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Usdcadshort

USDCAD (Daily) – Swing Short Setup📉 USDCAD (Daily) – Swing Short Setup USDCAD has tapped into a Fair Value Gap (FVG) while simultaneously sweeping liquidity above recent highs (~1.3929). This classic combination of a liquidity grab + imbalance fill points toward bearish continuation. 🔑 Why bearish? • Liquidity above 1.3929 has been swept, leaving a liquidity trap behind. • Price reacted inside the FVG, a common reversal zone after a sweep. • Bearish order flow suggests price is likely to target liquidity pools below ~1.3538. 📌 Trade Plan: • Entry: ~1.3853 (short) • Stop: Above 1.3929 • Target: 1.3538 (next liquidity pool) • R:R: ~1:4 (risking ~75 pips to capture ~315 pips) Again, this is a swing setup on the daily timeframe – patience is required, but the structure supports downside expansion. ⚠️ Risk management is the key.
Short
by AahmedD_98
USDCAD Double Top Signals a Potential BreakdownUSDCAD pair is testing a critical resistance area near 1.3830 after a strong rebound. But the price structure is beginning to flash signs of exhaustion. With repeated rejections and a clear double-top pattern forming, the setup favors a bearish move. If momentum turns, we could see a meaningful correction toward the 1.3730 support zone, with deeper downside risk into mid-September. Current Bias Bearish rejection at resistance, structure favors downside continuation. Key Fundamental Drivers Canada: Weak August jobs report (unemployment 7.1%, wages cooling) raised BoC cut expectations, pressuring CAD. But oil prices (Brent ~$65) limit the downside risk, giving CAD some commodity support. U.S.: Weaker jobs (+142k NFP, unemployment 4.3%) keeps Fed cuts on the table, capping USD upside. Core PCE sticky at 2.9%, but inflation trend is moderating. Macro Context Interest Rates: Fed expected to cut in coming months; BoC markets price ~90% chance of a September cut. Economic Growth: U.S. slowing but still resilient, Canada contracting (Q2 GDP −0.4% q/q). Commodities: Oil’s soft rebound provides CAD with some stability. Geopolitics: Trade tensions (U.S. tariffs, China-Russia bond coordination) keep USD supported as a defensive hedge. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp oil sell-off would weaken CAD and trigger USD/CAD upside. U.S. CPI surprise to the upside could reprice Fed expectations, boosting USD. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event U.S. CPI (this week): Will decide Fed cut timing. BoC September rate decision: High probability of a cut, market focus on forward guidance. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD is typically a lagger — following USD direction (via Fed expectations) and CAD flows (via oil). It often mirrors oil price action and diverges from USD/JPY, reflecting risk sentiment shifts. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3732, 1.3585 Resistance Levels: 1.3830, 1.3875 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3875 Take Profit (TP): 1.3732 (first), 1.3585 (extended) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is leaning bearish after failing to break cleanly above 1.3830. Fundamentals point to a tug-of-war between dovish BoC expectations and weaker U.S. data, but the chart structure favors downside into 1.3732 and potentially 1.3585. My stop loss sits above 1.3875 to protect against a breakout. Watch U.S. CPI as the key driver: a hotter print could revive USD strength, while a softer read could accelerate CAD gains. Oil’s stability remains a secondary but important factor for CAD resilience.
