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SOLUSDT – Double Top Rejection Signals Short-Term WeaknessHi! SOLUSDT is showing clear signs of short-term exhaustion on the chart. Price was rejected twice from the same resistance zone around 125, forming a classic double top structure. After the second rejection, the ascending trendline that supported the recent move was broken, confirming a loss of bullish momentum. This breakdown increases the probability of a corrective move toward the horizontal support near 122.3–122.0, which aligns with prior structure. As long as the price remains below the broken trendline and resistance zone, downside pressure is favored. A reclaim of the trendline would invalidate this bearish scenario.
BINANCE:SOLUSDShort
by melikatrader94
8
SOL: The Equilibrium StandoffSOL sits at $124.66 in pure equilibrium, not discount, not premium, just stuck. The market structure isn't signaling a breakout; it's signaling a standoff. With volume 41% below average and momentum indicators in conflict, this is a wait-for-resolution setup, not a chase-the-move trade. 1. THE TECHNICAL REALITY 📉 • Price trapped between discount zone ($124.25) and premium ($139.33) • Bearish swing trend with weak conviction (ADX only 18.1) • Wick analysis shows war zone: 46.7% lower wick (support) vs 42.7% upper wick (rejection) • Volume at $1.47M vs $2.51M average, smart money isn't showing up 2. THE INDICATORS ⚖️ Bearish Signals: • Stochastic screaming overbought at 90.3 • Bearish order block overhead at $128.74 (key supply zone) • Volume 41% below normal, no institutional confirmation Bullish Signals: • MACD just flipped bullish (0.2262 vs -0.0791) • RSI neutral at 60.8 • MFI neutral at 48.8 The Conflict: Stochastic overbought while MFI stays neutral, that's momentum divergence. When indicators can't agree, the current move is running on fumes, not fuel. 3. THE TRADE SETUP 🎯 🔴 Scenario A: Rejection & Retest (Higher Probability) • Trigger: Rejection at $128.74 bearish OB • Entry: Breakdown below $123.42 (FVG fill) • Target: $119.15 swing low support • Stop: 4H close above $128.74 🟢 Scenario B: Structure Flip (Lower Probability) • Trigger: Reclaim of $139.33 premium zone • Entry: 4H close above $128.74 • Target: Change of Character (CHoCH) bullish • Invalidation: Rejection back below $128.74 MY VERDICT 62% confidence bearish lean. Setup favors rejection at resistance into support retest, but weak trend strength (ADX 18.1) means this could chop sideways before resolving. I'm not forcing trades in low-conviction environments, risk management is the difference between chess and checkers.
by MonoCoinSignal
1
The process itself remains the most valuable guideOne of the aspects of this form of analysis that I genuinely enjoy, but which I know can be frustrating for others, is that there are moments when the pattern appears to be communicating something very clearly…yet price refuses to cooperate with that viewpoint. When that happens, my focus immediately shifts to why. What am I missing? That process doesn’t disillusion me, it fascinates me. Because sooner rather than later, the market provides the answer, and every time it does, there is something to be learned. In the case of Solana, the pattern appears to be saying exactly what the arrows on the chart are suggesting. And yet, I currently have no price-based evidence to support that interpretation. Price has not advanced in any meaningful way, has not challenged important resistance areas, and has not begun to break apart the broader downside structure. There’s a disconnect that cannot be ignored. A misinterpretation of the pattern in my analysis? A lack of patience on my part? My process is to become self-inquisitive. Structurally, I can identify all the constituent waves necessary to consider the decline complete, and price has reached the Fibonacci extensions that would typically signal the end of such a pattern. Under normal circumstances, that would already have produced a response to the upside. So, for now, patience is required. In the days ahead, the market will either reveal why this pattern is not cooperating with my current perspective, or it will begin to deliver the subdivisions that should accompany a completed decline. Either outcome provides clarity. Until then, the process itself remains the most valuable guide.
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by maikisch
1
$SOL – Setting Up for a Complacency BounceSolana pulled back aggressively from the $250 high and is now trading around $122, unwinding a big portion of the prior move. Right now, $130 is capping price on the upside and acting as clear near-term resistance. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a complacency bounce first, possibly dipping into the $107–100 zone before the market makes its next real decision. My gut feel is that this move may not be over yet. There’s still unfinished business around the $160–180 imbalance area, and if conditions line up, price could push back into that zone before rolling over again. If that happens and structure weakens after the sweep, a deeper breakdown toward the $80–60s wouldn’t be out of the question.
