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USDCAD Breakout Watch: Bulls Eye 1.3920 After Retesting SupportUSDCAD is coiling for a potential breakout, with buyers defending the 1.3820–1.3840 support zone and eyeing higher levels. The chart shows repeated higher lows, and fundamentals are aligning in favor of the dollar as the Canadian side faces pressure from weaker data and oil volatility. The setup is building momentum for a push toward 1.3920 if the breakout materializes. Current Bias Bullish – USD strength and Canadian headwinds support upside continuation. Key Fundamental Drivers Federal Reserve: Slower pace of cuts compared to expectations keeps USD attractive. Bank of Canada: Market pricing leans heavily toward further easing after weak jobs data and slowing growth. Oil Prices: WTI struggles below $65, weighing on CAD’s commodity-linked appeal. Trade balance: Canada’s recent deficits add to pressure on CAD. Macro Context Interest rates: Fed cautious on cuts; BoC more dovish, widening policy divergence. Economic growth: Canadian economy showing contraction in GDP and weaker labor data, while US growth remains firmer. Commodity flows: Oil demand remains uncertain, keeping CAD on the defensive. Geopolitical: Trade tensions and US tariffs add to USD safe-haven appeal, further denting CAD sentiment. Primary Risk to the Trend A strong oil rebound or a surprisingly hawkish BoC stance could support CAD and limit upside in USDCAD. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada CPI and BoC decision – key for confirming further CAD weakness. US CPI and Fed communication – will guide whether USD keeps its bid. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USDCAD often acts as a lagger to broad USD moves (particularly following EURUSD and DXY). However, it can lead CAD crosses like CADJPY and AUDCAD when oil-driven moves accelerate. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3820, 1.3785 Resistance Levels: 1.3880, 1.3920 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3785 (below structural support) Take Profit (TP): 1.3920 (major resistance zone) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USDCAD is consolidating with buyers eyeing an upside breakout. The bias remains bullish, with SL at 1.3785 protecting against downside failure and TP at 1.3920 offering a clean upside target. The divergence between a cautious Fed and a dovish BoC, combined with oil weakness, tilts the balance in favor of USD strength. The key watchpoints are Canada’s CPI and BoC policy direction, which could either accelerate the breakout or disrupt the setup.
Long
by ultreosforex
USD/CAD) Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/CAD in the 4H timeframe. Here’s the behind the analysis: --- Key Technical Points: 1. FVG (Fair Value Gap): The yellow box around 1.3820–1.3830 is a fair value gap where price is expected to retrace before continuing upward. Acts as a short-term demand zone. 2. MSS (Market Structure Shift): The chart marks a bullish MSS, meaning structure has flipped from bearish to bullish. Confirms upside continuation bias. 3. EMA 200 (Dynamic Support): EMA 200 sits around 1.3797, below current price. Reinforces the bullish bias as long as price stays above it. 4. Target Point: Upside target is 1.3925, which aligns with previous highs / liquidity zone. Chart suggests accumulation → retrace → bullish expansion into that level. --- Trade Idea Summary: Bias: Bullish Scenario: 1. Price may retrace into the FVG zone (1.3820–1.3830). 2. Find support there and bounce. 3. Continue higher toward 1.3925 target point. Entry Idea: Buy near the FVG demand zone (with bullish confirmation). Target: 1.3925 Stop-Loss: Below the EMA / FVG (~1.3790). Mr SMC Trading point --- Conclusion: This setup favors buying dips into the FVG zone as long as price respects the EMA 200. The target is 1.3925, making this a bullish continuation play after the recent market structure shift. --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
2
USDCAD Double Top Signals a Potential BreakdownUSDCAD pair is testing a critical resistance area near 1.3830 after a strong rebound. But the price structure is beginning to flash signs of exhaustion. With repeated rejections and a clear double-top pattern forming, the setup favors a bearish move. If momentum turns, we could see a meaningful correction toward the 1.3730 support zone, with deeper downside risk into mid-September. Current Bias Bearish rejection at resistance, structure favors downside continuation. Key Fundamental Drivers Canada: Weak August jobs report (unemployment 7.1%, wages cooling) raised BoC cut expectations, pressuring CAD. But oil prices (Brent ~$65) limit the downside risk, giving CAD some commodity support. U.S.: Weaker jobs (+142k NFP, unemployment 4.3%) keeps Fed cuts on the table, capping USD upside. Core PCE sticky at 2.9%, but inflation trend is moderating. Macro Context Interest Rates: Fed expected to cut in coming months; BoC markets price ~90% chance of a September cut. Economic Growth: U.S. slowing but still resilient, Canada contracting (Q2 GDP −0.4% q/q). Commodities: Oil’s soft rebound provides CAD with some stability. Geopolitics: Trade tensions (U.S. tariffs, China-Russia bond coordination) keep USD supported as a defensive hedge. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp oil sell-off would weaken CAD and trigger USD/CAD upside. U.S. CPI surprise to the upside could reprice Fed expectations, boosting USD. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event U.S. CPI (this week): Will decide Fed cut timing. BoC September rate decision: High probability of a cut, market focus on forward guidance. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD is typically a lagger — following USD direction (via Fed expectations) and CAD flows (via oil). It often mirrors oil price action and diverges from USD/JPY, reflecting risk sentiment shifts. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3732, 1.3585 Resistance Levels: 1.3830, 1.3875 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3875 Take Profit (TP): 1.3732 (first), 1.3585 (extended) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is leaning bearish after failing to break cleanly above 1.3830. Fundamentals point to a tug-of-war between dovish BoC expectations and weaker U.S. data, but the chart structure favors downside into 1.3732 and potentially 1.3585. My stop loss sits above 1.3875 to protect against a breakout. Watch U.S. CPI as the key driver: a hotter print could revive USD strength, while a softer read could accelerate CAD gains. Oil’s stability remains a secondary but important factor for CAD resilience.
