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Usdcadlong

USDCAD Double Top Signals a Potential BreakdownUSDCAD pair is testing a critical resistance area near 1.3830 after a strong rebound. But the price structure is beginning to flash signs of exhaustion. With repeated rejections and a clear double-top pattern forming, the setup favors a bearish move. If momentum turns, we could see a meaningful correction toward the 1.3730 support zone, with deeper downside risk into mid-September. Current Bias Bearish rejection at resistance, structure favors downside continuation. Key Fundamental Drivers Canada: Weak August jobs report (unemployment 7.1%, wages cooling) raised BoC cut expectations, pressuring CAD. But oil prices (Brent ~$65) limit the downside risk, giving CAD some commodity support. U.S.: Weaker jobs (+142k NFP, unemployment 4.3%) keeps Fed cuts on the table, capping USD upside. Core PCE sticky at 2.9%, but inflation trend is moderating. Macro Context Interest Rates: Fed expected to cut in coming months; BoC markets price ~90% chance of a September cut. Economic Growth: U.S. slowing but still resilient, Canada contracting (Q2 GDP −0.4% q/q). Commodities: Oil’s soft rebound provides CAD with some stability. Geopolitics: Trade tensions (U.S. tariffs, China-Russia bond coordination) keep USD supported as a defensive hedge. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp oil sell-off would weaken CAD and trigger USD/CAD upside. U.S. CPI surprise to the upside could reprice Fed expectations, boosting USD. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event U.S. CPI (this week): Will decide Fed cut timing. BoC September rate decision: High probability of a cut, market focus on forward guidance. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD is typically a lagger — following USD direction (via Fed expectations) and CAD flows (via oil). It often mirrors oil price action and diverges from USD/JPY, reflecting risk sentiment shifts. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3732, 1.3585 Resistance Levels: 1.3830, 1.3875 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3875 Take Profit (TP): 1.3732 (first), 1.3585 (extended) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is leaning bearish after failing to break cleanly above 1.3830. Fundamentals point to a tug-of-war between dovish BoC expectations and weaker U.S. data, but the chart structure favors downside into 1.3732 and potentially 1.3585. My stop loss sits above 1.3875 to protect against a breakout. Watch U.S. CPI as the key driver: a hotter print could revive USD strength, while a softer read could accelerate CAD gains. Oil’s stability remains a secondary but important factor for CAD resilience.
Short
by ultreosforex
USD/CAD – Bulls Eyeing a Bounce from Key Demand ZoneAfter an aggressive correction from the 1.3920 highs, USD/CAD has now landed on a heavy demand zone near 1.3720 – 1.3740. This area has proven to be a launchpad for rallies in recent weeks, and price is once again testing buyers’ conviction. With both technical structure and macro fundamentals in play, this zone could determine the next major swing. Current Bias Bullish bias as long as 1.3720 holds, with upside potential toward 1.3818 and 1.3920 supply. Key Fundamental Drivers USD: Supported by sticky inflation (Core PCE 2.9% y/y) and resilient consumer spending (+0.5% m/m). Fed rate cut expectations have softened, keeping the dollar supported. CAD: Weighed down by weaker Canadian GDP (Q2 annualized -1.6%, q/q -0.4%) and slowing momentum in domestic growth. Oil remains weak near $64, offering little support to the loonie. Macro Context Rates: The Fed remains cautious with cuts, while the BoC faces pressure from economic contraction. Interest rate divergence favors the USD. Growth Trends: US growth remains firmer compared to Canada’s slowdown. Commodities: Oil’s weakness is a drag on CAD, making the currency vulnerable. Geopolitics: Ongoing tariff disputes and Middle East energy risks keep USD demand steady as a safe haven, further weighing on CAD. Primary Risk to the Trend A deeper selloff in USD on unexpected Fed dovishness or a sharp rebound in oil prices (driven by geopolitical shocks or supply cuts) could strengthen CAD and invalidate the bullish setup. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event US ISM PMI & NFP (this week): Key drivers for Fed policy path. Canada Jobs Report (Friday): Critical for CAD sentiment after the weak GDP print. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD tends to lag oil and broader USD moves. It often follows the dollar’s momentum, while oil price shocks can lead moves on CAD. Currently, the pair is USD-led, making it more reactive to Fed data than Canadian domestic flows. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3720 – 1.3740 (demand zone), 1.3660. Resistance Levels: 1.3818 (mid-resistance), 1.3918 – 1.3925 (major supply). Stop Loss (SL): 1.3650 (below demand zone invalidation). Take Profit (TP): 1.3818 (first target), 1.3920 (extended target). Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is sitting at a key demand zone around 1.3720 – 1.3740, where buyers need to defend the trend. The bias remains bullish above this level, with upside targets at 1.3818 and 1.3920. A break below 1.3650 would invalidate the long setup and expose further downside. With US data in focus and CAD weighed down by weak GDP and soft oil prices, the pair is more likely to follow USD momentum in the near term. Traders should watch NFP and Canada’s jobs data closely, as these will dictate whether this bounce carries to new highs or fades into deeper consolidation.
