Could we see a bounce from here?Dow Jones (US30) is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the swing high resistance.
Pivot: 48,390.90
1st Support: 48,230.84
1st Resistance: 48,697.68
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Us30analysis
US30 H4 | Bearish Drop OffMomentum: Bullish
The price has reacted off the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance, and could drop to the 1st support.
Sell entry: 48,075.05
Pullback resistance
Stop loss: 48,478.00
Pullback resistance
Take profit: 47,497.34
Pullback suport
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Bullish bounce off?Dow Jones (US30) is falling towards the pivot, which is a pullback support and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 48,242.25
1st Support: 48,027.46
1st Resistance: 48,693.05
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Bullish momentum to extend?Dow Jones (US30) is falling towards the pivot, which is a pullback support and could rise to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 47,063.30
1st Support: 45,135.60
1st Resistance: 50,049.13
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
US30 Enters a Consolidation Phase After Strong ExpansionUS30 is currently transitioning into a pause following its recent impulsive move, with price action becoming more controlled on the 4H timeframe. This phase reflects a market that is reassessing momentum rather than aggressively extending in one direction. Participation appears more selective, suggesting traders are waiting for clearer macro cues before committing further. Such behaviour often precedes the next volatility expansion, making this a key phase to observe as the broader structure continues to develop.
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
US30 | ANALYSIS📊 US30 Update — Key Structure Levels Active
US30 is trading around an important structure zone where buyers have shown strength before. As long as price holds above support, bullish momentum remains valid, with potential continuation toward the next resistance area.
🔓 Entry: 48,395
❌ Stop Loss: 48,192
🎯 Target: 48,627
Price action around these levels will be crucial for confirmation.
Do you expect continuation or a short-term pullback from here? Drop your bias below 👇
Your like/support helps this idea reach more traders 🚀
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post reflects personal market analysis and is not financial advice.
Dow Jones Shows Neutrality After Reaching New HighsDespite the bullish movement the index experienced following the Federal Reserve’s decision in the United States, the beginning of this week has shown a renewed bearish move, with the last two sessions accumulating a decline of nearly 1%. This indicates that a new selling bias has started to emerge within the broader long-term uptrend. For now, the optimism driven by expectations of lower interest rates appears to be fading, and as we enter a period with fewer relevant economic data releases, the index may begin to show a phase of steady indecision as the market prepares for the end of the year. This environment could bring a period of neutrality in the Dow Jones price action over the coming trading sessions.
Long-Term Uptrend Holds
For several months, a broad upward trend has been sustained in the Dow Jones, progressively pushing the index toward the psychological zone of 50,000 points. So far, no significant bearish corrections have emerged that could threaten this structure, making it the most important technical element to monitor in the coming weeks.
However, in the short term, as the price has reached new highs, a constant zone of indecision has begun to appear, which may lead to short-term bearish corrections if buying pressure fails to remain strong.
RSI
Currently, the RSI remains consistently above the neutral 50 level, indicating that buying momentum continues to dominate the index’s short-term movements. However, it is important to note the emergence of lower highs in the RSI, while the Dow Jones price itself continues to register higher highs. This behavior suggests the formation of a bearish divergence, signaling a possible imbalance in momentum that could lead to minor bearish corrections in the next sessions.
MACD
The MACD histogram is gradually moving back toward the zero line, which suggests a scenario of balanced momentum in short-term moving averages. If this behavior continues, the Dow Jones price may enter a more prolonged phase of indecision, with less directional movement.
Key Levels to Watch
48,850 points – Main resistance:
The newest high, now acting as the most important resistance. Price movements that consistently break above this level would strengthen the bullish bias and could extend the current long-term uptrend.
48,051 points – Nearby barrier:
A short-term neutrality zone that may serve as support against potential bearish corrections.
47,156 points – Important support:
This level aligns with the 50-period simple moving average and represents the key support for bearish movements. If the price retraces back to this area, the dominant uptrend may begin to lose strength, potentially activating a period of neutrality and leading to a short-term sideways range.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
US30 Trade Set Up Dec 15 2025Price made a new ATH last week and has left a daily gap below which i will expect price to fill this week before continuing higher. So for now price is trading within a bearish 4h FVG, approaching 1h supply and has swept both Asia and London highs so i will wait and see if price makes internal 1m-5m CISD/IFVG to reverse down to Asia lows and PDL
US30: Is the Index Pausing Before the Next Expansion?US30 continues to trade within a broader constructive structure, with recent price action showing a clear pause after an aggressive upside sequence. Momentum has cooled without a full reversal, suggesting the market may be recalibrating rather than distributing before the next impulse.
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US30: Late-Cycle Pop or Pullback Setup?The 𝐃𝐨𝐰 is pressing fresh highs into a historically soft seasonal window with stretched momentum and limited follow-through. I’m initiating/adding to a daily timeframe short aiming for a retrace back into prior breakout territory. My baseline path is a drift lower toward 44,500–44,000 (T1) and then the broader demand band near 43,000–42,2500 (T2), where I’ll reassess.
This isn’t a “crash” call—just a tactical mean-reversion as macro tailwinds fade, breadth narrows and the first Fed cut shifts the narrative from “rates down” to “why they’re down.”
Technicals:
• Stretched swing: Price has stair-stepped higher with shallow pullbacks; we’re now extended above the 50/100-DMA stack with waning impulse on push days (smaller real bodies, upper wicks).
