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DXY UpdateDXY — The Volume Cap: Where Momentum Meets Memory Every market has memory — and in the Dollar Index, it’s sitting right at 97.4. That’s the current Volume Cap — a zone where heavy participation once stopped price cold, leaving unfinished business behind. Price loves to revisit these caps, testing whether the imbalance still holds or finally gives way. ⚙️ Context (4H | Friday Recap) Friday delivered heavy volume and clean directional flow — a textbook session. DXY continues to rotate within the 97.048–99.198 range, holding a short-term bullish tone inside a larger consolidation. 📊 Technical Map • Structure: Long-term bearish range inside a broader consolidation phase. • Momentum: Still bullish, but showing early fatigue. • Volume Cap: The 97.4 level remains unfilled, acting like a magnet for potential retests — the true battleground between continuation and correction. 🌐 Fundamental Pulse After a month of running hot, the dollar finally cooled. Retail Sales and Industrial Production softened, yields eased, and traders started whispering “rate cuts” again. The Fed’s cautious tone keeps volatility contained ahead of next week’s Core PCE inflation data. 🧭 Trade Plan (If/Then) If DXY runs through 97.4, watch for a bearish Volume Cap flip — potential downside toward nearby support. If Monday’s price action drives higher, expect bullish momentum rotation back toward the 97.0 retest region.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by CORE5DAN
DXY — 4H Fibonacci Discount ZoneDXY — 4H Fibonacci Discount Zone: bounce or breakdown? Context (4H | Pre-London | 16 Oct) Dollar Index is testing a 50% Fibonacci discount zone after an overnight -2 deviation. Volume remains light, but buyers stepped in near the 98.2 region, defending short-term structure. Big picture still leans bearish Technical Map • Structure: Consolidation within broader bearish context — 4H recovery attempts forming. • Key Level: 98.2 acting as short-term decision point; deviation off 50% Fib zone. • Momentum: −2 deviation within 4H range — early shift toward mean reversion. • Volume: Heavy order flow support beneath 98.0; thin liquidity overhead until 98.6. Structure overall remains bearish, but short-term momentum favors a corrective bid from the Fibonacci discount zone. Fundamental Pulse The Fed minutes gave us a small dip in yields, but the Dollar didn’t flinch — it’s still holding firm. Sticky inflation keeps the Fed cautious, reinforcing that “higher-for-longer” tone. Now all eyes turn to today’s CPI at 15:30 EET — the real test for rate expectations. For now, rates steady, risk tone calm, traders waiting for direction. Plan (If/Then) If DXY pushes above 98.6, expect momentum toward the 99.0 zone. Break below 98.05 reopens path toward 97.6–97.4 support band. R:R potential ≈ 1 : 3 — solid setup if volatility expands post-CPI. Stay patient and scale small before the CPI lands. Mindset Pulse Observation beats anticipation. Let price confirm your story, not the other way around. Stay aligned with structure; one mouse click can cost a narrative.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by CORE5DAN
BTC TECHNICAL UPDATE BTC TECHNICAL UPDATE Price action still bearish in structure, hunting liquidity below. 107 ich Now we’re trading around −1.5 deviation, with technical volume metrics confirming heavy, controlled selling. Order flow remains high-volume bearish, but the intent looks mechanical: liquidity grab → reset → build new base. Current map Targeting the 107ich zone — likely final liquidity pocket of this leg. Below that, bids start stacking, hinting that large players already positioned. If volume compresses and delta flips positive, expect shift back range. Execution note: Treat this as high-frequency setup, not a swing setup. Keep size light, manage per-trade risk — structure says “controlled drive,” not “capitulation.” — Daniel Fadeley
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN
US DOLLAR IS FILLING IN DISCOUNT Traders are pricing in a possible Fed rate cut, while fresh U.S.–China trade tension adds uncertainty to global flows. Technically, the dollar sits in its weekly mid-range, printing a 5th inside bar behind last Thursday’s move — the classic order-loading phase. Price is rotating between a key bullish low weakness zone at 98.30 and a bearish order block near 99.00 — a compression range where liquidity builds before expansion. Structure remains bearish-biased but currently in bull-back mode. Buyers are pressing into bearish volume nodes, leaving no clean swing setups — just a 50/50 zone where patience pays. Expect one side of this range to be cleared before the next directional leg. Until then, we stay tactical — cross-market focused, scalping for bread and butter while the market sets up its next move.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by CORE5DAN