Long
by ultreosforex
8
USD/CAD - Bullish Pennant (04.09.2025)The USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bullish Pennant Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.3835 2nd Resistance – 1.3853 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
50
The Loonie Trap! Is USD/CAD About to Explode Higher?💵 USD/CAD "The Loonie" Forex Bank Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) 🏦🐱‍👤 🌟Dear Ladies & Gentlemen – Thief OG’s & Market Robbers!🌟 The vault is loaded, and today’s heist target is none other than USD/CAD "The Loonie". We play it the Thief way – patient, layered, and ready to strike only when the breakout lights the fuse ⚡ 📈 Entry (Pending Breakout Plan) Breakout Level: 1.38700 ⚡ "Wait for the alarm – the heist starts only when the vault door cracks!" Layered Buy Limit Entries: (Thief Strategy DCA) 1.38600 1.38400 1.38200 (You can add more layers based on your style – Thief never limits the tools of a robbery!) 📌 Pro Tip: Set an Alarm on TradingView so you’ll know exactly when the breakout hits – thieves don’t wait blindly. 🛑 Stop Loss (Thief-Style Safety) SL only after breakout + pullback confirmation 🚨 My vault lock suggestion: 1.37900 But remember, Thief OG’s – SL is YOUR call. Adjust based on risk, layering size & style. Don’t just follow me blindly – no one tells a thief how to escape 😉 🎯 Take Profit (The Escape Plan) Electric shock resistance zone ahead – bail out before getting fried ⚡ TP @ 1.39700 💰 But again – you choose when to grab the bag & vanish 🏃💨. Thief rules: steal, escape, disappear! 📰 Thief Notes Strategy: Layered Buy Orders ✅ Style: Swing/Day Trade 🕰️ Target: Quick smash-and-grab before resistance cops arrive 🚓 Risk: Always manage YOUR loot. 💖 Dear Thief OG’s, if you vibe with this USD/CAD Loonie Bank Heist Plan, hit the Boost Button 🚀. The more we boost, the stronger our robbery crew becomes 🏆💪💵 👉 Stay tuned – next heist drops soon 🤑
Long
by The-Thief
USDCAD Long Setup: From PRZ to Resistance LinesToday, I want to review the USDCAD ( OANDA:USDCAD ) long position with you. USDCAD has reacted well to Support lines and the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ)(1.373 CAD-1.370 CAD) . From the perspective of Elliott wave theory , it seems that USDCAD has completed the microwave 5 of the main wave C . I expect USDCAD to rise to the Resistance lines in the short term. Second Target: 1.3817 CAD Stop Loss(SL): 1.3698 CAD Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar Analyze (USDCAD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
10
USDCAD BUYS🔎 Technical Breakdown Breakout Structure Price had been consolidating in a sideways range after a strong downtrend. Recently, price broke out of the consolidation zone to the upside, showing buyers stepping in. Current candles are forming higher lows → early trend reversal signals. Support Zone (Demand Area) Around 1.3730–1.3740, price rejected multiple times (wicks). This shows strong demand, making it a safe stop-loss zone. Candle Behavior Recent bullish candles have longer bodies and smaller wicks → momentum favors buyers. The last red candles got quickly engulfed by blue (bullish) candles → market bias shifted. Risk-to-Reward (RRR) SL around 1.3731 and TP1 at 1.3770 / TP2 1.3790 gives you nearly a 1:2 RRR, which is favorable. Market Context USDCAD often reacts strongly to oil price moves and USD strength. If USD is stable/strong, buying pressure supports this setup. Also, this looks like a retracement entry after a sell-off, catching the early reversal PS - STILL BEARISH IN DAILY TF
Long
by acefxtrades
