Bitcoin - Liquidity grab signals further downside!Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in a crucial phase within a broader consolidation structure. After a strong upward move, the price has encountered significant resistance and is showing signs of weakening buying pressure. On the daily chart, it is clear that the price has re-entered the triangle structure after a brief breakout above resistance.
 Liquidity Grab 
Around $116,000, a clear liquidity sweep can be observed. Above this level, many stop orders and short-position liquidity were clustered. After this liquidity was taken, the price reversed sharply downward — indicating that large market players likely used this move to take profits or open short positions.
 
Fake-Out from the Triangle Pattern 
The breakout above the triangle structure turned out to be a fake-out. Instead of holding above the trendline for confirmation, the price quickly fell back within the formation. This indicates buyer weakness and strengthens the bearish scenario. A fake-out above a consolidation pattern often leads to a move in the opposite direction — toward the lower boundary of the structure.
 Daily FVG 
The current candle is positioned within an important daily Fair Value Gap (FVG). If the daily close remains as it is, this bullish FVG will convert into a bearish FVG, meaning the area will now act as resistance. This suggests that bears are taking control and further downward price action is likely.
 Target 
After an upward fake-out that collects liquidity, price often moves to the opposite side of the pattern. In this case, that would be the lower side of the triangle. A drop toward $103,000–$104,000 is therefore the most likely scenario. This zone aligns with previous structural support and can serve as a logical target area.
 Conclusion 
Bitcoin is showing clear signs of exhaustion near the top of the range. The liquidity grab and fake-out from the triangle reinforce the bearish outlook. With the daily FVG flipping bearish and bullish momentum fading, a move down toward the $103,000–$104,000 zone appears to be the most probable next step — unless BTC unexpectedly manages to close above the FVG.
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SMT
Bitcoin - Will the bears push the price towards $104.000?Introduction 
Bitcoin is currently in a phase of consolidation following the recent sharp decline. For several days, the price has been forming a symmetrical triangle, indicating increasing tension between buyers and sellers. This phase is often seen as a period of preparation for a larger move. However, clear bullish momentum is still lacking, which increases the risk of a downward breakout.
 Triangle pattern 
The price is moving within a triangle pattern, where the highs are decreasing and the lows are slightly rising. This suggests a compression of liquidity and declining volatility. The upper boundary of the pattern acts as dynamic resistance, while the lower boundary serves as support. Once the price breaks out of this structure, the direction of the next major move will likely be determined. For now, the price seems trapped between these two key levels.
 Liquidity at the top with the bearish 4h FVG tested 
Yesterday, the upper side of the structure was tested, just above the 4-hour bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG). In that area, liquidity from previous highs was also located. The price reacted with a strong rejection and quickly fell back. This reaction confirmed that sellers still have control and that demand has weakened. The signal indicates that the market is struggling to break above $114,000.
 4h bearish FVG 
The 4-hour bearish FVG is located between approximately $108,600 and $111,300. This zone now serves as a key resistance area. Each time the price touches this region, selling pressure increases, limiting further upside movement. As long as this zone is not convincingly broken with volume, the short-term trend remains bearish. A breakout above this level could open the door to higher targets.
 Liquidity area at the bottom 
At the lower end of the triangle, there is a clear liquidity area around $103,500. This is where stop-losses from long positions and potential buy orders from large players are located, waiting for a liquidity grab. If the price moves into this area, a short wick downward could occur before a potential bounce takes place. Therefore, this level is important to monitor in case of a downward breakout.
 Conclusion 
BTC still shows no signs of strength. The rejection from the 4-hour bearish FVG above the liquidity zone points to a lack of buying interest. As long as the price remains within the triangle and trades below $113,000, the likelihood of a downward move remains higher. Only a convincing breakout above the upper boundary could temporarily improve market sentiment. Until then, the bears remain in control, with focus on the support around the lower liquidity zone.
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USD/JPY - Outlook🧭 USD/JPY – Outlook
 🕰️ Top-Down Bias
 
HTF still shows bearish structure 🐻 from the upper channel resistance near 152.00, rejecting a major zone after that last liquidity grab up top.
STF is ranging, trying to hold above the 150.00 mark — but momentum’s fading and sellers might be warming up.
 🧱 Technical Breakdown
 
 Weekly : Price tagged major resistance and failed to break higher. Room for continuation lower toward the 144–142 zone (confluence of weekly demand + SSL).
 Daily : Still in a broad ascending channel. Any push below 149.50 could open the path to 145 and deeper demand below 140.
 8H : Clear rejection from upper MTF trendline → expecting pullback to Target 1 (149), Target 2 (147), and possibly Target 3 (145) if momentum picks up.
Structure note: HTF still bearish, STF neutral/ranging = watch for break of short-term support to confirm the shift.
 🎯 Trade Zones
 
Sell Zone: 151.50–152.00 (liquidity sweep area)
 Targets : 149.00 🥇 | 147.00 🥈 | 145.00 🥉 | 140.00 (final HTF demand)
 Invalidation : 152.50 clean break & hold
 ⚙️ Risk Management
 
Keep stops above structure highs — price may sweep liquidity before reversing.
Watch DXY for extra confirmation before committing size 💡
 🔖 Summary
 
