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Master TradingView Like a Pro – Tools, Alerts, and Hidden Gems!Are you really using everything TradingView has to offer? In this video, I’m breaking down 8 powerful features inside TradingView that most traders don’t fully use — even though they can save time, improve your analysis, and help you catch better setups. Here’s what I’ll walk you through step by step: ✅ How I use Drawing Tools to map market structure ✅ Why I rarely use indicators — but why you should still know them ✅ How to scan markets fast using the Screener & Heatmap ✅ The right way to use the Economic Calendar and avoid news traps ✅ The feature I use daily: Price Alerts (a total game changer) ✅ How to practice with zero risk using Paper Trading ✅ Using Multi-Chart Layouts to watch multiple timeframes ✅ And finally — how the TradingView Community helped me grow and connect Whether you're just getting started or already experienced — this video is packed with value. Watch it till the end, and if you find it helpful — like, comment, and share it to support my work! Best, Arman Shaban
Education
by ArmanShabanTrading
21
The Secret Formula: Time + Structure = 80% Win Rate!Hello everyone, If you’re struggling to combine Time (multi-timeframe analysis) and Structure (market framework) to build a solid foundation for predicting what’s likely to happen in the market, this post will reveal the secret many professionals use — with up to 80% win probability! 1. The Core Mindset – Time & Structure Every timeframe speaks a different language: - H4, D1 = the bigger picture (overall trend). - M15, M5, M1 = the micro view (entry signals, internal flow). The key is: never rely on one timeframe alone – always align them. 2. POI – Points of Interest - Each timeframe has its own POI (Points of Interest). - Example: When you find a POI on H4 , don’t rush in. Zoom into M15 or M5 to see what’s happening inside that zone. 3. Multi-Timeframe Alignment – The Smart Money Way For example: - H4: Price taps into a demand zone. - M15: Structure shifts from bearish → bullish inside that demand zone. This means H4 is preparing for a rally, and M15 confirms your BUY entry with higher precision. When multiple timeframes align in the same direction, your probability skyrockets. 4. Why Always Respect the Bigger Picture? - LTF (Lower Timeframe) = just noise or details. - HTF (Higher Timeframe) = the real storyline. If M15 shows a BUY but H4 is strongly bearish, you’re fighting the market. But if M15 and H4 point the same way , you have a High Probability Setup . 5. Keys to High-Probability Trading Identify the higher timeframe trend (H4, D1). Mark strong POIs. Drop to lower timeframes (M15, M5, M1) to watch for structure shifts. Only trade when Time & Structure are aligned. Always manage risk – place SL beyond OB/POI zones. 6. Final Takeaway High-probability trades appear when multiple timeframes confirm the same direction. Don’t trade on gut feeling — let Time + Structure guide you, just like Smart Money does.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Kenn_Nguyen
4
Gold’s Relentless Rally: Hard Lessons Every Trader Must Face💥This past week, Gold surged without a single technical pullback. The rally was so sharp and one–sided that many traders who were holding Sell positions had no chance to exit safely. The result? Blown accounts, heavy drawdowns, and a painful reminder of what happens when we ignore risk. 📉 When the Market Ignores Technicals Technical Analysis (TA) works—until the market decides otherwise. In periods of aggressive flows, patterns, indicators, and even trendlines can fail completely. At such times, the only thing that separates survivors from blown accounts is risk management and discipline. 🔑 Trading Lessons You Can’t Afford to Ignore 1️⃣ Stop Loss is your life jacket – Without it, one wrong move can sink your entire capital. 2️⃣ Never hold onto losing trades hoping for a reversal – The market doesn’t care about your hopes. 3️⃣ Capital management is more important than perfect analysis – One bad trade should never define your future. 4️⃣ Accept losses to survive – The best traders aren’t always right, but they always live to fight another day. 💡 A Message to Every Trader Last week’s move in Gold taught us one brutal truth: 👉 No discipline = No capital. 👉 No capital = No trading career. If you’ve taken heavy losses, don’t let it break you. See it as a turning point to rebuild with stronger rules and discipline. Markets will always offer opportunities, but only for those who protect themselves first. ✅ Final Takeaway This week, don’t just stare at charts—revisit your trading plan and strengthen your discipline. Remember: discipline may not make you rich overnight, but it will keep you alive long enough to get there.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by MMFlowTrading
1
Best Trading Confirmation. Learn 95% Accurate Entry Signal I have analyzed 1300 forecasts and signals that I shared on TradingView last year and found 95% accurate trading confirmation. In this article, we will discuss multiple types of confirmations and their winning rate on Forex, Gold, Indexes, Crypto & Commodities. First, let me introduce you to the types of analysis that I provided. 1 - Structure based forecast I have shared more than 55 trading setup with key levels analysis: Where the price is approaching a key daily horizontal support and resistance. Here is the example of such a post. Test of a key horizontal or vertical support/resistance turned out to be a poor trading signal. Total accuracy of structure based forecasts is 38%. Please, note that if we consider the market trend in our calculations, the trend-following structure based setup will be 42% accurate, while a performance of a counter trend setup drops to 35% 2 - Structure breakout based forecast I analyzed and posted 73 posts with a key structure breakout as a confirmation on a daily. Above is the example of a such a forecast. Key levels breakout turned out to be a strong bullish or bearish confirmation with 59% accuracy. Trend direction did not affect the efficiency of a key structure breakout that much, with a 60% accuracy of a trend following setup versus 57% of counter trend. 3 - Structure based forecast with a single intraday confirmation I shared more than 500 setups with a test of a key structure on a daily and a single price action based bullish or bearish confirmation on a 4h/1h time frame. My intraday confirmation is a formation of a price action pattern with a consequent breakout of its neckline/trend line in the projected direction. Please, check the example of such a signal. Just a single intraday confirmation dramatically increases the accuracy of a structure based setup. Average winning rate is 66%. 4 - Structure based forecast with multiple intraday confirmations I spotted and posted 200+ forecasts with a test of a key structure on a daily and multiple price action based bullish or bearish confirmations on a 4h/1h time frame. Multiple confirmations imply the formation of multiple price action patterns on 4/1h t.f. Here is the example of such a setup on EURGBP. Two or more confirmations on a key structure increase the average winning rate to 72%. Among multiple confirmations, I found a 95% accurate bearish signal: The market should be in a bearish trend. The price should test a key daily structure resistance. The market should form a rising wedge pattern on a 4h/1h time frames and the highs of the wedge should strictly test the key structure and should not violate them. After a test of structure, the price should form a bearish price action pattern on the highs of the wedge. Above is a setup with the best trading confirmation. A bearish breakout of the neckline of the pattern and a support of the wedge was a 95% accurate trading signal last year. Of course, there are various confirmations, depending on a trading style. The ones that I shared with you are structure/price action based. And I am truly impressed by their accuracy. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Education
by VasilyTrader
23
