MGNI: SETTING UP MY LONG ENTRYMGNI :
Despite the fact that I like the fundamentals of this company long term, the below analyses is purely based on technicals .
As you can see the chart does not look that great, with all moving averages pointing downward. And the market has not been nice recently with growth stocks .
However, I'm looking to buy a few stocks as a long term investment .
I usually try to simplify my analyses as much as possible, so I avoid the unnecessary noise.
By looking at the weekly chart I see an important zone that has played many times in the past. This zone is between 11.75 and 13 .
This is where I'll be looking for an entry or multiple entries.
I also see a small divergence between RSI and the price, supporting the fact that we could see a nice bounce (for shorter term traders).
That's it! Let me know if you have comments.
Trade safe!
TTD
PUBM: another bounce candidatePUBM :
Growth stock. Bounce candidate.
Why?
1. We retraced 78% of the move that started in October. This level is good to initiate a long trade because it allows you to place a stop loss not too far below the line.
2. Demark Sequential is on a 9 daily . (More details below on Demark indicators)
3. RSI is low and at a level where we have seen substantial bounces in the past.
Depending on how markets open, I will look for a long entry around the current level. Swing trade .
My initial target will be 30-32, then I'll reassess. The success of the trade will depend on how Nasdaq behaves so I'll be careful and monitor the indexes closely.
I also like the fundamentals of this company for long term so I might consider a long term investment as well.
Note:
DeMark Indicators are designed to anticipate turning points in the market.
A Buy Setup occurs when there are 9 consecutive closes less than the close four days earlier.
Trade safe!
Analysis Of The Trade DeskThe Trade Desk manages an advertising platform that allows advertisers to plan strategy, optimize and manage advertising campaigns depending on the channel and advertising format. Founded in 2009. Revenue of $301 million (Q3 2021). Capitalization of $46.9 billion.
The online advertising market is growing very briskly and already accounts for almost half of the entire advertising market: $107.5 billion out of $223 billion dollars. The "mobile" part of online advertising is actively growing. According to the annual report, 79% of advertisers' spending on The Trade Desk platform is on mobile and other digital channels of communication with consumers.
Advertisers are under increasing pressure due to the movement of viewers from linear and cable TV to subscription platforms. Therefore, the target audience of The Trade Desk is advertising agencies and service providers for advertisers. The platform provides access to 87 million households, attracting a more targeted focus on consumers, and allows you to better measure the effectiveness of advertising to increase the profitability of each dollar spent.
AVOD — (advertising-based video on demand, advertising on streaming services) is one of the fastest growing areas in the Trade Desk.
For example, there is Paramount + streaming TV and HBO Max, these companies have tariffs with advertising. If you want to launch your advertising on these services, you can do it through a single interface on the Trade Desk, and then see where the result will be better.
The Trade Desk is very popular with customers, according to the latest data, customer retention is at the level of 95% and this indicator has been held for more than 7 years.
The United States accounted for 87% of advertising expenses, and the international - 13%. In the end, it is expected that about 70% of the expenses will be carried out outside the country. For this reason, the company is increasingly investing in international development to serve the global customer base of advertisers.
One of the new markets in the Asia-Pacific region, to which the company is now paying special attention, is India. Trade Desk opened an office in India in June, realizing the potential of this country. In the latest quarterly report, management stated that the digital advertising market in India is expected to exceed $7 billion by 2024 — 10 times the values of 2015.
Revenue increases at a high rate from year to year.
Unlike many other startups, $TTD demonstrates good revenue growth and profitability. For the last 5 years, the company has been operating without losses, profits are growing. Sales are projected to grow by 28.2% by the end of 2022.
According to the results of the third quarter of 2021
• * Revenue of $301 million (+39%);
* With/With sales of $53.4 million (+19%);
* EBITDA of $80 million (+88%);
* Net profit of $59.3 million (+44%).
The Trade Desk methodically builds a competitive advantage: the more sites are connected, the more convenient it is for advertisers to work with it and there are more advertisers, and the more advertisers, the more new sites are connected and the more difficult it will be for competitors to take market share.
Wall Street analysts view Trade Desk shares moderately positively and give a consensus forecast of "Hold". The average target price is $96 (-2%).
A deal to break the $99 resistance level (the level is formed by a trend break).
1) On the premarket, the price has reached the level
2) Accumulation near the level
3) The tool does not roll back
4) There is a large power reserve at the top
Long above $99.4 (limit entry)
Target 1: $101.9
Target 2: $110
11/21/21 TTDThe Trade Desk, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TTD )
Sector: Commercial Services (Advertising/Marketing Services)
Current Price: $107.79
Breakout price trigger: $112.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $105.80-$98.40
Price Target: $128.60-$130.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 48-51d
Contract of Interest: $TTD 1/21/22 125c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.20/contract
$TTD Trade Idea (High Alert)Watching $TTD over ATH. Also looking at a red to green or bounce. Had a ton of flow coming in on Cheddar Flow last week and is still very strong especially if we can get an aggressive market to the upside.
Entry: Red to Green, Bounce, or over 100.50
Targets: 102.50, 104, 108.50
Contract: 11/19 105c
Stop Loss: 15%
$TTD: Long term trend active...$TTD offers a tremendous trade opportunity here, after barely missing a long term support level which would have been a good long term entry to join the trend and reacting to it, I think it's worth it to pay up and jump into it ASAP. If price were to dip into support, you may add to your position, but it isn't worth depending on limit orders that might never get filled to enter.