HTF supports bearish price action, while STF is still ranging with unclear direction. Expect HTF momentum to take over soon — eyes on 149.00 breakdown for the next big leg down.
Bitcoin - Is the top already in?Introduction 
This chart analyzes Bitcoin’s cyclical timing. The focus is on time, not price. It examines the number of days between structural moments such as cycle tops, cycle bottoms, and halvings. By comparing these intervals, we can understand rhythm and consistency. This helps determine whether the current cycle top may have already formed in early October.
 Cycle Top to Cycle Bottom 
The period from cycle top to cycle bottom represents the bear phase after a market peak. In the previous two cycles, this phase lasted about 365 days each. This pattern suggests that the market typically needs a year to recover. After that, a new accumulation phase usually begins. If the pattern holds, it provides a fairly predictable window for correction. It marks the transition from euphoria to rebuilding.
 Cycle Bottom to Cycle Top 
The phase from cycle bottom to cycle top defines the bull run itself. In the last two cycles, this period lasted 1,065 and 1,066 days. That is just under three years. During this time, Bitcoin rose from deep accumulation to a new all-time high. Based on current data, 1,065 days points to early October. In that month, a new ATH was reached. This makes the current phase consistent with past cycles. It supports the idea that the top may already be in.
 Cycle Top to Cycle Top 
The full duration from peak to peak measured 1,461 and 1,431 days in previous cycles. This shows a clear recurring rhythm. The market moves in fairly consistent four-year patterns. Comparing this with the current cycle shows a slight extension. If the peak occurred in early October, this cycle is longer than the last. That may suggest a more mature market. Growth is slower but structurally stronger.
 Halving to Cycle Top 
The time between a halving and the next cycle top is key. Halvings affect both supply and market sentiment. In past cycles, this interval was 518 and 548 days. We are now exactly at day 548 since the last halving. This aligns perfectly with historical timing. It supports the idea that the top was reached in early October. The moment fits the halving-to-top rhythm observed in earlier cycles.
 Conclusion 
Based on this timing analysis, it is very likely that the cycle top formed in early October. The bottom-to-top duration of 1,065 days and the halving-to-top of 548 days confirm this. Both match previous patterns. The current cycle is slightly longer than earlier ones, suggesting a slower rhythm. If Bitcoin sets a new ATH later, it would mark an extended cycle.
Timing alone does not guarantee future price direction. Macro factors, policy shifts, and liquidity events can all change the rhythm. Use timing cycles as context, not as prediction. Combine them with price structure and on-chain signals. Maintain active risk management, since longer cycles often bring higher volatility and larger deviations from historical averages.
Bitcoin - What to expect from this week?Introduction 
This analysis examines the recent price behavior of Bitcoin against USDT on the daily timeframe. The chart highlights several key technical concepts, including a liquidity sweep at the highs, a daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) acting as resistance, and the likelihood of a wick fill within a major imbalance zone. Together, these elements provide valuable insight into how institutional traders may be engineering liquidity and preparing for the next significant move. Understanding these areas can help traders anticipate high-probability reaction zones and better align with the market’s underlying structure.
 Liquidity sweep 
The market recently executed a liquidity sweep above previous swing highs, triggering buy stops and attracting breakout traders into the move. This sudden push to the upside was quickly rejected, signaling that smart money likely used this moment to gather liquidity and distribute positions. Liquidity sweeps often serve as the market’s way of collecting orders before a reversal or retracement, indicating that the bullish momentum may be temporarily exhausted. This event sets the stage for price to rebalance inefficiencies left behind during the rapid move.
 Daily FVG resistance 
Following the liquidity sweep, price left behind a clear daily Fair Value Gap, which represents an area of imbalance caused by strong displacement. This gap often acts as resistance, where price is expected to return and mitigate before potentially continuing lower. The FVG provides an ideal area for institutional traders to reposition, as it offers a point of confluence between inefficiency and structure. If price reacts bearishly within this zone, it would strengthen the bearish outlook and suggest a continuation toward lower levels.
 Wick fill 
The large wick seen during the recent sell-off is an important feature of this chart. Historically, big wicks tend to get filled by 50% to 65%, reflecting the market’s tendency to rebalance inefficiencies over time. The marked blue zone below shows where this fill is most likely to occur. This zone aligns closely with previous support levels and Fibonacci retracement levels, further reinforcing it as a potential area of interest. A wick fill into this region could provide liquidity for future bullish movement, allowing the market to establish a more solid foundation for the next impulsive leg upward.
 Conclusion 
In summary, the current daily structure of Bitcoin suggests that price has completed a liquidity sweep at the highs and is now in the process of rebalancing inefficiencies through a possible retracement. The daily Fair Value Gap above serves as a critical resistance zone where sellers may re-enter, while the wick fill area below marks a high-probability target for price to revisit before establishing new direction. Traders should monitor how price reacts to these two regions, a rejection from the FVG coupled with a move toward the wick fill zone could signal the next significant swing opportunity. In this environment, patience and precision are key, as the market seeks equilibrium before its next major directional move.
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Bitcoin - Shortterm correction in the bullish trend!Introduction 
The Bitcoin price action is currently moving within a structured range where both liquidity and fair value gaps (FVGs) are playing an important role in shaping potential market direction. By analyzing the chart, we can identify key areas of liquidity, resistance, and support that traders are likely to pay close attention to in the coming days. Understanding how price reacts around these zones will help anticipate whether bulls can maintain control or if bears will attempt to reclaim lost ground.
 Upside liquidity 
At the top of the range, we can see a clear liquidity area where price previously reversed. This liquidity pool represents buy-side liquidity, and the market could be drawn towards it as price seeks to sweep the highs. Liquidity is often targeted by the market before making a significant move in the opposite direction, which makes this area important to watch closely.
 Resistance from the 4h and daily FVG 
Before price can reach higher liquidity levels, it must contend with a strong resistance zone that overlaps with both the 4-hour and the daily fair value gap. This confluence strengthens the resistance, making it more likely that price will struggle to break through immediately. Traders will be watching for signs of rejection within this area, which could cause short-term pullbacks before any potential breakout.
 4h FVG and CME gap support 
On the downside, the 4-hour fair value gap aligns with the CME gap, providing a strong support level. This zone acts as an attractive area for price to retrace into before continuing higher. It is common for the market to return to such imbalances to fill inefficiencies, so a temporary dip into this support could serve as a healthy retracement before bulls attempt to push price further upward.
 Bullish inversion 
Another critical development is the inversion zone, where previous resistance has now flipped into support. This shift highlights that bulls are taking control of the market structure, strengthening the overall bullish outlook. As long as this inversion level holds, buyers are likely to defend it aggressively, reducing the probability of a deeper breakdown.
 Final thoughts 
Overall, the market remains in a bullish posture with upside liquidity acting as a magnet, but significant resistance awaits at the overlapping 4h and daily FVG. Short-term pullbacks into the 4h FVG and CME gap support are likely before the next major move upward. If the bullish inversion continues to hold, we could see a strong push towards the higher liquidity zones, potentially targeting levels beyond 117,000. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether bulls can maintain this control or if resistance proves too strong.
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EURUSD - Bears are taking control!Introduction 
This chart analysis of EUR/USD highlights key price action concepts such as liquidity grabs, fair value gaps, and inversions on the four-hour timeframe. By examining how the market has been moving recently, we can better understand where price may head next and how institutional activity could be shaping upcoming moves. The following sections break down the liquidity sweeps, the bearish and bullish setups, and the potential implications for future price direction.
 Liquidity grab at the upside 
The recent price movement shows a clear liquidity grab to the upside, where price aggressively pushed higher to take out resting buy stops above previous highs. This kind of move is typical of market makers and institutions seeking liquidity before reversing the price. Once those stops are cleared, the market often lacks the momentum to sustain higher levels, which can be a precursor to a reversal or deeper retracement.
 Liquidity grab at the downside 
After the upward liquidity sweep, the market also executed a downside liquidity grab. Price dipped lower to target sell-side liquidity, running stops beneath previous lows before showing signs of reacting. These moves are designed to trap both breakout traders and late sellers, creating the liquidity necessary for the next larger move. This back-and-forth price action emphasizes how the market often seeks liquidity in both directions before deciding on a sustained trend.
 4h bearish FVG 
A four-hour bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) has formed, which acts as a strong area of imbalance where price is likely to return. This zone provides a potential entry point for institutional traders looking to short, as it represents inefficiency in the market that has yet to be filled. As long as price respects this area and reacts bearishly upon re-entry, it strengthens the case for continuation to the downside.
 4h bullish inversion 
At the same time, there is a four-hour bullish inversion level, where previous resistance has flipped into potential support. This area can act as a temporary base for price to consolidate or retrace before resuming its bearish trajectory. If the inversion holds, we might see short-term bullish reactions, but the broader market structure still favors sellers as long as the bearish FVG remains intact.
 Final thoughts 
Overall, the current EUR/USD setup suggests that the market is in the process of engineering liquidity on both sides before deciding its next major move. The upside and downside liquidity grabs confirm the presence of institutional activity, while the bearish FVG highlights a potential point of interest for further selling. The bullish inversion may offer temporary support, but the broader bias remains bearish until proven otherwise. Traders should watch how price reacts to the highlighted zones, as these areas are likely to provide the clearest signals for the next significant move.
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Bitcoin - Will the parallel channel hold?Introduction 
The Bitcoin market is currently showing an interesting structure that offers both bullish and bearish possibilities. By analyzing the liquidity dynamics, the channel formation, and key areas of interest highlighted on the chart, we can gain a better understanding of the potential scenarios that may play out in the short to medium term. This analysis focuses on the recent liquidity sweep, the behavior within the rising channel, and the critical zones that could act as decision points for price movement.
 Liquidity sweep above the highs 
Recently, the market performed a liquidity sweep above the previous highs. This type of price action typically occurs when liquidity pools are triggered, trapping breakout traders and providing institutional players with favorable entries in the opposite direction. The sweep has set the stage for the next move, and it becomes crucial to see whether price sustains above this level or rejects it decisively.
 