6 Best Tips for Small Trading Accounts (Forex, Gold) This useful trading tips will help you to efficiently start trading with a small trading account. A quick note: by a small account, I mean an account size from 10$ - 2000$. 1 - Trade less often Small account implies a limited amount of money for trading. It means that among dozens of trading opportunities that you spot during a trading day, you should carefully pick only the most promising ones. I recommend opening maximum 3 trades per day. 2 - Stick to one strategy One of the ways to trade less frequently is to stick to one single trading strategy. Most of the traders do completely opposite: instead of focusing on one approach, they prefer to trade multiple ones simultaneously. Trading various strategies requires a lot of capital. The more strategies you follow, the more margin is needed. With a small trading account, you are risking being left without a free margin for all the trading opportunities that the strategies provide. 3 - Trade liquid instruments with low spreads When you are picking the financial instruments for your trading, make sure that you select the most liquid ones. You can assess the liquidity of the instrument by a spread. The bigger is the spread, the less liquid is the asset. Take a look at a spread difference between EURUSD and CHFJPY. The spread on EURUSD is 0.1 pip. While the spread on CHFJPY is 2.7 pips. Spreads directly affect the costs of trading. Bigger spreads reduce the potential profits and increase the risks. Make sure that you choose the assets with the lowest spreads possible. 4 - Shorten the list of trading instruments One more option to trade less often is to narrow down the list of your trading instruments. I recommend choosing the maximum of 7 instruments. 7 USD Major Forex Pairs: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD NZDUSD AUDUSD USDCHF is a perfect watch list for a small account trader. 5 - Don't trade higher time frames Be careful when deciding a time frame to trade. Remember that the higher is the time frame, the bigger are the stop losses for your traders. On the left chart is the swing trade that I took with my students on EURUSD chart on a daily. While on the right is the scalping trade taken on 30 minutes time frame. A stop loss for swing trade is 90 pips and a stop loss of scalping position is 19 pips. Big stop losses require more free margin and limit the amount of the trades that you can take simultaneously. For that reason, prioritize lower time frame trading with a small trading account. 6 - Don't risk more than 2% per trade When traders trade with a small trading account, they often risk a huge portion of their trading account per a single trade. If you have 100$ trading account, and you risk 20$ per trade, the nominal value of that risk does not look huge. But from a percentage standpoint, it is 20% of the total balance. Just a 5 trades losing streak will blow such an account. Make sure that you apply a position size calculator and risk no more than 2% of your account per trade. Following these recommendations, you will be able to build an effective trading plan that will help you to grow your capital quickly. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
13
Watching for a Head & Shoulders on AUS200Watching AUS200 for a potential short setup — possible head and shoulders on the hourly chart. Left shoulder and head complete; waiting to see if right shoulder forms to confirm. All my setup variables are met so far. #GTradingMethod calculates take profits using the distance between the head’s peak and neckline, projected downwards. Risk/Reward: 3.4 Entry: 8838.3 Stop Loss: 8865.8 TP1 (50%): 8753 TP2 (50%): 8716 Join the journey, what are your guys and girls thoughts on how to trade a head and shoulders, and does anyone track the AUS200? Disclaimer: Please note, this is not financial advice. This content is intended to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only
OANDA:AU200AUDShort
by GTradingMethod
Crude Oil: Equilibrium, Key Levels & Trade ScenariosNYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! Market Recap In our prior crude oil commentary, we identified a bullish flag formation with key support anchored at the Q3 micro composite Value Area Low. Following a measured pullback, prices decisively reclaimed the Q3 micro composite Value Area High, subsequently advancing toward the $70 level. However, this upward momentum proved unsustainable, with prices unable to maintain higher ground. We have since retraced to the yearly open, where the market is now consolidating. Current Market Structure Crude oil is presently exhibiting a balanced profile. Notably, the composite Volume Points of Control (VPOC) for both the yearly and quarterly profiles are overlapping — a technical signal indicative of equilibrium in positioning. Market Performance Assessment Price action in recent sessions has been heavily influenced by shifts in the global demand outlook, which in turn remain sensitive to macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical events, and OPEC+ V8 members’ gradual unwinding of voluntary production cuts. Despite the prevailing headwinds — including tariff disputes, Russian sanctions, and broader trade tensions — crude oil has demonstrated resilience, consistently trading above the $65 threshold. Forward Outlook Attention will turn to today’s EIA release at 9:30 a.m. CT, which may serve as the primary catalyst for near-term directional bias. Key Technical Levels • Q3 mCVAH: 67.28 • Neutral Zone: 66.45 – 66.30 • Yearly Open: 66.34 • Intermediate Support: 65.80 • CVPOC / mCVPOC: 65.54 • Q3 mCVAL: 64.95 • Support Zone: 65.00 – 64.80 Trading Scenarios • Scenario 1 — Yearly Open Rejection Monitor the Yearly Open (66.34) as an initial resistance level. A rejection here could prompt a tactical pullback toward the Line in the Sand (LIS), offering long entry opportunities with a target above the yearly open. • Scenario 2 — DOE-Driven Flush & Recovery Should the DOE data trigger a downside push, watch for a swing failure at recent lows. A close back above prior levels would present a potential long setup, with conviction increasing on sustained price action above 65.80.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
2
Markets Eye Policy, Positioning, and PerformanceCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! COMEX:GC1! FRED:FEDFUNDS Happy 4th of August, Traders! As we head into the new week, here’s a look at what’s on the calendar: Key Economic Data Releases Monday: • Factory Orders (MoM) – June • Supply: 3-Month Bill Auction, 6-Month Bill Auction Tuesday: • Trade Balance (June), Exports (June), Imports (June) • S&P Services PMI (July), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (July) • Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) – Prelim • Supply: 52-Week Bill Auction, 3-Year Note Auction Wednesday: • German Factory Orders (MoM) – June • Crude Oil Inventories • FOMC Member Daly speaks at 11:45 CT • Fed Governor Cook speaks at 1:00 CT • Supply: 17-Week Bill Auction, 10-Year Note Auction Thursday: • Bank of England Interest Rate Decision • BoE MPC Meeting Minutes, Inflation Letter, MPC Vote • BoE Governor Bailey speaks at 8:15 CT • FOMC Member Bostic at 9:00 CT • Supply: 30-Year Bond Auction Crude Oil Update OPEC+ V8 members have announced an additional 547K bpd unwinding of voluntary cuts. Notably, crude prices have not reacted significantly to the expected OPEC+ figures. As we’ve previously highlighted, the market's focus remains firmly on demand-side factors. Despite geopolitical shocks, trade tensions, and recession concerns, crude oil prices have remained relatively stable—trading within a consistent range for over two and a half years since August 2022. According to Amena Bakr at Kpler, the V8 will meet again on September 7th to potentially reassess the reinstatement of 1.65 million bpd of cuts, currently scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026. Earnings Recap With over half of S&P 500 companies having reported Q2 earnings, YoY earnings growth is now projected at 9.8%, compared to the 5.8% estimate as of July 1, per LSEG data cited by Reuters. More than 80% of reporting companies have surpassed analyst profit expectations—well above the 76% average from the past four quarters. Macro Outlook Fed Vice Chair Williams provided further insight into the central bank’s posture ahead of the September FOMC meeting, stating he remains open-minded but