Long
by Tealstreet
2
SOL/USDTSolana has broken down from the global ascending channel. A new descending channel has formed, and price is now holding below its midline — a bearish trigger. At the same time, there are several factors that keep a potential bounce on the table: • price is sitting on a strong liquidity level, • a rough but double bullish divergence has formed, • there is an unfilled deviation around ~$150, making a bounce toward that level logical. A move toward a channel retest in the $180+ area is possible, but the probability is limited. ⚠️ If the bounce fails, downside levels to watch: • $100 — psychological level, • $95 — previous low, • $76 — major liquidity level. A sustained break below $76 would be extremely negative — below that, structure deteriorates fast. Last time this scenario played out, price eventually dropped to $8.
by MLDpwnz
1
SOL & XRP - Decision Time at Weekly Structure!⚔️Both SOL and XRP are now sitting at a major weekly support zone , clearly marked in blue. This is not just a random level, it’s a key structural area that has defined direction in the past. From here, the market is at a crossroads: 🔁 📉If this weekly support breaks , it would signal a loss of structure, opening the door for further long-term bearish continuation toward the green demand zone below. 📈On the other hand, for bulls to regain control, price must prove strength. That confirmation comes only with a break above the last major daily high, marked in red. Without that, any bounce remains corrective, not a trend reversal. In short: Structure is being tested. Reaction matters more than prediction. Do you think this support holds, or are we heading deeper into demand? 📊 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
14
Solana (SOL) Attempting Breakout – Eyes on $145 and $174SOL is currently testing the $126 zone, aiming to reclaim ground after a prolonged downtrend. This level aligns with a descending trendline that has acted as dynamic resistance. A clean breakout above it could trigger a shift in momentum and pave the way for higher targets. 💡 Trade Setup: Entry Zone: $120 – $126 Take Profit 1: $145 Take Profit 2: $174 Stop Loss: $112 A strong candle close above $126 could confirm bullish continuation. Watch for volume to support the breakout. If rejected, SOL may retest lower supports—risk management is key.
Long
by Richtv_official
Solana Price Prediction: SOL at a Make-or-Break Moment* The SOL price is pressing into a long-term resistance trendline that has capped every recent recovery attempt, making this level critical for the next move. * On-chain data shows cooling activity rather than capitulation, indicating consolidation as SOL trades near a decision point. * A confirmed breakout could shift momentum higher, while rejection keeps downside risks in focus around key support zones. When you zoom out and look at Solana's recent price action, it’s clear the market isn’t in panic mode anymore, even after a long and frustrating decline. The SOL price didn’t just drift lower quietly. The price rolled over from earlier highs and spent weeks grinding down, breaking confidence along the way. But lately, the behavior looks different. Markets are accepting a pause rather than a breakdown; it feels like taking stock after the recent damage. Right now, the SOL price is trading around the $120–$130 zone, with $126.18 sitting near the middle. Just beneath that is a well-defined support zone spanning $110 to $120 that has held firm through multiple tests. Each dip into that zone has been bought, even if the rebounds haven’t been strong. That matters because after slicing through multiple levels during the downtrend, this is the first area where selling pressure has clearly slowed. Moves lower are getting absorbed faster, suggesting sellers are losing urgency, even if buyers aren’t fully confident yet. On-chain data supports that view. Solana’s market cap has stopped falling sharply and has started to level out. Capital isn’t rushing out of the ecosystem anymore, which often points to consolidation rather than continued distribution. Network activity tells a similar story. Active addresses and transfer counts have cooled, but they remain well above bear-market lows, signaling usage is stabilizing rather than collapsing. What’s next for SOL? The biggest hurdle is still overhead resistance. On lower timeframes, the SOL price continues to respect a clean descending trend line that has rejected every bounce. Each attempt has stalled quickly, showing buyers are cautious and conviction remains limited. That trend line is the key level. A break and hold above the $135–$140 area would significantly improve the structure. In case the price can’t push through higher levels, another rejection could push SOL lower toward the $110-$120 support area, where multiple tests could pose a threat of steep declines. Currently, Solana is in a wait-and-see moment. Although the selling pressure has receded, the market chart has yet to indicate a willingness on the part of buyers to dominate the market.