Is the USDCAD Rally Overextended Into Key Resistance Levels?The USDCAD is currently testing a formidable resistance zone following a period of strong bullish momentum. The primary catalyst for this upward repricing has been a clear divergence in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is maintaining its hawkish bias, supported by persistent U.S. inflation data, which provides underlying strength to the dollar. 🦅 Conversely, moderating CPI in Canada has allowed the Bank of Canada to adopt a more dovish tone, creating a fundamental headwind for the loonie. 🍁 From a technical standpoint, the rally appears overextended, with momentum indicators suggesting the pair is now in overbought territory. 🛑 We're observing signs of price exhaustion as it challenges this key multi-month resistance level. Institutional sentiment is consequently shifting towards caution. The key strategic question now is whether we see a confirmed breakout on significant volume or a mean reversion scenario. At these levels, the risk-reward profile for new long positions is becoming unfavorable without further confirmation. I'm monitoring for either a decisive close above this zone or for signs of a corrective pullback. Stay sharp.
by fxtraderanthony
USD/CAD: Inverse Head & Shoulders Playing OutHello guys. The chart is showing a clear inverse head & shoulders pattern, which often signals a potential bullish reversal. Price is now pushing above the neckline, suggesting momentum is shifting to the upside. As long as buyers hold this breakout, there’s room for continuation toward the 1.3853 and 1.3868 resistance levels. Key Levels: Support: 1.3720 (pattern invalidation if broken) Breakout Zone: 1.3800–1.3820 (neckline retest area) Targets: 1.3853 → 1.3868
Long
by melikatrader94
9
USD/CAD Bullish Bias Supported by COT Data and Seasonal Trends🗓 Monthly Chart Overview • Price Inefficiency Zone: There's a clear imbalance between 1.40165 and 1.41248, suggesting a potential magnet for price. A retracement to at least the 50% level of this inefficiency could be expected. • Bullish Structure: Price has formed a bullish order block and is currently retracing, which often precedes a continuation move upward. • This setup hints at accumulation before a bullish expansion. 📆 Weekly Chart Insights • Inefficiency Filled: Price has filled previous inefficiencies, showing healthy market structure. • Liquidity Behavior: We've seen price sweep lows, then begin sweeping highs, while respecting bullish blocks—a strong indication of a shift in directional intent. • This behavior supports the idea that USD/CAD is preparing for a bullish continuation. 📅 Daily Chart Momentum • Aggressive Breakout: After a period of consolidation, price broke out aggressively to the upside, confirming bullish momentum. • Structure: The daily chart maintains a bullish structure, reinforcing the higher timeframe bias. 💹 Commitment of Traders (COT) Data • USD Positioning: The U.S. Dollar is showing net buying interest, supporting strength. • CAD Positioning: The Canadian Dollar is net bearish on average when compared to last year’s data. • This divergence in sentiment adds confluence to a bullish USD/CAD bias. 📊 Seasonal Trends • Historically, USD/CAD tends to rise from August through November, with September, October, and especially November being the most bullish months. • This seasonal tendency aligns with the current technical and fundamental setup. 🏦 Macro Considerations • Interest Rates: Keep a close eye on central bank rate decisions and forward guidance, as they can significantly impact USD/CAD volatility and direction. 🔍 Summary USD/CAD shows strong bullish potential across monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes. Technical structure, COT data, and seasonal trends all point toward a continuation to the upside. A revisit to the inefficiency zone around 1.4060–1.4120 could be a key target in the coming months.