continues to believe that modestly restrictive policy is warranted. Williams also emphasized that the notable downward revisions to May and June payrolls were the key takeaway from Friday’s jobs report, reinforcing the theme of softening labor market momentum. In addition, the Fed announced on Friday that Governor Lisa Cook will resign from the Board effective August 8. A replacement is expected to be named in the coming days, though it is not anticipated to materially alter the policy outlook in the near term. Looking ahead, if both inflation and unemployment tick higher between now and the September FOMC meeting, it would represent a worst-case scenario for the Fed. The August NFP report due on the first Friday of September and July and August 2025 inflation reports are key data points to monitor before the next FOMC Meeting on September 17th, 2025. Although equity futures sold off on Friday following a disappointing jobs report, market pricing has adjusted notably. Participants now expect the Fed to deliver three rate cuts in 2025 and two cuts of 25bps each in 2026. This marks a shift from pre-NFP expectations of two cuts in 2025 and three cuts in 2026, per CME FedWatch Tool. Market Implications: On the back of rate cut expectations, in our analysis, this may help sustain upside in the equities complex. Although, it may be prudent to adjust portfolio and re-balance strategically according to sectors that may continue to outperform namely tech, AI, defense stocks, commodities and USD per our analysis.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by EdgeClear
NFP Miss Implications: Recession Signal or Rate Cut CatalystCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! Happy Friday, folks! Today is the first Friday of August, and that means the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers came in at 7.30 am CT. US Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul) 73.0k vs. Exp. 110.0k (Prev. 147.0k, Rev. 14k); two-month net revisions: -258k (prev. +16k). Other key labor market indicators were as follows: • US Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.1%) • US Average Earnings MM (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%) • US Average Earnings YY (Jul) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.7%, Rev. 3.8%) • US Labor Force Particle (Jul) 62.2% (Prev. 62.3%) Data and Key Events Recap: What a year this week has been! It's been packed with high-impact economic data and pivotal central bank decisions, especially from the Federal Reserve. On top of that, trade and tariff announcements have dominated the headline. U.S. economic data this week was broadly strong. Second-quarter GDP came in at 3.0%, beating expectations and signaling solid growth. The ADP employment report also surprised to the upside, printing 104K vs. the 77K forecast. Consumer confidence showed resilience as well, with the Conference Board’s reading rising to 97.2. Inflation data was mixed but mostly in line. Core PCE for June rose 0.3% MoM, while the YoY reading ticked up to 2.8%, slightly above the expected 2.7%. The broader PCE Price Index also came in at 0.3% MoM, with a YoY print of 2.6%, slightly higher than forecast. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50%. Notably, Governors Waller and Bowman dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point rate cut as expected, however, marking the first dual dissent by governors since 1993. Changes to the FOMC Statement included a downgraded assessment of economic growth, reflecting slower real consumer spending. The Committee reiterated that uncertainty around the economic outlook remains elevated. It maintained its view of the labor market as "solid" and inflation as "somewhat elevated." Forward guidance remained unchanged, emphasizing the Fed’s readiness to adjust policy as necessary while continuing to monitor risks to both sides of its dual mandate. Here’s a summary of key points from the FOMC press conference: • On current policy stance: “We decided to leave our policy rate where it’s been, which I would characterize as modestly restrictive. Inflation is running a bit above 2%... even excluding tariff effects. The labor market is solid, financial conditions are accommodative, and the economy is not performing as if restrictive policy is holding it back.” Chair Powell commented on the need to see more data to help inform Fed’s assessment of the balance of risks and appropriate Fed Funds rate. • On labor market risks: “By many statistics, the labor market is still in balance... You do see a slowing in job creation, but also a slowing in the supply of workers. That’s why the unemployment rate has remained roughly stable.” • On inflation and tariffs: “It’s possible that tariff-related inflationary effects could be short-lived, but they may also prove persistent. We’re seeing substantial tariff revenue—around $30 billion a month—starting to show up in consumer prices. Companies intend to pass it on to consumers, but many may not be able to. We’ll need to watch and learn how this unfolds over time.” Trade Headlines: US President Trump announced tariffs on countries ranging from 10%-41%. Average US tariff rate now at 15.2% (prev. 13.3%; 2.3% pre-Trump), according to Bloomberg. US officials said that if the US has a surplus with a country, the tariff rate is 10% and small deficit nations have a 15% tariff, US officials said they are still working out technicalities of rules of origin terms for transshipment and will implement rules of origin details in the coming weeks. No details on Russian oil import penalty. Sectoral Tariffs White House said new reciprocal tariff rates take effect on Friday. Although Canada’s tariffs were increased to 35%, excluding USMCA goods, the effective rate is only 5%. The economic data is showing strength, on the contrary, tariffs announcements for most countries have now been announced. Investors need to consider that tariffs are not just a tool to reduce trade deficit, it is also a geopolitical tool presently being used to shape alliances. The US wants to soften BRICS, China and Russian influence on the world stage. Key to note is that these tariffs are substantially lower than what was announced on April 2nd, 2025. The key question now remains, do participants buy the dip or ‘sell the fact’ is the current playbook? Market Implications Given the prior revisions in NFP data of -258K, July’s payroll came in at 73K, missing forecasts of 110K. What does this mean for markets? Markets are now pricing in 75% chance of a September rate cut. Prior revisions along with the current job market slowing down imply that risks to the downside are substantially increasing. Fed’s current policy is not just moderately restrictive but rather it may likely tip the US into a recession if Fed Funds rates remain elevated. The Chair asked to see more data, and here it is but I do wonder why they did not take this data into account for the July meeting. Surely, it would have been available to them. Another question to ask would be, is it due to defiance of rate cut calls by the US administration? Is the Fed already behind the curve? Fed’s dual mandate targets inflation and maximum employment. While inflation is sticky, the Fed may need to abandon their 2% mandate in favor of average inflation of 2.5% to 3%. A less restrictive policy will provide needed stimulus along with the fiscal stimulus provided via the BBB bill. This drastically changes, in our analysis, how investors position themselves heading into the remainder of the year. Markets (equities) may retrace slightly but the dip in our opinion will still be the play given weaker labor market data and increased rate cut bets. The bad news here means that the Fed has the data it wants to see to start cutting. Market pricing in 2 cuts seems to be the way forward for now.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
