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Usdcadsell

USDCAD: Momentum Falters as Bears Eye Deeper CorrectionAfter a strong run higher, USDCAD is now showing signs of exhaustion. Price action has slipped below a short-term trendline, and with CAD fundamentals anchored by oil prices, the pair looks increasingly vulnerable to a pullback. The recent stalling near 1.4070 suggests buyers may be losing grip, opening the door for sellers to drive a corrective wave lower. Current Bias Bearish – momentum has shifted, with lower highs forming and trendline support already breached. Key Fundamental Drivers USD: Fed officials remain cautious on cutting rates too quickly, but sticky inflation risks could limit downside in the dollar. CAD: Supported by oil market stability and resilient wage data, even as broader growth remains soft. Relative Outlook: CAD gains the upper hand in commodity-driven environments, particularly when oil stays bid. Macro Context Interest Rates: Fed is on a slower path to easing compared to the BoC, but markets have priced in eventual US rate cuts. Economic Growth: US growth is slowing but still outpacing Canada, though oil revenues balance the picture for CAD. Commodity Flows: Oil prices remain the most critical support for CAD. Any extended rally in energy prices strengthens downside bias in USDCAD. Geopolitical Themes: US trade tensions and global policy risks feed USD volatility, while CAD’s link to oil offers a clearer directional driver. Primary Risk to the Trend A sudden drop in oil prices or a hawkish Fed surprise could lift USD and break bearish momentum in USDCAD. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event US PCE inflation and labor market data. Canada employment and CPI releases. Weekly oil inventories and OPEC+ commentary. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USDCAD often trades as a lagger, following USD moves against majors like EURUSD or DXY. It also shadows oil fluctuations, making CAD more reactive than proactive. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3910, 1.3818, 1.3738 Resistance Levels: 1.4029, 1.4079 Stop Loss (SL): 1.4079 Take Profit (TP): 1.3818 (first), 1.3738 (extended) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USDCAD is leaning bearish after breaking below its short-term trendline, with price action suggesting a correction toward 1.3910 and potentially 1.3818. The trade setup favors shorts with SL above 1.4079 to protect against Fed-driven dollar spikes. CAD strength remains tied to oil, so energy headlines are crucial watchpoints. While USD remains fundamentally supported, the short-term flow favors sellers, making this a correction opportunity rather than a trend reversal.
Short
by ultreosforex
USDCAD Dollar Building as Loonie Struggles with Oil & Weak DataUSDCAD has surged into a key resistance zone, showing resilience even against temporary pullbacks. The pair is benefiting from broad USD strength as the Fed maintains a cautious stance on rate cuts, while the Canadian dollar is weighed down by weaker labor data and softer oil demand. Price action suggests the market is gearing up for another bullish extension if buyers can defend current support. Current Bias Bullish – upward momentum is intact with strong support holding above 1.3930 and potential continuation toward higher resistance. Key Fundamental Drivers USD Strength: Supported by sticky US inflation and a Fed reluctant to accelerate cuts. CAD Weakness: Canada’s job market recovery remains patchy, with unemployment elevated and wage growth cooling. Oil Prices: Recent volatility in crude undermines CAD, which typically benefits from higher energy prices. Macro Context Interest Rate Expectations: Fed holding rates steady longer, BoC facing pressure to ease further if labor market slack persists. Economic Growth Trends: US growth remains steady, Canada showing signs of stagnation. Commodity Flows: Oil fluctuations weigh directly on CAD; weaker demand outlook adds to downside risk. Geopolitical Themes: Global tariff disputes and risk aversion support USD safe-haven flows at the expense of CAD. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp rebound in oil prices or stronger-than-expected Canadian inflation data could strengthen CAD and cap USD gains. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada CPI (Oct 22) will be critical for BoC expectations. US CPI and Fed speeches remain key for dollar direction. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USDCAD is more of a lagger, reacting to USD moves and oil-driven CAD flows. It follows broader USD direction but can influence CAD crosses like CADJPY and EURCAD. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3930 (short-term support) 1.3842 (structural support) Resistance Levels: 1.4035 (near-term resistance) 1.4147 (major target) Stop Loss (SL): 1.3842 Take Profit (TP): 1.4147 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USDCAD bias is bullish, with buyers defending support and positioning for another leg higher. The fundamental backdrop of a stronger USD and weaker CAD underpins the move, with oil prices adding a bearish weight to the Canadian dollar. The setup looks favorable for continuation toward 1.4147, provided support at 1.3930 holds. Stop loss sits at 1.3842 to protect against a deeper correction, while the take profit is set at 1.4147. The pair remains a lagger, following USD strength and oil dynamics, making US and Canadian inflation data the most important watchpoints ahead.