by CoinCodex
New Court Case DISASTEROUS for SOLANA?Quite silently, Solana may be heading into one of the most consequential legal challenges it has faced to date. The implications reach far beyond short-term market of SOL -it will likely affect MANY more crypto's and projects. A US federal judge has recently (past few days) approved a class action lawsuit to proceed against several parties tied to the Solana ecosystem, including Solana Labs and entities connected to PumpFun. This isn’t speculative rumors; the court has ruled that the claims presented are substantial enough to warrant deeper examination. The argument of the case is an allegation that cuts directly into Solana’s technical design. Plaintiffs argue that certain insiders benefited from preferential access created by the network’s validator structure and transaction-ordering mechanisms. In practice, this allegedly allowed privileged actors to enter positions earlier, exit faster, and systematically offload risk onto retail participants. The court’s decision suggests regulators and judges are increasingly willing to scrutinize not just token issuers or apps, but the underlying blockchain infrastructure itself when assessing fairness and market access. Therefore, it could be consequential for the rest of the crypto market as well in the near to long term. That framing introduces a serious existential risk.
Short
by Crypto-Check-
10
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap - Double Head & Shoulders?Market: CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Crypto Market Cap Assets referenced: COINBASE:BTCUSD , COINBASE:ETHUSD , COINBASE:SOLUSD , CRYPTO:BNBUSD , COINBASE:XRPUSD , COINBASE:ADAUSD , COINBASE:AVAXUSD , COINBASE:DOTUSD , COINBASE:LINKUSD , CRYPTO:MATICUSD The TOTAL crypto market remains in a long-term bullish structure, supported by sustained adoption across major assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, alongside continued development in ecosystems such as BNB Chain, Avalanche, Polygon, and Polkadot. That said, markets do not move in straight lines. Historical cycle behavior In previous crypto cycles (2017 and 2020–2021), periods of strong expansion across BTC, ETH, and large-cap altcoins were followed by: Broad market pullbacks of ~20–40% Corrections that held above prior cycle highs Multi-month consolidations before continuation These pullbacks ultimately offered the best long-term entries for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and quality altcoins like LINK, ADA, AVAX, and MATIC. Current market structure TOTAL market cap remains above key long-term support Momentum has cooled without structural breakdown Price action resembles a macro decision zone, not a trend reversal A pullback toward prior resistance-turned-support would align with: Historical crypto market cycles Rising long-term trendlines Past accumulation zones for BTC and ETH This would represent a higher low on a multi-year timeframe, consistent with healthy bull markets. Institutional context This cycle differs from previous ones due to institutional participation: Spot Bitcoin ETF flows Growing Ethereum ETF exposure Increased corporate and custodial adoption of digital assets Sustained institutional demand could: Limit downside volatility Turn deeper corrections into sideways consolidation Support continued strength across BTC, ETH, SOL, and large-cap altcoins Conclusion The long-term thesis for crypto remains intact. Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to act as macro anchors, while ecosystems like Solana, Avalanche, Polygon, and Chainlink reflect ongoing innovation beneath the surface. A pullback would not be bearish - it would be structurally healthy and potentially offer high-quality long-term entries. Bullish long-term. Patient near-term. Watching structure across the TOTAL market, not short-term noise.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by thedailyinvestor
SOLUSD at long-term linear-regression supportSOLUSD has had a rough year in 2025 with major drawdowns and new highs as well. Neither bulls nor bears have had a painless path. Will 2026 be different? A lot depends on the Fed, liquidity, inflation prints, and more. But SOL found a bottom today at the -2 standard deviation line on a log-scale linear regression going back to the all-time low in December 2022. This is a convenient tool developed by @Forza that is an open-source script that "slightly modifies TradingView's built-in linear regression script" which allows it to be plotted on log-scale charts. I've thought recently that it may be worth taking a shot at SOL long, with risk limited to the -2 standard deviation line on a log scale chart. The AVWAP from the inception of the chart (shown weekly above and dates back to June 2021 for this particular exchange's chart), lies around $96-$97. No certainties exist in trading or investing, and a flush in 1Q would bring further pain to bullish SOL traders and long-term SOL investors. But if SOL continues its bullish path since late 2022, it could reach new all-time highs in 2026-2027. Maybe it's an investment worth considering. As always, do your own research!
