USDCHF Megaphone started its new Bullish Leg.The USDCHF pair has been trading within a 2-month Bullish Megaphone that was initiated after the huge 1D RSI Bullish Divergence of Higher Lows caused a market bottom in September and the price flipped the Lower Lows to Higher Lows and started rising.
Having broken above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) today, the new Bullish Leg has been confirmed and we expect it to make contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) around 0.81500.
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Usdchfsignals
USDCHF Perhaps the best buy opportunity in the market!The USDCHF pair is staging a strong bullish reversal following last week's 1W candle closing above the 1D MA100 (red trend-line). The reason is that every time in the past 3 years (since November 07 2022) the price broke and closed a week above that level, the pair rallied towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
This time is doing so also at the back of a huge 1W RSI Bullish Divergence of Higher Lows against the prices Lower Lows since April 2025.
We estimate that contact with the 1W MA200 can be achieved around $0.8800 and that is our long-term Target for USDCHF.
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USDCHF Break-out or rejection? How to trade each case.The USDCHF pair is about to hit the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 3-month Triangle pattern it's been trading in since the August 01 High.
If rejected, as long as the price is closing 1D candles below it, we expect a new Bearish Leg to start and target the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 0.79100, like the previous one did.
If however it closes a 1D candle above the Triangle, there are strong probabilities for a new long-term Channel Up pattern to prevail. In that case, we expect the rally that has already started to complete a +3.15% move (similar to the previous Bullish Leg) and target 0.81200.
The fact that the price is so close to this break-out level (the top of the Triangle) favors the use of a tight SL strategy for the short in case of a reversal to long.
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USDCHF Huge Bullish Divergence like 2020.The USDCHF pair has recently broken above its 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since March 2025, following a long-term sharp decline. The multi-year pattern is a Channel Down and the current price action is taking place right on its bottom.
At the same time, while the price is on Lower Lows, the 1W RSI has been rising on Higher Lows, showcasing a huge Bullish Divergence. The last time we saw this happening at the bottom of this Channel Down, was between August - December 2020. That was the pattern's previous Lower Low bottom formation and after the 1D MA100 break-out took place, the pair started its new Bullish Leg that exceeded the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, while smashing through its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, we have turned bullish long-term on USDCHF, targeting the 0.618 Fib at 0.86750, expecting a contact with its 1W MA200 there.
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USDCHF is about to enter a new multi-month Bull Cycle.The USDCHF pair has been under heavy pressure all year long since the January 13 2025 High rejection on its 2-year Resistance Zone.
However, for the first time in years, its 1W RSI is on Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows since April, which is a massive Bullish Divergence. This is an occurrence that technically emerges on market bottoms and is a huge Buy Signal.
Our confirmation signal will be once the price breaks above its shorter term 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which has been intact as a Resistance since March 03. If broken, we will target a potential 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) test at 0.88000. The 1W MA200 is critical as a Resistance because it has formed the last 4 massive High rejections since February 27 2023.
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USDCHF Strong buy signal on a 2024 fractal.Last time we looked at the USDCHF pair (June 19, see chart below), we took the most optimal sell at the top of the Channel Down, which easily hit the 0.80565 Target:
This time we are getting a strong buy signal as not only is the price supported on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in what seems like a Bull Flag, but also the 1D RSI is on a huge Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows), similar to he August 2024 pattern.
That sequence rose all the way to the upper Resistance (even broke it), so we do expect the pair to resume the rally and Target 0.84750. That might also be just in time to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 03.
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USD/CHF: Order Block Rejection Signals Downtrend ContinuationFenzoFxโUSD/CHF started a new bearish wave after it reached the order block at approximately 0.817. Today, the pair is filling the bearish fair value gap by approaching the immediate resistance at 0.8113.
From a technical perspective, if this level holds, USD/CHF will likely resume its bearish trajectory. In this scenario, the price has the potential to target the 'buy-side' liquidity zone at 0.7955.
USD/CHF Tests Critical Resistance at 0.804FenzoFxโUSD/CHF is testing the critical resistance level at 0.804, a demand zone that coincides with the descending trendline.