Tariffs, Trade Deals, & Central Bank Watch: Key Week in MarketsCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! COMEX:GC1! CME_MINI:MES1! NYMEX:CL1! This is a significant week in terms of macroeconomic headlines, key data releases, central bank decisions, and major trade policy developments. We get numbers for growth, inflation and decision and insights into monetary policy. Combining this with ongoing trade policy developments, we have a key week which may shape how the rest of the year unfolds. Below is a consolidated summary of the latest trade negotiations, scheduled economic releases, and policy outlooks. US - EU Trade Deal: • US–EU Tariffs: The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, including cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, but retain a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium with a new quota system. • Exemptions: Zero-for-zero tariffs agreed for agriculture, aircraft parts, and chemicals; aircraft exports are temporarily exempt. • EU Commitments: The EU will invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion in US energy, mainly LNG. • Agriculture: The EU will lower tariffs on many US agricultural goods, though not comprehensively. • Political Reactions: EU leaders are mixed, Germany and the Netherlands praised the deal, France called it unbalanced, and Hungary viewed it unfavorably. • The deal is not final until it is ratified by all EU national parliaments and the EU Parliament. China Talks: US and China expected to extend their trade truce by 90 days. US-China meeting expected in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday. Trump to freeze export controls to secure a deal. A group of US executives will visit China for trade discussions, organized by the US-China Business Council. South Korea Trade Talks: Korea proposes a shipbuilding partnership with the US and is preparing a trade package. UK–US Relations: PM Starmer and Trump to meet in Scotland to discuss the UK–US trade deal implementation, Middle East ceasefire, and pressure on Russia. Thus far, the US has announced trade deals with the UK, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Japan and The EU. Trade delegations are working to finalize deals with China, Mexico, Canada Key Economic Data Releases: Monday: Treasury refunding financing estimates. Supply: 2-Year and 5-Year Note Auction, 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction Tuesday: US Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories Advance, CB Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Job Opening (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Australian CPI Q2 Supply: 7-Year Note Auction Wednesday: German GDP Q2, EUR GDP Q2, US ADP Non-farm Employment, US GDP Q2, Crude Oil Inventories, Chinese Manufacturing PMI Canada: BoC Interest Rate Decision, Rate Statement, Monterey Policy Report, BoC Press Conference US: Fed Interest Rate Decision,FOMC Statement, Fed Press Conference. Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement Thursday: EU Unemployment (Jun), US PCE & Core PCE Price Index (Jun) Japan: BoJ Press Conference Friday: EU CPI, US NFP, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Michigan 1-Year & 5-Year Inflation Expectations. It is also a busy earnings week. See here for a complete earnings schedule . Markets are interpreting trade deals as positive news thus far. The dollar is strengthening. As we previously mentioned, we anticipate no rate cuts this year as economic data proves to be resilient and inflation largely under control. WSJ also posted an article stating that most tariffs costs are being absorbed by companies due to weaker pricing power. We previously wrote about this on our blog: “ In our analysis, the inflation impact of tariffs may not show up until Q4 2025 or early 2026, as tariff threats are mostly used as a lever to negotiate deals. While effective tariff rates have increased, as Trump reshapes how tariffs are viewed, cost pass-through to consumers will be limited in Q3 2025, as companies’ front-loaded inventory helps mitigate the risks of increased tariff exposure. So, what we have is an interesting development shaping up where, while inflation may rise and remain sticky, it is yet to be seen whether slowing consumer spending will weaken enough to the point where companies must start offering discounts, which would nullify the tariff risk to the end consumer and result in companies absorbing all tariffs. This scenario will see reduced earnings margins leading into the last quarter and early 2026. However, it will materially reduce risks of higher inflation.” In our view, the US dollar has a higher probability to rally in the short-term i.e., Q3 as markets re-align FX rate differentials. Bond yields stabilize, Equities continue pushing higher, while Gold retraces as previously mentioned. This in our view, is what investors and participants refer to as the Goldilocks scenario. If this plays out as expected we anticipate continued strength with AI, tech, energy and defense sectors outperforming into mid- 2026. Institutional View: Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley also sees no rate cuts in 2025, despite market pricing for two 25 bps cuts. They forecast more aggressive cuts in 2026 due to: • Tariff-related inflation emerging before labor market deterioration • Slowing US growth, as fiscal support fades • Impact of tighter immigration policy and global trade realignment That said, MS continues to cite longer-term risks to the dollar, including: • Twin deficits (fiscal + current account) • Ongoing debate around USD’s safe haven status • USD hedging activity picking up by international investors • Strained credibility of the Fed due to tension between Fed Chair and the US Administration How Fed policy evolves in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 will depend heavily on the incoming Fed Chair nominee, who is expected to replace Jerome Powell in May 2026. This nomination could significantly influence future policy direction around growth and inflation targets.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
USD/CHF Update: Missed the Last Short? Grab the New Trigger!Yo traders and market lovers, it’s Skeptic from Skeptic Lab! Here’s a quick USD/CHF update: my last short trigger after the support break gave us a 50-pip drop . With a solid stop loss, you’re likely sitting on a 2:1 R/R; risk-takers might even be at 5:1. I’m breaking down a fresh trigger in this video—don’t miss it! Drop your thoughts or coin requests in the comments, give it a boost if it helped , and don’t miss my educational post coming tonight on Skeptic Lab’s TradingView page with lessons from my first 100 trades—it’s gonna be fire. Catch you tonight! 😎
Short
by SkepticLab
1
Learn the 3 TYPES of MARKET ANALYSIS in Gold Forex Trading In the today's post, we will discuss 3 types of analysis of a financial market. 🛠1 - Technical Analysis Technical analysis focuses on p rice action, key levels, technical indicators and technical tools for the assessment of a market sentiment. Pure technician thoroughly believes that the price chart reflects all the news, all the actions of big and small players. With a proper application of technical strategies, technical analysts make predictions and identify trading opportunities. In the example above, the trader applies price action patterns, candlestick analysis, key levels and 2 technical indicators to make a prediction that the market will drop to a key horizontal support from a solid horizontal resistance. 📰2 - Fundamental Analysis Fundamental analysts assess the key factors and related data that drive the value of an asset. These factors are diverse: it can be geopolitical events, macro and micro economic news, financial statements, etc. Fundamental traders usually make trading decision and forecasts, relying on fundamental data alone and completely neglecting a chart analysis. Price action on Gold on a daily time frame could be easily predicted, applying a fundamental analysis. A bearish trend was driven by FED Interest Rates tightening program, while a strong bullish rally initiated after escalation of Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 📊🔬 3 - Combination of Technical and Fundamental Analysis Such traders combine the principles of both Technical and Fundamental approaches. When they are looking for trading opportunities, they analyze the price chart and make predictions accordingly. Then, they analyze the current related fundamentals and compare the technical and fundamental biases. If the outlooks match , one opens a trading position. In the example above, Gold reached a solid horizontal daily support. Testing the underlined structure, the price formed a falling wedge pattern and a double bottom, breaking both a horizontal neckline and a resistance of the wedge. These were 2 significant bullish technical confirmation. At the same time, the escalation of Israeli-Palestinian conflict left a very bullish fundamental confirmation. It is an endless debate which method is better. Each has its own pros and cons. I strongly believe that one can make money mastering any of those. Just choose the method that you prefer, study it, practice and one day you will make it. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