Long
by ultreosforex
USD/CAD Bearish Channel Breakout – Short SetupThis chart is for USD/CAD (30-min timeframe) and shows a clear bearish setup. Here’s the breakdown: --- 1. Pattern Price is moving inside a downward channel (highlighted in pink). Currently near the midline of the channel with potential to retest the upper boundary. The plan here seems to be a sell setup after a small bullish pullback. --- 2. Key Levels Entry Point: 1.39286 (after price pulls back into the blue zone). Stop Loss: 1.39392 (just above the channel and resistance zone – good risk management). Target Point: 1.38880 (near the lower channel boundary, aligning with previous support). --- 3. Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) This setup offers a favorable RRR (roughly 1:3), meaning potential reward is about 3x the risk. --- 4. Bias Bearish bias – expecting continuation of the downtrend after price retests resistance. The market is respecting the descending channel, and unless price breaks above 1.3940, sellers remain in control. --- 5. Confirmation to Watch Look for rejection candles or bearish engulfing in the blue zone before taking entry. If price breaks and closes above 1.3940, this setup becomes invalid (bullish breakout likely). --- ✅ Summary: This is a well-planned short (sell) setup. Wait for price to pull back to 1.3928 – 1.3930, then sell with stop above 1.3940 and target near 1.3888.
Short
by LABA_GOLD_TRADING
4
USDCAD Bulls Building Momentum as Loonie WeakensUSDCAD has bounced strongly from recent lows, with buyers regaining control and pushing the pair toward key resistance levels. The move reflects a combination of weaker Canadian fundamentals and resilient USD demand. With oil prices under pressure and the Bank of Canada leaning dovish, the stage looks set for USD strength to continue pressing higher against the CAD. Current Bias Bullish – price structure favors further upside toward resistance. Key Fundamental Drivers Federal Reserve: While the Fed is moving toward gradual easing, safe-haven demand and inflation risks from tariffs keep the dollar supported. Bank of Canada: Markets price a high probability of another BoC rate cut, reflecting weak labor market data and slowing growth. Oil Prices: Crude remains soft near the low $60s, weighing directly on the CAD as energy exports weaken. Macro Context Interest Rates: The Fed is cautious but still less dovish than the BoC, creating policy divergence that favors USD. Economic Growth: Canada’s GDP contracted in Q2, and labor data confirms rising unemployment; meanwhile, the U.S. economy, though slowing, is relatively stronger. Commodity Flows: Oil remains CAD’s key driver, and falling prices keep downside pressure on the currency. Geopolitics: U.S. tariffs on Canadian auto parts and broader trade uncertainty add extra headwinds for Canada. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp rebound in oil prices or surprisingly hawkish comments from the BoC could reverse the bullish momentum. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada GDP and employment reports U.S. PCE inflation data BoC policy meeting outlook Leader/Lagger Dynamics USDCAD often acts as a lagger to oil moves, with crude leading sentiment on CAD. However, in times of strong USD demand, USDCAD can act as a leader for CAD crosses like CADJPY and AUDCAD. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3738, 1.3668 Resistance Levels: 1.3826, 1.3891 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3668 (below recent swing support) Take Profit (TP): 1.3826 (first target), extension to 1.3891 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USDCAD carries a bullish bias, supported by weaker Canadian data, softer oil prices, and dovish BoC expectations. A stop loss below 1.3668 protects against downside risks, while targets at 1.3826 and 1.3891 keep focus on upside continuation. Watch Canadian GDP and employment data closely, alongside U.S. PCE inflation, as key catalysts. The pair remains reactive to oil prices but could act as a leader for CAD crosses if USD strength dominates.