Rising channel 
Price is currently trading within a rising channel, which often acts as a short-term bullish structure but can also precede reversals if broken to the downside. The channel is providing clear levels of support and resistance, with the midline serving as a short-term equilibrium point. As long as price remains inside this channel, traders should expect oscillations between its boundaries, but any break below it could trigger a stronger move toward lower support zones.
 Bearish scenario 
In the event that price fails to hold within the channel, the bearish scenario points toward a retest of the lower fair value gap (FVG) around the 113,000 level. This would align with a deeper correction, offering the market a chance to rebalance inefficiencies left behind during the recent bullish rally. A sustained breakdown from the channel could accelerate selling pressure, with liquidity below key lows acting as a magnet for price.
 Bullish scenario 
On the other hand, if price manages to respect the rising channel and reclaim the liquidity sweep level, the bullish scenario would see a continuation toward the higher 4-hour fair value gap around 119,000–120,000. This area is a major point of interest, as it represents an unfilled imbalance that could attract buyers if momentum continues. Holding above the midline of the channel would strengthen the bullish outlook and could even lead to a retest of previous highs.
 Final thoughts 
Overall, the market is at a decisive stage where both bullish and bearish outcomes remain valid. The liquidity sweep has created a reaction point, and the rising channel offers a clear framework for monitoring price behavior. Traders should remain flexible and prepared for either outcome, watching closely for confirmations such as a clean break of the channel or a strong reclaim of resistance levels. Ultimately, the reaction around the current structure will determine whether Bitcoin continues higher toward the upper fair value gap or corrects lower into the demand zone below.
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Bitcoin - Heading lower after hitting resistance?Introduction 
Looking at the current 4-hour Bitcoin chart, we can see that price action is moving into a crucial zone. After a strong upward move, Bitcoin has reached an area of resistance where multiple factors align, making it an important level to watch. The chart highlights fair value gaps (FVGs) both above and below, which are key points that could influence the next move. By analyzing these areas, we can form a clearer idea of the potential short-term trend and what traders might expect in the coming days.
 Bearish 4h FVG resistance and liquidity grab 
At the moment, price is testing a strong resistance level, which coincides with a 4-hour fair value gap. This area has already absorbed much of the short-side liquidity, meaning that stop losses from traders positioned against the uptrend have been triggered. This liquidity grab often signals exhaustion in the upward move and can serve as the starting point for a retracement. The resistance zone is proving to be difficult to break, and if the market fails to hold above it, we could see a shift in momentum toward the downside.
 4h bullish FVG to hold 
Just below the current price, there is a 4-hour bullish fair value gap that could act as support in the short term. If buyers step in and defend this area, it may temporarily stabilize the market and create a bounce. However, if this support fails to hold, it would open the path for further downside movement. The chart suggests that a break below this level would likely drive Bitcoin toward the next major target around the $112,000 region. This makes the bullish FVG a key decision point for the market.
 Target for the short 
If Bitcoin cannot sustain its position above the highlighted resistance zone, the downside target becomes more clear. The lower 4-hour fair value gap, sitting closer to $112,000, is marked as the target for the short. This is where price is likely to be drawn in order to rebalance inefficiencies left behind in the chart. Traders looking for bearish opportunities would see this as the logical area to aim for, as the market often gravitates toward unfilled gaps after liquidity grabs at the top.
 Final thoughts 
In conclusion, Bitcoin is currently at a critical point. The resistance area combined with the 4-hour FVG has absorbed liquidity, creating the possibility for a downward move. The short-term bullish FVG below is the level to watch, as a break here could confirm bearish continuation toward $112,000. On the other hand, if buyers manage to hold the current support, the structure may remain intact and prevent deeper downside. Overall, the chart suggests that the path of least resistance may now be lower, unless the market proves otherwise by breaking convincingly above resistance.
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XAUUSD 1H  - Breakout or Rejection SetupStructure | Trend | Key Reaction Zones
Gold is consolidating between the demand zone (3,620-3,636) and breakout zone (3,645-3,658). Lower highs show bearish pressure, but buyers are holding demand, creating a decision point.
Market Overview
Price action suggests a compression phase. If 3,640-3,645 breaks with bullish momentum, the market can rally strongly. On the other hand, rejection here may send gold back to the demand zone.
Key Scenarios
Bullish Case
(above 3,645-3,658)
Target 1: 3,660
• Target 2: 3,674
•* Target 3: 3,697
X Bearish Case
• Target 1: 3,620
Target 2: 3
3,615
* Target 3: 3,605
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance
: 3,645-3,658 / 3,674
Support
: 3,620 / 3,613
+
Disclaimer: For educational purposes only.
Not financial advice.
BTCUSD – 4H / Daily Testing Resistance, PO3 Setup PossibleBTCUSD is trading around $114,400 (≈ $114,300-114,500) and is showing resistance pressure in both the 4H & Daily timeframes. The price has bounced off lower structure but is now compressing right under a major resistance zone. This is appearing like a PO3 accumulation + possible breakout or rejection zone.
Possible Long Trade Setup:
	•	Entry: Consider going long if there’s a clean 4H candle close above $115,000, or a retest of support near $113,000-114,000 with strong bullish candle action.
	•	Target Levels:
	•	🎯 1st Target – $118,000
	•	🎯 2nd Target – $120,000+
	•	Invalidation: If price closes decisively below $112,500, bullish scenario is weakened and rejects may lead toward lower liquidity zones.
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EURUSD - Bullish momentum for the week!Introduction 
The EURUSD has been consolidating for a prolonged period, sweeping both upside and downside liquidity in the process. After the liquidity sweep to the downside, price reacted strongly by moving upwards, indicating a shift in market structure. The pair has since inverted the previously bearish 4-hour fair value gap, which now acts as a bullish reference point, and is currently holding within the 1-hour fair value gap. As long as price maintains this 1-hour FVG support, there remains a strong case for further upside movement.
 Liquidity Sweep 
The recent downside liquidity sweep was a significant turning point. By driving below key lows and collecting stop orders, EURUSD effectively cleared the market of weak positions. This was followed by a sharp rejection, represented by a wick, which signaled strong buying interest at these levels. Since then, the market has been climbing steadily, showing intent to challenge the higher liquidity levels resting above.