2
Crude Oil Trade Idea: Intraday mechanicsNYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! Bigger Picture: Traders should note that news headlines do not always drive the price action. More often, news outlets look for narrative to align with the price action. Previously, it was about the supply glut and worsening demand due to an uncertain outlook. Now the latest news flow is about Aramco OSP rising, OPEC+ adding another 548K bpd in August — higher than anticipated 411K — of the wounding of involuntary cuts. News outlets now view this as signs of demand growth and low inventories. What has the market done? Market has consolidated, building acceptance around microComposite Volume Point of Control at 65.50 (mcVPOC). Market then broke out of this balance. What is it trying to do? Market is building value higher; 2-day mcVPOC is at 68.29. How good of a job is it doing? Market is holding support and has tested resistance multiple times. It has also held support. What is more likely to happen from here? Further movement higher as long as it holds above support and yearly open confluence in the short term. Key Levels: • Resistance zone: 68.95 - 68.85 • pHi: 68.87 • 2-day VPOC: 68.29 • pSettlement: 68.38 • yOpen: 67.65 • Support zone: 67.70 - 67.50 • pLow: 67.89 Primary Scenario: Crude oil pit session begins with open auction in yesterday’s range. Prices move lower to test prior day's low, 2-day balance support in confluence with yearly open. Prices push back higher towards yesterday's settlement and 2-day Volume Point of Control (VPOC) at 68.33. Secondary Scenario: Crude oil pit session begins with open auction in yesterday’s range. Market consolidates and chops around pSettlement and 2-day VPOC. Market takes out overnight high, fails to go further higher, and reverts lower. Settles below overnight low, however staying above prior low to continue one-time framing higher for the regular trading hours (RTH).
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Weekly Market Outlook: E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures NQCME_MINI:NQ1! It’s a quiet week for US economic news. However, the RBA and RBNZ are scheduled to announce interest rate decisions. As has been the theme this year, markets remain highly sensitive to headline news and associated risks. US President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law at the White House. Treasury Secretary Bessent is currently giving an interview on CNBC as we write this outlook. Explanation of the near-term impact of Trump’s BBB Act, tariffs, and trade deals will be key to monitor, as this may be fuel for further movement. The US is set to announce more trade deals in the next 48 hours, while trading partners who did not reach a deal will revert to April 2nd tariff levels, with the tariffs to take effect on August 1st. As many as 100 smaller countries will get a set tariff rate. How does this all translate into price action and expectations for the market? NQ and ES are currently trading near all-time highs. RTY has potential upside as it plays catch-up. With the BBB Act signed into law, many of the investment banks anticipate a near-term positive impact on GDP. In NQ, we are looking at the following scenarios: Key LIS zone: 22860.50 – 22825.50 Support Zone: 22600 – 22582.25 Key Support Zone: 22000 – 22050 Scenario 1: Hold above key LIS In this scenario, we expect new ATHs and continuing price discovery higher. Scenario 2: Hold below key LIS In this scenario, we expect the price to re-test the support zone at 22600 – 22582.25 and consolidate to build value higher. A break below support may lead to further short opportunities to retest the 22000 level.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
9 Essential TIPS For Newbie Traders (Learn from my Mistakes!) In the today's article, I will reveal trading secrets I wish I knew when I started trading. 1️⃣ Forget about becoming a pro quickly Most of the traders believe, that you can learn how to trade easily and that it takes a very short period of time in order to master a profitable trading strategy. The truth is, however, that trading is a long journey. I spent more than 3 years, trying different strategies and looking for a profitable technique to trade. Once I found that, it took more than a year to polish a trading strategy and to learn how to apply that properly. Be prepared to spend YEARS before you find a way to trade profitably. 2️⃣ Focus on One Strategy While you are learning how to trade you will try different techniques, tools and strategies. And the thing is that newbies are trying multiple things simultaneously. The more strategies you try at once, the more setups you have on your chart. The more setups you have on your chart, the more complex and difficult is your trading. Remember that in this game, your attention is the key. You should meticulously study each and every trading setup. For that reason, I highly recommend you to focus on one strategy, one approach, one technique. Test it, try it and look for a new one only when you realize that it doesn't work. Here is the example how the same price chart can provide absolutely different trading opportunities depending on a trading strategy. Price action pattern trader would recognize a lot of a patterns, while indicator based trader could spot absolutely different bullish and bearish signals. Now, try to imagine how hard it would be to follow both strategies simultaneously. 3️⃣ Start with small capital that you can afford to lose You will lose your first trading deposit and, probably, the second one and potentially the third one as well. Losses are the only way to learn real trading. While you are on a demo account, you feel like a king, but once you start risking your savings, the perspective completely changes . For that reason, make sure that you trade with an account that you can afford to lose. The fact of blowing such an account should be unpleasant, but that should not affect your daily life. 4️⃣ Use stop loss I am doing trading coaching for more than 4 years. What pisses me off is that the main reason of the substantial losses of my mentees is the absence of stop loss. Why can it be if naturally everyone: from your broker to Instagram trading gurus repeat that day after day. Set stop loss, know in advance how much you risk per trade, and know the exact level on a price chart where you become wrong. Imagine what could be your loss, if you shorted USDJPY and hold the trade while the market kept going against you. 5️⃣ Forget about getting rich quick That is the iconic fallacy. I believe that around 90% of people who come in this game want to get rich quick , want easy money. And no surprise, when I share a trading setup in my free telegram channel, and it loses I receive dozens of messages that I am a scammer. People truly believe that professional trading implies 100% win rate and quick and easy money. The truth is, traders, that trading is a very tough game. And with a good trading strategy, you have just a little statistical edge that will give you the profits that would slightly overcome your losses. 6️⃣ Train your eyes Professional trading implies pattern recognition: it can be some technical indicators pattern, the price action or candlestick formation, etc. Your main goal as a trader is to learn to identify these patterns. Pattern recognition is a hard skill to acquire. You should spend dozens of hours in front of the screen in order to train your eyes to identify certain patterns. Here is how many patterns you would spot on GBPUSD chart, paying close attention. 