USD/JPY - Potential Sell offMy notes of this Pair:
USD/JPY – 1H Breakdown (Clean SMC Flow)
📌 1. Market Context
USD/JPY is still trading inside a bullish HTF structure, and the recent 1H movements are simply internal retracements inside that bullish leg.
The chart shows:
A clean sweep of sell-side liquidity (SSL)
A strong displacement candle upward
A bullish correction forming a ChoCH
Price now making its way back into 1H supply
This gives us a short-term bearish reaction expectation before continuation.
🟠 2. Liquidity Story
The liquidity is extremely clean here.
Sweeps Identified:
SSL at the low → swept
BSL inside internal structure → taken
Next meaningful target → External BSL above 155.00
So liquidity narrative:
👉 Sweep the lows → retrace → deliver up into higher BSLs.
Everything aligns with bullish continuation after the pullback.
⚪ 3. Pullback & Mitigation Zone
Price dipped into the 1H imbalance (IMB) and the 4H discounted zone (the grey block), tagging:
71% fib retracement
4H/1H overlap zone
Clear IMB at the origin
Lower liquidity (SSL) swept before tapping the zone
This is a textbook pullback.
Your chart marks this as the higher-low formation, which is valid given the sweep and BOS.
🧱 4. Current Structure
After the clean ChoCH to the upside, price has:
Printed a small BSL above current price
Begun climbing back into 1H supply
Rejected once, but maintaining bullish structure
Still holding HL → HH sequence
This means:
👉 The bearish push was corrective.
👉 Control is shifting back to buyers.
🎯 5. The Bullish Delivery Target
Your chart marks a clear upside objective:
🎯 External BSL @ ~155.05–155.10
This is the magnet for price.
Before that, the 1H supply zone (grey box) will be the first reaction point.
If supply holds briefly → expect pullback.
If supply breaks cleanly → straight shot to the BSL.
🔥 6. Likely Path (Based On Your Drawing)
Your projected arrow makes perfect sense:
Price taps into the 1H supply
Rejects slightly
Forms a deeper HL
Then pushes up to take the External BSL
This is the cleanest, most logical sequence.
📉 7. Trading Notes
Bias = Bullish
SSL swept → bullish
ChoCH confirmed → bullish
Pullback into 1H IMB → bullish
Next target → External BSL
The only invalidation would be a deep break below the SSL sweep, which would signal redistribution rather than accumulation.