Short
by ultreosforex
1
USD/CAD – Bulls Eyeing a Bounce from Key Demand ZoneAfter an aggressive correction from the 1.3920 highs, USD/CAD has now landed on a heavy demand zone near 1.3720 – 1.3740. This area has proven to be a launchpad for rallies in recent weeks, and price is once again testing buyers’ conviction. With both technical structure and macro fundamentals in play, this zone could determine the next major swing. Current Bias Bullish bias as long as 1.3720 holds, with upside potential toward 1.3818 and 1.3920 supply. Key Fundamental Drivers USD: Supported by sticky inflation (Core PCE 2.9% y/y) and resilient consumer spending (+0.5% m/m). Fed rate cut expectations have softened, keeping the dollar supported. CAD: Weighed down by weaker Canadian GDP (Q2 annualized -1.6%, q/q -0.4%) and slowing momentum in domestic growth. Oil remains weak near $64, offering little support to the loonie. Macro Context Rates: The Fed remains cautious with cuts, while the BoC faces pressure from economic contraction. Interest rate divergence favors the USD. Growth Trends: US growth remains firmer compared to Canada’s slowdown. Commodities: Oil’s weakness is a drag on CAD, making the currency vulnerable. Geopolitics: Ongoing tariff disputes and Middle East energy risks keep USD demand steady as a safe haven, further weighing on CAD. Primary Risk to the Trend A deeper selloff in USD on unexpected Fed dovishness or a sharp rebound in oil prices (driven by geopolitical shocks or supply cuts) could strengthen CAD and invalidate the bullish setup. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event US ISM PMI & NFP (this week): Key drivers for Fed policy path. Canada Jobs Report (Friday): Critical for CAD sentiment after the weak GDP print. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD tends to lag oil and broader USD moves. It often follows the dollar’s momentum, while oil price shocks can lead moves on CAD. Currently, the pair is USD-led, making it more reactive to Fed data than Canadian domestic flows. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3720 – 1.3740 (demand zone), 1.3660. Resistance Levels: 1.3818 (mid-resistance), 1.3918 – 1.3925 (major supply). Stop Loss (SL): 1.3650 (below demand zone invalidation). Take Profit (TP): 1.3818 (first target), 1.3920 (extended target). Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is sitting at a key demand zone around 1.3720 – 1.3740, where buyers need to defend the trend. The bias remains bullish above this level, with upside targets at 1.3818 and 1.3920. A break below 1.3650 would invalidate the long setup and expose further downside. With US data in focus and CAD weighed down by weak GDP and soft oil prices, the pair is more likely to follow USD momentum in the near term. Traders should watch NFP and Canada’s jobs data closely, as these will dictate whether this bounce carries to new highs or fades into deeper consolidation.
Long
by ultreosforex
8
USDCAD BUYS🔎 Technical Breakdown Breakout Structure Price had been consolidating in a sideways range after a strong downtrend. Recently, price broke out of the consolidation zone to the upside, showing buyers stepping in. Current candles are forming higher lows → early trend reversal signals. Support Zone (Demand Area) Around 1.3730–1.3740, price rejected multiple times (wicks). This shows strong demand, making it a safe stop-loss zone. Candle Behavior Recent bullish candles have longer bodies and smaller wicks → momentum favors buyers. The last red candles got quickly engulfed by blue (bullish) candles → market bias shifted. Risk-to-Reward (RRR) SL around 1.3731 and TP1 at 1.3770 / TP2 1.3790 gives you nearly a 1:2 RRR, which is favorable. Market Context USDCAD often reacts strongly to oil price moves and USD strength. If USD is stable/strong, buying pressure supports this setup. Also, this looks like a retracement entry after a sell-off, catching the early reversal PS - STILL BEARISH IN DAILY TF
Long
by acefxtrades
USD/CAD: Inverse Head & Shoulders Playing OutHello guys. The chart is showing a clear inverse head & shoulders pattern, which often signals a potential bullish reversal. Price is now pushing above the neckline, suggesting momentum is shifting to the upside. As long as buyers hold this breakout, there’s room for continuation toward the 1.3853 and 1.3868 resistance levels. Key Levels: Support: 1.3720 (pattern invalidation if broken) Breakout Zone: 1.3800–1.3820 (neckline retest area) Targets: 1.3853 → 1.3868
Long
by melikatrader94
9
USD/CAD Bullish Bias Supported by COT Data and Seasonal Trends🗓 Monthly Chart Overview • Price Inefficiency Zone: There's a clear imbalance between 1.40165 and 1.41248, suggesting a potential magnet for price. A retracement to at least the 50% level of this inefficiency could be expected. • Bullish Structure: Price has formed a bullish order block and is currently retracing, which often precedes a continuation move upward. • This setup hints at accumulation before a bullish expansion. 📆 Weekly Chart Insights • Inefficiency Filled: Price has filled previous inefficiencies, showing healthy market structure. • Liquidity Behavior: We've seen price sweep lows, then begin sweeping highs, while respecting bullish blocks—a strong indication of a shift in directional intent. • This behavior supports the idea that USD/CAD is preparing for a bullish continuation. 📅 Daily Chart Momentum • Aggressive Breakout: After a period of consolidation, price broke out aggressively to the upside, confirming bullish momentum. • Structure: The daily chart maintains a bullish structure, reinforcing the higher timeframe bias. 💹 Commitment of Traders (COT) Data • USD Positioning: The U.S. Dollar is showing net buying interest, supporting strength. • CAD Positioning: The Canadian Dollar is net bearish on average when compared to last year’s data. • This divergence in sentiment adds confluence to a bullish USD/CAD bias. 📊 Seasonal Trends • Historically, USD/CAD tends to rise from August through November, with September, October, and especially November being the most bullish months. • This seasonal tendency aligns with the current technical and fundamental setup. 🏦 Macro Considerations • Interest Rates: Keep a close eye on central bank rate decisions and forward guidance, as they can significantly impact USD/CAD volatility and direction. 🔍 Summary USD/CAD shows strong bullish potential across monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes. Technical structure, COT data, and seasonal trends all point toward a continuation to the upside. A revisit to the inefficiency zone around 1.4060–1.4120 could be a key target in the coming months.
Long
by Wiiso
USD/CAD Breaks Triangle: Bullish Target in SightHello guys! USD/CAD has broken out of a clear triangle formation, signaling strong bullish momentum. The breakout above the top line of the triangle, supported by earlier bullish divergence, confirms that buyers are now in control. Triangle breakout confirmed Strong bullish impulse post-breakout Retest of the broken trendline expected Target: 1.38791 A clean retest of the breakout level could provide another entry opportunity before price reaches the target zone highlighted in blue.
Long
by melikatrader94
8
Trade deal thread could pump USDCAD?USDCAD as with the bounce off the monthly support level, current is a strong uptrend.4H perspective, price is trading above 10ema since the cross over of 20ema and 10ema price is pushing back to the upside. With trade deal thread, including upcoming GDP on CAD could pump this price back to the resistance ? As 10ema has not been tested since cross over, we may see the price to back to the upside with respecting the 10ema. Buying on EMA is a high probability trade setup.
Long
by ForexWizard01
USD/CAD Institutional Buy Zone – Thief Trading Alert!🔥 USD/CAD "LOONIE BANK HEIST" 🔥 – THIEF TRADING STYLE (BULLISH SNIPER PLAN) 💸 ATTENTION: Market Robbers & Profit Pirates! "Steal Like a Pro – Escape Before the Cops Arrive!" 🎯 MASTER TRADE PLAN (Based on Thief Trading Tactics): Entry Zone (Pullback Heist): 📌 Pullback-1: Market Maker Trap Zone (1.35400+) – Wait for retest! 📌 Pullback-2: Institutional Buy Zone (1.33500+) – Confirm bullish momentum! "Patience = Perfect Heist Timing. Don’t rush—ambush the trend!" 🎯 Profit Target: 1.38100 (or escape earlier if momentum fades). 🛑 Stop Loss (Escape Route): Nearest 4H Swing Low (wick/close) – Adjust based on risk & lot size! 🚨 SCALPERS’ WARNING: "Only snipe LONG! Big pockets? Strike now. Small stack? Join swing robbers & trail your SL!" 📉 WHY THIS HEIST? (Bullish Triggers): Technical + Fundamental alignment (COT, Macro, Sentiment). Overbought but institutional demand holding strong. "Bears are trapped—time to rob their stops!" ⚠️ CRITICAL ALERT: News = Volatility = Police Ambush! Avoid new trades during high-impact news. Trailing SL = Your Getaway Car! Lock profits before reversals. 💥 BOOST THIS HEIST! "Hit 👍, 🔔 Follow, and 🚀 Boost to fuel our next robbery! Let’s drain the banks together!" 🔮 NEXT HEIST COMING SOON… Stay tuned, partner! 🎭💰
by The-Thief
USDCAD BUYUSD/CAD returns below 1.3600, with YTD lows, at 1.3540 coming into view The US Dollar extends its decline for the fourth consecutive day, with the Canadian Dollar supported by a brighter market mood, as the trade deal between the US and Japan provided some certainty about the outlook of global trade and boosted hopes of more such deals. In the USD/CAD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Joshua Gibson suggests uncertainty and risk-off sentiment could strengthen the US Dollar (USD) early in 2025, while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is expected to weaken in the first quarter. However, CAD investors may reassess prospects as the year progresses, focusing on the Federal Reserve (Fed) - Bank of Canada (BoC) policy dynamics. From a technical point of view, USD/CAD could face a technical ceiling near the 1.4400 level after the Canadian Dollar's sharp 8.5% decline in 2024 sent the pair to 56-month highs. However, technical indicators like the MACD suggest caution, as short positions may only become viable once clear sell signals emerge, likely during the first quarter. SUPPORT 1.361 SUPPORT 1.353 SUPPORT 1.361 RESISTANCE 1.357 RESISTANCE 1.355
Short
by Mark804
4
USD/CAD) strong bullish trend Read The captionSMC trading point update Technical analysis of USD/CAD (U.S. Dollar vs Canadian Dollar) on the daily timeframe. Here's a breakdown of the trade --- Technical Breakdown: 1. Breakout from Descending Channel: Price has broken out above a descending trend channel (marked with black lines). This breakout suggests a potential trend reversal or at least a bullish correction phase. 2. Key Support Zone (Yellow Box): The yellow zone marked as “support level” was a strong consolidation area. Price has bounced off this zone multiple times, forming a solid base for further upside. 3. Bullish Price Action: Price has closed above the previous resistance (now support), signaling bullish intent. Current candle structure confirms strength with bullish continuation patterns. 4. RSI Indicator: RSI is at 56.38, indicating bullish momentum without being overbought. Suggests there is room for further upside before exhaustion. --- Target Levels: Target Point 1: 1.37968 (near-term resistance) Target Point 2: 1.38615 (intermediate target) Target Point 3: 1.39064–1.39090 (longer-term resistance near the 200 EMA) Mr SMC Trading point --- Trade Idea Summary: Bias: Bullish Entry Zone: Break and retest of the yellow support area (~1.368–1.371) Target Zone: 1.379 – 1.390 Invalidation: Break below the yellow support zone Confluence: RSI strength + breakout of downtrend channel + structural support plesse support boost 🚀 this analysis)
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
USDCAD LONG DAILY FORECAST Q3 D10 W28 Y25USDCAD LONG DAILY FORECAST Q3 D10 W28 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Daily Order block identified ✅4H Order Block identified ✅1H Order Block identified 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT
USDCAD: Price Approaching Buying Zone, Will DXY Bounce Back? The USDCAD pair has dropped significantly in recent times, particularly as the DXY index has plummeted. The extremely bearish nature of the DXY suggests that the price of USDCAD is melting. Both fundamental and technical indicators indicate a potential bullish price reversal for this pair, which could potentially hit our first take-profit area. This is a swing analysis, so please give time for the trade to get activated and for it to work out in our favour. Please note that this analysis does not guarantee that the price will move as suggested. Before trading, it’s essential to conduct your own research. If you’d like to assist us, we encourage you to consider the following actions: - Like our ideas - Provide comments on our ideas - Share our ideas Kind regards, Team Setupsfx_ Much love ❤️🚀
Long
by Setupsfx_
28
#USDCAD: 1000+ Pips Big Bullish Move With Three TargetsThe USDCAD is currently in a bearish trend since the day has dropped significantly and is still falling. We anticipate the price to drop slightly more before it reaches our entry zone. There are two entry points, and you can choose either one that aligns with your views. There are three targets, and you can set take profit targets that suit you best. Good luck and trade safely. Thanks for your support! 😊 If you want to help us out, here are a few things you can do: - Like our ideas - Comment on our ideas - Share our ideas Team Setupsfx_ ❤️🚀
Long
by Setupsfx_
18