A new bearish wave would form if the price remains below this level. In this scenario, USD/CHF will likely retest the previous support level at 0.787.
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USDCHF Channel Down reached its top. Sell signal.The USDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the May 12 High and today the price hit its top again. Trading above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but still below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), that maintains the medium-term bearish trend.
This is a strong bearish signal as it technically indicates that the new Bearish Leg is about to start. Support 1 at 0.80565 is a low risk Target. The previous 2 Bearish Legs have both gone for -3.40% declines, so technically the downside can be extended beyond Support 1.
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USDCHF: Correctional Movement Ahead?! ๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐ญ
USDCHF may continue a correctional movement after
a release of the today's US CPI data.
A technical price action confirmation that I spotted is a
valid Change of Character CHoCH on an hourly time frame.
We can expect a bearish continuation to 0.8358
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USDCHF Confirmed bottom Buy SignalLast time we looked at the USDCHF pair was three months ago (February 05 2025, see chart below) and it gave us the best sell signal possible, easily hitting our 0.8400 Target:
This time the long-term price action has transitioned into a Megaphone pattern, whose bottom was reached on the April 21 Low. At the same time the 1D RSI hit the 18.90 Support, which has been the Ultimate Buy Signal for the August 05 2024 and December 28 2023 Lows.
Since the price has been rebounding since, we view this as a confirmed buy signal and the start of the Megaphone's new Bullish Leg. The previous two rose by +10% and +10.67% respectively so a mere repeat of the +10% rally, will hit at least 0.88000.
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USDCHF: Your Next Bearish Signal ๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐ญ
USDCHF is consolidating after a massive selloff that we saw last week.
The price formed inside bar candlestick pattern and is currently
stuck within the range of the mother's bar.
Your next confirmation to sell will be a violation and a candle close
below 0.8098.
With a high probability, the pair will continue falling then
and reach at least 0.8 psychological level.
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USD/CHF "The Swissy" Forex Market Heist Plan Bearish๐Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!๐
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, ๐ค ๐ฐ๐ฑโ๐ค๐ฑโ๐
Based on ๐ฅThief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis๐ฅ, here is our master plan to heist the USD/CHF "The Swissy" Forex Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. ๐๐ธBook Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.๐ช๐๐
Entry ๐ : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss ๐: Thief SL placed at 0.90500 (swing Trade) Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target ๐ฏ: 0.88000 (or) Escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note ๐ : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money ๐ฐ.
๐ฐ๐๏ธFundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
USD/CHF "The Swissy" Forex Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors.
๐Fundamental Analysis
The USD/CHF pair is influenced by:
Interest Rate Differential: The difference between the Federal Reserve's interest rates and the Swiss National Bank's interest rates.
Economic Growth: The US GDP growth rate and the Swiss GDP growth rate.
Inflation Rates: The US inflation rate and the Swiss inflation rate.
๐Macroeconomic Analysis
Key macroeconomic indicators to watch:
US GDP Growth Rate: Expected to slow down in 2025.
Swiss GDP Growth Rate: Expected to remain stable in 2025.
US Inflation Rate: Expected to decrease in 2025.
Swiss Inflation Rate: Expected to remain low in 2025.
๐COT Data Analysis
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows:
Net Long Positions: Decreased by 10,000 contracts.
Net Short Positions: Increased by 5,000 contracts.
๐Market Sentimental Analysis
Market sentiment for USD/CHF is:
Bearish: 55% of investors expect the pair to fall.
Bullish: 30% of investors expect the pair to rise.
Neutral: 15% of investors remain neutral.
๐Positioning Analysis
Traders are advised to:
Consider short-term investments: As the USD/CHF pair is expected to experience high volatility.
Monitor market news: As central bank decisions and global economic data may impact the pair.
๐Quantitative Analysis
Technical indicators show:
Moving Averages: The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are indicating a bearish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is indicating an oversold condition.
๐Intermarket Analysis
The USD/CHF pair is highly correlated with:
EUR/USD: A stronger euro may boost the Swiss franc against the US dollar.
USD/JPY: A weaker US dollar may boost the Swiss franc against the yen.
