejected around the above area Forming a decline to the 418x area to complete wave 4 adjustment. After wave 4 is completed, the medium-term uptrend can still continue. 3. Price Areas to Watch Strong Liquidity / resistance area: 4250 – 4260 Short sell watch area: 4236 – 4241 Buy back area according to trend: 4180 – 4175 4. Trading Scenarios ⭐️ Scenario 1 – Sell according to adjustment phase Sell: 4236 – 4241 SL: above 4245 Target: 418x (can gradually close around 4180) ⭐️ Scenario 2 – Buy according to trend after adjustment Buy: 4180 – 4175 SL: 4170 TP: minimum 20 points (everyone can choose the nearest resistance area to gradually close) Lana's priority: Do not rush to Buy right at the Liquidity area 4250–4260 Be patient and wait for the price to reach the 4236–4241 area to Sell, then 4180–4175 to Buy according to the trend. This is Lana's personal view on the adjustment phase on 02/12, everyone should consider carefully and manage risks before entering a trade. 💛
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
XAU/USD 01 December 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 20 October 2025. Price has printed as per previous intraday expectation by printing a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms, bullish pullback phase initiation. Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with regards to depth of pullback. Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,380.990. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed as per analysis dated 14 November 2025 where I mentioned price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,245.195. Price has subsequently printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback. Intraday expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,256.250. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements, particularly against China, are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD – Early Week Buying Continues, Watch for Closing at ...XAUUSD – Early Week Buying Continues, Watch for Closing at Fibo Extension Zone Gold enters the week in a very special context: +6.0% in November, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase. This streak follows a +3.7% in October and +11.9% in September. Since the beginning of the year, gold has increased by about 60.7%, on track to become the strongest year in nearly half a century. With a market making such history, I am not looking for a peak. I continue to prioritize buying with the trend, only selling briefly when the price hits the high Fibo extension zone. 🎯 Scenario 1 – BUY THE DIP FOLLOWING THE UPWARD TREND Buy: 4,194 – 4,195 SL: 4,185 TP: 4,210 – 4,235 – 4,270 – 4,295 The 4,194–4,195 zone on H1 is the VAL/volume distribution bottom area after a steep increase, coinciding with the short-term support zone in the current structure. If the price neatly adjusts back here and shows a good reaction candle, I prioritize accumulating more BUY positions following the trend. Profit targets are: 4,210 – 4,235: near resistance zone, also around the 1.618 Fibo of the increase. 4,270 – 4,295: 2.618 Fibonacci extension zone – where profit-taking pressure and short-term reversal potential may appear stronger. 🔁 Scenario 2 – SELL SHORT-TERM AT 2.618 EXTENSION ZONE Sell: 4,285 – 4,287 SL: 4,295 TP: 4,262 – 4,240 – 4,210 This is a scenario against the main trend, only for small volume short-term orders. If the price is pushed to the 4,285–4,287 zone (near the 2.618 Fibo peak) but cannot maintain the upward momentum, leaving a long upper shadow or a clear reversal candle pattern, I will consider SELLing back to the 4.26x–4.24x zone and deeper to 4,210. 1. Technical Perspective from the Chart The trend on H1/H4 is still clearly upward, with a series of higher lows, and the price clinging along the upward channel. The most recent increase has extended above the 1.618 Fibo mark, currently heading towards the 2.618 zone around 4.28x–4.29x. Below, the VAL around 4.19x is the first support; deeper is the sell-side liquidity zone around 4.16x – where many buyer stops are concentrated, only suitable for a deeper intraday adjustment scenario. With this structure, any pullback to the immediate support zone I see as an opportunity to join the upward wave, not a reversal signal. 2. Market Sentiment & Action Plan After a strong multi-month increase, the market is in a "chasing gold" state – FOMO is quite evident. This is why I no longer buy near the resistance zone, but wait for the price to return to the market-accepted zone (VAL/POC) for a good R:R entry point. The SELL scenario is only a backup plan when the price is pushed to the high Fibo extension zone and fails, triggering massive profit-taking from previous buy positions. My plan: Prioritize BUY 4,194–4,195, SL 4,185, TP 4,210–4,235–4,270–4,295. Only SELL short at 4,285–4,287 if there is a clear reversal signal, SL 4,295, TP 4,262–4,240–4,210. In each scenario, the risk is limited to 1–2% of the account, no widening of SL, and ready to stay out if the price breaks the established structure.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
