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Usdcadshort

USDCAD plunges as BOC vs Fed divergence grows! Can it continue?USDCAD has broken sharply lower following Canada's surprise jobs blowout on Friday, with the pair now pricing in a divergence: the Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates Wednesday, while the Fed is expected to cut. Canada added 54,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate plunged to 6.5%, taking a BOC cut off the table. Meanwhile, the Fed is 90% priced to cut by 25bps on Wednesday, narrowing the rate differential and weakening the US dollar against the loonie. Key drivers Canada jobs report beat expectations with +54k positions (vs expected loss), unemployment fell to 6.5% from 6.9% — three straight months of gains totalling 181k jobs.​ BOC decision this week virtually certain to hold at 2.25% after cutting in October and signalling the easing cycle is likely over.​ Fed FOMC decision on Wednesday priced in at 90% odds for a 25bps cut to 3.75–4%, the third consecutive cut driven by cooling US labour and dovish Fed commentary.​ Technical: USDCAD corrected to 50% Fibonacci (1.4140–60) of the 1.4790–1.3543 impulse leg and is now breaking down in a potential head and shoulders pattern with neckline at 1.3543. Downside targets: 1.3370–1.3396 (61.8% extension + 50% retracement confluence), 1.3068 (61.8% retracement), and 1.2895 (100% extension full measured move). Risk scenario: Neckline hold above 1.3543 could see bounce back toward 1.36 or 1.43, but below 1.4140, the path of least resistance is lower. Are you trading the USDCAD breakdown? Share your head and shoulders setups in the comments and follow for more central bank divergence and technical trade ideas. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
USDCAD - Breakout Will Flip the Trend BullishUSDCAD has been sliding inside a well-defined descending channel, completing a full five-wave drop toward the support zone. The structure from the top looks corrective rather than impulsive. That means the downtrend is weakening as it reaches its final leg. Your count shows Wave 3 finishing at the dashed red line zone, followed by a small Wave 4 bounce, and now the market is pushing into the last Wave 5. This final drop is expected to target the Fibonacci levels near 1.3915 and 1.3895 . Nothing suggests strength until those levels are tested. The price is still trapped inside the downward channel, and every bounce has been getting sold. That confirms sellers are still in control for now. Wave (C) is close to completion, but buyers haven’t proven anything yet. The bullish outlook only becomes valid after a clean breakout above the channel. Without that break, any upside move is just noise inside a bearish structure. The breakout must hold with a higher low to confirm a trend reversal. If the channel breaks decisively, a strong bullish reversal toward 1.40+ becomes possible. The entire structure suggests the downtrend is aging, so a major upside swing is likely once sellers exhaust. Until then, downside targets remain open and caution is necessary. Stay Tuned! @Money_Dictators
by Money_Dictators
1
USD/CAD Price Outlook – Trade Setup📊 Technical Structure OANDA:USDCAD USD/CAD is trading flat around 1.3950, holding below the 1.3966–1.3975 Resistance Zone, where repeated rejections keep the short-term bias tilted to the downside. The pair continues to oscillate within a compressed structure, failing to sustain any break above resistance, while the 1.3928–1.3937 Support Zone remains untested below. As long as price stays under the resistance band, the structure favours another push lower toward support. A clean hourly close above 1.3975 would invalidate the bearish setup and shift momentum back upward. 🎯 Trade Setup Entry: 1.3966 – 1.3975 Stop Loss: 1.3980 Take Profit 1: 1.3937 Take Profit 2: 1.3928 Risk–Reward Ratio: Approximately 1 : 2.5 Bearish structure remains valid below 1.3975. A breakout above this level invalidates the setup. 🌐 Macro Background USD/CAD trades in a tight range ahead of Canada’s November employment report. Markets expect the Unemployment Rate to rise to 7%, signalling slower labour-market conditions and increasing the likelihood that the Bank of Canada (BoC) could extend its easing cycle at next week’s policy meeting. Soft Canadian data would generally weaken the CAD. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains subdued as traders firmly price in a 25 bps Fed rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a cut stands near 87%. Weakening labour-market indicators in the US and expectations that tariff-driven inflation is non-persistent add to the dovish pressure on the USD. Overall, both currencies face macro headwinds, but the technical picture for USD/CAD favours a downside continuation toward support unless Canada’s jobs report surprises significantly. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone: 1.3966 – 1.3975 Support Zone: 1.3928 – 1.3937 Structure Break (Invalidation): 1.3980 Targets: 1.3937 / 1.3928 📌 Trade Summary USD/CAD remains capped beneath the resistance zone, preserving a short-term bearish structure. The preferred approach is to sell into 1.3966–1.3975, targeting a move back toward 1.3928–1.3937 support. A sustained move above 1.3980 cancels the setup. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Short
by ATFX_Global
USDCAD FRGNT RECAP + 4% / + 18 % - Q4 | W48 | Y25 |📅 Q4 | W48 | Y25 | 📊 USDCAD FRGNT RECAP + 4% / + 18 % 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀
Short
by JCFRGNT
USDCAD 1H Bearish setupPrice is rejecting the upper volatility band and struggling to hold above the short-term EMA cluster. Market structure is showing lower highs and repeated failures at the 1.41 zone, adding to bearish confluence. I’m looking for a downside continuation with these Fibonacci extension targets: 🔻 TP1 – 38.2%: ~1.4090 🔻 TP2 – 61.8%: ~1.4086 🔻 TP3 – 100%: ~1.4081 Stop sits above the recent rejection wick. As long as price stays under the EMA cloud and fails to reclaim 1.4105, the bearish scenario remains valid.
