TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – BTC (4H)📉
1. Main trend – still down
I see a clear downward trend channel (yellow lines) on the chart. The price is moving in the lower half of the channel, which means that supply pressure is still dominant.
2. Rebound, but under strong resistance
The recent upside breakout looks more like a correction in a downtrend than a reversal.
The closest resistance levels I see on the chart:
94,500 – 95,000 → EMA + local level
96,000 – 96,500 → next EMA
98,000 – 99,000 → key level where the SMAs are located
Until BTC breaks above 96,500–97,000, there's no way a sustained trend reversal will occur.
3. Current Reaction at the SMA/EMA
The price touched the red moving average (SMA?) but was rejected—a classic reaction in a downtrend.
This signals:
a lack of buying power,
a predominance of supply in the 93,300–94,500 area.
4. Support Levels I See
At the bottom, you have specific lines that make sense:
89,900–90,000 → key support
89,500 → marked level
87,600–86,500 → lower part of the channel + previous bounce
If BTC loses 89,500, a move to the 87,000–86,500 area is very likely.
5. MACD – early, but cautious signal
The MACD has started to move up, but:
there is no clear crossover yet,
the histogram is weak.
Interpretation:
The rebound continues, but there is no confirmation of a trend change.
6. RSI – slightly bullish, but neutral
RSI ~49, so:
it is not oversold,
it is not overbought,
there is room for both a further rebound and a decline.
The RSI does not provide a strong directional signal.
📌 Summary – what looks most realistic?
Baseline scenario (60% chance): continued decline
Price will rebound to:
94,000–95,000,
possibly to the upper band of the channel (95–96K),
and be rejected → a decline to 89,500, and then 87,000–86,500.
Bullish scenario (40%): breakout of the channel
We need to see:
a 4-hour candle close above 96,500,
preferably a retest and hold,
only then can we talk about a trend reversal and a move towards 98,500–100,000.
📈 Market assessment (neutral–bearish)
Everything indicates that we are only in a correction within the descending channel. Until BTC breaks ~96.5K, the advantage is on the bears' side.