COINBASE:SOLUSDLong
by SquishTrade
1
Solana Long Term Market Structure StudyMulti Cycle Perspective Into 2026 This publication outlines a long term market structure thesis for Solana based on historical crypto cycles, network development trends, and relative positioning among large cap digital assets. The analysis is educational in nature and focuses on spot market behavior only. This is not a short term trade idea. It is a cycle based accumulation and distribution framework intended for extended holding periods and significant volatility tolerance. Important Scope and Risk Context • Spot market framework only • No leverage assumptions • No short term timing precision • High volatility expected throughout the cycle Crypto assets experience frequent 30 to 50 percent drawdowns even during bullish phases. Any framework relying on leverage would likely fail structurally due to normal volatility. Macro Cycle Context Historically, crypto markets have followed broad expansion and contraction phases aligned with Bitcoin supply events and liquidity cycles. Observed historical reference points: • 2017 cycle peak with extreme altcoin expansion • 2021 cycle peak with institutional participation • Current cycle forming into 2025 to 2026 window Each cycle has shown diminishing multiples at the market level while still allowing select assets to outperform due to network usage and adoption growth. Solana Relative Positioning Solana entered the prior cycle as an emerging network and has since transitioned into a mature Layer 1 ecosystem. Current positioning includes: • Proven network resilience post 2022 drawdown • Active DeFi NFT and DePIN ecosystems • Consistent high developer participation • Increasing institutional infrastructure interest This places Solana in a different structural position than it occupied during the prior expansion phase. Price Structure Context and Target Framework Historical reference points: • Launch period near single digit pricing • Prior cycle peak near 260 • Bear market low near single digits • Current multi month consolidation between 180 and 250 The upper projection zone near 680 is derived from conservative multiple expansion rather than extreme cycle assumptions. Framework considerations: • 3 to 4 times expansion from current range • Prior cycle expansion far exceeded this multiple • Market capitalization would remain well below Ethereum historical dominance • Fibonacci extensions from the cycle low project into the 650 to 750 area This projection is not based on exponential assumptions and remains within historical precedent for mature altcoins during expansion phases. Network Fundamentals Supporting the Thesis Network Activity • Sustained high transaction throughput • Low transaction cost enabling real usage • Daily transaction counts consistently elevated DeFi and Economic Activity • Recovery in total value locked post drawdown • Growth in liquid staking and derivatives infrastructure • Increasing presence of yield generating protocols Developer Engagement • Consistent ranking among top networks for development activity • Production level applications rather than experimental deployments Market history shows that usage driven growth tends to outperform speculative narratives during sustained expansions. Potential Catalysts During the Cycle Structural Catalysts • Validator client upgrades improving throughput and resilience • Expansion of stablecoin settlement usage • Continued maturation of on chain payment infrastructure Market Catalysts • Institutional product speculation • Broader access through regulated investment vehicles • Increased enterprise experimentation Catalysts act as acceleration mechanisms, not guarantees. Technical Structure Overview • Long term higher low structure intact since bear market bottom • Prior resistance acting as support within the current range • Extended consolidation consistent with accumulation phases The 180 to 250 region represents a structural balance zone, not a timing signal. Accumulation and Distribution Framework Accumulation Phase • Gradual position building within the established range • Emphasis on patience and risk sizing • Expectation of drawdowns during accumulation Expansion Phase • Volatility increases alongside trend acceleration • Sharp corrections remain normal • Emotional discipline becomes critical Distribution Phase • Incremental profit reduction rather than full exit timing • Scaling out into strength reduces cycle risk • Avoidance of peak prediction behavior Why Spot Market Structure Matters Crypto volatility structurally penalizes leverage during expansion cycles. Observed behavior during prior cycles: • Deep pullbacks occur even within strong trends • Liquidation events remove participants before trend completion • Spot holders retain optionality through volatility This framework assumes survivability over optimization. Risk Factors to Consider • Cycle timing deviation • Regulatory changes • Network reliability events • Competitive pressure from other scaling solutions • Macro liquidity contraction • Token emission dynamics Any one of these factors could materially alter outcomes. Relative Asset Comparison • Larger than experimental networks • Smaller than dominant incumbents • Established enough to survive downturns • Volatile enough to outperform in expansion phases This positions Solana in a middle ground between stability and growth potential. Summary Framework This study outlines a cycle based structural thesis rather than a prediction. Core assumptions: • Multi year horizon • Spot exposure only • Volatility acceptance • Defined risk allocation • Gradual accumulation and reduction Outcomes are uncertain and non linear. This framework is one interpretation of historical behavior and current structure. Final Notes This content is educational and speculative in nature. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in any transaction. Digital assets are highly volatile and carry risk of significant loss. Historical patterns do not ensure future outcomes. Market participants should conduct independent research, assess personal risk tolerance, and size exposure conservatively.