 Inversion 
Following the liquidity sweep, EURUSD inverted the bearish 4-hour fair value gap. What was previously an area of supply and resistance has now been reclaimed and transformed into a demand zone. This inversion is an important bullish signal because it indicates that sellers were absorbed and that buyers have successfully taken control. As long as this zone remains intact, the path of least resistance continues to lean upward.
 1-Hour Bullish FVG 
Currently, EURUSD is resting on a 1-hour bullish fair value gap. This area serves as an important support level, and as long as it holds, price is likely to use it as a springboard for further gains. The next targets lie at the upside, beginning with the first objective at the intermediate resistance level labeled “Target 1,” before ultimately pushing towards the liquidity area above. By reaching this zone, the market would sweep short-side liquidations and potentially trigger momentum-driven buying.
 Target Area 
The primary targets for this bullish move are the two significant highs above the current range. These highs represent zones where stop-loss orders are most likely accumulated. By driving into and above these levels, EURUSD will effectively complete a liquidity grab, providing bulls with a logical profit-taking zone before the market considers a possible retracement. Such a move would align with the general principle of markets seeking liquidity before establishing a new direction.
 Final Thoughts 
In summary, EURUSD is showing constructive price action following its downside liquidity sweep and subsequent bullish reversal. The inversion of the 4-hour FVG and the current defense of the 1-hour FVG are both encouraging signs for buyers. As long as the 1-hour fair value gap continues to act as a firm support, the probability of an upward continuation towards the liquidity area remains strong. However, traders should also remain mindful that once the liquidity above the highs is collected, a corrective move to the downside could develop. For now, the short-term bias stays bullish, with clearly defined targets on the upside.
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Bitcoin - Will the CME gap be filled?Introduction 
Bitcoin has been under consistent downward pressure since it reached its new all-time high, and the market has been struggling to regain momentum. During the past weekend, we saw a notable drop in price that created a CME gap, which also happens to align with the bearish 4-hour fair value gap. Since then, the price has been climbing back up, but the recovery has been slow and cautious rather than explosive. The key question now is whether Bitcoin will continue to rise and fill the CME gap or whether it will lose strength and revisit the recent lows. In the following sections, I will go over the levels and scenarios to watch closely.
 Daily FVG bounce 
Last week, Bitcoin found support at the daily fair value gap, which acted as a strong demand zone. From this level, the price bounced upward and has been grinding higher ever since. Although this reaction gave some relief to buyers, the pace of the move has been rather sluggish, and momentum remains weak. What traders now need to evaluate is how far this move can realistically extend. The daily FVG provided the initial foundation for this bounce, but the real test will come as the price approaches shorter-term imbalances and resistance areas.
 Bullish scenario 
For the bullish outlook to play out, Bitcoin needs to hold the current 1-hour fair value gap as support. If this level remains intact, it will signal that buyers are in control of the short-term trend and that the recent bounce has the potential to evolve into a more sustainable rally. In that case, the next logical upside target would be the 4-hour fair value gap, which conveniently aligns with the CME gap left behind last weekend’s drop. Filling this inefficiency would not only provide a technical target for bulls but would also help restore some balance to the market structure.
 Bearish scenario 
On the other hand, if Bitcoin fails to maintain the 1-hour fair value gap and breaks below it with a clear 1-hour candle closure, the outlook shifts to bearish. This kind of move would create a bearish inversion and serve as confirmation that sellers are regaining control. If this occurs, the probability increases significantly that Bitcoin will revisit its recent lows. In such a case, the market could once again test the demand at the daily fair value gap, and depending on the strength of that support, we could even see deeper retracements.
 Final thoughts 
Bitcoin is currently at an important crossroads where both bullish and bearish outcomes remain possible. The reaction around the 1-hour fair value gap will provide the clearest signal as to which direction the market is likely to take next. If buyers manage to defend this level, the path toward the 4-hour FVG and the CME gap becomes a realistic target, offering room for a meaningful recovery. However, if sellers push the price below the 1-hour imbalance, then the recent bounce may be nothing more than a temporary relief rally before another leg down. Traders should remain cautious, monitor these key levels closely, and adapt to whichever scenario unfolds.
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EURUSD - Is there more bearish momentum ahead?Introduction 
Last Friday, the EURUSD experienced a sharp move to the upside following Jerome Powell’s speech, which fueled optimism and created strong bullish momentum. However, the market could not sustain this rally, and by yesterday all the gains were fully retraced. Price dropped back into the bullish inversion fair value gap (FVG), ultimately filling it entirely. While this retracement has cooled off the bullish pressure, it has also introduced some new dynamics into the market that traders should be aware of.
 Liquidity sweep 
During Friday’s impulsive rally, EURUSD swept liquidity above the recent highs and simultaneously filled all the bearish fair value gaps. This move, while initially strong, did not manage to establish a sustainable break above those highs. As a result, bearish momentum began to reappear, suggesting that the rally was more of a liquidity grab rather than the start of a prolonged bullish trend.
 Bullish case scenario 
The bullish scenario from here would require EURUSD to reclaim strength and invalidate the recently formed bearish 4-hour FVG. For this to happen, the pair would need a decisive 4-hour candle close above this zone, signaling renewed upside momentum. Should buyers manage to achieve this, the next logical target would be another attempt at the highs that were swept on Friday. A confirmed break above those levels would strengthen the bullish case and potentially open the path to higher price levels.
 Bearish case scenario 
On the other hand, the bearish scenario appears more probable if EURUSD faces rejection at the bearish 4-hour FVG. A failure to break above this area would confirm that the bearish momentum is still in play. If that occurs, price will likely seek liquidity by moving lower, potentially targeting the bullish 4-hour FVG that sits beneath the liquidity zone. This move would align with the broader bearish structure and reinforce the idea that the market remains under selling pressure despite Friday’s rally.
 Final thoughts 
In conclusion, EURUSD is currently at a critical juncture, with both bullish and bearish scenarios still on the table. The decisive factor will be how price reacts around the bearish 4-hour FVG. A strong close above could set the stage for a continuation to the upside, while rejection from this zone would likely lead to a liquidity grab to the downside and a revisit of lower fair value gaps. Traders should remain cautious and patient, waiting for clear confirmations before committing to a direction, as the market continues to balance between bullish hopes and bearish pressure.
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USD/CHF - In depth breakdown🕰 Weekly Outlook
Context: Price is trading within a broad weekly swing range, rejecting resistance and leaning back into discount pricing.
Key Zones:
Resistance formed around 0.92 – 0.94 where sellers previously defended.
Weekly support sits near 0.78 – 0.80.
Bias: Weekly structure favors a return into discount after supply held.
Liquidity: Watch for sweeps into Sell Side Liquidity (SSL) before any deeper moves.
📉 Daily Structure
Price is consolidating sideways with both buy-side & sell-side liquidity building.
Notable level: 0.8024.
If this low breaks → bearish continuation.
If it holds → daily bias leans bullish back toward range highs.
Daily supply above suggests upside is corrective unless liquidity sweeps first.
⏱ 1H Breakdown
Strong supply formed around 0.8080 – 0.8100 (internal range high).
Multiple volume gaps and fair value inefficiencies visible — showing imbalance in recent bearish impulse.
Price recently retraced to 71% Fib zone and rejected, showing sellers active.
If intraday sellers step in here, downside targets are:
0.8051 intraday support
Then deeper into 0.8024 major level.
If bulls reclaim 0.8080 → likely squeeze toward 0.81+ (but still within higher-timeframe supply).
🎯 Trade Plan
Main Idea: Look for shorts off 0.8080 – 0.8100 supply with confluence from fib retracement + imbalance fill.
Targets:
TP1: 0.8051
TP2: 0.8024
Invalidation: Clean break and hold above 0.8110 (HTF supply invalidated).
Swing Option: If HTF bearish structure continues, possible extension toward 0.7950 – 0.7900 later.
EURUSD - Bullish outlook heading into next week!Introduction 
The EURUSD experienced a strong surge last Friday, largely driven by Jerome Powell’s speech, which added significant momentum to the market. This impulsive move to the upside successfully filled both the bearish 4-hour and 1-hour Fair Value Gaps (FVGs). The candle that formed was notably strong and bullish, and because of its size and strength, it is highly probable that we will see at least a 50% retracement of this candle before price continues to push higher. Such a retracement would allow the market to gather liquidity and prepare for another bullish leg.
 Liquidity Sweep 
Before this sharp rally, the EURUSD executed a liquidity sweep at the recent lows, clearing out stop losses and inducing sellers into the market. This is a classic move often seen before a strong reversal to the upside. Following this sweep, price accelerated with an aggressive bullish candle. My expectation now is for the market to retrace into this candle, ideally retracing deeply enough to provide a high-probability entry for continuation to the upside. This liquidity sweep sets the stage for a bullish scenario, as it suggests that smart money has already accumulated positions at discounted levels.
 Resistance 
As price surged higher, it tapped into a key area of resistance, which aligns with both the 1-hour and 4-hour FVGs. This confluence of timeframes strengthens the validity of the resistance zone and explains why price has reacted from this level. I anticipate that breaking through this resistance will require additional momentum, which may not occur immediately. Instead, we could see a short-term pullback or cooldown that allows the market to gather strength before attempting to push through this supply zone. This resistance area will therefore act as a decisive battleground for buyers and sellers.
 Bullish Support 
The strong bullish candle formed during the rally now serves as a new area of support. I expect price to respect the 50% retracement level of this candle, which lies around 1.166. This midpoint often acts as a significant level in technical analysis, and holding above it would confirm bullish continuation. As long as price remains above this zone, the momentum remains to the upside, and the probability of another move higher increases. This makes the retracement into this level a potential buying opportunity.
 Inversion 
Another important factor to consider is the inversion of the 4-hour FVG. On the previous drop, the EURUSD created a bearish 4-hour FVG, which initially acted as resistance. However, with the latest bullish impulse, this same zone has now flipped into an inversion FVG, transforming from a bearish area into a bullish support. This inversion highlights a significant shift in market structure and suggests that bulls are taking control of the price action. This level will be crucial to watch, as holding above it strengthens the case for further upside.
 Final Thoughts 
In summary, the EURUSD is showing strong bullish potential following the liquidity sweep and the aggressive rally sparked by Powell’s speech. While the market has reached a significant resistance area marked by the 1-hour and 4-hour FVGs, a retracement into the 50% level of the bullish candle would be healthy and provide a potential entry point for buyers. With the inversion of the previous bearish FVG into bullish support, the technical picture favors the upside as long as key support levels are respected. The coming sessions will reveal whether the market has the strength to break through resistance and continue its upward trajectory.
EURUSD - Will the parallel channel hold?Introduction 
The EURUSD is currently trading within a well-defined bullish parallel channel. While this channel suggests an overall upward trajectory, there is an important imbalance in how price has interacted with its boundaries. The upper side of the channel has relatively few touchpoints compared to the lower side, which has already been tested multiple times. This creates an interesting dynamic where both bullish and bearish scenarios remain in play. The pair is also trading within two significant 4-hour fair value gaps (FVGs), and the critical question now is which side will give way first, determining the next directional move.
 The Parallel Channel 
Within this parallel channel, price action has been leaning more heavily toward the downside, as shown by the fact that the lower boundary has been tested four times already. The upper boundary, however, has only registered a single touch, making it less validated. This imbalance implies that there is notable pressure on the downside, but at the same time, the presence of a bullish 4-hour fair value gap near the lower boundary cannot be ignored. This gap provides a potential level of support that could initiate a reversal back toward the upper side of the channel.
 Potential Bullish Bounce from Support 
The alignment of the lower trendline of the channel with the 4-hour bullish fair value gap creates a strong technical confluence. This support zone, located around the 1.166 – 1.165 area, could act as a springboard for buyers. If price respects this level, a bullish bounce could occur, pushing EURUSD back toward the upper region of the channel. In this scenario, the market would likely target the remaining inefficiencies left by the bearish 1-hour and 4-hour fair value gaps above, potentially leading to a liquidity grab in that zone.
 Bearish Breakdown Scenario 
On the other hand, if EURUSD fails to hold the support at the bullish 4-hour FVG, a bearish breakdown becomes increasingly likely. In that case, both the channel structure and the previously supportive FVG would flip into resistance, reinforcing bearish momentum. Should this play out, the pair could decline toward the next major 4-hour FVG around the 1.156 level in the near future. This would represent a meaningful breakdown of the current bullish structure, opening the door for further downside.
 Conclusion 
The EURUSD sits at a decisive point within its bullish channel. The key lies in whether the support confluence of the 4-hour bullish FVG and the lower trendline will hold. If it does, the pair has room to climb higher and fill inefficiencies above. If it breaks, however, a move down toward 1.156 seems likely. Traders should closely monitor these zones, as the resolution of this consolidation will determine whether EURUSD extends its bullish momentum or shifts into a deeper retracement.
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EURUSD - Moving towards the upper boundary in the rising channelSince reaching its recent low on August 1st, EUR/USD has been moving within a clear and consistent rising channel on the 4-hour chart. This upward structure has been well respected, with price action repeatedly reacting to both the upper resistance and lower support boundaries. The overall trajectory suggests that buyers have been steadily in control, but current market positioning shows the pair approaching a significant area that could determine the next directional move.
 Rising channel 
On the 4-hour timeframe, EUR/USD continues to trade inside this well-defined rising channel, with the slope indicating a healthy bullish trend. The price has been making higher highs and higher lows, consistently respecting the boundaries of the channel. At present, EUR/USD is hovering near the midline of this structure, which often acts as a pivot area where momentum can either accelerate toward the channel top or retrace toward its base.
 4H FVG resistance 
Currently, EUR/USD is facing a strong 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) resistance zone, positioned around the 1.1720–1.1750 region. This supply area is from a sharp sell-off from late July and may act as a significant hurdle for buyers. If this resistance holds, price could be pushed back down toward the lower boundary of the rising channel, possibly testing the 1.1620–1.1650 area. However, if EUR/USD manages to decisively break above this 4H FVG, it would open the door for a continuation toward the upper channel trendline, which currently lies near the 1.1850 level.
 Bullish support on the rising channel 
Should the 4H bearish FVG remain unbroken, the lower boundary of the rising channel becomes an important support to watch. A pullback toward this zone could provide buyers with a favorable opportunity to re-enter the market. A strong bounce from this support would reinforce the bullish structure and potentially set the stage for another attempt to breach the resistance area, with the aim of resuming the climb toward the channel’s upper limits.
 Final thoughts 
EUR/USD is in a critical position within its well-structured rising channel. The outcome at the current 4H FVG resistance will likely dictate the next swing. A break above could fuel a run toward the upper channel boundary near 1.1850, while rejection here may see a retracement to the lower channel support before another push higher. 
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US100 - Bullish trajectory to fill the inbalance zones!Over the past week, the US Tech 100 (US100) experienced a sharp decline, dropping into a significant support zone. During this bearish move, several fair value gaps (FVGs) formed on both the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes, which remain unfilled. Currently, price action is retracing upward, aiming to fill these imbalances. The structure of the market suggests that both bullish and bearish scenarios are in play, depending on how price reacts to key levels marked by these FVGs and Fibonacci retracement zones.
 Bearish Resistance 
The first major area of resistance is located around the $23,160 level, which has just been tapped. This zone presents a strong potential turning point due to the confluence of a 1-hour and a 4-hour fair value gap, which perfectly align with the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden pocket. This cluster of technical signals increases the probability that this level will act as a strong supply zone, potentially initiating a rejection back toward the lower support area.
 Bullish Support 
On the downside, a key level to watch is around $22,900. This zone marks a 4-hour FVG that was formed during the recent upward move. Importantly, this area also coincides with the golden pocket from that very same leg up, offering a compelling confluence for bullish support. If price revisits this level, it may act as a strong demand zone, providing a springboard for the next leg higher, particularly if buyers step in aggressively to defend it.
 Bullish Trajectory 
If support at $22,900 holds, the bullish trajectory suggests a possible continuation toward the $23,400 region. This upper target contains a large overlapping 1-hour and 4-hour FVG that remains unfilled. Historically, price tends to revisit and fill such imbalances before choosing a definitive direction. A bounce from the lower support zone and a successful break of the $23,160 resistance could pave the way for a clean move toward this higher target, completing the FVG fill sequence.
 Final Thoughts 
The US100 is currently navigating a key technical crossroads. With multiple unfilled fair value gaps and well-aligned Fibonacci levels on both the upside and downside, the next few sessions will be critical in determining short-term direction. If the $23,160 resistance continues to hold, a pullback to $22,900 could offer a high-probability long setup, while a clean break above this resistance opens the door to filling the higher FVGs.
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Understanding SMT Divergence In Trading1. Definition and Importance 
SMT (Smart Money Technique) Divergence refers to a trading concept that involves identifying discrepancies between the price movement of correlated markets or instruments.
These discrepancies can signal potential market reversals or price manipulation. Specifically, it focuses on the divergence between price movements and indicators (like volume, momentum, or oscillators) in markets that typically move in sync.
In SMT Divergence, traders look for situations where two or more correlated instruments (like
Forex pairs, indices, or bonds) are moving in opposite directions. This "divergence" signals that
there may be a shift in market sentiment, liquidity manipulation, or an opportunity for price
correction.
The importance of SMT Divergence lies in its ability to detect hidden market dynamics that are
often manipulated by institutional players. By understanding these divergences, traders can
gain insights into potential market moves and position themselves accordingly.
 2. The Relationship Between Correlated Markets 
Understanding these relationships is crucial for identifying SMT Divergence:
 
