SPY & SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 14, 2025🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 14, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚨 Shutdown disruption continues: The entire Retail Sales + PPI complex — normally one of the biggest monthly movers — is still at risk of nondelivery. Markets will trade on expectations, not prints.
📉 Volatility watch: With CPI, Claims, and Retail Sales all in backlog, positioning remains thin and reactive to yields + global risk sentiment.
💵 Bond market tone dominates: Without fresh inflation data, Treasury moves may guide SPX levels more than usual.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
All major data below is shutdown-risk flagged.
⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Oct)
Forecast: -0.2%
Shutdown delay risk — high
⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales ex-Auto (Oct)
Forecast: +0.2%
Shutdown delay risk — high
⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index (PPI, Oct)
Headline: +0.1%
Core: +0.3%
Shutdown delay risk — high
⏰ ⚠️ 10:00 AM — Business Inventories (Sept)
Forecast: +0.2%
Shutdown delay risk — medium
👉 All above data normally moves markets, especially Retail Sales + PPI.
Today, traders only get the reaction if the numbers publish.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice.
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