Short
by ultreosforex
USD/CAD – Bulls Eyeing a Bounce from Key Demand ZoneAfter an aggressive correction from the 1.3920 highs, USD/CAD has now landed on a heavy demand zone near 1.3720 – 1.3740. This area has proven to be a launchpad for rallies in recent weeks, and price is once again testing buyers’ conviction. With both technical structure and macro fundamentals in play, this zone could determine the next major swing. Current Bias Bullish bias as long as 1.3720 holds, with upside potential toward 1.3818 and 1.3920 supply. Key Fundamental Drivers USD: Supported by sticky inflation (Core PCE 2.9% y/y) and resilient consumer spending (+0.5% m/m). Fed rate cut expectations have softened, keeping the dollar supported. CAD: Weighed down by weaker Canadian GDP (Q2 annualized -1.6%, q/q -0.4%) and slowing momentum in domestic growth. Oil remains weak near $64, offering little support to the loonie. Macro Context Rates: The Fed remains cautious with cuts, while the BoC faces pressure from economic contraction. Interest rate divergence favors the USD. Growth Trends: US growth remains firmer compared to Canada’s slowdown. Commodities: Oil’s weakness is a drag on CAD, making the currency vulnerable. Geopolitics: Ongoing tariff disputes and Middle East energy risks keep USD demand steady as a safe haven, further weighing on CAD. Primary Risk to the Trend A deeper selloff in USD on unexpected Fed dovishness or a sharp rebound in oil prices (driven by geopolitical shocks or supply cuts) could strengthen CAD and invalidate the bullish setup. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event US ISM PMI & NFP (this week): Key drivers for Fed policy path. Canada Jobs Report (Friday): Critical for CAD sentiment after the weak GDP print. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD tends to lag oil and broader USD moves. It often follows the dollar’s momentum, while oil price shocks can lead moves on CAD. Currently, the pair is USD-led, making it more reactive to Fed data than Canadian domestic flows. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3720 – 1.3740 (demand zone), 1.3660. Resistance Levels: 1.3818 (mid-resistance), 1.3918 – 1.3925 (major supply). Stop Loss (SL): 1.3650 (below demand zone invalidation). Take Profit (TP): 1.3818 (first target), 1.3920 (extended target). Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is sitting at a key demand zone around 1.3720 – 1.3740, where buyers need to defend the trend. The bias remains bullish above this level, with upside targets at 1.3818 and 1.3920. A break below 1.3650 would invalidate the long setup and expose further downside. With US data in focus and CAD weighed down by weak GDP and soft oil prices, the pair is more likely to follow USD momentum in the near term. Traders should watch NFP and Canada’s jobs data closely, as these will dictate whether this bounce carries to new highs or fades into deeper consolidation.
Long
by ultreosforex
8
Is the USDCAD Rally Overextended Into Key Resistance Levels?The USDCAD is currently testing a formidable resistance zone following a period of strong bullish momentum. The primary catalyst for this upward repricing has been a clear divergence in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is maintaining its hawkish bias, supported by persistent U.S. inflation data, which provides underlying strength to the dollar. 🦅 Conversely, moderating CPI in Canada has allowed the Bank of Canada to adopt a more dovish tone, creating a fundamental headwind for the loonie. 🍁 From a technical standpoint, the rally appears overextended, with momentum indicators suggesting the pair is now in overbought territory. 🛑 We're observing signs of price exhaustion as it challenges this key multi-month resistance level. Institutional sentiment is consequently shifting towards caution. The key strategic question now is whether we see a confirmed breakout on significant volume or a mean reversion scenario. At these levels, the risk-reward profile for new long positions is becoming unfavorable without further confirmation. I'm monitoring for either a decisive close above this zone or for signs of a corrective pullback. Stay sharp.
by fxtraderanthony
USDCAD Heading Towards Important Resistance D1✏️The old USDCAD analysis strategy was correct when the uptrend returned to the pair. 1.399 is the target of BUY signals when this zone accumulates a lot of selling momentum. The Breakout zone of 1.375 is considered a strong support zone forming a wide price range of the pair. The trading strategy is focused on the two resistance and support zones above. 📉 Key Levels BUY trigger Strong support zone 1.375 SELL trigger Strong resistance zone 1.399 Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
by VHT_Trader
10
USD/CAD - Ascending Triangle (18.08.2025)The USD/CAD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Ascending Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.3774 2nd Support – 1.3755 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
26