Long
by Wiiso
USDCAD 4-Hour Analysis – Bulls and Bears Battle for ControlCurrent Price: 1.37706 Timeframe: 4 Hours Technical Indicators Overview SMA (9-period): Price is hovering around the short-term moving average, signaling indecision in momentum. RSI (14): Currently near the 50 level, showing a neutral momentum—neither overbought nor oversold. Key Resistance: 1.3800 – A psychological and technical barrier tested multiple times. Key Support: 1.3700 – A level where buyers previously stepped in to prevent further decline. Price Action Summary USDCAD recently saw a strong bullish move towards the 1.3900 area but quickly reversed, pulling back below the 1.3800 mark. Since then, price action has been choppy, suggesting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. On the 4H chart, the SMA 9 is acting as a dynamic pivot, with candles frequently crossing above and below it. This behavior often precedes a breakout, but direction confirmation is still lacking. RSI Insights The RSI remains neutral, around 50, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressures. A move above 60 could invite bullish momentum, while a drop below 40 may trigger further selling. Potential Scenarios Bullish Breakout: If price breaks and closes above 1.3800, the next upside target could be 1.3850–1.3900, where previous highs lie. Bearish Reversal: Failure to hold above 1.3750 could open the door for a move towards 1.3700, and below that, 1.3650. Conclusion USDCAD is in a consolidation phase, awaiting a catalyst for a decisive breakout. Traders should watch the 1.3800 resistance and 1.3750 support for clues on the next directional move.
Short
by forexinworld
USD/CAD Bullish Heist Plan – Will You Join the Crew?💼💸 USD/CAD "The Loonie" – Bullish Vault Heist Plan 🕶️📈 "Layer the Entry. Stack the Cash. Escape Clean." 🧠 Mastermind Setup (Thief Trader Blueprint) 🔍 Asset: USD/CAD – The Loonie (Forex Market) 📜 Plan: Bullish — Thief is moving in with precision layering strategy. 📈 Entry Plan: Thief’s not kicking the door once—he’s picking multiple locks! Layer those buy limits for stealth entries: (1.37700) 🏦 | (1.37500) 💰 | (1.37300) 🔑 | (1.37000) 🚪 💡 Add more layers if the vault’s deeper than expected. 🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 🎯 Official Thief SL parked @ 1.37000. But remember—OG thieves adjust SL to match their risk appetite & personal strategy. 🎯 Target: 1.38680 – Grab the loot and vanish! 📢 Heist Intel (Market Context) USD/CAD is eyeing upside momentum, powered by USD strength + oil price plays. Expect pullbacks before the real breakout—perfect for layered infiltration. ⚠️ Thief’s Street Rules: Don’t enter during high-impact news — guards will be on alert. Use trailing stops to protect the loot once in profit. Layer patiently—don’t rush the vault door. 💣 Final Words from the Crew: Every pip is a coin in the bag. Stay disciplined, stay layered, and leave no trace. 🐱‍👤💎 💖 Boost the plan, share with the crew, and let’s make this Loonie Heist legendary. 🚀💼
Long
by The-Thief
USDCAD BEARISH ZONE COMESUP Current Technical Landscape Market Sentiment & Drivers The USD/CAD has risen modestly following Canada’s weak jobs data showing a −40.8 k drop in employment, raising expectations of dovish Bank of Canada policy and fueling a weaker Loonie. Meanwhile, signals of a more dovish Fed—especially after Trump’s appointed governor tone—have added further downward pressure on the USD. Key Levels & Technical Indicators ActionForex (Intraday): 4H MACD has crossed above its signal, neutralizing bias for now. Break below 1.3720 could target a deeper fall back to 1.3538 — the recent corrective low. Break above 1.3809 would invalidate that bearish view and suggest a retest of 1.3878. ActionForex (Weekly): The pair hovered around 1.3720 last week with a neutral weekly bias. A downside break could confirm continuation of the corrective decline toward 1.3538. A bullish breakout beyond 1.3809 could lead to a retest of 1.3878 and possibly higher. StockTA (as of July 