Thatta Cement Co. Ltd. (Daily chart analysis):Current Situation: 📉
Price: 72.49 PKR, down 9.35% (significant drop!)
MAJOR BREAKDOWN IN PROGRESS - This is a critical technical event! ⚠️
Key Technical Observations: 🔍
Trend Structure:
Beautiful uptrend from June 2024 to October 2025 ✅
Massive parabolic rally from 50 to 108 (116% gain!) 🚀
NOW: Sharp reversal and breakdown from highs 💥
Price broke below the white ascending trendline support 📉
Fibonacci Extension Levels:
2.618 (43.52): Extended target (not reached)
2.414 (34.24): Secondary extension
1.618 (13.42): Base extension from earlier rally
Critical Support/Resistance: 🎯
Resistance (Now turned into overhead supply):
Immediate: 76-78 (broken trendline + previous support)
Strong: 84-88 (gap fill zone)
Major: 95-100 (psychological level)
Massive: 105-108 (recent highs - unlikely to revisit soon) 🔴
Support:
Current battle: 70-72 (attempting to hold) ⚔️
Critical: 60-65 (major support zone + gap support) 🛡️
Strong: 52-55 (pre-breakout consolidation)
Major: 43-45 (2.618 Fib extension + historical resistance) 💪
Volume Analysis: 📊
MASSIVE volume spike on the breakdown day (circled in purple) - Classic distribution! 🚨
Previous volume spikes throughout the rally (circled in orange/blue)
Today's volume at 24.68M is extremely elevated - Panic selling detected! 😰
Pattern Recognition: 📐
Parabolic blow-off top - Classic exhaustion pattern 💨
Potential gap down creating overhead resistance
Break of multi-month ascending trendline (white line) ⚠️
This looks like a "climax top" pattern
Technical Outlook: 🎲
Bearish Scenario (HIGH Probability - 75%): 🐻
Gap down with massive volume = Strong distribution
Expect further downside to 60-65 zone (-15% from here) 📉
If 60 breaks, next stop: 52-55 (-25% from here) 😬
Worst case: Full retracement to 43-45 zone 💀
Neutral Scenario (Medium Probability - 20%): 😐
Finds support at 68-70 and forms a base
Choppy consolidation for several weeks
Needs to reclaim 78-80 to stabilize ⚡
Bullish Scenario (LOW Probability - 5%): 🐂
Immediate V-shaped recovery above 78-80 (unlikely given volume)
Would need massive buying volume to negate this breakdown 🤷♂️
Trading Strategy: 💡
For Current Holders: 😰
RISK ALERT: Major technical damage done! 🚨
Consider cutting losses if breaks below 68-70 decisively
Stop loss: 67 (limit further damage) 🛑
This could be a 20-30% correction scenario
For Buyers: 🤔
DO NOT catch the falling knife! 🔪
Wait for stabilization and basing pattern
First entry opportunity: 60-65 zone (if reached with calming volume) ✅
Better entry: 52-55 zone (safer, more attractive R:R) 💰
Best entry: 43-45 zone (if we get a full retracement - high reward!) 🎁
For Traders: 📈
Short-term bounce possible to 76-78 (dead cat bounce?) 🐱
Any bounce is a selling opportunity until structure improves
Watch for lower highs and lower lows pattern 📉
Key Signals to Watch: 👀
Volume normalization (needs to dry up) 💧
Stabilization above 68-70 for 3-5 days ⏰
Reclaim of 78-80 with volume (trend change signal) 🔄
Risk Assessment: ⚖️
🔴 HIGH RISK ZONE 🔴
Parabolic moves up = parabolic moves down
The bigger the rally, the harder they fall 💥
This stock went up 116% in ~15 months - expect 30-50% retracement
Sentiment has shifted from greed to fear 😱
Bottom Line: 🎯
This is a textbook breakdown from a parabolic rally. The massive volume confirms institutional selling. Stay on the sidelines until the dust settles. Patience will be rewarded with better entry prices! 🧘♂️