USD/CAD) Bearish Trend Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/CAD on the 4H timeframe, using Smart Money Concepts (SMC). --- 🔍 Technical Breakdown – USD/CAD (4H) 1. FVG (Fair Value Gap) / Supply Zone Price is currently trading inside a supply/FVG zone (highlighted in yellow at the top). Market is reacting to this imbalance area where institutional selling pressure is expected. 2. BOS (Break of Structure) Earlier, price made a Break of Structure (BOS) on the downside, confirming a bearish shift in market structure. The current bullish retracement into the supply zone is likely just a pullback before continuation down. 3. Bearish Rejection Expected From the chart, price is anticipated to reject from the supply zone and start a bearish move. Projection shows a strong drop toward the target support zone (SSS). 4. Target Point Final downside target is marked at 1.35847, aligning with the Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) / Support zone (SSS). This zone is a strong liquidity pool where price may hunt stop losses before reversing. --- Summary Bias: Bearish Current Price: 1.38147 Supply Zone (FVG): 1.3800 – 1.3850 (reaction expected) Target Zone (SSS): 1.35847 Setup: Look for short entries inside supply zone with confirmation. Mr SMC Trading point This is a classic SMC setup: BOS Pullback to FVG Liquidity hunt Target Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
USDCAD 4-Hour Analysis – Bulls and Bears Battle for ControlCurrent Price: 1.37706 Timeframe: 4 Hours Technical Indicators Overview SMA (9-period): Price is hovering around the short-term moving average, signaling indecision in momentum. RSI (14): Currently near the 50 level, showing a neutral momentum—neither overbought nor oversold. Key Resistance: 1.3800 – A psychological and technical barrier tested multiple times. Key Support: 1.3700 – A level where buyers previously stepped in to prevent further decline. Price Action Summary USDCAD recently saw a strong bullish move towards the 1.3900 area but quickly reversed, pulling back below the 1.3800 mark. Since then, price action has been choppy, suggesting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. On the 4H chart, the SMA 9 is acting as a dynamic pivot, with candles frequently crossing above and below it. This behavior often precedes a breakout, but direction confirmation is still lacking. RSI Insights The RSI remains neutral, around 50, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressures. A move above 60 could invite bullish momentum, while a drop below 40 may trigger further selling. Potential Scenarios Bullish Breakout: If price breaks and closes above 1.3800, the next upside target could be 1.3850–1.3900, where previous highs lie. Bearish Reversal: Failure to hold above 1.3750 could open the door for a move towards 1.3700, and below that, 1.3650. Conclusion USDCAD is in a consolidation phase, awaiting a catalyst for a decisive breakout. Traders should watch the 1.3800 resistance and 1.3750 support for clues on the next directional move.
Short
by forexinworld
USDCAD Prepaing to Gilde Down ??USDCAD has been struglling to move up, All the monthly and Bi-Monthly analysis show down including D1. Check your support and resistances and open positions accordingly. Wait for Price Again to preform and see the strong breakouts. Disclaimer: The content presented in this IMAGE is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Trading foreign exchange (Forex) on margin involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The use of leverage can work both for and against you. Before deciding to participate in the Forex market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance. There is a possibility that you may incur a loss of some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be fully aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from a licensed and independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always trade responsibly.
Short
by forexnawaab
USDCAD - Big Picture and MomentumBig Picture and Momentum USD/CAD is trading comfortably above the 50-day EMA (~1.3728) and above the 9-day EMA, indicating continued bullish momentum. The 14-day RSI is above the 50 level, confirming the positive market sentiment. Key Support and Resistance Resistance: 1.3770–1.3798 range is the current target, a break of which could open the way to the January high around 1.4016. Support: 50-day EMA (~1.3728) is the first line of defense. Next is the 9-day EMA (~1.3679). A further weakening could see a decline to 1.3560, and a strong correction could see a decline to the February 2024 lows (~1.3420). Market Behavior Scenarios Bullish scenario: holding above EMA with RSI > 50 creates good conditions for a move up to 1.3770-1.3800, and then to 1.4016, with increasing momentum. Bearish scenario: falling below EMA, especially below 1.3679, can lead to a deeper decline - to 1.3560 and then to 1.3420. Recommendations for traders Long position: can be considered for entry when holding above 1.3728, with a target of 1.3770-1.3800, and a stop just below the EMA. Short position: justified when falling below 1.3728-1.3679, with a target of 1.3560, and a stop just above the EMA level.
Short
by Trade_Hive_Signals
USD/CAD(20250806)Today's AnalysisMarket News: The US non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in July from 50.8 in June, below the expected 51.5. The ISM New Orders Index fell to 50.3 in July from 51.3 in June, with export orders contracting for the fourth time in five months. Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Levels: 1.3781 Support and Resistance Levels: 1.3828 1.3810 1.3799 1.3763 1.3751 1.3734 Trading Strategy: On a breakout above 1.3781, consider a buy entry, with the first target at 1.3799. On a breakout above 1.3763, consider a sell entry, with the first target at 1.3751.