Long
by RB_T
SOL Update: Downtrend confirmed, hold on to your horses SOL Update: Solana remains in a clear downtrend, with price continuing to respect the descending channel that’s been in place since the breakdown from the highs. The broader structure is defined by lower highs and lower lows, and each bounce so far has been corrective rather than impulsive. The recent move back toward the ~$125 area looks more like a relief reaction than a genuine attempt at trend reversal. The ~$125 zone is a key inflection point, but at this stage it’s acting more like resistance than support. Price has struggled to reclaim and hold above that level, and without a strong impulsive push and follow-through, it’s hard to make a case for acceptance back above it. As long as SOL remains below this level and inside the descending channel, the path of least resistance remains lower. Zooming out, this aligns with the broader crypto market working through a corrective and risk-off phase, where strength tends to fade and rallies get sold. In that environment, higher timeframe downtrends typically persist until a clear base forms or a major level is reclaimed. For SOL, that means continued downside risk and consolidation until structure improves. For now, I’m treating any moves into resistance as corrective and staying cautious. Until SOL can break the downtrend and reclaim key levels with conviction, this remains a downtrend-first market rather than a buy-the-dip environment. Looking for more down, and then eventually hopefully some relief.
COINBASE:SOLUSD
by OnchainNewsBlog
SOLUSDT - Countertrend correction to resistanceBINANCE:SOLUSDT , after updating its low, is forming a correction to the resistance conglomerate, but will the bears be able to hold back the upward movement? Bitcoin is testing 90K but is currently unable to consolidate above this zone. This is having a negative impact on the entire market. SOL is testing the 125.5 zone of interest after updating its low. If the bears keep the price below this level, SOL may come under pressure. Two key areas of interest: 124.5 and 128.9. If 124.5 does not hold the market, then before falling, within the global downtrend, SOLANA may test the upper resistance. Resistance levels: 124.5, 128.9 Support levels: 120.15, 116.7 Global and local trends are downward. At the moment, a countertrend correction is forming, which may be stopped in the indicated areas. A false breakout could trigger a decline. Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
3
SOL – Bearish Rising Wedge Breakdown (Weekly Chart)The chart shows a large multi-year bearish rising wedge , which has now been broken to the downside. This wedge has been forming since the 2022 bottom and consists of clear wave structure (a–b–c–d–e), with the final wave e rejecting at the upper boundary and triggering the breakdown. After this kind of pattern, the market often provides a relief bounce back into the broken support , which should now act as resistance . For SOL, the expected retest zone is located around $170–$190. If price confirms resistance there, I expect the beginning of a larger downward wave , targeting the main Fibonacci zone near the 0.618 retracement, which aligns with a long-term target around $30–$40. This zone marks the primary downside target for a full wedge breakdown. Key Points: Multi-year bearish rising wedge has broken. Expected retest: $170–$190. Major downside target: $30–$40 (0.618 zone). Potential start of a macro corrective wave.
Short
by ODYSSEY21
1
BTC Update: Chop, Chop, Chopping Wood. Don't get shaken out. BTC Update: Price is doing exactly what I was expecting after the prior expansion phase - chopping and grinding rather than resolving immediately. Despite the growing panic and bearish sentiment, the market has not seen a true downside flush yet. From a structural perspective, this still looks like a higher timeframe consolidation rather than a full trend breakdown. On the weekly, BTC remains above major cycle support, and the recent weakness appears more corrective than impulsive. Historically, these types of ranges tend to resolve with one final liquidation move to reset positioning. I’m still watching for a sharp downside extension into the ~$70k region, which would represent a deeper test of higher timeframe demand and a more complete sentiment washout. What stands out most right now is sentiment. Fear has escalated quickly relative to actual structural damage, which is typically what you see before a final flush, not after one. Until that move happens, I expect continued volatility and frustration as the market works through excess leverage. Assuming a proper reset plays out, this would likely set the stage for a cleaner continuation higher into early next year. For now, patience is key - this phase is about letting the market finish its reset before the next sustained leg develops.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by OnchainNewsBlog