• Local resistance: Repeated stalls into the same supply shelf. I’m leaning into the most recent failed extension and fading the box.
Structure map:
• Entry: around/into the failed-break zone 46.4k area.
• Invalidation: daily close > recent spike highs around 47.7k-48.0k.
• Targets: T1 45,000–44,500 (prior ATH retest / micro-POC region); T2 44,000–43,000.
• Risk: 0.5–1.0R per add; scale in only on rejection prints or lower-highs.
Fundamentals:
1) The first Fed cut is not automatically bullish.
The Fed delivered a 25 bps cut in September and signaled more easing, which historically can coincide with late-cycle growth scares and choppier equity returns rather than a straight-line melt-up. The cut was framed around cooling activity and inflation progress. 
2) Growth data is mixed—manufacturing still weak.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in August (48.7)—below the 50 expansion line—signaling ongoing softness in goods demand. That is typically a headwind for the Dow’s cyclical mix. 
3) ES500 (S&P 500) breadth is narrow; concentration risk elevated.
Mega-caps continue to dominate performance and index leadership, while equal-weight underperforms and concentration risk stays high—conditions that historically increase pullback vulnerability. 
4) Valuations are rich versus history.
FactSet’s mid-summer forward 12-month P/E for the S&P 500 hovered well above 5- and 10-year averages (>22x vs. ~19x/17x), leaving less cushion if growth wobbles or margins compress. 
5) Sentiment & seasonality aren’t tailwinds.
September/early Q4 are seasonally tricky—historically the weakest stretch for US equities—just as the market tries to price the path of cuts vs. growth. 
6) Policy & trade headline risk.
Tariff timelines and “reciprocal” duties remain in play (with officials signaling Aug-1 implementation and additional measures possible), a rolling overhang for global cyclicals and exporters tied into the Dow complex. 
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
DOW/US30 - OVER BOUGHT Team, I hope you recall the trade last 3 days ago about OPPORTUNITY OF BEAUTIFUL CHART
Since then, it has been running up over 1400 points in 3 days.
Now I find myself in a good time to SHORT, with 3-4 confluences to make that decision.
1- 1400 points up in 3 days, (2 days up because of RATE cut)
2 - Daily chart indicates overbought
3 - NEW ATH
Therefore, we expect a small retracement.
SHORT range at 48787 - 48850 - STOP LOSS above 50050
Target 1 at 48715-48650
Target 2 at 48600-48550
Target 3 at 48412-48350
LETS GO
US30 Momentum Rebuild: Breakout Retest Signals Potential Upside📈 DJI30 / US30 – Dow Jones Industrial Average Trade Opportunity Guide
🏛️ Market Context
The index is showing strong accumulation pressure, with buyers stepping back in as volatility narrows. Momentum tools and trend metrics continue to lean toward the upside, creating a setup where disciplined layering becomes highly effective for precision entries.
🔥 Trade Plan – Bullish Strategy in Play
✅ Technical Confirmation
KIJUN MA accumulation indicates steady buy-side pressure building beneath price.
HULL Moving Average breakout completed with a clean pullback + retest, confirming trend continuation strength.
Market structure remains constructive with higher lows forming consistently.
🎯 Entry Plan (Layering Method Included)
Any price level can be used, but this plan uses Thief Layering Strategy for controlled scaling:
💠 Buy Limit Layers:
47,000
47,250
47,500
47,750
48,000
(Traders can add more layers depending on personal risk and capital allocation style.)
🛡️ Stop Loss (SL)
Thief SL → 46,750
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OGs): Please adjust according to personal strategy and risk. This SL is an example, not a fixed rule. Trade with your own management principles.
🎯 Target (TP)
Main Target → 49,500
The market is approaching major moving-average resistance + overbought zones + potential trap regions. It’s wise to secure profits as the index reaches upper supply levels.
Again, Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OGs): TP is flexible. Manage your profit bookings based on your personal approach.
🌍 Related Pairs to Watch & Correlations
1️⃣ SP:SPX / S&P 500
Often moves in high correlation with US30.
Strong bullish momentum here typically supports US30 upside.
Watch for divergence → if SPX stalls while US30 pushes, upside may weaken.
2️⃣ NASDAQ:NDX / NAS100 (Nasdaq 100)
Tracks tech sentiment, which influences overall US risk appetite.
If NAS100 shows weakness while Dow is rising, expect mixed flows → Dow may slow down but still hold structure.
3️⃣ TVC:VIX (Volatility Index)
Inverse correlation to US30.
Falling VIX = stronger risk-on behavior, supporting bullish Dow positions.
Sudden VIX spikes signal caution on existing long positions.
4️⃣ TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index)
Strong Dollar sometimes suppresses equity momentum.
If DXY drops, US30 tends to gain strength as liquidity flows to equities.
5️⃣ CBOT_MINI:YM1! (Dow Futures)
The closest real-time mirror of US30 price action.
Useful for re-entry timing during pullbacks and session gaps.
🧭 Final Notes
Stay disciplined with your own SL/TP logic, manage exposure through layered entries, and monitor correlation assets for confirmation. This is a flexible play designed for DAY & Swing traders who thrive in momentum-driven environments.
US30 Trade Set Up Dec 11 2025Price is making HH/HL so now in a bullish trend but it currently at a supply and approaching PDH so if it sweeps it i will look for internal IFVG/CISD to target Asia lows before continuing a bullish trend but if price closes above PDH price can go higher to BSL and higher supply






