Long
by ultreosforex
USDCAD Bearish Reversal Setup – Supply Zone + Rising Wedge Break1. Chart Pattern A rising wedge/channel (highlighted in red) is clearly forming, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern. The pair has reached the upper boundary of the wedge — a strong resistance area. 2. Supply Zone Marked around the 1.3945 – 1.3981 area. This is a potential reversal zone, where selling pressure may overpower buying interest. The price has just entered this zone, indicating a possible short setup. 3. Trade Setup (Short Position) Entry Point: 1.39431 Stop Loss: 1.39810 – 1.39815 (just above the supply zone) Target Point: 1.36328 📉 Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) Risk: ~38 pips (1.3981 - 1.3943) Reward: ~310 pips (1.3943 - 1.3632) RRR: ~8:1 – this is an excellent reward-to-risk ratio, making the trade very attractive if the setup confirms. 4. Trend Context The prior trend before the wedge was bearish. The wedge appears to be a corrective move, which aligns with the idea of a continuation to the downside. 5. Bearish Confirmation Needed Ideally, a bearish candlestick pattern (like a pin bar, engulfing, or evening star) inside the supply zone would provide confirmation before entering the short. 📊 Summary of Strategy Component Value Trade Direction Short Entry Price 1.39431 Stop Loss 1.39810 Take Profit 1.36328 Risk/Reward ~1:8 Setup Type Supply Zone Reversal + Rising Wedge Breakout ✅ Pros High RRR Strong supply zone Rising wedge at resistance Price action supports reversal ⚠️ Risks If price breaks above the supply zone, the setup becomes invalid Wait for confirmation before entering (e.g., bearish candlestick pattern)
Short
by LABA_GOLD_TRADING
4
USDCAD: A Sell Opportunity You Can't MissLooking at the USDCAD chart, we can see that price is moving within a descending channel with lower highs. Currently, price is testing the upper boundary of this channel. In the past, sellers have successfully defended this level multiple times, and the current market structure suggests we may see another rejection here. If that happens, setting up a short position would be straightforward. Our target would be around 1.38150, a reasonable objective based on this setup, where a price retracement or even a strong decline could occur. The current trend remains bearish, and in descending channels like this, going with the trend is generally a better strategy than fighting it. Until buyers convincingly break this descending channel, sellers remain in control, and the opportunity to trade with the trend is still very clear. Do you see it this way as well?
Short
by Kenn_Nguyen
6
PERFECT USDCAD SHORT ENTRYI have a weekly short bias on FX:USDCAD , we can see a previous strong rejection of the weekly 50ema, and currently price is rejecting the level again. Moving into next week this gives a bearish bias. Now moving down to the daily timeframe there looks to be a clear head and shoulders structure forming, with the previous days candle showing a bearish engulfing bar from a liquidity zone, I am bearish, and looking for a lower timeframe entry. Now on the lower 1h timeframe I am seeing a bos to the downside with a double pin rejection of ema. # This break of trend, with all timeframes aligned, gives a perfect short setup imo. Give a follow for more:)
Short
by Euan7rTrader
2
USDCAD Breakout Watch: Bulls Eye 1.3920 After Retesting SupportUSDCAD is coiling for a potential breakout, with buyers defending the 1.3820–1.3840 support zone and eyeing higher levels. The chart shows repeated higher lows, and fundamentals are aligning in favor of the dollar as the Canadian side faces pressure from weaker data and oil volatility. The setup is building momentum for a push toward 1.3920 if the breakout materializes. Current Bias Bullish – USD strength and Canadian headwinds support upside continuation. Key Fundamental Drivers Federal Reserve: Slower pace of cuts compared to expectations keeps USD attractive. Bank of Canada: Market pricing leans heavily toward further easing after weak jobs data and slowing growth. Oil Prices: WTI struggles below $65, weighing on CAD’s commodity-linked appeal. Trade balance: Canada’s recent deficits add to pressure on CAD. Macro Context Interest rates: Fed cautious on cuts; BoC more dovish, widening policy divergence. Economic growth: Canadian economy showing contraction in GDP and weaker labor data, while US growth remains firmer. Commodity flows: Oil demand remains uncertain, keeping CAD on the defensive. Geopolitical: Trade tensions and US tariffs add to USD safe-haven appeal, further denting CAD sentiment. Primary Risk to the Trend A strong oil rebound or a surprisingly hawkish BoC stance could support CAD and limit upside in USDCAD. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada CPI and BoC decision – key for confirming further CAD weakness. US CPI and Fed communication – will guide whether USD keeps its bid. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USDCAD often acts as a lagger to broad USD moves (particularly following EURUSD and DXY). However, it can lead CAD crosses like CADJPY and AUDCAD when oil-driven moves accelerate. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3820, 1.3785 Resistance Levels: 1.3880, 1.3920 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3785 (below structural support) Take Profit (TP): 1.3920 (major resistance zone) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USDCAD is consolidating with buyers eyeing an upside breakout. The bias remains bullish, with SL at 1.3785 protecting against downside failure and TP at 1.3920 offering a clean upside target. The divergence between a cautious Fed and a dovish BoC, combined with oil weakness, tilts the balance in favor of USD strength. The key watchpoints are Canada’s CPI and BoC policy direction, which could either accelerate the breakout or disrupt the setup.