EUR/USD — BEARISH FRACTAL TAKES SHAPEEUR/USD is developing a fresh bearish fractal, printing a high at 1.19187 after months of consolidation since June. We’ve already broken last month’s low, and price now sits in alignment with the expanding dollar structure. Momentum is building — a massive move may unfold next month, but for now confirmation is key. If October closes bearish, this market confirms a full structural breakdown. The June low near 1.1720 becomes Target 1, and I’ll be trading it heavy on a confirmed close. Until then, the play is patience — hunting range discounts and watching orderflow rotations for clean continuation setups. From a macro perspective, the dollar’s strength remains clear. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is pressing toward 99.197, an algorithmic expansion zone supported by volume analytics and internal order flow. Rising U.S. yields and sustained capital inflows continue to pressure the euro, while Eurozone industrial output fell 4.3% month-on-month with Germany down 18.5%, underlining structural weakness. From the CORE5 lens, structure leads, liquidity confirms, fundamentals justify. As long as dollar momentum holds and EUR/USD fails to reclaim last month’s structure, the bias remains lower.
Short
by CORE5DAN
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) — TECHNICALS FIRST, FUNDAMENTALS SECOND Technically, the key level this week is 99.197. If DXY manages a bullish close above it, we should see a weekly structure shift higher. That opens the door for 99.8 → 101.5 as internal algorithmic targets. This isn’t wishful thinking — this is how systems behave when liquidity regimes flip. Under that lens, any rejections beneath 99.197 or weak closes around it remain valid short setups — but only after structure gives the nod. Don’t force trades ahead of confirmation. In the background, the dollar is reacting to trade-war rhetoric and political shifts. Trump’s 100 % tariffs on Chinese imports raised volatility, but he later softened his tone, suggesting more cooperation than conflict. Its complet currency war. Meanwhile, some analysts argue a bullish case for the dollar remains due to relative U.S. productivity strength and higher real yields. These narratives give motive, but do not override price structure. So from CORE5’s frame: structure leads, news lags. Let clean price confirmation in the 99.197 zone tell you whether to lean into long bias or respect the risk of failure. Eyes locked.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
1
BITCOIN — STRUCTURE SHIFT INSIDE BEARISH RANGEBitcoin has filled the 116.3 to 114.9 imbalance and is now trading inside a defined bearish range. Lower-timeframe structure has shifted downward with significant volume left behind, which suggests this is not a place to buy into strength. Price has completed the imbalance fill, and the next question is whether this area becomes a market-maker trap or a true continuation leg. If smart money continues to build short positions, distribution could follow. If liquidity dries up and buyers absorb, the trap scenario takes shape. Patience remains the correct position. Focus on the 15-minute to 1-hour range for confirmation. A break of structure, a clean rejection, or a failed retest around 116.3 will define the next directional move. Until that occurs, any trade inside this zone is a low-probability action. On the macro side, the U.S. Dollar Index continues higher, signaling risk aversion and tighter global liquidity. Bitcoin does not move in perfect correlation, but capital still follows the path of safety when the dollar strengthens. In the current environment, the edge lies in observation and precision, not anticipation. Let structure confirm before committing. Probabilities always favor the patient.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN
BITCOIN UpdateBitcoin x Dollar Bitcoin delivered four clean trades last week — precise structure, high control. Now we’re sitting right inside the buy zone, near the lower negative deviation of range volume. Yesterday’s session was flat, typical Sunday noise. Today, volume’s tightening — energy’s building. The key structural area is 121 698. That’s our bearish distribution ceiling — the level that’s kept price capped for weeks. If Bitcoin holds below, we stay in distribution. But if it breaks and confirms above, the market opens clean air for a strong leg higher. Macro adds spice here: The U.S. shutdown still delays core data, the dollar’s stretched, and liquidity’s thin. If DXY breaks lower, Bitcoin could fly hard — fast. But remember, volatility in these conditions ignores perfect TA. I learned that lesson long ago — great setups fail when macro chaos takes the wheel. Stay patient. Watch 121 698 — that’s where the real story starts.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CORE5DAN
Dollar at Max Deviation — Watching 99.197 CloselyThe dollar had another wild week, closing around 99.197 — right on the edge of major structure. Most traders see strength, but when you zoom out, this move looks stretched. Yields have started to cool off, which takes pressure off the dollar’s safe-haven run. We still got smaller data releases like PMIs and Fed talks, but the big stuff like CPI is on hold until the U.S. shutdown clears. Even the IMF warned about growing liquidity risks in global FX — meaning sudden spikes or fake outs can happen fast when markets get thin. Technically, we’re in a bearish zone on the higher timeframe. The last three months of liquidity targets are already taken, and the market’s now trading inside maximum deviation — a point where algorithms usually reset before any new trend forms. That’s why 99.197 matters: it’s the last shelf before structure confirms the drop. If price breaks and holds below that level early next week, momentum likely shifts bearish. If it holds above, expect more sideways chop before a correction. For now, it’s all about patience and tracking structure — not emotions.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by CORE5DAN
1
BITCOIN UpdateWeekly Wrap: The Dollar Holds the Key BTC hit the highs, we shorted the trap, and rode it clean back to range low — 109,358. That level? It’s the bearish validation line — the hinge between bull control and breakdown. Now, price rejected 109 and bounced. As long as this weekly candle closes above 107,250, structure stays technically bullish. No weakness on tape, just normal liquidity rotation. That’s why I’m closing the heavy shorts and keeping only micro runners. The market still reads algorithmically bullish unless that low gives way. The wildcard, as always: the Dollar. We’re sitting in a high-probability sell zone. If DXY rolls over, that fuels risk-on flow — BTC, Gold, and Euro all breathe again. But if market makers squeeze it higher, that’s death to metals and crypto. Expect a sharp flush across the board. 📊 Bottom line: → BTC structure intact. → DXY in sell territory, but not confirmed. → Watch weekly close — 107,250 is everything. Stay calm. This is the part where most traders misread rotation as reversal.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CORE5DAN
BTCUSD update Bitcoin just smashed through another order block and slipped straight into the discount zone — the area where opportunity often hides. Price has flushed thru last oredblock and is now sitting deep in liquidity pockets Structure remains bearish in the short term, but momentum hints at a possible rotation higher if we see dollar to reclaim lower levels, lets see what next week brings to us This has been an incredible trading week — multiple clean plays across majors and BTC delivering textbook structure. Now comes the patience phase. Let price confirm before adding exposure. #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #SmartMoney #CORE5TRADECRAFT #MarketStructure #OrderFlow #TradingView
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN
US Dollar RECAPDollar Index (DXY) — Range Heat Building You’ve got a weekly bearish range, with a key high at 99.8 and price now trading into bearish distribution around 99.0. The dollar’s been front and center this week — while Washington argues over funding, it’s been doing real damage across cross-asset charts. Price has been printing higher lows all week, grinding inside this bearish range. That’s your profit-taking zone, not an add-on zone. Stay patient. Let the range speak.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by CORE5DAN
BITCOIN IDEA Bitcoin is still stuck in a sideways range. KEY level bullish is at 122,300, and right now price isfilling orders near 121,183 daily cap. That means we’re kind of in the middle — not super strong, not super weak. The daily trend is still up, but price is pulling back a bit to fill orders. If Bitcoin starts dropping, 118,543 is the next big level to watch. If it holds and bounces, we might see another push higher. If it breaks, we could fall deeper into that lower area. The U.S. dollar is strong this week → makes it harder for BTC to move up. Jack Dorsey (the Twitter guy) just dropped a new Bitcoin wallet — cool for long-term use. So for now: stay patient, watch 121K and 118K zones, and don’t chase candles.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CORE5DAN
US DOLLAR TARGETS HITThe U.S. government is still shut down, so no fresh economic data is coming out. That means everyone’s trading half-blind right now—no jobs numbers, no inflation updates, just noise. But the chart still tells the truth. All the bullish dollar targets were hit exactly as planned, and now price is sitting right under that 99.8 key high. That’s the line that decides everything. If market makers push price higher than 99.8, the bullish phase stays alive a bit longer. If it fails there, we drop back into bearish discount territory, where value sits lower and sellers regain control. Over the past four months, liquidity’s been building above those highs. Now we’re watching a classic stop run—price pushing up to take out weak hands before the real move begins. That’s why cross markets like stocks, gold, and crypto are slipping. The dollar’s acting as a safe spot while everything else bleeds. But the volume looks thin, which usually means manipulation, not genuine demand. Without the usual USD data, it’s all a guessing game until the Fed minutes drop later today. For now, it’s simple: the 99.8 zone is the make-or-break level. Stay patient, read the structure, and let the chart talk. Price always moves to where orders are missing, and stops where they’re full. Follow that rule, and you’ll never feel lost in the noise.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
EUR USD and DOLLAR UPDATE The Dollar Index (DXY) is grinding through a daily order block and has just pierced 97.882. Technical If we close above 97.882, that confirms a break and opens continuation toward higher liquidity zones. With tomorrow’s heavy macro news, the setup has volume behind it for a potential massive move. Macros U.S. government shutdown is weighing on confidence and trimming growth forecasts (each week may shave 0.1–0.2pp off GDP). The Fed remains cornered — markets price in rate cuts, but policy credibility is under scrutiny. Safe-haven flows are mixed: gold at records, dollar stabilizing after Supreme Court support for Fed’s Cook. Data releases are being delayed by the shutdown, which adds uncertainty and volatility. EURUSD We’re short and holding. 4-month rangebound structure remains Be aware Dollar strength is being fueled by technical break + macro volume. EURUSD is vulnerable if DXY confirms above 97.882. But with policy risk and shutdown uncertainty, expect volatility spikes and liquidity hunts around tomorrow’s big data.
TVC:DXYShort
by CORE5DAN
BITCOIN USD UPDATE🚀 “117,998.17” — We Hit the Trigger We pierced a massive rally threshold today (117,998.17) — a short squeeze or momentum flush — yet dollar and gold remain locked in ranges. That dissonance tells you this is a liquidity-game market, not a clean trend. We’re still trading in what I’d call an overpriced arena — volatility amplified, direction masked. Price action will mislead until a big macro break comes. The dollar remains boxed: Value Area High ~98.322 / Low ~96.747. Gold, meantime, is ripping higher under safe-haven flows, hitting record highs amid shutdown fears and rate cut bets. Meanwhile, bitcoin is getting a bullish tailwind. Whale accumulation, institutional demand, and macro narratives favoring digital gold are pushing sentiment. Macro catalysts (Fed, U.S. jobs, fiscal politics) could fuel either direction — but the setup is leaning toward asymmetric upside in risk assets if USD weakens. LOOK OUT: Liquidity hunts likely before clarity — expect fake-outs. Dollar must break its box for cross-pairs and cryptos to trend. Bitcoin is better aligned with the upside in this regime than dollar or gold.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CORE5DAN
US DOLLAR LIQUIDITY GAMES🇺🇸 US Dollar Range Politics – Liquidity Before Clarity The dollar isn’t trending — it’s negotiating. 📊 Current Setup U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 98.322 → testing the value area high Range Floor: 96.747 → the value area low Structure: Bearish range, with liquidity being hunted before any true direction emerges. 🏛️ Macro Backdrop Tariffs are reshaping global flows. Fiscal gridlock + shutdown risk clouds investor confidence. Inflation + Fed policy signals remain mixed. Every headline feels like an amendment to a bill no one fully understands. The result: the dollar drifts sideways in a liquidity-seeking phase. Traders should expect chop inside the box until a decisive catalyst (data, Fed action, or policy shift) provides clarity. 🌍 Cross Pair Impact This stalemate spills into the majors: EURUSD & GBPUSD → reflecting the same sideways ranges and fake-outs. USDJPY → volatility compressed, waiting for dollar direction. Crosses are trading in sympathy — liquidity hunts on both ends, with no clean trend until DXY escapes its range. 🧭 Takeaway: The dollar is boxed in by politics and policy. Patience rules here: trade the range, wait for the breakout.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by CORE5DAN
EUR/USD Macro + Technical TargetLiquidity Run Complete • EUR/USD swept last week’s key high and stalled. • Dollar Index (DXY) just balanced on its weekly range—classic setup for a euro fade if USD strength resumes. Macro Undercurrent • U.S. Side: September core PCE inflation held at 2.8% y/y, keeping the Fed cautious about rate cuts. Futures now price only ~40 bps of easing into Q1. • Eurozone Side: HICP inflation slowed to 2.4% and the ECB’s minutes flagged “weak growth, sticky wages.” Rate-cut odds for March keep rising. Levels to Watch • Resistance near 1.17540,todays High • Southbound magnets: 1.16455 Lows
Short
by CORE5DAN
Bitcoin Chart Marks Its 2 Big Next Stops: $105K → $98KBitcoin has spent three months consolidating near record highs. That kind of sideways grind usually ends with a liquidity hunt. If the dollar finishes its current swing higher, Bitcoin likely tags the mid-range support zone next. Two major downside targets remain on the map for the coming months. Probability of a flush lower sits around ~80% It’s a normal structural move: after heavy consolidation, price seeks liquidity before the next sustained leg. Dollar drifts lower as U.S. growth stays hot—Q2 GDP +3.8% and a government-shutdown risk on deck. Bitcoin presses $111K–112K resistance while whales quietly accumulate after recent liquidation spikes. Price is at the hinge: soft USD supports risk, but volatility is loaded. Trade the structure, not the noise.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN
BTC USD PLAN Bitcoin’s chart is one thing, but the bigger story is what’s driving the money behind it. The Fed & Yields The Federal Reserve is still the invisible hand. Every surprise in rates—whether a hotter inflation print or a sudden hint of deeper cuts—moves global risk appetite. Lower real yields = cheaper capital = stronger bid for assets like BTC. A hawkish turn does the opposite. Institutional Flow Big money isn’t just buying dips—it’s writing new rules. Case in point: asset manager Strive is set to acquire about 5,800 BTC (≈ $675 million) through a corporate deal. Moves like this tighten available supply and add a slow, steady demand base. Bitcoin Technical View This week’s candle is shaping up bearish, and Monday will tell us if today’s Sunday session finishes the job. If the market doesn’t fill that daily gap, we’ll be watching Monday’s open closely. Right now the daily range runs from 113,999 down to 108,644. If the dollar pushes into higher liquidity zones, Bitcoin could feel the pressure and drift lower. The plan is simple: wait for a clear shift on the smaller time frames before making any move and calculate risk from there. Patience matters more than bravado—let the market come to you. For now, the setup still looks constructive, but it only pays to act when the levels confirm. Trade small, stay calm, and protect your capital first.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN
US DOLLAR LIQUIDITY GAMES MAPThe U.S. Dollar is testing traders resolve. Price action keeps pressing higher, and a daily close above 97.394 would confirm a classic “fractal low” — the kind of structural pivot that lures late buyers before the real move unfolds. 3 Key Insights Macro Calendar – Stay alert: Thu – Final Q2 GDP, Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders. Fri – Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending, University of Michigan Sentiment (final). These are the week’s steering currents for USD flows. A daily close above 97.394 is the key trigger to confirm a fresh leg higher. • EUR/USD short bias remains valid while DXY stays bid, but expect intraday volatility around data releases.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
EUR/USD – Volume MapPrice is still holding a bullish lower range between 1.16595 and 1.19187. The main volume distribution sits mid-range, and today’s action feels like absorption—market makers testing liquidity rather than chasing a breakout. Key trigger to watch: If sellers push into the 1.17365 volume node, it opens the door for a deeper move toward the lower end of the range. Stay nimble; if that node holds, we could just grind sideways. Macro side-note: Dollar sentiment remains shaky after a 10% drop in 1H 2025 and growing chatter about fiscal risks and gold hedges. European investors have been keeping more capital at home, which can add undercurrents of euro support even when U.S. data wobbles. Bottom line: 1.17365 is the battleground. Break and hold below → watch for fresh lows. Hold and absorb → range trade continues.
Long
by CORE5DAN