๐News and Events Analysis
Upcoming events that may impact the USD/CHF pair include:
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Decision: March 19, 2025
Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Decision: March 20, 2025
๐Next Trend Move
The USD/CHF pair may experience a:
Bearish move: Driven by the interest rate differential and economic growth.
๐Overall Summary Outlook
The USD/CHF pair is expected to:
Experience high volatility: Due to central bank decisions and global economic data.
Remain bearish: In the short-term, driven by the interest rate differential and economic growth.
โ ๏ธTrading Alert : News Releases and Position Management ๐ฐ ๐๏ธ ๐ซ๐
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
๐Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money ๐ฐ๐ต Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.๐๐ช๐คโค๏ธ๐๐
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned ๐ค๐ฑโ๐ค๐ค๐คฉ
USD/CHF "The Swissy" Forex Market Bearish Heist Plan๐Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!๐
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, ๐ค ๐ฐ
Based on ๐ฅThief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis๐ฅ, here is our master plan to heist the USD/CHF "The Swissy" Forex Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. ๐๐ธBe wealthy and safe trade.๐ช๐๐
Entry ๐ : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (0.90300) then make your move - Bearish profits await!"
however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high or low level should be in retest.
Stop Loss ๐: Thief SL placed at 0.90700 (swing Trade) Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target ๐ฏ: 0.89310 (or) Escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note ๐ : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money ๐ฐ.
๐ฐ๐๏ธFundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
USD/CHF "The Swissy" Forex Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors.
๐คFundamental Analysis
- The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a dovish stance, keeping interest rates negative to curb the Swiss franc's appreciation.
- The US Federal Reserve has also maintained a dovish stance, keeping interest rates low to support economic growth.
๐ดMacro Analysis
- The US economy has shown signs of slowing down, with GDP growth rate decreasing to 2.1% in Q4 2022.
- The Swiss economy has also shown signs of slowing down, with GDP growth rate decreasing to 0.9% in Q4 2022.
๐ Sentimental Analysis
- Institutional investors have a bearish sentiment towards the USD/CHF pair, with 52% being bearish.
- Hedge funds have decreased their long positions, with a net short exposure of 15%.
- Retail traders have a bullish sentiment towards the USD/CHF pair, with 55% being bullish.
๐กCOT Analysis
- The Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that large speculators have increased their short positions, with a net short exposure of 10,000 contracts.
- Commercial traders have decreased their long positions, with a net short exposure of 5,000 contracts.
๐ตPositioning
- The USD/CHF pair is experiencing a decrease in net-long exposure, which could be a sign of a potential trend reversal.
- The market positioning is also influenced by the US dollar positioning, which has seen a reduction in net-short exposure against G10 currencies.
๐ขOverall Outlook
-Based on the analysis, the USD/CHF pair is expected to move in a bearish trend, with a 55% chance of a downtrend and a 35% chance of an uptrend. However, please note that market predictions can be unpredictable and influenced by various factors.
โ ๏ธTrading Alert : News Releases and Position Management ๐ฐ ๐๏ธ ๐ซ๐
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
๐Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
๐Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
๐Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money ๐ฐ๐ต Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.๐๐ช๐คโค๏ธ๐๐
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned ๐ค๐ฑโ๐ค๐ค๐คฉ
USDCHF Be ready for these trades based on the 1D MA50.The USDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the September 06 2024 bottom. This is inside a larger Rectangle in which the pair is consolidating for the past 1.5 year.
The bottom of the Channel Up is being tested again today for the 2nd time since January 27, which was a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test. This is the key of the pair's trend technically in our opinion.
The current level being so close to the 1D MA50, is the ideal short-term buy entry to target Resistance 1 at 0.92265 on the lowest risk. If the price breaks below the 1D MA50 however, we will quickly take the minimal loss and reverse to selling the bounce near 0.9100, as this bearish break-out took place on both previous Channel Up patterns on May 15 2024 and October 19 2023.
In that case the trade will be long-term, targeting just above Support 1 at 0.84000.
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USDCHF: Bullish Move Confirmed ๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐ญ
It looks like a local correctional movement is over on USDCHF
and the pair is returning to a bullish trend.
The release of the today's US fundamentals made the pair
violate a resistance line of a narrow consolidation range on an hourly.
