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Bitcoin - Ultimate Swing Short As a compilation and summary of my previous ideas explaining in depth this signal - the why, when, how - here are the specific details for this swing short position. Entry - 109,000 to 109,200 Stop Loss - 113,600 Target 1 - 97,600 Target 2 - 81,000 Target 3 - 63,400 Target 4 - 34,800 (Here is where I’ll potentially be signalling for a hedge long on Bitcoin from 34,700 to 80,000 - trading the retracement wave) Target 5 - 20,000 Target 6 - 8,000 Ultimate wick bottom expected to be 7,200 to 7,800 range. Good luck to all and any questions at all, please comment below. I’ve linked any related ideas to this post here which you can view below. - DD
Short
by DickDandy
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Wed (Oct 22)Key catalysts and schedule (ET): The federal shutdown continues, pausing most government statistics. There is no 8:30am tier-1 macro release expected. The energy markets will receive the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 10:30am. Of particular note, the Fed’s Michael Barr is scheduled to speak during the U.S. day, a potential market-moving event. Earnings reports from AT&T, Thermo Fisher, Boston Scientific, and Vertiv before the open, and IBM after the close, could also sway the index mood. Key zones — resistance: The 6,765–6,795 zone, serving as the weekly/daily supply and prior high-high band, remains a crucial area of focus. It is the first ceiling to consider. The 6,820–6,830 zone becomes an intraday magnet if we manage to hold above 6,795. The 6,840 stretch target is a significant level that requires time above 6,795 first. The 6,852–6,855 zone is a potential squeeze extension, but only if momentum persists beyond 6,840. Key zones — support: 6,725–6,735 is the prior NY session high / POH pocket and first decision area on any overnight strength that fades; 6,701–6,705 is the 1h equilibrium and flip line for intraday bias; 6,685–6,690 is the intraday pullback shelf and first buyable dip if 6,701 briefly slips and reclaims; 6,655–6,665 is the 1h demand pocket that keeps the rebound credible; 6,604 is the deeper extension stack that only comes into play on risk-off. Overnight → NY forecast: baseline expectation is a range build under the 6,765–6,795 ceiling with stop-runs into the band and fades back toward 6,735 and 6,705; acceptance and sustained holding above 6,795 turns the tape constructive toward 6,820–6,830, with a paced push to 6,840 and only a momentum extension opening 6,852–6,855; loss of 6,701 during Asia/London that does not quickly reclaim tilts the path toward 6,690 and 6,665 before buyers try again; if 6,665 gives way decisively, risk opens to 6,604 where a larger bounce attempt is favored. Setups (Level-KZ Protocol, 15m→5m→1m) Short fade at the 6,765–6,795 band on the first clean test: enter on a 15m close back inside the band and a 5m re-close with a lower-high; place SL above 6,805–6,810; target 6,735 for TP1, 6,705 for TP2, 6,690 for TP3; if TP1 prints, close 70% and set the 30% runner to BE. Long continuation only after real acceptance above 6,795: wait for a 15m full-body close above, then buy the 5m pullback that holds 6,795–6,800; SL 6,785; target 6,820–6,830 for TP1, 6,840 for TP2, 6,852–6,855 for TP3. Quick-reclaim bounce at 6,701–6,705: if we sweep 6,701 and instantly reclaim on 1m/5m, buy the reclaim with SL 6,695; target 6,735 for TP1, 6,771–6,780 for TP2, 6,795 test for TP3. Deeper flush-and-reverse at 6,655–6,665: buy only on confirmation (15m wick-rejection + 5m higher-low); SL 6,649; target 6,690 for TP1, 6,705 for TP2, 6,735 for TP3. Bear continuation only if 6,701 is lost and holds below: sell the underside retest of 6,701–6,705; SL 6,712; target 6,690 for TP1, 6,665 for TP2, 6,604 extension for TP3 if momentum expands. Bias and invalidation: The market currently exhibits a ' two-sided bias ', meaning it is neither bullish nor bearish, while we are trapped between 6,705 and 6,795. The tape turns constructive for extensions only after holding above 6,795 for multiple 15m closes. The intraday bias flips lower if we slip and cannot reclaim 6,701 on 15m closes. Invalidate any long if 6,665 breaks and holds; invalidate any short if we base above 6,830 and the first pullback defends 6,820. Kill-zones and execution plan: Asia (20:00–00:00 ET) is optional and sized down; look for the 6,701 sweep/reclaim; London (02:00–05:00 ET) favors range probes into 6,735 or 6,705; NY AM (09:30–11:00 ET) is primary — fade the first touch of 6,795 if we gap under it, or buy the 6,795 pullback if we gap and hold above; manage lunch as maintenance only (12:00–13:00 ET); NY PM (13:30–16:00 ET) allows a final push toward 6,840 only if 6,820–6,830 converts to a floor. Risk and management rules (applied to all plays): use a hard stop anchored to the relevant 15m wick ±0.25–0.50; take no partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70% and move the runner to BE; allow no more than two attempts per level per session; time-stop any trade that hasn’t hit TP1 or SL within 45–60 minutes.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