 Forex Pairs : Many Forex pairs have direct correlations. For example, EUR/USD and USD/JPY are often correlated in the sense that when the USD strengthens, both pairs may exhibit price movement in the same direction (EUR/USD decreases, USD/JPY increases). SMT
Divergence occurs when these pairs move in opposite directions, indicating that something
unusual is happening in the market (e.g., liquidity manipulation or market anticipation).
 Indices : Stock market indices (like the S&P 500 or Dow Jones) and related instruments like futures or ETFs can show correlation. A divergence in these indices might indicate potential
trends or reversals, signaling that institutions are positioning themselves for a move in one
direction, and the market is showing resistance.
 Bonds : The relationship between bond yields and currency pairs, for instance, can also show correlations. When bond yields move in one direction, certain currency pairs should
generally follow suit. Divergence in this relationship can reveal clues about market
intentions, such as shifts in interest rates or macroeconomic sentiment.
 Commodities and Stocks : Commodities like oil and gold can often correlate with indices or specific stocks. For example, if oil prices rise and an energy sector index doesn’t move in the
same direction, this could be a sign of market inefficiencies or institutional positioning.
 
 3. SMT Types 
 3.1. Bullish SMT Divergence 
Bullish SMT (Smart Money Technique) Divergence occurs when one correlated asset forms a
higher low while another makes a lower low. This indicates that one market is showing hidden
strength, suggesting a potential reversal to the upside.
How to Spot Higher Lows in One Asset While the Other Makes Lower Lows:
 