Short
by NicolaZhu
Uptrend is coming. Opportunity for buyers✏️ OANDA:USDCAD is trading close to the upper boundary of the triangle pattern. There is a high possibility that the current bullish momentum will break the upper boundary and form an uptrend for the USDCAD pair. The important price zone for the sellers at the moment is 1.075. If the buyers are strong enough to push the price above 1.075, the sellers will only be really interested in the price zone of 1.340, the high of the pair in May. 📉 Key Levels Buy trigger: Reject and Trading above 1.365 BUY DCA Break 1.375 Target: 1.400 Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
Long
by VHT_Trader
4
USDCAD SELLUSD/CAD rallies to 1.3680 as the market focuses on a hawkish Fed The US Dollar extends its recovery for the second consecutive day, supported by strong US data. Upbeat US business activity and Jobless Claims support the Fed's "wait and see" rhetoric. In Canada, the weak Retail Sales data keep hopes for a BoC rate cut alive. The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape. Canada’s political crisis peaked in late 2024 with a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leading to snap elections and a weakened Liberal minority government. Policy uncertainty and economic challenges dominate 2025’s outlook, raising concerns over market stability and investor confidence. The BoC is set to continue easing interest rates through 2025, at least at a faster pace than the Fed is expected to, which could apply pressure on CAD’s already-rising rate differential. SUPPORT 1.36991 SUPPORT 1.36739 SUPPORT 1.36495 RESISTANCE 1.37346 RESISTANCE 1.37455
Short
by Mark804
USDCAD BUYUSD/CAD returns below 1.3600, with YTD lows, at 1.3540 coming into view The US Dollar extends its decline for the fourth consecutive day, with the Canadian Dollar supported by a brighter market mood, as the trade deal between the US and Japan provided some certainty about the outlook of global trade and boosted hopes of more such deals. In the USD/CAD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Joshua Gibson suggests uncertainty and risk-off sentiment could strengthen the US Dollar (USD) early in 2025, while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is expected to weaken in the first quarter. However, CAD investors may reassess prospects as the year progresses, focusing on the Federal Reserve (Fed) - Bank of Canada (BoC) policy dynamics. From a technical point of view, USD/CAD could face a technical ceiling near the 1.4400 level after the Canadian Dollar's sharp 8.5% decline in 2024 sent the pair to 56-month highs. However, technical indicators like the MACD suggest caution, as short positions may only become viable once clear sell signals emerge, likely during the first quarter. SUPPORT 1.361 SUPPORT 1.353 SUPPORT 1.361 RESISTANCE 1.357 RESISTANCE 1.355
Short
by Mark804
4
USDCAD SELLUSD/CAD retakes 1.3700, eyes multi-week top amid a broadly firmer USD The USD/CAD pair attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Thursday and climbs further beyond the 1.3700 mark amid a broadly firmer US Dollar. Spot prices have now reversed the previous day's retracement slide from a three-week high and seem poised to appreciate further The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape. Canada’s political crisis peaked in late 2024 with a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leading to snap elections and a weakened Liberal minority government. Policy uncertainty and economic challenges dominate 2025’s outlook, raising concerns over market stability and investor confidence. The BoC is set to continue easing interest rates through 2025, at least at a faster pace than the Fed is expected to, which could apply pressure on CAD’s already-rising rate differentia TP 1 1.37214 TP 2 1.37095 TP 3 1.36987 RESISTANCE 1.37413
Short
by Mark804
USD/CAD(20250718)Today's AnalysisMarket news: ① Kugler: It is appropriate to keep the interest rate policy stable for "a while". ② Daly: Whether to cut interest rates in July or September is not the most critical. ③ Bostic: It may be difficult to cut interest rates in the short term. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.3735 Support and resistance levels: 1.3827 1.3792 1.3770 1.3700 1.3678 1.3644 Trading strategy: If it breaks through 1.3770, consider buying in, the first target price is 1.3792 If it breaks through 1.3735, consider selling in, the first target price is 1.3700
Short
by NicolaZhu
USD/CAD(20250716)Today's AnalysisMarket news: ① The annual rate of the overall CPI in the United States in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations, and the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, in line with market expectations; the annual rate of the core CPI rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, lower than the expected 3%, but slightly higher than 2.8% last month, and the monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%. ② Interest rate futures still show that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates this month, but there is a high possibility of a 25 basis point cut in September. ③ Fed mouthpiece: The CPI report will not change the Fed's policy direction. ④ Trump: Consumer prices are low and the federal funds rate should be lowered immediately. The Fed should cut interest rates by 3 percentage points. ⑤ Fed Collins: The core inflation rate is expected to remain at about 3% by the end of the year, and the Fed should maintain active patience. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.3708 Support and resistance levels: 1.3766 1.3744 1.3730 1.3685 1.3671 1.3650 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.3730, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3744 If the price breaks through 1.3708, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3685
Short
by NicolaZhu
USDCAD LONG DAILY FORECAST Q3 D10 W28 Y25USDCAD LONG DAILY FORECAST Q3 D10 W28 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Daily Order block identified ✅4H Order Block identified ✅1H Order Block identified 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT