USDTHB Downward Trend Continues The Thai baht over the past week started out the week sideways, but like the Singapore dollar ended the week up. This pair is a bit more impacted recently from political risk surrounding its election and because of this we may see more volatility not related to technical or fundamental components. Nonetheless, its important to keep in mind the overall trend remains downward sloping and a continued weakening of the US dollar. Moreover, price action remained in theshort-term trend line resistance range at the week's end reinforcing the notion that linear downward resistance is difficult to break. Additionally, the technical picture for USDTHB over the next week looks like it could revert back to the mean where RSI points towards overbought and the bull bear indicator suggests USDTHB long is overcrowded. Meanwhile, exponential moving averages also suggest continuation of our downward trend. In sum, USDTHB is still short.
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Thaibaht
USDTHB Stalled Momentum, Still Trends DownOrdinary least squares method suggests we are still trending down in this pair even as many other Southeast Asian currencies are trending much further down such as USDSGD as can be seen here: In that respect, Thailand is an under-performer, but momentum has stalled even though some of the technicals are pointing towards a bit of an upward rebound. However, I am of the view that we still need to trend down a bit more before this sentiment can be achieved.
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Target hit. Now reversing on a Channel Down. Short.TP = 33.600 hit as the previous 1D Channel Up aggressively broke to the upside (as indicated by the 4H consolidation mentioned on the previous post) and peaked at 34.650. Now a new 1D Channel Down has emerged (RSI = 30.614, MACD = -0.139, Highs/Lows = -0.2244, B/BP = -0.4740) aiming at a Lower Low near the 31.850 support. We are short with TP = 32.000.
Consolidation before Channel Up continuation. Long.USDTHB should enter a consolidation phase on 4H (as seen on the Rectangle with high volatility, ATR = 0.0861) in order to bring down the overbought values on the most recent bullish run on the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 72.893, Williams = -12.000). The suggested course of action is to buy on every dip within the Rectangle, TP = 33.600.