7️⃣ Track and analyze your trades Study all the trades that you take, especially the losing ones. Look for mistakes, look for the reasons why a certain setup played out and why a certain one didn't. Journal your trades and make notes. 8️⃣ Don't use technical indicators Newbies believe that technical indicators should do the work for them. They are constantly looking for one or a bunch that will accurately show where the market will go. However, I always say to my mentees that technical indicators make the chart messy and distract. If you just started trading, focus on a naked chart, learn to analyze the market trend, key levels, classic price action patterns. Learn to make accurate predictions relying on a price chart alone. Only then add some technical indicators on your chart. They won't do the work for you, but will help you to slightly increase the accuracy of a certain setup. Above is the classic chart of a newbie trader. A lot of indicators and a complete mess The same chart would look much better without technical indicators. 9️⃣ Find a Mentor There are hundreds of trading mentors on Instagram, YouTube, TradingView. Find the one with a trading style that you like. Follow him, learn from his trading experience, listen to his trading recommendations. 11 years ago I found a guy on YouTube, his name was Jason. I really liked his free teachings, and they were meaningful to me. I decided to purchase his premium coaching program. It was 200$ monthly - a huge amount of money for me at that time. However, with his knowledge I saved a lot, I learned a lot of profitable techniques and tricks that helped me to become a professional forex trader. Of course, this list could be much bigger. The more I think about different subjects in trading, the more important tips come to my mind. However, I believe that the tips above are essential and I truly wish I knew all that before I started. I hope that info will help you in your trading journey! Good luck to you. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
12
Crude Oil Weekly OutlookNYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! With Nasdaq futures hitting all-time highs, our attention now turns to Crude Oil, which has seen a sharp pullback over the past week. All-time highs in equity indices present a unique challenge: There are no historical reference points—no prior price or volume data to lean against. Traders typically turn to tools like Fibonacci extensions, measured moves, or rely on market-generated information and emerging intraday levels before making decisions. What Has the Market Done? Crude Oil Futures (CL) posted a record drop last week, falling sharply from a Sunday open high of $78.40 to a Monday close low of $64.38—a $14.02 decline. This sharp sell-off followed developments suggesting a potential Iran–Israel ceasefire and the end of a two-week conflict, prompting markets to rapidly unwind the geopolitical risk premium. What is it trying to do? CL Futures have since consolidated around the 2025 mid-range. The market appears to be in a balancing phase, digesting the removal of war-related premiums and recalibrating based on fundamentals. How Good of a Job Is It Doing? Having effectively priced out war risk, the market is now refocusing on fundamentals. The global demand outlook is improving, driven in part by progress in trade deals. OPEC’s June Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) forecasts global oil demand growth of 1.3 mb/d for 2025. This transition from headline risk to fundamental drivers indicates market maturity and resilience, albeit within a still-volatile regime. What Is More Likely to Happen From Here? Today marks the final trading day of the month, and seasonal demand will become increasingly relevant. Summer weather and travel activity are expected to drive demand for jet fuel and gasoline. These seasonal tailwinds, if sustained, could help stabilize price action around key technical zones. Key Levels: yOpen: 67.65 pHi: 66.09 pIB Hi: 66 2025 mid-range: 65.39 pLow: 64.80 Overnight Low: 64.55 Naked VPOC: 64.50 Scenario 1: Continued Consolidation (Balance Holds) Crude oil maintains range-bound behavior. Strategy: “Outside-in” trading—fade moves at range extremes until new directional information emerges. Scenario 2: Break from Balance If directional conviction builds, price could break the current consolidation. Upside target: Yearly open near $67.65. Downside risk: March 2025 low if $64.40 fails. All intraday levels noted above should be monitored for structure and participation.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Risk and Probability in Trading — Why Risk Assessment MattersRisk and Probability in Trading — Why Risk Assessment Matters More Than Chasing the “Holy Grail” In trading, most participants and analysts are focused on finding the so-called “Holy Grail” — the perfect entry point where the price moves in the desired direction and yields profit. However, few actually assess the risks involved, as if success is possible without factoring them in. Market reviews are often filled with levels, forecasts, and price directions, but rarely include probability estimates or potential losses. In my view, the real Holy Grail isn't a guaranteed profitable entry, but a scenario where the market offers a position with minimal risk relative to historical context. To identify such setups, we need a risk scale based on historical data — how favorable the current risk-to-reward ratio is compared to the past. It’s also crucial to understand that no one can predict price direction with certainty. The key to opening a position is not hope, but evaluating all possible scenarios — upward, downward, or sideways — and knowing the outcome in each case. Risk management is more than just placing a stop-loss; it’s a structured approach that should be central to any trading strategy. What Are Minimal Risks? “Minimal risk” is a relative concept — it only makes sense when measured against a defined scale. Building such a scale requires historical statistics: what were the maximum and minimum losses and profits for similar positions in the past? Profit-to-Loss Ratio The idea behind the search for the “Holy Grail” is to find moments when the market offers the best possible profit-to-risk ratio. For example, if the current ratio is 10, and historically it has ranged from 0 (low risk) to 100 (high risk), then 10 may be a good entry point. If the ratio approaches 80–90, it signals that the position is extremely risky. Why Are Probability and Risk Assessment Important? Market reviews often talk about resistance levels, volatility, and price direction — but rarely address the risks of different scenarios. No expert can predict market movements with certainty — if they could, they’d be billionaires. Opening positions without accounting for risks and scenario probabilities is extremely dangerous. How to Factor in Risks When Entering a Position The key question is: what will the profit-to-loss ratio be after entering a position, depending on whether the price goes up, down, or stays flat? It’s important to understand the consequences of each case and make decisions based on risk assessment. Risk Management Must Account for the Inability to React Instantly Conventional tools like stop-losses and limit orders often fail to protect capital effectively during sudden price spikes. These tools are particularly vulnerable when market makers or high-frequency algorithms trigger stop levels en masse. This highlights the need for more resilient risk management instruments — ones that can respond to volatility instantly and automatically. Options are one such tool, capable of limiting losses regardless of market dynamics. Without robust risk management, long-term profitability becomes statistically unlikely. Sooner or later, the market will present a scenario that can wipe out your capital — unless you’re properly protected. Important note: this is not an endorsement of options or any specific broker. It’s simply a conclusion based on the logic of building effective capital protection. If a broker only provides access to linear instruments (futures, spot, stocks) without the ability to hedge, it will inevitably lead to capital erosion — even for systematic traders. And if this article gets more than 100 rockets, I’ll continue sharing specific examples of low-risk trading assessments.