The price will most likely go up to 0.9007 level.
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USDCHF Short-term Channel Up targeting 0.88120The USDCHF pair is following very accurately our September 17 projection (see chart below) and is already half-way through our 0.90500 Target:
As mentioned then that was a long-term bottom buy opportunity, but that doesn't mean shorter ones don't exist on the lower time-frames. On this chart, we've identified one on the 4H time-frame where the price got rejected at the top of the October Channel Up and pulled back to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
This resembles the October 08 0.382 Fib rejection, which was also contained above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and resumed the uptrend all the way to the -0.236 Fib extension. As a result, our short-term Target is 0.88120.
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USDCHF Great long-term bottom buy opportunity.The USDCHF pair is trading considerably below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since July 04 2024, as it was on a major 5-month Bearish Leg following the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) peak and rejection on May 01.
The 1D MACD however has formed its 2nd straight Bullish Cross and last time that took place was on January 04 2024, right after the pair's bottom from the 2023 Bearish Leg.
As a result, we treat the current levels as the most optimal long-term buy opportunity for the year, targeting again a potential 1W MA200 contact at 0.90500.
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USDCHF Strong long-term bullish wave expected.The USDCHF pair followed almost perfectly our projected course last time we made an analysis on it (June 20, see chart below), as after a 1.5 Fibonacci rebound, it resumed the downtrend and hit our 0.8700 Target:
Having completed a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, on the same level as the January 04 2024 one, we view the recent rebound as the start of the new Bullish Leg towards the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
As you can see, we've been basically within a wide but sideways structure for more than one year and the symmetry between the October - December 2023 Leg is very high with May - August 2024. Even the 1D MACD patterns are very similar.
As a result, we turn bullish on USDCHF again on a 0.9100 Target, just below the 1W MA200, which is the technical long-term Resistance.
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USDCHF Sell opportunity on perfect symmetry.The USDCHF pair broke this week below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the firs time since March 14 and is extending a downtrend that started on the May 01 2024 Top, a rejection on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
The last time we had a similar (near) rejection was on the October 03 2023 Top, which also initiated a downtrend. That structure targeted the 1.5 and 2.5 Fibonacci extension levels in succession.
With the 1D RSI sequences among the two fractals showing tight symmetry, we see now the final sell opportunity to target the 2.5 Fib. Our Target is at 0.87000 (within Support 1 and Fib 2.5).
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USDCHF Channel Up intact. Aim higher.The USDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the December 28 2023 Low. In the past 2 weeks, it has been forming its 2nd Bearish Leg that almost touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been supporting since February 02.
As long as we close 1D candles above it, we stay bullish, targeting 0.94200 (marginally below Resistance 2). Since however the recent Higher High was priced just below Resistance 1 (the October 03 2023 High), we will turn bearish (and take the buy's loss) if the pair closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is what happened on November 14 2023. In that case, our Target will be 0.87350 (Support 1).
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USDCHF Struggling on the 1W MA50. Long-term bullish above it.The USDCHF pair is on very critical crossroads as for the past 5 weeks it has been testing the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but has so far failed to close a 1W candle above it. Going back to late September 2023, we can see that the 1W MA50 has been again tested for successive weeks, but again failed to close a candle above it. In fact the last time it did was back on the week of October 31 2022, which was during the previous Top on the Lower Highs trend-line of the 8-year Bearish Megaphone pattern.
As a result, as long as the pair fails to close that weekly candle above the 1W MA50, we 'have' to stay bearish on the medium-term, targeting just above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8500.
If however we do get that 1W closing above the 1W MA50 delivered, we will turn bullish long-term, despite the presence of the Inner Lower Highs and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), as in early 2021, and target the top of the Bearish Megaphone at 0.97000.
Notice that this scenario attracts stronger probabilities as the 1W RSI has been on a Bullish Divergence from oversold territory since the December 25 2023 Low. This Divergence is similar to the bottom formed on the January 04 2021 candle.
Observe also how efficiently the Sine Waves have grasped the Tops and Bottoms of this Bearish Megaphone. Right now they show we are on a bottom formation.
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