Long
by ultreosforex
1
USDCAD Double Top Signals a Potential BreakdownUSDCAD pair is testing a critical resistance area near 1.3830 after a strong rebound. But the price structure is beginning to flash signs of exhaustion. With repeated rejections and a clear double-top pattern forming, the setup favors a bearish move. If momentum turns, we could see a meaningful correction toward the 1.3730 support zone, with deeper downside risk into mid-September. Current Bias Bearish rejection at resistance, structure favors downside continuation. Key Fundamental Drivers Canada: Weak August jobs report (unemployment 7.1%, wages cooling) raised BoC cut expectations, pressuring CAD. But oil prices (Brent ~$65) limit the downside risk, giving CAD some commodity support. U.S.: Weaker jobs (+142k NFP, unemployment 4.3%) keeps Fed cuts on the table, capping USD upside. Core PCE sticky at 2.9%, but inflation trend is moderating. Macro Context Interest Rates: Fed expected to cut in coming months; BoC markets price ~90% chance of a September cut. Economic Growth: U.S. slowing but still resilient, Canada contracting (Q2 GDP −0.4% q/q). Commodities: Oil’s soft rebound provides CAD with some stability. Geopolitics: Trade tensions (U.S. tariffs, China-Russia bond coordination) keep USD supported as a defensive hedge. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp oil sell-off would weaken CAD and trigger USD/CAD upside. U.S. CPI surprise to the upside could reprice Fed expectations, boosting USD. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event U.S. CPI (this week): Will decide Fed cut timing. BoC September rate decision: High probability of a cut, market focus on forward guidance. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD is typically a lagger — following USD direction (via Fed expectations) and CAD flows (via oil). It often mirrors oil price action and diverges from USD/JPY, reflecting risk sentiment shifts. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3732, 1.3585 Resistance Levels: 1.3830, 1.3875 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3875 Take Profit (TP): 1.3732 (first), 1.3585 (extended) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is leaning bearish after failing to break cleanly above 1.3830. Fundamentals point to a tug-of-war between dovish BoC expectations and weaker U.S. data, but the chart structure favors downside into 1.3732 and potentially 1.3585. My stop loss sits above 1.3875 to protect against a breakout. Watch U.S. CPI as the key driver: a hotter print could revive USD strength, while a softer read could accelerate CAD gains. Oil’s stability remains a secondary but important factor for CAD resilience.