SP:SPX
by wien6000796
1
Crude Oil Prices Rocketing amid geopolitical risks NYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! NYMEX:BZ1! Macro: Geopolitical tensions remain high and markets are now likely to price in our scenario discussing ongoing air and missile war, given one-off intervention from the US thus far. According to Reuters, the U.S. now assesses that Iranian retaliation could occur within the next two days.What happens next is anybody’s guess but as traders, it is important to navigate these uncertainties with scenario planning and/or reduce risk to account for increased volatility. We also get Services and Manufacturing PMI data today and PCE Price Index on Friday. Chair Powell is set to testify on Tuesday 9am CT. Key levels: Jan 2025 High: 76.57 2025 High: 78.40 2025 CVAH(Composite Value Area High): 75.68 Key LIS zone: 73.50-73.15 We anticipate the following scenarios in crude oil: Scenario 1: Prices remain elevated as tensions remain high, despite limited retaliation, however, the situation overall now escalated beyond return to diplomacy. Scenario 2: Any push towards de-escalation, unlikely in our analysis, but given the headline risk, crude prices may remain volatile and come off the highs. Given our key LIS (Line in Sand) zone above, we favor longs above this and shorts below this zone.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
FED Day: NQ Futures planCME_MINI:NQ1! Today is FOMC day; however, there is a larger geopolitical risk looming, along with the trade war and tariffs situation unfolding. Recently, we have noted inflation moving lower, although it is not yet at the FED’s 2% target. Retail sales fell sharply last month. Tariffs have not yet resulted in inflation so far, partly due to the 90-day pause, and with possible extensions, some deals agreed upon, and a framework for others in place, tariff uncertainty has considerably reduced. On the contrary, lower energy prices that supported lower inflation have risen due to ongoing geopolitical issues. Risks remain high for elevated energy prices even if supply and sea routes remain unharmed. In our view, this is due to the fragility of the situation and what it would take to turn the ongoing war into the worst possible outcome. The FED releases their Summary of Economic Projections. Key data points will be inflation and growth projections, along with interest rate projections and any talks about neutral rates and expected cuts, given the bleak global outlook and growth. The FED is otherwise expected to hold rates steady in this meeting. Given this, and what Chair Powell says in the FOMC press conference, their commitment towards driving inflation lower versus maximum employment, risks on the growth and employment side have started to worsen. If rate cut bets are moved forward or if markets price in more rate cuts than currently priced in, we may see equity index futures make further gains. NQ futures are coiling; the yearly VPOC has shifted higher, as we explained in our previous analysis. Today’s meeting may be key for further fuel higher or lower, depending on how it pans out. Market participants are in a wait and see mode. Markets are accepting higher prices and break of balance is key to determine the direction price may be headed in. Until otherwise proven, markets are range bound and mean reverting from June Composite Volume Profile towards monthly VWAP and VPOC.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
Weekly Market Outlook: FOMC, Trade Deals and GeopoliticsIt is a holiday-shortened week, with the majority of markets halting early on Thursday, June 19, 2025, in observance of Juneteenth. See here for holiday trading schedule Key Themes to Monitor This Week Geopolitical Risks Any outside intervention in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict will likely be seen as a risk-off event by market participants. Despite Friday’s sell-off, markets shrugged off during the Sunday open and overnight sessions. There are potential risks to trade routes and energy infrastructure, although disruptions seem unlikely at the moment. Amena Bakr at Kpler noted that, so far, there are no signs of disruptions in oil loadings from Iran. Without a supply outage, there is no pressing need for additional barrels to be brought onto the market. Trade War and Trade Deals There have been recent developments with the U.S. reaching key trade deal milestones with several countries. The baseline scenario remains optimistic, with expectations for an extension in negotiations and potential reciprocal tariffs for countries failing to reach agreements. FED Week This is a key week for U.S. monetary policy, with the FOMC decision, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and Chair Powell’s press conference scheduled. Traders will be closely watching how the Fed’s inflation and growth expectations have evolved, as reflected in the SEP. All eyes will be on the dot plot to note how interest rate expectations have evolved since last quarter. Of note: Will President Trump’s continued calls for rate cuts influence Chair Powell’s tone or guidance? Expectations for the Week Ahead NQ futures have continued one-time framing higher, consistently creating higher lows since the week of April 21, 2025. A strong support zone exists below, anchored at the yearly Volume Point of Control (VPOC) and the Anchored VWAP from May 11, 2025, when markets gapped higher. Key Levels to Watch • yVAH: 22,690.50 • R2: 22,510 • R1 / Previous Week High: 22,322.50 • May 11 AVWAP: 21,672.25 • yVPOC: 21,660 Scenario 1: Market Grinds Higher but Stays Cautious Despite several looming risk factors, the market could continue to grind higher. In this scenario, we anticipate a test above the prior week's high, followed by a potential pullback into last week’s range. Example Trade Idea 1 • Entry: 22,000 • Stop: 21,930 • Target: 22,322 • Risk: 70 pts • Reward: 322 pts • Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.6R Scenario 2: Pullback to Support, Range-Bound Consolidation If the market pulls back, we expect the yearly VPOC and AVWAP from May 11 to act as key support levels. In this case, price action may remain range-bound within the previous week’s range, forming an inside week. Example Trade Idea 2 • Entry: 21,672 • Stop: 21,600 • Target: 22,000 • Risk: 72 pts • Reward: 328 pts • Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.6R ________________________________________ Glossary • VPOC: Volume Point of Control • VA: Value Area • VAL: Value Area Low • VAH: Value Area High • VP: Volume Profile • AVP: Anchored Volume Profile • Y: Yearly • pWk: Previous Week
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
5