28): Overall sentiment remains bearish (score: −0.26), particularly in the short-term (−0.48). Key resistance cluster around 1.47 to 1.45, with multiple levels noted between 1.47 and 1.37. Support appears near 1.36, based on their analysis. Marketscreener (latest in July): Short-term trend: Neutral; Mid-term trend: Bearish; Long-term trend: Neutral. Short-term resistance: 1.3733, support: 1.3571. Mid-term resistance: 1.3978, support: 1.3571. Long-term resistance: 1.4524, support: 1.3490. Interpretation: Bearish Zone “Coming Up” The phrase “bearish zone comes up” likely refers to the pair approaching a key resistance area where bearish reversal pressure is increasing. Currently: 1.3720–1.3809 is a critical near-term range. A failure to break above 1.3809 may invite renewed downside toward 1.3538. Medium-term resistance clusters between 1.37 and 1.40 are also zones where bearish setups may form. Broader resistance around 1.45–1.47 remains the major structural ceiling, although this lies further out unless the bias shifts. Strategy Considerations Bearish setup: Wait for rejection near 1.38, ideally with confirmation (e.g. bearish candle, MACD crossover). A break below 1.3720 could accelerate retest of 1.3538. Bullish invalidation: A sustained move above 1.3809 could negate the immediate bearish bias, opening targets back toward 1.3878 and beyond.
by Mark804
USDCAD - Big Picture and MomentumBig Picture and Momentum USD/CAD is trading comfortably above the 50-day EMA (~1.3728) and above the 9-day EMA, indicating continued bullish momentum. The 14-day RSI is above the 50 level, confirming the positive market sentiment. Key Support and Resistance Resistance: 1.3770–1.3798 range is the current target, a break of which could open the way to the January high around 1.4016. Support: 50-day EMA (~1.3728) is the first line of defense. Next is the 9-day EMA (~1.3679). A further weakening could see a decline to 1.3560, and a strong correction could see a decline to the February 2024 lows (~1.3420). Market Behavior Scenarios Bullish scenario: holding above EMA with RSI > 50 creates good conditions for a move up to 1.3770-1.3800, and then to 1.4016, with increasing momentum. Bearish scenario: falling below EMA, especially below 1.3679, can lead to a deeper decline - to 1.3560 and then to 1.3420. Recommendations for traders Long position: can be considered for entry when holding above 1.3728, with a target of 1.3770-1.3800, and a stop just below the EMA. Short position: justified when falling below 1.3728-1.3679, with a target of 1.3560, and a stop just above the EMA level.
Short
by Trade_Hive_Signals
USDCAD Daily AnalysisUSDCAD has recently completed a clean 5-wave Elliott Wave decline, reaching a significant low at 1.3540 on June 16, 2025. This low marks the end of the bearish cycle, followed by an accumulation phase. During this phase, price formed a triple bottom pattern, confirming strong demand around the 1.3540–1.3560 zone. The breakout above the neckline confirms this reversal pattern, and price is now retesting the previous resistance zone (1.3750–1.3770), which has turned into support. The pair is also trading above the 21-period EMA, reinforcing the bullish momentum. Elliott Wave & Structure Outlook Elliott Wave count shows a completed 1–5 bearish wave, followed by a corrective bullish structure in progress. Wave A of the corrective move has likely completed, and Wave B retracement is underway. A continuation toward Wave C is expected, targeting the 1.4180–1.4300 resistance area, aligning with prior major supply zones. Trade Plan Buy Entry Zone: 1.3750 – 1.3700 Stop Loss: 1.3560 (below structure support and trendline) Take Profit Targets: 🎯 TP1: 1.4000 🎯 TP2: 1.4180 🎯 TP3: 1.4300 USDCAD has shifted from a prolonged bearish trend into a bullish corrective phase. A successful retest of the breakout zone offers a high-probability long trade setup. Breakout and continuation toward 1.4180–1.4300 aligns with wave theory and technical resistance zones.
Long
by SaklainManzoor