As long as price holds over $75, the setup here is likely to pan out between now and August 2022.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan.
TTD breaking outTTD's break out looks like it has legs to retest previous highs. MACD is forming a bullish cross while the 50-DMA is beginning to curl up towards the 200-day. RSI is showing strength and 812% of the average call volume traded today for TTD showing lots of bullish bets on the continuation of this bullish trend.
TTD's price action is most likely related to the fact that SNAP reported minimal effects from AAPL's new update on their advertising/marketing, which should apply to The Trade Desk as well.
TTD reports earnings on August 12th which I expect to be a beat with the current estimate for EPS being $0.13. Earnings price action has been positive as of late. TTD should trade up into earnings and pop even further if there is a beat.
APPS - Ad tech sector with upgradesTTD MGNI PUBM all received upgrades from Analyst Berenberg. APPS is in same sector and had an upgrade about 2 weeks ago. It broke thru resistance and look for resistance at .786 Fib level. FOMC today, jpow mentioned tapering soon as November, but I see the stock market going up in the next 3 months.
I havent been actively trading lately, as I have not seen any great setups and option flow. Trade safe!
TTD.NAS_Range Breakout and Retracement Trade_LongENTRY: 88.97
SL: 78
TP: 97
- ADX>20
- RSI<50,RSI<70
- Daily RS +ve
- Daily FFI +ve
- Daily MACD -ve
- Weekly RS +ve
- Weekly FFI +ve
- Weekly MACD +ve
- Breakout of down trendline with volume on 24 Jun 2021.
- Breakout of down trendline and HVN with volume and gap up on 23 Jul 2021.
- Possible hidden buying on 9 Aug 2021.
- Today closed above previous day candle with higher volume and breakout of range.
Sunday Prep 7/25 - $TTD Like to see pullbacks hold some supportBig volume day with a nice big green candle. Technically it broke out over that 82 level, so now I would like to see pullbacks hold some support. You can see the dips on Friday held around 79.40s, which also is right at the 61.8% fib level. Thinking any early flush to that area on Monday can be watched to see if they support it. If they gap it up, you can always look to join trend, but keep in mind that if they gap the broader market up as well, I would be very hesitant to get long anything until we get a backfill of the gap and we see buyers show up.
TV chart link:
Fairy DustTo keep it simple, fair value or intrinsic value for a stock can be measured by calculating earnings with a reasonable long term growth rate.
Some tech stocks are currently enjoying extraordinary growth rates averaging around 40%. Some are even higher.
Tesla has an earnings growth rate for the current year of 99.6% and the PE ratio is 684.15 at the current price.
Fair value for the stock price on earth is currently $42.02 (or 136 DOGE)
Let's take a look at these popular names using the formula below:
Fair Value formula:
EPS = earnings per share
8.5 = time in years
G = long term growth rate
FV = EPS X (8.5 + 2G)
Then you adjust for corporate bond yields, the alternative, "safe" investment
Currently we could say they at around 4% yield
Final Value = FV * (4.4 / 0.04)
Below is a list of popular stocks with the current Fair Value assuming they can keep a long term earnings growth rate of 15% annually , which is still an impressive number compared to most companies. Long term it is virtually guaranteed that earnings will decline from current levels so it will be interesting to see this play out in the stock price.
In addition, included below is a chart of where fair value is and text of the current growth rate this year and the P/E ratio.
Data pulled from Yahoo Finance and TD Ameritrade API
Apple
Growth rate: 57.6%
PE ratio: 31.40
Adobe
Growth rate: 21.4%
PE ratio: 51.26
Amazon
Growth rate: 33.5%
PE ratio: 66.81
Facebook
Growth rate: 30%
PE ratio: 30.38
Google
Growth rate: 49%
PE ratio: 31.68
Microsoft
Growth rate: 34.9%
PE ratio: 37.78
Shopify
Growth rate: 11.8%
PE ratio: 114.8
Square
Growth rate: 78.6%
PE ratio: 395.75
Zoom
Growth rate: 40.1%
PE ratio: 134.18
The Trade Desk
Growth rate: -10.10%
PE ratio: 157.6
Nvidia
Growth rate: 58.3%
PE ratio: 97.12
PayPal
Growth rate: 21.9%
PE ratio: 66.13
Using this method the only growth stocks that have realistic upside are Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft.
TTD - 10/1 Stock split june 17thTTD - The company through self-service, cloud-based platform, ad buyers create, manage and optimize data-driven digital advertising. It has gone up 2,100% since ipo in 2016. Its number 1 in its sector and has P/B value at 25. Its a good buy / trade before the stock split, imo.
Exciting long term, Trouble short termPlease note this is only an idea, invest at your own risk.
The chart shows a confusing pattern after a huge drop.
If you are long term, I believe now to be a great price (575).
In the short term, I expect more volatility and possible lower price or fluctuation.
While it has recently gained an important support around 570, I am waiting for it to overcome the 600 resistance, and more importantly the 665 resistance, which would represent a change in structure.
I am much more confident to enter into it once it holds above 665.
Happy to get feedback on my idea.
Covering all the Plays made a month ago to about a week agoThis is a video I made to cover all the plays made about a month ago up until about two weeks ago. I cut off half way through and honestly I thought it didn't record any of it. So I am posting it now. and I will pick up where it left off probably tomorrow.
If these have helped you trade please like and follow.
by iCantw84it
05.26.2021