Short
by ultreosforex
1
USD/CAD – Bulls Eyeing a Bounce from Key Demand ZoneAfter an aggressive correction from the 1.3920 highs, USD/CAD has now landed on a heavy demand zone near 1.3720 – 1.3740. This area has proven to be a launchpad for rallies in recent weeks, and price is once again testing buyers’ conviction. With both technical structure and macro fundamentals in play, this zone could determine the next major swing. Current Bias Bullish bias as long as 1.3720 holds, with upside potential toward 1.3818 and 1.3920 supply. Key Fundamental Drivers USD: Supported by sticky inflation (Core PCE 2.9% y/y) and resilient consumer spending (+0.5% m/m). Fed rate cut expectations have softened, keeping the dollar supported. CAD: Weighed down by weaker Canadian GDP (Q2 annualized -1.6%, q/q -0.4%) and slowing momentum in domestic growth. Oil remains weak near $64, offering little support to the loonie. Macro Context Rates: The Fed remains cautious with cuts, while the BoC faces pressure from economic contraction. Interest rate divergence favors the USD. Growth Trends: US growth remains firmer compared to Canada’s slowdown. Commodities: Oil’s weakness is a drag on CAD, making the currency vulnerable. Geopolitics: Ongoing tariff disputes and Middle East energy risks keep USD demand steady as a safe haven, further weighing on CAD. Primary Risk to the Trend A deeper selloff in USD on unexpected Fed dovishness or a sharp rebound in oil prices (driven by geopolitical shocks or supply cuts) could strengthen CAD and invalidate the bullish setup. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event US ISM PMI & NFP (this week): Key drivers for Fed policy path. Canada Jobs Report (Friday): Critical for CAD sentiment after the weak GDP print. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD tends to lag oil and broader USD moves. It often follows the dollar’s momentum, while oil price shocks can lead moves on CAD. Currently, the pair is USD-led, making it more reactive to Fed data than Canadian domestic flows. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3720 – 1.3740 (demand zone), 1.3660. Resistance Levels: 1.3818 (mid-resistance), 1.3918 – 1.3925 (major supply). Stop Loss (SL): 1.3650 (below demand zone invalidation). Take Profit (TP): 1.3818 (first target), 1.3920 (extended target). Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is sitting at a key demand zone around 1.3720 – 1.3740, where buyers need to defend the trend. The bias remains bullish above this level, with upside targets at 1.3818 and 1.3920. A break below 1.3650 would invalidate the long setup and expose further downside. With US data in focus and CAD weighed down by weak GDP and soft oil prices, the pair is more likely to follow USD momentum in the near term. Traders should watch NFP and Canada’s jobs data closely, as these will dictate whether this bounce carries to new highs or fades into deeper consolidation.
Long
by ultreosforex
8
USDCAD BUYS🔎 Technical Breakdown Breakout Structure Price had been consolidating in a sideways range after a strong downtrend. Recently, price broke out of the consolidation zone to the upside, showing buyers stepping in. Current candles are forming higher lows → early trend reversal signals. Support Zone (Demand Area) Around 1.3730–1.3740, price rejected multiple times (wicks). This shows strong demand, making it a safe stop-loss zone. Candle Behavior Recent bullish candles have longer bodies and smaller wicks → momentum favors buyers. The last red candles got quickly engulfed by blue (bullish) candles → market bias shifted. Risk-to-Reward (RRR) SL around 1.3731 and TP1 at 1.3770 / TP2 1.3790 gives you nearly a 1:2 RRR, which is favorable. Market Context USDCAD often reacts strongly to oil price moves and USD strength. If USD is stable/strong, buying pressure supports this setup. Also, this looks like a retracement entry after a sell-off, catching the early reversal PS - STILL BEARISH IN DAILY TF
Long
by acefxtrades
USD/CAD) Bearish Trend Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/CAD on the 4H timeframe, using Smart Money Concepts (SMC). --- 🔍 Technical Breakdown – USD/CAD (4H) 1. FVG (Fair Value Gap) / Supply Zone Price is currently trading inside a supply/FVG zone (highlighted in yellow at the top). Market is reacting to this imbalance area where institutional selling pressure is expected. 2. BOS (Break of Structure) Earlier, price made a Break of Structure (BOS) on the downside, confirming a bearish shift in market structure. The current bullish retracement into the supply zone is likely just a pullback before continuation down. 3. Bearish Rejection Expected From the chart, price is anticipated to reject from the supply zone and start a bearish move. Projection shows a strong drop toward the target support zone (SSS). 4. Target Point Final downside target is marked at 1.35847, aligning with the Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) / Support zone (SSS). This zone is a strong liquidity pool where price may hunt stop losses before reversing. --- Summary Bias: Bearish Current Price: 1.38147 Supply Zone (FVG): 1.3800 – 1.3850 (reaction expected) Target Zone (SSS): 1.35847 Setup: Look for short entries inside supply zone with confirmation. Mr SMC Trading point This is a classic SMC setup: BOS Pullback to FVG Liquidity hunt Target Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
USDCAD 4-Hour Analysis – Bulls and Bears Battle for ControlCurrent Price: 1.37706 Timeframe: 4 Hours Technical Indicators Overview SMA (9-period): Price is hovering around the short-term moving average, signaling indecision in momentum. RSI (14): Currently near the 50 level, showing a neutral momentum—neither overbought nor oversold. Key Resistance: 1.3800 – A psychological and technical barrier tested multiple times. Key Support: 1.3700 – A level where buyers previously stepped in to prevent further decline. Price Action Summary USDCAD recently saw a strong bullish move towards the 1.3900 area but quickly reversed, pulling back below the 1.3800 mark. Since then, price action has been choppy, suggesting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. On the 4H chart, the SMA 9 is acting as a dynamic pivot, with candles frequently crossing above and below it. This behavior often precedes a breakout, but direction confirmation is still lacking. RSI Insights The RSI remains neutral, around 50, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressures. A move above 60 could invite bullish momentum, while a drop below 40 may trigger further selling. Potential Scenarios Bullish Breakout: If price breaks and closes above 1.3800, the next upside target could be 1.3850–1.3900, where previous highs lie. Bearish Reversal: Failure to hold above 1.3750 could open the door for a move towards 1.3700, and below that, 1.3650. Conclusion USDCAD is in a consolidation phase, awaiting a catalyst for a decisive breakout. Traders should watch the 1.3800 resistance and 1.3750 support for clues on the next directional move.
Short
by forexinworld
USDCAD Prepaing to Gilde Down ??USDCAD has been struglling to move up, All the monthly and Bi-Monthly analysis show down including D1. Check your support and resistances and open positions accordingly. Wait for Price Again to preform and see the strong breakouts. Disclaimer: The content presented in this IMAGE is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Trading foreign exchange (Forex) on margin involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The use of leverage can work both for and against you. Before deciding to participate in the Forex market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance. There is a possibility that you may incur a loss of some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be fully aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from a licensed and independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always trade responsibly.
Short
by forexnawaab
USDCAD SELLUSD/CAD rallies further, approaches 1.3900 on higher levies to Canada The US Dollar keeps marching higher, as the Canadian Dollar struggles after Trump decided to increase tariffs to Canada to 35% from the previous 25%, escalating the trading tension with one of its main trading partners. The US President justified his decision on Canada’s alleged reluctance to cooperate on curbing the traffic of fentanyl and other drugs across the US border The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape. Canada’s political crisis peaked in late 2024 with a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leading to snap elections and a weakened Liberal minority government. Policy uncertainty and economic challenges dominate 2025’s outlook, raising concerns over market stability and investor confidence. The BoC is set to continue easing interest rates through 2025, at least at a faster pace than the Fed is expected to, which could apply pressure on CAD’s already-rising rate differential. SUPPORT 1.38444 SUPPORT 1.38039 SUPPORT 1.37621 RESISTANCE 1.38889 RESISTANCE 1.39049
Short
by Mark804
USDCAD SELLUSD/CAD rallies to 1.3680 as the market focuses on a hawkish Fed The US Dollar extends its recovery for the second consecutive day, supported by strong US data. Upbeat US business activity and Jobless Claims support the Fed's "wait and see" rhetoric. In Canada, the weak Retail Sales data keep hopes for a BoC rate cut alive. The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape. Canada’s political crisis peaked in late 2024 with a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leading to snap elections and a weakened Liberal minority government. Policy uncertainty and economic challenges dominate 2025’s outlook, raising concerns over market stability and investor confidence. The BoC is set to continue easing interest rates through 2025, at least at a faster pace than the Fed is expected to, which could apply pressure on CAD’s already-rising rate differential. SUPPORT 1.36991 SUPPORT 1.36739 SUPPORT 1.36495 RESISTANCE 1.37346 RESISTANCE 1.37455
Short
by Mark804