BTC - Don’t Rule Out this PossibilityPer my “Ultimate Swing Short Setup” analysis, the bulk of this plan and idea is due to Bitcoin situating itself underneath this major trendline. Although I’m predicting corrective wave structures to take us here - I’m also of the opinion that it’s entirely possible we see a flash crash / wick straight to 7,400 to 10,000 zone. How would this be possible? For over 3 years bitcoin has been moving in a slow upwards consolidation. This price movement attracts and accumulates long position stop loss orders / sell orders. Orders that only fill when price crosses down the level. Technically and mechanically speaking, it’s entirely possible we stop straight to sub 10,000 in a fast movement. No bear market required - just a straight up flash crash ending in a wick to 8,000. See my related linked ideas below. Be careful and good luck. - Dick Dandy
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by DickDandy
29
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis Week-Ahead (Oct 20th - 24th)Market Structure Overview Price has shown a robust rebound from last week's discount levels, now trading back near the 6,720 area following a swift flush and subsequent V-shaped recovery. Currently, we remain capped under the supply zone between 6,765 and 6,795, which represents the previous swing-high levels. As long as we trade below this resistance, our primary strategy will be to sell into strength and buy on dips within the established range, rather than pursuing breakouts. On the hourly chart, key equilibrium is noted around the 6,701 to 6,705 range; this serves as the pivotal point around which price action is currently oscillating. Setups (Level-KZ style) Reclaim-and-go long (Tier-1 / Tier-2): Asia/London: hold above 6,701–6,705 after a shallow dip → in NY AM, take the first 5m re-close + 1m HL toward 6,725–6,735. Scale/target: TP1 6,725–6,735, runners toward 6,765–6,780 if strength persists. Invalidation: 15m body back below 6,701. Flush-and-reclaim long (Tier-3 bounce): • Quick sweep into 6,655–6,665 (or even 6,685–6,690) during London → immediate reclaim → first HL entry. • Targets: back to 6,701 then 6,725–6,735. Invalidation: 15m close back inside/under the swept zone. Pop-and-fail short (fade): • Squeeze into 6,725–6,735 that fails to accept (15m rejection back inside) → take the first 5m LH. • Targets: 6,701 then 6,685–6,690. Invalidation: 15m body acceptance above 6,735. Stop-run reversal short: • Spike into 6,765–6,795 (look for wick/absorption) → 15m rejection → 5m LH entry. • Targets: 6,735 then 6,701. Invalidation: sustained 15m/30m acceptance above 6,795. Management: Anchor hard SL to the relevant 15m wick of the trigger ± a small buffer; require TP1 ≥ 2R to the next major level. At TP1, trim most and put the runner to BE; max 2 attempts per level per session. Overnight to Tomorrow NY Forecast Base Case: Anticipate a range build between 6,685 and 6,735 overnight as the market absorbs the recent rebound. During the NY AM session (09:30–11:00 ET), initial attempts may test the 6,725–6,735 resistance before pulling back towards 6,701, potentially moving within the 6,685–6,690 range. Should buyers maintain support at 6,701 on a 15-minute chart, watch for a late-morning rebound back to the 6,725–6,735 zone, with a potential squeeze toward 6,755–6,780 if we see acceptance above 6,735. The bias shifts to a bullish trend only with clear acceptance above 6,795, which would indicate multiple strong closes in that area, potentially targeting 6,820 and beyond. On the other hand, a decisive move below 6,655 would trigger a downward extension toward 6,604, 6,564, and 6,520. Execution windows (ET) • London: 02:00–05:00 — look for the sweep/reclaim plays. • NY AM (primary): 09:30–11:00 — best momentum/rotation. • NY PM: 13:30–16:00 — continuation or mean-revert back into the day’s pivot. What changes the plan Acceptance above 6,735 early: favor continuation to 6,765–6,780 rather than fading. Hard failure at 6,701 with sellers defending on 15m: expect a deeper test into 6,685 → 6,655–6,665. Elevated macro headlines/data at 08:30/10:00 ET windows can temporarily override levels; let the impulse print, then trade the retest.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
SPX Bullish Trend / Elliot analysisOur analysis of this index suggests that we are currently in the development of a Wave 4 (W4) within the last bullish substructure of the macro fifth wave, where, in the long term, we could potentially see the end of the trend between the 7100 and 7600 levels. At the moment, the price appears to be moving within the final substructure, which seems about to begin a Wave 4 (W4) correction. 💡 This is just my opinion — always remember to do your own analysis!
SP:SPXLong
by AsernaTK
BTC MARKET UPDATE 🔥 **$117K-$115K Zone:** Critical hold – Strong demand area! Expect bounce-back to $127K+.It's essential for BTC to defend this level to maintain bullish momentum ⚠️ DYOR | NFA This pullback came after a strong rally driven by institutional ETF inflows, dovish Fed signals, and seasonal "Uptober" momentum, but it's now consolidating near key support levels. The market sentiment is mixed: bullish on longer-term fundamentals but cautious short-term due to overbought conditions and profit-taking.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Crypto-Adda_Official
ETH UPDATE - Return to Entry Level, Short Trade InitiatedIn similar fashion to the Bitcoin trade today, here is details on my ETH Short Flash Crash idea. For detailed information and explanation, please see my linked related posts made today. Entry / Risk Management: Entry - 4,460 to 4,480 Stop Loss - 4,800 Take Profits: 1) 3,400 - 20-50% Closure 2) 2,550 - 20% Closure 3) 1,650 - 40-60% Closure 4) 200 - 100% Closure ETH may create a 3 wave corrective move - and I will be hedging with a long position from 1,600 to 3,000 - timed entry with Bitcoin hitting 35,000 I will buy SPOT ETH only at the range of 200-500 Yours truly, - DD
Short
by DickDandy
1
BTC - Trade Setup Today for my Flash Crash Plan Branching off my previous two posts today, which are linked below and give an in depth analysis and theory behind this idea and plan, here are the details of my short trade on Bitcoin. Entry - 121,400 to 121,700 Stop Loss - Keep it Tight at 127,400 in case Bitcoin moves up to 126,800 to form the head of an inverse head and shoulders (unlikely but I keep two direction ideas in mind always) Take Profits: 105,700 - 10% Closure 85,800 - 10% Closure 67,900 - 20% Closure 43,800 - 60% Closure From here, if I see Bitcoin start to rise from 35,000 - I will open a hedge long position, fully close 80% of short, and DCA all profits back into my short at 92,000 to 93,000 21,600 - 60% Closure 10,000 - 100% Closure From here, I will buy BTC on spot at 8,000 to 10,000 Any questions feel free to comment below. For each laughing face I will add in more to my short, which I am logging for a future post. Yours truly, - DD
Short
by DickDandy
71
BTC Will Flash Crash to 35,000 / 8,000 - This is the Theory I’ve been seeing a lot of comments on my posts about this, discreting the idea, or claiming there’s no reasoning behind it. Here I will dive deeper into the WHY by presenting this on the weekly time frame. In recent times, we have witnessed many times on a small scale what happens after we see a slow, downwards consolidation and price movement. On the way days as shorts are accumulated, they leave a trail above the price that contains buy orders that don’t automatically fill if price is below. These buy orders are short stop loss orders and short liquidation orders. As Bitcoin moves down, the price will then slowly begin to rise. Sooner or later, there is a high volume candle on the minute time frame pushing price up - into the series of short position buy orders. What follows is a very fast upwards candle as these buy orders are filled and the shorts are stopped out, liquidated, and traders enter longs. Think of this as a replacement of positions. The market makers use the traders own decisions, to get themselves into the positions they want to be in. They cannot make those choices, but they can manipulate and entice traders to make the wrong decision. Market makers who allow traders liquidity to take leveraged positions, they want their money back and to an extreme lesser degree, don’t want you taking profit in a winning trade. Hence, we see these very fast moves occur, which were once known as “stop hunts”. These stop hunt candles, extreme, fast price movements that liquidate and stop out trades by nature, can be understood by chart analysis. If you read disclaimers for the heat map platforms (IE Coinglass), you’ll see that these are only predictions, and not based on real data. The only accurate way of understanding where these hidden orders are, is by chart analysis. On my chart are red boxes. These red boxes are drawn from the upwards consolidation zones, where price never came down to reclaim the liquidity from. These zones are filled with long position sell orders that don’t automatically fill when price is above. You can imagine a ladder of sell orders, one after the next, all the way down through the boxes. Now you may think, how can Bitcoin lose all that value if we drop to 8,000 when there’s ETF’s, Strategy, Holders, etc? The answer is - the majority of Bitcoins market cap, including companies like Strategy who leverage, is all liquidity used for leveraging and trading derivatives. It is liquidity supplied by market makers and exchanges, and has no bias towards price going up or down. It’s liquidity that’s fluid, moves in and out, and while you may think that bitcoin would “lose” all the value if it drops to 8,000 momentarily - you must think of it another way. Bitcoin is a balloon of dollars. The dollars doesn’t affect the function of what Bitcoin does. People from all over use their money to inflate that balloon, and a liquidation event such as a stop loss, then deflates that balloon and transfers the wealth into very few pockets. The balloon is then quickly re-inflated by the liquidity that’s first deflated, and becomes inflated again by the long orders placed and the shorts stopped out or liquidated. It’s highly likely the “floor price” of bitcoin is $8,000 - the amount of bitcoin held in stable sources divided by the dispersed amount of bitcoin on the market. The rest is leveraging liquidity, that is simply a function of inflating and deflating, moving in and out and accommodating orders of both directions - or in other words, the “ gambling industry” within Bitcoin. Now, TECHNICALLY SPEAKING We have 2 key trendlines to show. The first is an ascending channel, that starts at the 8,000 zone. Price consolidated around it all throughout the chart. Duplicating this trendline we can find a channel, and I show that as the lower red ascending line. This is the main support and resistance we have to understand. The second trendline is shown in grey. This is again a bearish trend that Bitcoin has been consolidating around since its bottom. This trendline breakdown takes Bitcoin to 35,000. If price drops from current level to 35,000 - we can measure the downwards movement, place that measurement from 8,000 - and see that we would form a bear pennant type pattern, rise back up to the RETEST OF THE BOTTOM RED CHANNEL LINE, and then fulfill the measurement of the downwards move all the way to 8,000. Technically speaking, we can use pattern prediction and support resistance levels to serve as confluence for the liquidity levels and the mechanics of this drop. So there we have the MECHANICS and TECHNICALS Additionally about the mechanics or the HOW… the more times Bitcoin doesn’t drop down, moves up - the more of those sell orders are accumulated. The more TIME Bitcoin spends doing this, and the more AMOUNT of times Bitcoin wicks up like this - this means the FASTER and MORE POWERFUL the drop will be as a consequence. This is very simply because of the amount of sell orders accumulated in the chart. The more sell orders there are, and the greater the quantity of Bitcoin ordered to be sold, the faster price will drop down. So in theory, these drops will be the fastest movements we’ve ever seen in bitcoins history. It’s quite literally a chart filled with rocket fuel and propellant, and all it takes is a fuse to be lit. Thank you
Short
by DickDandy
5
XAUUSD Analysis: Rising Wedge StructureThe 1-hour chart of Gold (XAUUSD) is currently presenting a rising wedge structure, a pattern known for its potential reversal characteristics when it forms after a strong upward move. This wedge is neatly defined by converging support and resistance trendlines, capturing price action within a narrowing upward channel. Scenario 1 – Bullish Breakout Above the Wedge Resistance In the bullish case, if the price breaks above the upper resistance trendline decisively with strong momentum and volume, it will signal a continuation of the uptrend. This could push Gold prices toward $3,920–$3,960 and possibly even the psychological $4,000+ mark in the short term. For this to play out, the breakout should be clean and sustained, not a false spike followed by a quick sell-off. Traders looking for long opportunities should wait for a confirmation candle and place stops below the breakout zone. Scenario 2 – Bearish Breakdown from the Wedge Support Alternatively, if Gold fails to break out and drops below the wedge's lower support, it will trigger a bearish reversal pattern. This breakdown could accelerate downside momentum, pulling prices back toward $3,820, followed by $3,760, and possibly even $3,700 or lower. Such a breakdown would confirm the wedge's bearish implications and shift intraday sentiment into a corrective or reversal phase. In this scenario, short trades can be considered with strict stop-loss placement just above the breakdown candle. Scenario 3 – Sideways Consolidation Before Decision If neither a clear breakout nor breakdown occurs, Gold may enter a sideways consolidation zone around current levels ($3,860–$3,880). This would indicate temporary indecision in the market and a potential buildup before a sharp move in either direction. This type of price action can trap both bulls and bears if acted upon prematurely. Therefore, in this scenario, it is best to remain neutral and patient, waiting for volatility to pick a direction. Final Thoughts for Traders Gold is at a critical juncture, and traders must approach this setup with discipline. The rising wedge structure demands clear confirmation before execution, and each scenario offers its own opportunity — but also its risks. Always follow strict risk-reward ratios, and avoid emotional trades inside the wedge before confirmation. Keep an eye on macroeconomic events or dollar strength/weakness that could act as a catalyst for the breakout or breakdown.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by TradZoo
1
BTC - Short Initiated from Channel Breakdown Short Update going to plan. Updated numbers and anticipated 3 wave corrective drop marked on chart. 113,000 to 35,000 (SHORT) 35,000 to 84,000-85,000 (LONG) 84,000 to 8,000 (SHORT) For my personal trade I will be closing roughly 80% of short at 40,000-45,000 I will then look for a hold and rise from the 35,000 region to validate that we will see this corrective move. I believe there is a high probability of this - reasons I will detail more as the trade progresses. Chart would be too messy if I included all information on future confluences and pivot points. If I see this rise occur, I will hold the 20% original short - and hedge with a long as well to 80,000 - 35,000 to 80,000 The reason the market is dropping is once again: 1. The significance of DXY breaking down a major multi month bearish channel 2. The fact that this is a bearish retest on BTC HTF - not a bull market or bull pattern 3. There is a mass amount of liquidity held in open longs in Bitcoin - we need to see a severe deleveraging of these low zones to remain bullish Happy trading - please see related linked ideas.
Short
by DickDandy
BTC Short Update - First Entry Point Hit Hi all, we have hit the first entry level on this trade idea again, and I will provide you with updated numbers. First of all - to those asking “why” this would happen - please see my related idea on DXY as well as Blackrock. For those asking “how” it’s possible, please see my tutorial on drawing heatmaps and understanding how bitcoin moves. For those following my ideas, I explain order block analysis, my theory on how Bitcoin moves, and here we have a trading plan compiling it all together. In theory, these drops should happen very quickly - as I explain the technicals of it in the order block tutorials. Entry - 116,300 to 116,800 Stop Loss - (Can be lowered to 118,000) Targets: 1) 90,000 2) 62,000 3) 38,000 After the third target we will likely rise to 86,000-88,000 area - however the short may be held all the way to 8,000. 88,000 is a major bearish trendline - I expect this will break, we will form a 3 wave corrective pattern and rise back up to retest this level. 4) 20,000 (Potential bottom 18,000) 5) 10,000 God speed and happy trading.
Short
by DickDandy
27
ES (SPX) - Analyses - Key zones - Trade Setups for Tue, Sep 16Bias: BUY DIPS into 6653–6643. Continuation long on 15m acceptance ≥ 6722–6726 with a 5m hold. Counter-trend short only on a clean 15m rejection at 6722–6726 (2.0R gate). Why bullish bias (even with short fade allowed) So, here’s why I’m leaning bullish (but I’m cool with a short fade now and then): First off, when you check out the higher time frame (HTF), the trend is up. It’s usually a better bet to buy when prices dip rather than trying to call the top. Then there's the risk situation: if we look at support around 6638–6643 and resistance levels at 6678/6700, we can set up for a nice 2R–3R trade with tight stops based on the 15-minute chart. As for shorts, we’re going against the trend here. The only reason to short would be if we hit major resistance around 6722–6726. But if we don’t see a proper rejection, I’m not going to push it—I’ll just stick to going long. Setups: Long — Dip Buy (primary) • Zone: 6653–6658 (Support-Initial) → 6638–6643 (Support-Next). • Trigger: 15m reclaims support (body back above) → 5m re-close up with HL → 1m HL entry. • SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50. • TPs: 6678–6683 → 6700–6706 (then trail only after TP2). Tomorrow’s key U.S. events (ET) • Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales — 8:30 (consumer pulse; can move index futures). • Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization — 9:15. • NAHB Housing Market Index — 10:00. • Import/Export Price Indexes — 8:30. • Treasury bill auctions (4- & 8-week; supply headline). • FOMC (two-day) begins Tue; decision & SEP/dot plot Wed. • Monthlies/OPEX: Fri Sep 19 (flows can affect tape later in week). Long — Acceptance Continuation (secondary) • Flip condition: 15m full-body ≥ 6722–6726 and 5m holds ≥ 6720–6722. • Entry: 6721–6723 HL retest. • SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50. • TPs: 6760–6765 → 6804–6808. Short — Rejection Fade (counter-trend, extremes only) • Zone: Resistance — Major 6722–6726 (or 6700–6706 if Major remains untagged). • Trigger: 15m sweep & body back inside → 5m LH re-close → 1m fail/reclaim sell. • SL: 15m sweep-high +0.50. • TPs: 6678–6683 → 6653–6658 → 6638–6643.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by MyAlgoIndex
1