 1. Identify Two Correlated Markets  – Choose two assets that typically move together, such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD or NASDAQ and S&P 500.
 2. Look for Divergence  – Observe when one asset makes a new lower low, while the other fails to do so, instead of forming a higher low.
 3. Volume & Price Action Confirmation  – Institutions may absorb liquidity in the weaker asset while the stronger one holds its ground.
 4. Validate with Market Context  – Look at macroeconomic conditions, liquidity pools, and institutional activity to confirm the setup.
 
 3.2. Bearish SMT Divergence 
Bearish SMT Divergence occurs when one correlated asset forms a lower high while another
makes a higher high. This signals hidden weakness, indicating that the market may be setting
up for a bearish reversal.
How to Spot Lower Highs in One Asset While the Other Makes Higher Highs:
 
 1. Find Two Correlated Markets  – Common pairs include NASDAQ vs. S&P 500 or EUR/USD vs. GBP/USD.
 2. Identify the Divergence  – One asset makes a higher high, while the other fails to follow and forms a lower high instead.
 3. Liquidity & Volume Analysis  – Smart money may be using the stronger asset to attract buyers before reversing.
 4. Confirm with Institutional Order Flow  – Watch for liquidity grabs and imbalance zones.
 
 3.3. Intermarket SMT 
 Definition : Divergence between assets from different markets, such as Forex vs. Commodities, Stocks vs. Bonds, or Indices vs. the U.S. Dollar.
 Examples :
 
 EUR/USD vs. DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) – If EUR/USD forms a higher low while DXY makes a
higher high, this suggests USD weakness and potential EUR/USD strength.
 NASDAQ vs. S&P 500 – If NASDAQ makes a higher high but S&P 500 doesn’t, it can indicate
a weakening stock market rally.
 
 Strength & Validity :
 
  High validity because institutions hedge positions across different markets.
 
 3.4. Intramarket SMT 
 Definition : Divergence within the same market (e.g., multiple Forex pairs or stock indices).
 Examples :
 
 EUR/USD vs. GBP/USD – If EUR/USD makes a lower low but GBP/USD doesn’t, it could
indicate bullish strength.
 Dow Jones vs. S&P 500 vs. NASDAQ – If NASDAQ is making new highs while the Dow lags, it
may signal weakness in the broader stock market.
 
 Strength & Validity :
 
 Still valid but needs additional confirmation (liquidity sweeps, volume analysis).
 
 4. SMT Divergence vs. RSI Divergence 
Why SMT Is Superior to Traditional RSI Divergences
 
 1. RSI Measures Momentum, Not Liquidity  – RSI divergence is based on momentum shifts,
which institutions can easily manipulate with fake breakouts or engineered price moves.
 2. SMT Focuses on Market Structure & Liquidity  – SMT divergence detects institutional
positioning by comparing correlated assets, making it harder to manipulate.
 3. RSI Can Remain Overbought/Oversold for Long Periods  – Markets can continue trending
despite RSI divergence, while SMT divergence often provides stronger reversal signals.
 
How Smart Money Manipulates Classic Divergence Traders
 
 Liquidity Sweeps  – Institutions use RSI divergence to lure retail traders into premature
reversals before executing stop hunts.
 False RSI Signals  – In trending markets, RSI divergences often fail, while SMT divergence
provides a more contextual view of smart money positioning.
 
 5. Using TradingView for SMT Analysis 
To effectively analyze SMT divergence, traders should monitor at least two correlated assets
simultaneously.
TradingView makes this easy by allowing multiple chart layouts. Steps to Set Up Multiple Charts in TradingView:
 
 a. Open TradingView and click on the “Select Layout” button.
 b. Choose a two-chart or four-chart layout to compare correlated assets.
 c. Sync timeframes across all charts for consistency.
 d. Adjust scaling to ensure price action is easily comparable.
 
Best Pairs to Compare for SMT Analysis:
 
 Forex : EUR/USD vs. GBP/USD, USD/JPY vs. DXY
 Indices : NASDAQ vs. S&P 500, Dow Jones vs. S&P 500
 Commodities & FX : Gold (XAU/USD) vs. USD/JPY
 Bonds & Equities : 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. S&P 500
 
 6. Key Takeaways 
 
 SMT divergence reveals institutional intent by showing liquidity accumulation or
distribution through correlated assets.
 Bullish SMT occurs when one asset makes a lower low while the other does not, signaling a
potential reversal up.
 Bearish SMT occurs when one asset makes a higher high while the other does not, signaling
a potential reversal down.
 Best markets for SMT analysis include Forex pairs, indices, commodities, and bonds, where
correlations are strongest.
 SMT is most effective near key liquidity levels, such as session highs/lows, order blocks, and
fair value gaps.
 SMT is more reliable during high-impact news events, London & New York sessions, and
quarterly shifts, where institutional activity is highest.
 SMT is superior to RSI divergence because it reflects real liquidity dynamics, whereas RSI
can produce false signals.
 Combining SMT with market structure shifts like BOS and CHoCH increases trade accuracy
and reliability.
 Risk management in SMT trading requires stop-loss placement beyond liquidity grabs and a
minimum 2:1 risk-reward ratio.
 Mastering SMT helps traders avoid liquidity traps, improve precision, and align with smart
 money moves.
 
 SMT divergence is the footprint of smart money—where one market whispers the truth while the other follows the herd.
Bitcoin - Will the liquidity at $122K be the next target?Bitcoin is currently trading within a defined corrective channel, which has been developing over the past few weeks. Price action within this structure has been characterized by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a mild downtrend. However, these movements lack strong momentum, indicating that the market is consolidating rather than entering a deeper correction. This kind of structure often precedes a significant breakout, and given the nature of the current price action, a retest of previous highs remains a realistic possibility.
 Bullish Scenario 
Looking at the overall structure of the channel, a bullish breakout seems increasingly likely. For this scenario to unfold, BTC needs to hold the midline of the channel as support. If this level is respected, it could pave the way for a push towards the upper boundary of the channel and a potential break above the lower high structure near $120,000. A successful breach of that level could trigger a move toward the $122,000 liquidity zone, with the potential to challenge the all-time high (ATH) in the near future. Holding the midline and breaking above key resistance would provide confirmation of strength and continuation to the upside.
 Bearish Scenario 
On the flip side, if BTC fails to hold the midline as support and starts closing below it on the 4H timeframe, we could see a renewed move toward the lower boundary of the corrective channel. This could lead to a test of the unfilled 4H fair value gap (FVG) highlighted in the chart, located around the $112,000 – $113,000 area. This zone also coincides with a strong historical support level, making it a logical area where buyers might step in and provide the momentum needed for a more sustainable bullish reversal.
 Final Thoughts 
While both scenarios remain valid, the price structure within the corrective channel currently leans slightly more toward a bullish outcome. The lack of aggressive selling and the potential for liquidity above the previous highs support this view. However, trading is never about certainty but about preparing for various possibilities. Being aware of both bullish and bearish setups allows traders to react with flexibility and discipline depending on how the market unfolds in the coming sessions.
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