Short
by VisionaryInsights
USDCAD H4 | Bearish Reaction off Key ResistanceMomentum: Bearish Price is currently within the bearish ichimoku cloud. Sell entry: 1.4095 - Pullback resistance - 127.2% Fib extension Stop Loss: 1.4142 - Multi Swing high resistance Take Profit: 1.4054 - Pullback support High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com/en ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
Short
by Tradu
USD/CAD: Wave of Destruction or Dollar RevivalUSD/CAD: Wave of Destruction or Dollar Revival 📈 Possible Scenarios for the Week Bearish Scenario (Main Scenario): Price breaks below ~1.3777 Wave (5) is developing → possible decline to ~1.3570–1.3425 Corrective (Bullish) Scenario: USD/CAD holds current support A corrective wave upward is developing to ~1.3970–1.4150 Consolidation: Range between ~1.3777 and ~1.3970 Prices are gaining strength before the next impulse ✅ Conclusion USD/CAD could see significant movement in the coming week—the pair is at a crossroads: either the major bearish impulse will continue, or an upward correction will begin. Key levels: 1.3777 (support) and 1.3970 (resistance) When trading, it's worth watching for confirmation of the wave structure and price reaction at the designated levels.
by Trade_Hive_Signals
USD/CAD - Fundamental Drives (13.11.2025)🧠 Setup Overview OANDA:USDCAD USD/CAD continues to face strong rejection from the resistance zone, with price failing multiple times to break above the 1.4020–1.4045 supply area. The market structure remains bearish as the pair forms lower highs and struggles to sustain upside momentum. With fundamentals also favoring CAD strength, the downside scenario remains more probable. 📊 Trading Plan🔻 Sell Bias Look for bearish confirmation near or below the resistance zone Continuation to the downside expected toward key support levels 🎯 Targets: 1st Support: 1.3969 2nd Support: 1.3950 🔰 Resistance Zone: 1.4020 – 1.4045 ⚡ Fundamental Updates (Today – 13 Nov 2025) 1️⃣ Bank of Canada (BoC) signaled no further interest rate cuts, which strengthened the CAD. • A stable or moderately hawkish BoC typically supports CAD appreciation. 2️⃣ US Treasury yields continue to fall as markets increase bets on the Federal Reserve easing policy in the coming months. • Lower yields = weaker USD, helping push USD/CAD lower. 📌 High Impact Event Today: USD - CPI (Inflation Rate) → A softer CPI reading could accelerate USD weakness. #USDCAD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #ResistanceZone #FXMarket #FundamentalAnalysis #ChartPatterns #KABHI_TA_TRADING #ChartsDontLieTradersDontQuit #USD #CAD #TradingView #ForexSignals #BearishSetup #IntradayTrading ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for education only. It is not financial advice. Always apply proper risk management and trade based on your own confirmation. 💬 Support My Work ❤️ If this analysis helps you —👉 LIKE 👍 👉 COMMENT 💬 👉 FOLLOW 🔔 Your support motivates more daily chart breakdowns and setups!
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
27
There is potential for a correction in the coming months.We are entering one of the most exciting market phases: the start of new major impulse waves in various currency pairs. For the USD/CAD pair, the corrective phase is coming to an end, and the next major move is forming. What happens next could define opportunities for the next 3–6 months. Additional Context Analysis: This analysis uses Elliott Wave terminology, which divides market movements into impulse waves (movements in line with the trend) and corrective waves (movements against the trend). The key message is that the recent USD/CAD price volatility is merely a correction ahead of a much larger and more profitable impulse move.
Short
by NouzTrader
USD/CAD) Bearish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/CAD on the 1-hour timeframe. Let’s break down the analysis idea clearly: --- l Market Context The overall trend is bearish, as price is trading below both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA, which are sloping downward. The recent bullish correction appears to have been a retracement within the broader downtrend. --- Key Technical Insights 1. Bearish Structure: Price broke below a previous low and confirmed a lower low (LL). A small bearish flag or rising channel formed during the retracement — a common continuation pattern. 2. Supply Zone (Blue Box): This zone represents the previous demand turned supply, where sellers re-entered strongly. Price tapped into this area and sharply rejected, confirming supply dominance. 3. EMA Confluence: Both EMA(50) and EMA(200) are above price, acting as dynamic resistance. The rejection from the blue zone occurred around EMA confluence — a strong bearish confirmation signal. --- Projected Price Action The structure suggests a minor pullback (to form a lower high) before continuing downward. The drawn path shows price retesting a small intraday resistance area before resuming the drop. Target Point: 1.39689 — near the next structural low / liquidity area. --- Trade Idea Summary Bias: Bearish continuation Entry Zone: 1.4010–1.4030 area (retest of minor resistance or broken structure) Target: 1.3969 Stop-Loss: Above 1.4048 (above supply zone / EMAs) Risk/Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:2.5 to 1:3 potential setup Mr SMC Trading point --- Concept Summary This setup follows Smart Money Concepts (SMC) logic: Break of structure → Retracement into supply → Continuation in direction of the higher timeframe trend. --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
9
USDCAD Eye a Deeper Pullback as Oil & Dollar Momentum CoolsUSDCAD, After a sharp rebound toward 1.4020, USD/CAD is showing signs of exhaustion as selling pressure re-emerges at the top of the recent range. With oil prices stabilizing near mid-60s and the Bank of Canada signaling patience amid weak but steady domestic data, the pair faces the risk of another leg lower toward 1.39 and possibly 1.38 if U.S. data underperforms. Current Bias Bearish – USDCAD is holding below key resistance at 1.4030, with price action suggesting a potential correction toward 1.3910 and 1.3810 in the short term. Key Fundamental Drivers Oil Recovery: Crude oil has rebounded from recent lows, supporting the Canadian dollar and easing upward pressure on USD/CAD. Divergent Central Bank Tone: The Fed remains cautious on cuts, while the BoC maintains a “wait and assess” stance, reflecting a balanced policy gap that limits upside for USD/CAD. Data Softness: Canada’s growth data remains sluggish, but labor market strength offsets deeper pessimism. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer and manufacturing resilience keeps USD demand steady. Yield Differentials: Modest narrowing between U.S. and Canadian yields favors mild CAD appreciation if risk sentiment holds stable. Macro Context U.S. economy continues to show solid momentum, though some leading indicators are flattening. Fed officials, including Logan and Schmid, have signaled that rates are restrictive enough but still not ready for aggressive cuts. In Canada, Q2 GDP showed contraction, but employment and wage data suggest the downturn is shallow. The BoC remains cautious, preferring stability over immediate easing. Oil’s moderate rebound and stable export demand provide underlying CAD support. Globally, energy market stabilization and China’s steady PMI data are limiting risk-off flows, reducing USD’s haven premium. Primary Risk to the Trend A sudden decline in oil prices or a hawkish shift from the Fed could reignite USD strength and push USD/CAD back toward 1.41+. Conversely, an unexpected BoC hawkish tone or strong Canadian employment data could accelerate the downside. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI data Canada Employment Report and Ivey PMI BoC’s Business Outlook Survey Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD typically acts as a lagger to broader USD trends but a leader among commodity-linked currencies (AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD). Oil and Treasury yield moves drive its direction, while DXY strength or weakness sets the overall bias. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3910, 1.3810 Resistance Levels: 1.4030, 1.4080 Stop Loss (SL): 1.4070 (above structural resistance) Take Profit (TP): 1.3810 (lower support confluence) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USDCAD carries a bearish bias as short-term momentum fades below 1.4030. The combination of firmer oil prices, a steady BoC stance, and a cooling dollar backdrop sets the stage for a pullback toward 1.3910 and potentially 1.3810. Traders should watch for confirmation from upcoming U.S. ISM and jobs data, which could either reinforce the correction or restore USD dominance. A stop above 1.4070 helps protect against sudden yield-driven spikes, while 1.3810 remains the key target zone aligned with both technical structure and the evolving macro narrative.
Short
by ultreosforex
7
USDCAD: Momentum Falters as Bears Eye Deeper CorrectionAfter a strong run higher, USDCAD is now showing signs of exhaustion. Price action has slipped below a short-term trendline, and with CAD fundamentals anchored by oil prices, the pair looks increasingly vulnerable to a pullback. The recent stalling near 1.4070 suggests buyers may be losing grip, opening the door for sellers to drive a corrective wave lower. Current Bias Bearish – momentum has shifted, with lower highs forming and trendline support already breached. Key Fundamental Drivers USD: Fed officials remain cautious on cutting rates too quickly, but sticky inflation risks could limit downside in the dollar. CAD: Supported by oil market stability and resilient wage data, even as broader growth remains soft. Relative Outlook: CAD gains the upper hand in commodity-driven environments, particularly when oil stays bid. Macro Context Interest Rates: Fed is on a slower path to easing compared to the BoC, but markets have priced in eventual US rate cuts. Economic Growth: US growth is slowing but still outpacing Canada, though oil revenues balance the picture for CAD. Commodity Flows: Oil prices remain the most critical support for CAD. Any extended rally in energy prices strengthens downside bias in USDCAD. Geopolitical Themes: US trade tensions and global policy risks feed USD volatility, while CAD’s link to oil offers a clearer directional driver. Primary Risk to the Trend A sudden drop in oil prices or a hawkish Fed surprise could lift USD and break bearish momentum in USDCAD. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event US PCE inflation and labor market data. Canada employment and CPI releases. Weekly oil inventories and OPEC+ commentary. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USDCAD often trades as a lagger, following USD moves against majors like EURUSD or DXY. It also shadows oil fluctuations, making CAD more reactive than proactive. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3910, 1.3818, 1.3738 Resistance Levels: 1.4029, 1.4079 Stop Loss (SL): 1.4079 Take Profit (TP): 1.3818 (first), 1.3738 (extended) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USDCAD is leaning bearish after breaking below its short-term trendline, with price action suggesting a correction toward 1.3910 and potentially 1.3818. The trade setup favors shorts with SL above 1.4079 to protect against Fed-driven dollar spikes. CAD strength remains tied to oil, so energy headlines are crucial watchpoints. While USD remains fundamentally supported, the short-term flow favors sellers, making this a correction opportunity rather than a trend reversal.
Short
by ultreosforex
Smart Money Levels on USD/CAD – What’s Next for the Loonie?“USD/CAD – The LOONIE Profit Playbook (Swing/Day Trade) 🚀💰” 📋 Description: Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG’s), Here’s the plan for our favourite cross, USD/CAD – “The Loonie”: Plan: Bullish bias (with a setup for a potential bearish flip if you like to dance with the other side) Entry (Bullish): Pullback-1: 1.39400 Pullback-2: 1.39000 Enter at a dip into one of those levels, let the market breathe, then ride the wave. Stop Loss: This is Thief SL at 1.38800 — place your stop after the pullback level you used. Target (Bullish): Our target zone: 1.41000 — watch for strong resistance, overbought signals & a possible trap. Escape with profit when you see the signs. Entry (Bearish): If you prefer the short side: you may enter anywhere, but keep sharp eyes on pullback zones and the target levels below. Bearish Targets: 1.39400 & 1.39000 🔍 More to watch – Related Pairs & Correlations: OANDA:USDCHF (often moves inversely with USD/CAD) OANDA:AUDUSD (commodity-linked crosses, relevant when commodities shift) OANDA:CADJPY (Canadian dollar strength/weakness can show up across CAD pairs) Watch how CAD strength or USD strength flows across pairs. When CAD weakens, USD/CAD rises — when CAD strengthens, USD/CAD dips. ⚠️ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG’s), I am not recommending you set only my stop-loss or take-profit rules. It’s your own choice — make money, then take money — at your own risk. ✨ Footer: “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” 📌 Disclaimer: This is Thief style trading strategy just for fun. #USDCAD #Forex #SwingTrade #DayTrade #Loonie #ForexSetup #ThiefTrader #TradingViewIdeas #ForexAnalysis #CurrencyPairs
by The-Thief
2