Mid-Week Outlook Update: US CPI- Trade TalksCPI day today. Scheduled to be released at 7:30 AM CT. CME:6E1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:MES1! COMEX:GC1! CBOT:ZN1! ES futures edged slightly higher after positive commentary from US-China trade talks. The delegations from both sides agreed on a framework to move forward with negotiations. It is important to note that Trade War 1.0 took about two years to formalize and finalize. However, given the previous experience and the current agreement on the framework, our opinion (which is not the consensus) is that the trade deal between China and the US may be closer than what most analysts and investors might otherwise predict. Like any negotiations, China and the US have previously discussed these difficult issues and have found a way to resolve them. Although the concerns have shifted towards niche sectors, we still view baseline tariffs with some sectors seeing increased tariffs as likely. TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) acronym traders will see a tougher stance from Trump to resolve the overarching trade deficit issue with China, particularly the dumping of Chinese goods. AI, defense technology, chips, and rare earth minerals are at the center of these discussions. There will be targeted controls on exports of chips from the US and exports of rare earth minerals on the Chinese side, despite the current framework and deals agreed. In our view, these controls will be phased out until agreements are finalized, to maintain leverage and show TACO acronym backers that Trump is not “chickening out,” but rather maintaining a strong stance while negotiating trade deals with China and other countries. In our analysis, despite positive headlines, the overhanging uncertainty has not dissipated. In fact, there is clarity that President Trump is willing to take the difficult road to negotiate from an apparent position of strength. Would this result in extension of trade deadlines or temporary increase in tariffs followed by an extension of deadlines? This remains to be seen! If May CPI comes in lower than expectations, this will be a nudge in the direction that tariffs are not translating into higher inflation. We may see a rally in index futures. On the contrary, any increase in CPI above the previous 2.3% YoY increase will be seen as tariff-induced inflation. In our analysis, given lower energy prices, rent inflation stabilizing at levels last seen in late 2021, and services inflation in the US trending lower from the peak in January 2023, we are seeing embedded inflation in the prior two months and this may remain sticky in today’s release. However, any stability with lower energy prices seen in the prior month will point to a lower inflation print overall. Comment with your favorite trade idea from our past trade ideas and what you would like to see more of.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by EdgeClear
ES Futures-Weekly OutlookCME_MINI:ES1! Fundamentals and Economic Calendar Data Recap: • Friday: 06/06/2025 o US Non-Farm Payrolls (May) 139k vs. Exp. 130k (Prev. 177k, Rev. 147k) o US Unemployment Rate (May) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%) o US Average Earnings YY (May) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.8%, Rev. 3.9%) • Overnight Monday: 06/09/2025 o Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(May) 103.22B vs. Exp. 101.3B (Prev. 96.18B) o Chinese Exports YY (USD)(May) 4.8% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 8.1%) o Chinese Imports YY (USD)(May) -3.4% vs. Exp. -0.9% (Prev. -0.2%) o Chinese CPI MM (May) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.1%) o Chinese PPI YY (May) -3.3% vs. Exp. -3.2% (Prev. -2.7%) o Chinese CPI YY (May) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.1%) Looking ahead this week on the calendar, notable economic data releases are as follows: • Wednesday: 06/11/2025 o US CPI YoY (May) o US CPI MoM (May) o US 10 year Note Auction • Thursday: 06/12/2025 o US PPI MoM (May) o US PPI YoY (May) o US 30 year Bond Auction • Friday: 06/13/2025 o Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)P o Michigan 1-year and 5-year Inflation Expectations (Jun)P On the trade and tariff front, we have China-US trade talks continuing in the UK today. The Chinese Vice Premier is visiting the UK from June 8th-13th. There has been progress made which is visible in terms of China relaxing export controls on rare earth minerals and President Trump stating that they are very far advanced on the China deal ahead of high level talks in London today. The FED is in a blackout period until the FOMC meeting. Trade, tariffs, and geopolitical risks still need to be monitored. Technical: What has the market done? With NQ leading, ES has also reclaimed yearly open. It held above yearly open in the overnight session. What is it trying to do? Climb higher, overlapping bars and yearly VPOC shifting higher denote acceptance at higher prices. How good of a job is it doing? Overlapping bars, headline risks and leveraged positions also point towards potential for prices moving lower before resuming higher or remaining range bound. TACO acronym traders may be in for max pain. What is more likely to happen from here? Given the data above, we would iterate given our previous explanation that recent data including CPI, PPI, Trade imports, exports is skewed due to trade tensions and this being reflected in business and consumer behavior. FED is likely to remain on hold while it waits and averages out the impact on growth, inflation and labor market. Scenario 1: Push higher Prices continue to push higher, if CPI comes in lower than expected, this may prompt a short-term continuation higher. Scenario 2: Range bound Markets remain in wait and see mode this week having climbed above yearly open. Markets build value higher and we expect VPOC to shift higher too. Scenario 3: Sell-off A mix of factors could e.g., trade talks stalling, weaker than expected US 10 year and 30 year auctions could foreshadow cracks appearing in the bonds market. This may fuel a wider sell-off if yields climb back higher. Glossary: ES - emini-S&P 500 Futures NQ - emini-NASDAQ 100 Futures VPOC - Volume Point of Control: The most traded price by volume in a given range. Represents acceptance or consensus
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
ES Trade Idea and Upcoming NFP ReportCME_MINI:ES1! • What has the market done? ES futures are lagging compared to tech heavy index NQ futures. ES futures are still below yearly open. Yearly open has been a strong area of resistance since the rally of April 6th Lows in futures complex. • What is it trying to do? ES futures are in consolidation mode, building value higher. VPOC has shifted higher since the gap up from May 11th open. VPOC and 0.786 fib level provide a base for a continuation higher. • How good of a job is it doing? Markets seem to be slowing its rally. After such a strong rebound, participants are wary of any pull-backs. Although a strong trend higher, consolidation or a pullback is not illogical at these levels. • What is more likely to happen from here? o Scenario 1: Hold steady and NFP provides needed boost for markets to get across yearly open resistance and climb higher. o Scenario 2: A mixed NFP report may point towards further consolidation. Key level 5873 as support on move lower before reverting higher. o Scenario 3: A hawkish NFP report that signals higher for longer rates, may be interpreted by market participants as less monetary stimulus and dwindling rate cut bets for this year. We anticipate a sell-off towards 0.618 fib level in this scenario, moving to the lower edge of micro composite volume profile. In all the above scenarios, there is a clear LIS at yearly open. Other key levels are defined cleanly on the higher time frame. Important thing for traders to note here is to trade what you see and not what you think. Having an alignment between fundamentals and technicals is sound but the markets do what they do, and price moves where it should. Painting narrative to any move may sound fancy but it gets less important at intraday time frames in our opinion. Hence why we view all this considering auction markets and volume profile. Glossary: ES - emini-S&P 500 Futures NQ - emini-NASDAQ 100 Futures VPOC - Volume Point of Control: The most traded price by volume in a given range. Represents acceptance or consensus NFP - Non-Farm Payroll: Released by the US Department of Labor around the 1st Friday of every month. It reports on Unemployment, Productivity and other key metrics. Key economic release LIS - Line In the Sand: A key zone that might tip buyers or sellers to act to cover risk and might change the overall bias of our analysis
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear