S&P500 Both short and long term bullish targets intact.The S&P500 index (SPX) continues to trade within its 5-month Channel Up and last Friday's pull-back to its 1D MA50 (red trend-line) again is another testament to it as it rebounded exactly on its bottom, making yet another Higher Low.
As we've shown on our previous analysis its short-term Target is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension at 6850. Ahead of a massive 1D MACD Bullish Cross however, we can see (after another short pull-back) the index extending much higher to its 2.5 Fibonacci extension (orange) at 7150 before a larger correction takes place.
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Spxsignals
S&P500 Can the 1D MA50 save the day?The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a 5-month Channel Up and last Friday's flash crash touched its bottom making a new Higher Low. At the same time, it hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time May 01 2025.
As long as the market keeps closing the daily candles inside the Channel Up, we expect the new Bullish Leg to start and as the shortest ones did within the pattern, target at least the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level at 6850.
If a 1D candle closes below the Channel Up though, there are higher probabilities to see a stronger dip to the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) a 6400.
On a sidenote, the 1D RSI hit and rebounded on Friday on its Lower Lows trend-line, favoring at the moment a bullish continuation.
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S&P500 Found the Support it needed for 6800.The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us an excellent bottom buy signal last week (September 30, see chart below), rebounding straight after and quickly hitting our 6720 Target:
This time we focus on a much shorter term Channel Up pattern that has emerged, which has just given us another buy signal as it is currently bouncing on its 1H MA50 (blue trend-line).
As long as the 1H MA100 (green trend-line) holds and the 1H RSI breaks above its Lower Highs trend-line, we expect the index to seek a new Higher High on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 6800.
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S&P500 Short-term Bull Flag formed.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 31 High. The price is currently on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), forming a Bull Flag after a 4H MA100 (green trend-line) rebound last Thursday.
This is similar to the Bull Flags of August 25 and 05, which both ended with a rise to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. Even the 4H RSI sequences among the 3 fractals are similar with their Lower Highs structures. The only difference is that the price bottomed this time on the 4H MA100 (as mentioned), instead of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) of the previous 3 times.
As a result, if this Bull Flag holds, we expect a quick rally to 6720 (just under Fib 1.236).
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S&P500 approaching a Resistance that was last tested in 1998 !!This isn't the first time we present you this chart, in fact from time to time (usually on a quarterly basis) we like to bring this forward with some adjustments in order to help us maintain a long-term perspective.
And that technically shows the S&P500 index (SPX) trading within a century long Fibonacci Channel Up (since the 2029 Great Depression) with clear Bull and Bear Cycles. We will not get into much details on those, as they've been analyzed extensively in previous publications but we will point out that currently we remain inside a multi-year Bull Cycle.
In fact, since the November 2022 market bottom, we believe we've entered the A.I. Bubble, which is in our opinion (perhaps a more aggressive) version of the Internet Bubble of the 1990s. Again this has been analyzed extensively before.
Right now the index is approaching the top of the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib Zone (orange range). The one above (0.618 - 0.786 Fib, red Zone), was first entered in February 1998 and exited for good at the start of the Dotcom crash in February 2001. Since then, the market never even touched it (almost 25 years).
We believe that a marginal test and break inside this 'ghost zone' could be attempting by late 2025 - Q1 2026 and then a strong correction back near the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) will present the next long-term buy opportunity that could fuel the A.I. Bubble until it finally bursts within 2030 - 2032.
Until then, a 12000 Target on SPX isn't at all an unrealistic one, in our opinion.
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S&P500 Risks drop to the 4H MA200 if MA50 fails.The S&P500 index (SPX) is experiencing a strong intra-day correction that just hit its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since September 05. As long as this holds, we expect a gradual rise, targeting 6800 (representing a +3.89% increase similar to July's).
A 1D candle closing below the 4H MA50 however, has historically paved the way to more selling within the 4-month Channel Up, that touched the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) before rebounding. If that candle closing takes place, we will close the 4H MA50 buy on minimum loss and buy on the 4H MA200, targeting 6700 (sharp rebound similar to all 4H MA200 bounces).
Keep also an eye on the 4H RSI Buy Zone. It has given the 5 most optimal buy entries during these 4 months. Note also that the 4H MA200 has been holding as Support since the April 25 break-out.
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S&P500 Rising Wedge break-out imminent.Last week's (September 02, see chart below) buy signal on the S&P500 index (SPX) hit our 6530 Target, as the price reversed on its 4H MA200, which as we mentioned was the market's medium-term Support:
Right now the index is supported by its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is attempting to break above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of a Rising Wedge similar to the one at the start of the 4-month Channel Up.
As you can see the symmetry between the two patterns is very high and the June break-out led to a +5.70% rise on the 2.5 Fibonacci extension before the next consolidation. A potential +5.70% rise from he recent 4H MA50 Low would now be at 6720 and that is our short-term Target.
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S&P500 Strong buy signal if the 4H MA200 holds.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been pulling back since the August 28 All Time High (ATH) and is headed for a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) test.
This is a major short-term buy point as since April 25, every contact with this trend-line (6 so far) resulted into a new rally/ Bullish Leg.
The last two in particular rose as high as the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. So as long as the 4H MA200 holds, that gives us a 6530 short-term Target.
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S&P500 3-month Channel Up still valid. Buy.The S&P500 index (SPX) kept its 3-month Channel Up intact last week despite a short-term correction as the price stopped exactly on its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) and following Chair Powell's remarks on rate cut possibilities, it rebounded aggressively.
Given also that the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been its long-term Support since May 01, the stage is set for the pattern's new Bullish Leg. With the last one being +8.80%, we expect the index to hit at least 6750 next.
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S&P500 Can the 4H MA50 save the day again?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a short-term pull-back following the new All Time High (ATH) on August 15 of the 3-month Channel Up. It is just above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the most common level of Support throughout this pattern, before the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which formed its last Higher Low.
As a result, as long as it holds, it is more likely to see a continuation of the Bullish Leg that started on the 4H MA200 bounce (August 01). The previous Bullish Leg peaked on a +8.80% rise, so that gives us a medium-term Target of 6750.
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SPX Weak Bearish Bias → 6440P Caution Trade
# 🏦 SPX Weekly Options Analysis – 8/18
📉 **Market Context**
* Mixed signals across metrics → weak bearish bias
* Price below VWAP → potential short-term downside
* Volume insufficient → low conviction
* Call/Put ratio neutral → no strong directional bias
---
## 🎯 Trade Setup (Cautious Put)
* **Instrument**: SPX
* **Direction**: PUT (SHORT)
* **Strike**: 6440
* **Expiry**: 2025-08-18
* **Entry Price**: \$0.60
* **Profit Target**: \$1.20
* **Stop Loss**: \$0.30
* **Size**: 1 contract
* **Confidence**: 60%
* **Entry Timing**: Market Close
---
## 📈 Breakeven @ Expiry
👉 6439.40 (Strike – Premium)
SPX must **close < 6439.40 by market close** to profit at expiry.
---
## 🧠 Key Risks
* Mixed signals → potential whipsaw ⚡
* Market structure unclear → downside not guaranteed
* Theta decay risk → short-term option, fast time decay
---
# ⚡ SPX 6440P SHORT PLAY ⚡
🎯 In: \$0.60 → Out: \$1.20
🛑 Stop: \$0.30
📅 Exp: 8/18
📈 Bias: Weak Bearish, trade cautiously 🐻
---
📊 **TRADE DETAILS JSON**
```json
{
"instrument": "SPX",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 6440.0,
"expiry": "2025-08-18",
"confidence": 0.60,
"profit_target": 1.20,
"stop_loss": 0.30,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.60,
"entry_timing": "close",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-18 15:02:25 UTC-04:00"
}
S&P500 Channel Up going straight to 6670.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up since the May 12 candle. All of this time, it has been supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and as long as it holds, the new Bullish Leg is expected.
The last two rose by +7.06%, and ahead of a new 1D MACD Bullish Cross, that gives us a medium-term Target of 6670.
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S&P500 This is why every CORRECTION is a GIFT.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been steadily rising since the April bottom to new All Time Highs (ATH). On the grand 100 year scale, the February - March tariff fueled correction, has been nothing significant. The last true technical correction has been the 2022 Inflation Crisis because it touched, and instantly rebounded on, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line).
This is not the first time we bring forward our multi-decade perspective on stock and in particular this chart. But it serves well, keeping us into the meaningful long-term outlook of the market. This suggests that since the Great Depression and the first signs of recovery after the 1935 - 1941 Bear Cycle, the market has entered a multi-decade Channel Up, which is divided into long-term aggressive expansion periods (Bull Cycles) and shorter term depressions (Bear Cycles).