XAUUSD – LANA PRIORITIZES BUYING ACCORDING TO SWING WAVES AT...XAUUSD – LANA PRIORITIZES BUYING ACCORDING TO SWING WAVES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK Fundamental Analysis The Fed has just announced it will end the QT (quantitative tightening) program from December 1st, accompanied by a target federal interest rate of 3.75–4%. When the Fed stops QT, the pace of balance sheet reduction slows down, meaning the pressure to withdraw liquidity from the market decreases, which is usually a positive factor for risky assets and gold. Mechanism: QE: balance sheet expands, injecting liquidity into the market. QT: balance sheet contracts, withdrawing liquidity. The temporary halt of QT leads the market to expect the Fed is being softer with monetary policy, thereby supporting the medium-term upward trend of gold. In this context, Lana perceives that gold at the beginning of the week still has room to rise, but there will be fluctuations around important liquidity zones. Technical Analysis On the H4 chart, the price structure is following an upward Elliott wave, with clear waves (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5). The current upward wave has not yet shown a major reversal signal. The Swing zone 4190–4195 below is the nearest important bottom, acting as the main short-term support. This is also where Lana prioritizes watching for swing wave buying. Above, two notable Liquidity zones: 4250–4260: near liquidity zone, potential for fake break/adjustment. 4365–4370: further liquidity zone, coinciding with the old peak, likely a strong profit-taking area if the price continues to expand the upward wave. Lana's preferred scenario: gold may slightly adjust to the swing zone 4190–4195, then continue to expand the wave to test the upper liquidity zones in turn. However, right at the Liquidity zone, the market is very prone to stop sweeps, fake breaks, so Lana does not encourage chasing Buy at these zones. Price Zones to Watch Main Support (Swing & Buy Zone): 4190 – 4195 Resistance / Liquidity Zones: 4250 – 4260 4365 – 4370 Trading Scenario Buy 4190 – 4195 SL: 4185 TP: 4250 – 4260 – 4365 – 4370
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
XAUUSD – Fibo H4 supports the upward trend, prioritize buying...XAUUSD – Fibo H4 supports the upward trend, prioritize buying at POC for next week Gold closed Friday's session around 4,215 after a strong rise since the CME error report. On the H4 chart, the upward structure is clearly forming and relatively stable, with the price just breaking out of a multi-day accumulation zone and entering Fibonacci extension levels. Given the current context, I continue to prioritize medium-term buying when the price adjusts to POC, rather than chasing at new highs. 🎯 Main trading plan – BUY THE DIP ACCORDING TO FIBONACCI & POC Buy entry: around 4,187 SL: 4,175 TP reference: 4,225 – 4,240 – 4,290 – 4,300 The above profit-taking targets are referenced from the H4 Fibonacci extension cluster, with the area around 1.618 – 2.618 being levels where strong market profit-taking is likely to occur. For each position, I only accept risk within the 1–2% account range, prioritizing long-term market survival over trying to catch the top and bottom of a wave. Key level: 4,160 is currently a strong support and the "lifeline" of the H4 upward trend. If the price breaks down and closes the H4 candle below 4,160, the current upward structure is considered broken, I will temporarily halt the BUY scenario and will rebuild the plan, possibly considering a deep correction SELL scenario in the next article. 1. Basic context The recent strong recovery momentum of gold temporarily slowed down after an unsuccessful attempt to rise above the 4,160 area. However, the recent upward momentum occurred in the context of the USD weakening again, despite US bond yields trying to recover across the curve. On a larger timeframe, gold is heading for the fourth consecutive monthly increase, following the breakout in October when prices made the market look towards the 4,400 area. Prolonged geopolitical concerns along with expectations that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates provide enough reasons for buyers to maintain a medium-term position, despite short-term fluctuations. Overall, the fundamental foundation still supports the upward trend, unless there is a major change in interest rate expectations or systemic risk. 2. H4 Technical Analysis – Fibonacci Perspective The previous accumulation area around 4,160–4,185 has been broken up by a series of consecutive bullish candles, confirming the higher high – higher low structure on H4. The volume POC has shifted up around the 4,187 area, indicating this is a dense trading area before the breakout – suitable for waiting for a price retest and then continuing to buy. Fibonacci extension levels from the most recent upward wave show important resistance clusters above around: 1.618: area 4.24x – first profit-taking target, likely to experience fluctuations. 2.618: area 4.35x–4.36x – expansion level for a very strong continuation trend scenario. With this structure, any adjustment around 4,187 but holding 4,160 is considered an opportunity to increase the medium-term BUY position, not a reversal signal. 3. Market sentiment & action plan After a strong rise, the market is in a FOMO mindset chasing prices at high levels. This is usually a stage where unexpected adjustments are likely to occur to "shake off" late positions. I do not participate in that chasing game. Instead, I wait for the price to return to the POC area 4,187, where a large volume has accumulated, to trade with a better R:R and tighter SL. If the buyers are truly strong, they will protect the 4,160–4,187 area; if not, observing from the sidelines after the structure is broken is safer than holding onto a viewpoint. Plan for next week: Prioritize buying around 4,187, SL 4,175, TP according to Fibo cluster 4,225–4,240–4,290–4,300. If the price breaks strongly below 4,160 and closes the H4 candle below, stop the entire BUY scenario, wait for a new structure, and then consider a correction SELL scenario. Do not chase buying when the price is close to high Fibo extension levels, unless there is a specific intraday setup with a very clear SL. If you find this perspective useful for next week's gold trading plan, please follow the TradingView account and leave a comment about the price area you are waiting to enter orders. I always read feedback to optimize sharing in future analyses.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
2