During a Bull Cycle, every test of the 1M MA50 is a instant cyclical buy opportunity and in fact that isn't presented very often. During a Bear Cycle, the market makes an initial aggressive correction below the 1M MA50, turns increasingly volatile for 5-7 years, trading sideways within the Channel Up with its second peak resulting into a 2nd correction that eventually breaks below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line).
That is what we call a 'generational buy opportunity' as in the past 80 years, it has only been taken place 2 times.
Right now (again this is not something we mention for the first time), the market is at the start of the A.I. Bubble, with incredibly strong similarities with the Internet Bubble of the 1990s.
In fact, relative to the Internet Bubble, it appears that we are on a stage similar to 1993 - 1994, before the market turned parabolic to the eventual Dotcom Bust of 2000.
As a result, from a technical perspective, every 'small' correction such as the one we had this year, is a blessing in disguise (buy opportunity). As the index grew by 5 times during the Internet Bubble (300 to 1500), it is also very possible to see it approach this feat going from roughly 3500 (late 2022) to 14000 (by late 2032) and touch the top of the multi-decade Channel Up.
Are you willing to miss out on this generational wealth creation opportunity?
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S&P500 Critical short-term crossroads.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up since for the entirety of July and right now is ahead of important crossroads. It either breaks out above the pattern or pulls back to price a new Higher Low.
Based on the 4H CCI and the similarities with the June 24 - 25 consolidation, there are higher probabilities to break upwards. That fractal reached the 2.0 Fibonacci extension after it broke out. We will wait for confirmation and if it's delivered, we will buy the break-out and target 6460 (just below Fib 2.0 ext).
Until then, being so close to the Channel Up top, makes a solid short opportunity targeting a Higher Low (bottom). The previous one was priced exactly on the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) so that's our target or 6250 if it comes earlier.
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S&P500 Accumulation almost over. New rally begins.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up pattern, within which, it's been replicating almost the same structure. This involves an aggressive Bullish Leg Phase (dotted Channel Up), followed by a correction/ Accumulation Phase (blue Channels), which eventually leads to the new Bullish Leg.
The 1D RSI fractals among those patterns are similar and right now it seems that we are about to complete the latest Accumulation Phase. Having completed a 1D Golden Cross 2 weeks ago, the time-frame looks more bullish than ever and as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, we expect at least a +5.68% rise (the minimum of the previous Bullish Legs), targeting 6550.
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S&P500 Strong Buy Signal flashed for the 3rd time in 2 years!The S&500 index (SPX) is comfortably trading above its previous All Time High (ATH) and shows no signs of stopping here. Coming off a 1D MA50/ 100 Bullish Cross, we expect the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to turn now into the first long-term Support going towards the end of the year.
The last 1D MA50/ 100 Bullish Cross (December 15 2023) was nothing but a bullish continuation signal, which extended the uptrend all the way to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, before a pull-back test of the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) again.
The 1W RSI is now on the same level (63.30) it was then. In fact it is also on the same level it was on June 05 2023, which was another such bullish continuation signal that peaked on the 2.0 Fib ext.
This suggests that we have a rare long-term Buy Signal in our hands, only the 3rd time in 2 years that has emerged. Based on that, we should be expecting to see 7600 as the next Target before it hits the 2.0 Fib ext and pulls back to the 1D MA100 again and there is certainly enough time to do this by the end of the year, assuming the macroeconomic environment favors (trade deals, potential Fed Rate cuts etc).
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S&P500 Bullish Leg not over yet.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the May 07 Low and is currently unfolding the latest Bullish Leg.
As you can see, it is far from having topped, not just by a plain trend-line (Higher Highs) perspective but also based on the Fibonacci and % rise terms relative to the previous Bullish Leg.
That peaked after a +7.10% rise, a little above the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result, a 6330 Target on the short-term is more than fitting.
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S&P500 1D Golden Cross, middle of 3y Channel, much upside to go!The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the final sell-off of the 2022 Inflation Crisis. The only time this pattern broke was for 4 days during the bottom formation (April 2025) of the recent Trade War.
Ahead of the first 1D Golden Cross since January 26 2023, the market looks more bullish than ever as it is trading within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci range of this Channel Up, suggesting that there is considerable upside before it tops.
The last Bullish Leg that started on the Channel Up bottom and peaked before a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test grew by +28.30%. Expecting a repeat of that, we may see the price targeting the 0.786 Fibonacci level at 6550 before the next 1D MA50 pull-back.
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